Ronald Acuña

[senorlaverga]

Originally Posted by Soxfanguy

I'm curious to hear what you mean

Yeah man. I took trig in 1992. I haven't heard terms like that in a while. What it do?

[Soxfanguy]

Originally Posted by senorlaverga

Yeah man. I took trig in 1992. I haven't heard terms like that in a while. What it do?

I think bayesian is a related to a economist but otherwise I'm lost

[senorlaverga]

Originally Posted by Soxfanguy

I think bayesian is a related to a economist but otherwise I'm lost

I just tried to watch a video explaining Bayesian statistics. Now my head is broken.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by Soxfanguy

I'm curious to hear what you mean

"Winners curse" is fun reading if you are interested... came out of academic/commercial research into oil/gas companies bidding for fields in the 50s/60s... they had high loss rates, even though they were investing in the best experts to price bids in auctions that had similar style as eBay. Everyone wanted to understand why that occurred.

It essentially helps sets bid price you put in based on your assumptions about future value and number of bidders. The simplest takeaway: the more bidders, the more you should discount your bid, otherwise you run the risk of outbidding the next highest bidder, but unprofitably ("winners curse").

Then the bayesian math came later and it is used by folks who bid in high stakes auctions (think beyond even mineral rights, to things like wireless spectrum) and relates to the "chained game theory" around number of similar auctions going on, prior similar auction results, number of participants, your beliefs around bidder's needs and bidding behavior, etc.

Simplest way to apply bayesian updating applied to auctions, is: can you identify a few common auction situations, and type of outcomes ("dominant") that result in them. This way you don't have to be dynamic (other bayesian auction strategy doesn't assume a "dominant strategy", but rather try to optimize as more information becomes available... I'd guess too hard for us to use here, practically).

So, for instance, some common auction situations I notice:
-- multiple of same card being auctioned in close time proximity
-- multiple high end cards of the same player (but different cards) being auctioned in close time proximity
-- time of day / week an auction ends
-- type of bidders who have already bid vs. patterns in prior recent auctions

All those have some common outcomes, and causes me to behave differently. For instance, if I NEED a card... you might say, lets just put in a super high bid that will certainly win. But... the end result of that can be very different prices in different setups from the above list. So I check myself, and ask... is this likely to be a scenario where I pay top $$$$ for it, or one where my bid is likely to be 2-3x the 2nd bid. I generally have some remorse when I just win on a super high $$$$ NEED scenario. And don't want that to happen too often.

[Soxfanguy]

Originally Posted by pewe

"Winners curse" is fun reading if you are interested... came out of academic/commercial research into oil/gas companies bidding for fields in the 50s/60s... they had high loss rates, even though they were investing in the best experts to price bids in auctions that had similar style as eBay. Everyone wanted to understand why that occurred.

It essentially helps sets bid price you put in based on your assumptions about future value and number of bidders. The simplest takeaway: the more bidders, the more you should discount your bid, otherwise you run the risk of outbidding the next highest bidder, but unprofitably ("winners curse").

Then the bayesian math came later and it is used by folks who bid in high stakes auctions (think beyond even mineral rights, to things like wireless spectrum) and relates to the "chained game theory" around number of similar auctions going on, prior similar auction results, number of participants, your beliefs around bidder's needs and bidding behavior, etc.

Don't you still run the risk of outbidding with one other person? Why does multiple bidders make it different?

Edit: The severity of the winner's curse increases with the number of bidders. This is because the more bidders, the more likely it is that some of them have overestimated the auctioned item's value. In technical terms, the winner's expected estimate is the value of the nth order statistic, which increases as the number of bidders increases. In other words, more bidders = higher winner's curse.

Makes sense

[Soxfanguy]

I still don't get chained game theory

[senorlaverga]

Ok I just read some dumbed-down version of winner's curse. Basically, it's what we all know or have experienced - given lack of information and true intrinsic value, people will overbid due to emotion and other influences, and later realize they overpaid.

Am I understanding that correctly? Pretend a 4th grader asked you this.

[Soxfanguy]

I was not expecting college level economics in a Ronald Acuna thread today but it was neat to learn the stuff

[pewe]

Originally Posted by senorlaverga

Ok I just read some dumbed-down version of winner's curse. Basically, it's what we all know or have experienced - given lack of information and true intrinsic value, people will overbid due to emotion and other influences, and later realize they overpaid.

Am I understanding that correctly? Pretend a 4th grader asked you this.

"Overpaid" is kind of a loaded term here... in the case of oil/gas, it might mean you had the most optimistic assessment of how much oil/gas you might get out of the ground... but that may mean you overestimated, and thus don't extract enough to make your $$ back. This is why folks in commercial real estate, private equity, etc. will often talk about how good they are at getting "proprietary deals". I.e., they ideally don't buy in an auction for a business, but instead are the only one setting the deal terms. This is kind of like the BST forum here on BO.

