Group Breaks Valuation and the hobby

[mschoeneman]

For the last few days I have found myself watching multiple case breaks of 2023 Topps Five Star on the Fanatics App. As you would expect, the breakers go nuts on every hit in the break. My question is this, let’s say they pull a Mike Trout autograph numbered to 25. 15 years from now when Mike Trout is in the Hall of Fame will this card sell for more than it would today?

My assumption is that buying into group breaks has far worse odds than casino gambling. Am I wrong?