First Buzz: 2018 Topps Star Wars Stellar Signatures trading cards

[ForceChange77]

Good god

[Ty Hope]

As long as Topps can claim even 0.000001% odds, there is no case against them. Unfortunately.

[Vargaman]

Originally Posted by Ty Hope

As long as Topps can claim even 0.000001% odds, there is no case against them. Unfortunately.

Legal case? true. as I've said like 10 times now Topps never had an obligation to pack out the Ford's as long as each box meets the 1/1 guarantee. But there's also zero reason to have held back any 1/1 cards as they're all slabbed and in a super protected box.

However, it will seriously burn them as far as public opinion.

The amount of things Topps does wrong or poorly that could easily be changed to gain more sales is astounding.

I mean think of how many more TPM 20th sets they could've sold at Celebration this year or how they only did like /99 or /50 on all the promo cards and gave away all 5 days on day 1, which again would've gotten them more sales to get those cards. And this is one simple thing at one convention.

Or the fact we haven't heard anything on R1 or Solo or TLJ 3D WV sets when people are ready to throw money at Topps is crazy.

[Vargaman]

Still 4 different 1/1s with none of the 3 colors hit:
Harrison Ford as Han Solo
Laura Dern as Vice Admiral Amilyn Holdo
Jeremy Bulloch & Temuera Morrison
Caroline Blakiston & Genevieve O'Reilly

There's 53 out of 153 1/1s left.

[Rootleaf]

I picked up my 2018 Stellar green parallel set of new signers from the framing shop today. I think I'll do this every year as long as Houdini keeps hosting the breaks.

Thanks to everyone that traded/sold to me. And especially to Houdini for hosting the breaks.

[jdhaugh11]

Originally Posted by Rootleaf

I picked up my 2018 Stellar green parallel set of new signers from the framing shop today. I think I'll do this every year as long as Houdini keeps hosting the breaks.

Thanks to everyone that traded/sold to me. And especially to Houdini for hosting the breaks.

I am "green" with envy!

[Madoka]

[Vargaman]

Originally Posted by houdini

I have 2 more on the way and 7 more but at slightly more than $4k.

That will be 43 total of the 100. Plus 20-some in 2017.


That wipes out BO and another distributor I think.

I know 37/38 just finished and took a bit to do so, but will 39 be up soon? Listing single cases may keep them rolling.

Were 37/38 part of those 7 cases?

[ForceChange77]

I would like to know the odds of not hitting any of these 1/1:
Harrison Ford as Han Solo
Laura Dern as Vice Admiral Amilyn Holdo
Jeremy Bulloch & Temuera Morrison
Caroline Blakiston & Genevieve O'Reilly

Seems nearly impossible. Also would like to know what happened to the Mendelsohn Stellar 2 shown at the cons.

[Vargaman]

Originally Posted by ForceChange77

I would like to know the odds of not hitting any of these 1/1:
Harrison Ford as Han Solo
Laura Dern as Vice Admiral Amilyn Holdo
Jeremy Bulloch & Temuera Morrison
Caroline Blakiston & Genevieve O'Reilly

Seems nearly impossible. Also would like to know what happened to the Mendelsohn Stellar 2 shown at the cons.

The duals and Dern arent even near the Ford value so that's just weird in general.

But yeah it's very low that none of those 12 showed up yet.

It's clear Topps doesnt want people knowing a person they can reach out to and Mark is authentics now so he can hide again.

I dont remember the bald guys name who works for Topps and deals with a lot of product lines. Hes the one who told me at 2017 celebration that stellar was even happening.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

star wars hit tracker spreadsheet
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...t?usp=drivesdk

[ForceChange77]

Well Houdini hit a Reubens 1/1 in his last case. Not sure the color - based on your sheet it has to be the red.

[Vargaman]

Originally Posted by ForceChange77

Well Houdini hit a Reubens 1/1 in his last case. Not sure the color - based on your sheet it has to be the red.

I have so many people who say a 1/1 is hit and dont look at the color. If you see the break theres photos and those show colors lol.

It was orange, I already marked it this morning.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

star wars hit tracker spreadsheet
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...t?usp=drivesdk

[ForceChange77]

Not watching the breaks, just looking at the hit sheet. He doesn't post pictures anymore beyond the big hits. Sorry.

[Vargaman]

Originally Posted by ForceChange77

Not watching the breaks, just looking at the hit sheet. He doesn't post pictures anymore beyond the big hits. Sorry.

It was in his photo, that's how I saw it. Houdini always puts photos of the 1/1 cards, regardless of how low-end they are.

[ForceChange77]

Well, I am an idiot and missed the photo. Carry on.

[ForceChange77]

Well my post was prophetic. Red reubens hit along with the Taylor gray red
Orange felicity as well. Some other stuff

[Vargaman]

Originally Posted by ForceChange77

Well my post was prophetic. Red reubens hit along with the Taylor gray red
Orange felicity as well. Some other stuff

Nice. Just like Ahsoka back to back we had back to back Reubens as well.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

star wars hit tracker spreadsheet
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...t?usp=drivesdk

[KhalDrogo]

One box to go...