A way to think about it... my son and I decided to PC Rafael Devers last spring. For a long time we were one of the only ones trumpeting his horn in the BO Devers channel. But slowly we had some others join the hunt for his high end cards.

I noticed that if one of those folks came into an auction I was bidding on the ending price would be much higher.

BTW we were seeing the way prices go up for a card, in actual terms. I.e., our auction then sets a new base on which others reference.

Well as a buyer, I certainly don't want to drive up the prices on cards I'm buying, so except in very rare cases on the rarest cards, I really decreased my max bid. So even if I didn't win this auction, when someone had a best offer price out there I could refer to that auction to get the price I want to pay from the best offer person.

[Soxfanguy]

Originally Posted by pewe

"Overpaid" is kind of a loaded term here... in the case of oil/gas, it might mean you had the most optimistic assessment of how much oil/gas you might get out of the ground... but that may mean you overestimated, and thus don't extract enough to make your $$ back. This is why folks in commercial real estate, private equity, etc. will often talk about how good they are at getting "proprietary deals". I.e., they ideally don't buy in an auction for a business, but instead are the only one setting the deal terms. This is kind of like the BST forum here on BO.

A way to think about it... my son and I decided to PC Rafael Devers last spring. For a long time we were one of the only ones trumpeting his horn in the BO Devers channel. But slowly we had some others join the hunt for his high end cards.

I noticed that if one of those folks came into an auction I was bidding on, the ending price would be much higher.

BTW we were seeing the way prices go up for a card, in actual terms. I.e., our auction then sets a new base on which others reference.

Well as a buyer, I certainly don't want to drive up the prices on cards I'm buying, so except in very rare cases on the rarest cards, I really decreased my max bid. So even if I didn't win this auction, when someone had a best offer price out there I could refer to that auction to get the price I want to pay from the best offer person.

That makes sense, thanks for explaining

BTW, do you have a degree in economics or something? You seem to have a advanced knowledge of it

[pewe]

Originally Posted by Soxfanguy

I still don't get chained game theory

In the case of auctions, it essentially assumes that the information available is constantly changing. And based on the most recent thing you learn, does it change your strategy.

For instance, Khal and I spotted the Acuna 2018 factory set foilboard earlier in the year. We both assumed we were the one of the only ones who knew (neither of us talked about it, but this is what we found after the fact), and that set a target price we were both willing to bid. But then, of course, someone decided to point it out on the Acuna board. That forced me to raise my price expectation for the card, as I realized it would be more popular so could support a higher bid.

I decided to decline bidding, in the end, though, given it got so frothy I assumed the winning bid would be >$1K. AND IT WASN'T! Why? Well, too many people probably assumed like I did that it would be out of reach, and why bid. Whoops!

[Rjackd11]

And here I thought “Bayesian” was just him being punny about eBAY. :-)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[pewe]

Originally Posted by Soxfanguy

That makes sense, thanks for explaining

BTW, do you have a degree in economics or something? You seem to have a advanced knowledge of it

Haha! I have an unhealthy interest in applied math and analytics... baseball with all its statistics and the market for baseball cards around it is fun for someone like me

And I enjoy reading and thinking about what is likely to shape the future of our economy and business in general. For instance, a friend sent this fun read to me over the weekend: https://www.collaborativefund.com/bl...ing-the-world/

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by pewe

In the case of auctions, it essentially assumes that the information available is constantly changing. And based on the most recent thing you learn, does it change your strategy.

For instance, Khal and I spotted the Acuna 2018 factory set foilboard earlier in the year. We both assumed we were the one of the only ones who knew (neither of us talked about it, but this is what we found after the fact), and that set a target price we were both willing to bid. But then, of course, someone decided to point it out on the Acuna board. That forced me to raise my price expectation for the card, as I realized it would be more popular so could support a higher bid.

I decided to decline bidding, in the end, though, given it got so frothy I assumed the winning bid would be >$1K. AND IT WASN'T! Why? Well, too many people probably assumed like I did that it would be out of reach, and why bid. Whoops!

Yes!!!

[HarryLime]

Originally Posted by pewe

"Overpaid" is kind of a loaded term here... in the case of oil/gas, it might mean you had the most optimistic assessment of how much oil/gas you might get out of the ground... but that may mean you overestimated, and thus don't extract enough to make your $$ back. This is why folks in commercial real estate, private equity, etc. will often talk about how good they are at getting "proprietary deals". I.e., they ideally don't buy in an auction for a business, but instead are the only one setting the deal terms. This is kind of like the BST forum here on BO.

