Will any modern card outlast vintage prices?

[Mister2Bits]

Originally Posted by dashcol

This is a good write up, I enjoyed reading it, thank you.

Its a fascinating topic and I love statistics.

Originally Posted by dashcol

I don’t want to compare basketball to baseball though, BK fans are insane sometimes and are normally the ones to pay insane price (look at Caitlyn Clark RC). BB almost seams SLIGHTLY more cautious.

I only brought up PMG's because they are condition sensitive, high pedigree and historically tough pulls in a high print environment.

A non parallel equivalent would maybe be the 93 SP Authentic Jeter in a PSA 10 which is around a $200k card but again the drop off from a 10 to a 9 is significant because of the amount of cards in existence. For modern Black parallels, 8s and 9s are still valuable because there are only 60-70 copies available regardless of condition.

Originally Posted by dashcol

The grading skew is a good point. However, there was a time where Randy Arozarena PSA 10 base cards were near $100, but now are nothing.

More because of Randy Arozarena than anything else. However, there are 4x as many 2020 Update cards per player than there was in 2011 Update. At 200k+ cards per player, it takes Ohtani/Judge like popularity to gain more value. You should look at what Randy Arozarena PSA 9's look like now.

Originally Posted by dashcol

There is something to say about career ending injuries in vintage not being a concern, but how many of these players are really on the same level as Ruth/Mantle/Robinson? Ohtani is a rarity.

Ohtani is a rarity. Followed closely by Judge. And yes, I do believe they are just as good (if not better) than both Ruth & Mantle. Time will tell.

Originally Posted by dashcol

But what about the people paying crazy prices for Nick Kurtz? Where is his ceiling honestly? David Parker? That means his cards should be equivalent to a 1974 PSA 8 (which is NM), those sell for $300. So, that should be a Nick Kurtz ceiling, not the $1600 that a PSA 10 BCA Nick Kurtz did on 7/26/25. What is that person really thinking they would gain from spending $1600 today on that card?

This is just speculative investing and it's repeated every single year with XX player. However, being the 1st to do something does have importance. The 1st Rookie to hit 4 HRs in a game is a feat not likely to be repeated. However, as time goes on, if he doesn't keep up, this stat will slowly simmer away along with his collectability.

Ohtani is a GLOBAL superstar. Not just for his play on the field, but also his personality and marketability shift him into another category all together. Judge has this in spades too.