[Vargaman]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

One box to go...

Hoping for another 2 fer box versus just a single 1/1.

These are the only autos not locked out (aka all 3 colors pulled)

Alan Tudyk as K-2SO
Andy Serkis as Supreme Leader Snoke
Ashley Eckstein as Ahsoka Tano
Billy Dee Williams as Lando Calrissian
Brian Herring as BB-8
Caroline Blakiston as Mon Mothma
Daisy Ridley as Rey
Guy Henry as Grand Moff Tarkin
Harrison Ford as Han Solo
Jason Isaacs as The Grand Inquisitor
Jeremy Bulloch as Boba Fett
Jimmy Vee as R2-D2
Joonas Suotamo as Chewbacca
Kenny Baker as R2-D2
Laura Dern as Vice Admiral Amilyn Holdo
Mads Mikkelsen as Galen Erso
Ray Park as Darth Maul
Taylor Gray as Ezra Bridger
Tim Curry as Chancellor Palpatine

Jeremy Bulloch & Temuera Morrison
Caroline Blakiston & Genevieve O'Reilly
Ian McDiarmid & Ray Park
Hayden Christensen & Matthew Wood
Genevieve O'Reilly & Ian McElhinney
Stephen Stanton & Sam Witwer
Joonas Suotamo & Jimmy Vee
Jeremy Bulloch & David Barclay
Billy Dee Williams & Mike Quinn

Felicity Jones as Jyn Erso (Poncho)
Paul Bettany as Dryden Vos (Tuxedo Dress Shirt)
John Boyega as Finn (First Order Uniform)

Remaining 1/1s
Single (102 total) 27
Dual (42 total) 16
Relic (9 total) 3
Total Remaining 46 /153

[houdini]

37/38



39



40



41 (Daniels is Gold /5)



42



43

[ForceChange77]

Math cannot be denied. the chances of whole cards like Ford and Dern(?) not showing up at all is just sick odds.

[KhalDrogo]

For the sake of the argument, let's say we've accounted for every single 1/1 that has been hit, and that three 1/1 exist for every card.

Since there may be more than 1/1 in each box, you have to calculate the probability when encountering a 1/1, not opening a box.

So the first 1/1 you encounter, there is a 150/153 (98.03%) chance that you do not hit a Ford. When we hit the Ray Park orange as the last 1/1, there was a 42/45 (93.33%) chance that we would not hit a Ford.

Multiplying all of the probabilities along the way gives you a 2.26% chance that you would not hit a Ford after finding 109 of them. Low, but not improbable. Combining the results from 2017 Stellar would suggest that something is fishy though.

Personally, I think it's more likely that there aren't three Ford 1/1s in 2018 Stellar, and there's rather just one of them in existence. I don't think Topps is stupid enough to not pack any of them out after the attention was already created following 2017 Stellar.

[Vargaman]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

For the sake of the argument, let's say we've accounted for every single 1/1 that has been hit, and that three 1/1 exist for every card.

Since there may be more than 1/1 in each box, you have to calculate the probability when encountering a 1/1, not opening a box.

So the first 1/1 you encounter, there is a 150/153 (98.03%) chance that you do not hit a Ford. When we hit the Ray Park orange as the last 1/1, there was a 42/45 (93.33%) chance that we would not hit a Ford.

Multiplying all of the probabilities along the way gives you a 2.26% chance that you would not hit a Ford after finding 109 of them. Low, but not improbable. Combining the results from 2017 Stellar would suggest that something is fishy though.

Personally, I think it's more likely that there aren't three Ford 1/1s in 2018 Stellar, and there's rather just one of them in existence. I don't think Topps is stupid enough to not pack any of them out after the attention was already created following 2017 Stellar.

It also doesn't help that Topps doesn't number the boxes at all. Going forward the best way to track would be the sketches, except some may never see ebay either and not every case is broken online :/

And yes, they could get away only packing out 1 Ford to meet the 1/1 required per box and advertised card for the set.

All I know is I'll never buy sealed product from them again. I haven't in the past few years simply due to declining values and easier to get what I want on eBay for the price of a box where a majority are trash cards I have no use for.

[jdhaugh11]

Also to keep in mind for 2018 Stellar, the boxes that have 2 1/1's in them would have 0% chance of having a Ford 1/1 in them.
The boxes with 2 1/1's usually had 1 low end person and 1 mid level signer or dual or relic 1/1.

Of course all boxes seem to have a 0% chance of Ford, like we have stated a 1,000 times!

[dd316]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I don't think Topps is stupid enough to not pack any of them out after the attention was already created following 2017 Stellar.

The attention in 2017 Stellar didn't stop 2018 from selling out. People will buy anything, no matter what.