A way to think about it... my son and I decided to PC Rafael Devers last spring. For a long time we were one of the only ones trumpeting his horn in the BO Devers channel. But slowly we had some others join the hunt for his high end cards.

I noticed that if one of those folks came into an auction I was bidding on the ending price would be much higher.

BTW we were seeing the way prices go up for a card, in actual terms. I.e., our auction then sets a new base on which others reference.

Well as a buyer, I certainly don't want to drive up the prices on cards I'm buying, so except in very rare cases on the rarest cards, I really decreased my max bid. So even if I didn't win this auction, when someone had a best offer price out there I could refer to that auction to get the price I want to pay from the best offer person.

Another variation of this is what I'm doing with a particular unopened product that I'm buying to accumulate and leave sealed. There are boxes on eBay with BINs that are easily at my price point but I'm not buying them in order to create a false ceiling. When something comes to auction or when people price their BINs, potential buyers and sellers will check what's listed on eBay at the moment to gauge "value."

If there's a box up with a BIN of $200, bidders in any future auction aren't going to bid more than $200 because they could just hit the BIN on that box. They'll think, "if the box was "worth" $200, it wouldn't be available on eBay right now." But if I buy that $200 box and now the lowest BIN on eBay is $220, I've pushed up that ceiling for future auctions.

Same thing with sellers pricing their BINs. Some want to actually move their product fast and will look to be the lowest priced product on eBay. Again, if I buy the $200 box and now the lowest BIN is $220, the ceiling has been bumped up.

It's all about discipline. Trusting that another box will get listed and you'll be able to get it lower than $200. It works.

Arthur

[pewe]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

Another variation of this is what I'm doing with a particular unopened product that I'm buying to accumulate and leave sealed. There are boxes on eBay with BINs that are easily at my price point but I'm not buying them in order to create a false ceiling. When something comes to auction or when people price their BINs, potential buyers and sellers will check what's listed on eBay at the moment to gauge "value."

If there's a box up with a BIN of $200, bidders in any future auction aren't going to bid more than $200 because they could just hit the BIN on that box. They'll think, "if the box was "worth" $200, it wouldn't be available on eBay right now." But if I buy that $200 box and now the lowest BIN on eBay is $220, I've pushed up that ceiling for future auctions.

Same thing with sellers pricing their BINs. Some want to actually move their product fast and will look to be the lowest priced product on eBay. Again, if I buy the $200 box and now the lowest BIN is $220, the ceiling has been bumped up.

It's all about discipline. Trusting that another box will get listed and you'll be able to get it lower than $200. It works.

Arthur

Yes! This is another good example, with a similar effect... a strategy I've used, too

Always take the auction, first, over the BIN, if available

[pewe]

BTW for those who continue to be interested in these decision strategies... what we are discussing right now is something called "pricing discipline"

Essentially in most markets a price war destroys value for someone. So if you are on the side of destroyed value, you'd prefer to have discipline whenever possible.

[Melagoo]

... I grabbed a box of 2018 HI Number Heritage ...

[pewe]

Originally Posted by Melagoo

... I grabbed a box of 2018 HI Number Heritage ...

Wait... this all came from 1 box?!? WOW!!!

[LVDan]

Man, card market analysis has really gone advanced.
Super old school here, if it feels like a good price, I buy it.
If I start to struggle maybe I’ll ask for some consulting help.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Soxfanguy]

Originally Posted by LVDan

Man, card market analysis has really gone advanced.
Super old school here, if it feels like a good price, I buy it.
If I start to struggle maybe I’ll ask for some consulting help.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It's like Moneyball for cards

[chris_ac]

I just saw he’s on the cover of Beckett SCM. I know Beckett is a waste of paper product these days, but him on the cover of the multi-sport mag is yet more exposure to those card guys who never visit forums lol Bigger problem is the caption of the 40/40 club on the cover which he did not achieve. I hate lying propaganda. Stick to the things he has done. I know, I know, it’s just hype...

[Melagoo]

Originally Posted by pewe

Wait... this all came from 1 box?!? WOW!!!

all in one box ... Hobby box from my LCS ...

[pewe]

Originally Posted by LVDan

Man, card market analysis has really gone advanced.
Super old school here, if it feels like a good price, I buy it.
If I start to struggle maybe I’ll ask for some consulting help.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

haha! I can completely understand

I guess for me this work is it is part of the fun / hobby of it: did I get a "good deal"

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by pewe

haha! I can completely understand

I guess for me this work is it is part of the fun / hobby of it: did I get a "good deal"

No doubt... I enjoy the analysis too. You guys take it to another (couple) levels.
Luckily, like a bettor who focuses on sun belt or MAC conference, not nearly the attention or thought given to most of the bums I buy. For now, at least.