Markets are trending down - But how far and for how long?

[premium1981]

This moment in time has been discussed in multiple threads, but it appears as if the hobby market has officially began trending down recently. I do not base this off of any pumps, dumps, or single player trends. But it is across the board. Some may remain in denial and try to argue, but I personally think it is pretty clear.

So now that we are here, what happens? I have maintained the mindset that we will see a deflating of the "bubble" but that we will not see a pop/crash. I think prices went too high and were not sustainable. How much more of a market correction does everyone see coming? I think we continue to see some more declining, but a slowing pace. We will revert back to "normal pre-covid" type markets which were still great. I think retail will begin to show back up later in the year as the shoe-peeps move on to their next hot market.

Another prediction is wax saturation coming from the hobby cooling and Topps cranking the presses. Topps seems to lag behind the markets so I think it will take a few quarters of releases for them to realize the demand has pulled back some.

Interesting to say the least. I love watching the hobby trends and trying to stay ahead of the curve. But we have never seen anything like this before so it's new to all of us.

[SGC300ier]

It is going to be interesting. I see a lot of people that were spending good money on 2nd and 3rd year cards of players are about to lose their shirts....

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[Nung2019]

Stimulus money, people working from home, no traveling, a lot of factors led to people getting into cards. Now that things are getting back to normal, people are reverting their funds back to what they were before. It will settle back in, just like everything else

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by Nung2019

Stimulus money, people working from home, no traveling, a lot of factors led to people getting into cards. Now that things are getting back to normal, people are reverting their funds back to what they were before. It will settle back in, just like everything else

Yes - what happened was certainly not specific to cards.

But we learned a lot about the hobby and the people in it...even the people who only stayed in it temporarily to try to make a buck off of it.

A good time was not had by all, and I’m glad it’s about to end/it’s over.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

The market is definitely been trending down, especially base cards of top guys. Some high end stuff has managed to hold steady, but even high grade Jordan RCs have taken a dive. The big modern three in baseball have all seen their lower end stuff dip. On top of all the “getting back to normal life, and diverting funds” reasons which are a major factor, I always felt the 2020 prices weren’t sustainable because whenever a card like US300 PSA 10 would hit a new high, someone would post a picture of their stack of 50, or mention how they had 30 at PSA waiting to be graded. When you look at a prospect like Jasson, his prices started in the 2020 boom, and I think regardless of how he actually performs on the field, a lot of people are going to lose money on him.

How long will this last? For a few players it won’t be long. I think the AL/NL MVP winners will see a bump, any World Series heroes could see a bump. But overall, I think the slide lasts until spring training next year... and I don’t think we see a boom like 2020 again for a long time.

[cj828282]

I look forward to the days of Bowman megas sitting on the shelves for weeks.

[Raleigh504]

I agree, prices are coming back down to reality on an overall basis. I think it will level off in the summer and then get back up after people have done their traveling for the summer. Not saying it will return back to what it was before, but it will go back up when baseball is getting closer to the playoffs, NFL is starting back up and the NBA is getting back into full swing.

I do see more people staying in the hobby, but pulling back on spending since they now can do more with their money.

What I am really curious to see is the grading market, if prices have gone back to reality and when BGS/PSA open back up, what will their prices be? They can almost shoot themselves in the foot if we see less people in the market/prices going down to normal that it wouldn't make sense to grade a card for $x amount and have no chance of getting anything out of it.

[Hoopscardz83]

It has been a domino effect. People haven't left just yet. Singles have been crashing, people have been burned listening to investors on social media or youtube. Wax prices will be the true indicator, and so far people have still been buying off the secondary market at crazy prices.

[Nung2019]

Don’t y’all think we will see a new and improved grading company come into existence? There is too much money to be made, I can see someone new coming to market, with a bigger better attitude

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

How long will this last? For a few players it won’t be long. I think the AL/NL MVP winners will see a bump, any World Series heroes could see a bump. But overall, I think the slide lasts until spring training next year... and I don’t think we see a boom like 2020 again for a long time.

If Acuna flirts with a 40/40 season, price bump
If Ohtani stays healthy and does something that hasn't happened in a very long time, price bump

I would even add if there is a hot streak of a player in June/July hitting more HR than normal and leading the league then we can see some bump in prices.

Once retail is sitting back on the shelves like old times then I would say we are back to normal

[Hoopscardz83]

Originally Posted by Nung2019

Don’t y’all think we will see a new and improved grading company come into existence? There is too much money to be made, I can see someone new coming to market, with a bigger better attitude

I felt there have been new ones coming out everyday. I just can't see anyone taking out the big 2.

[goin3d]

looking at all the price trends/graphs (market movers), i've started another round of buying on solid graded singles i've been eyeing for months. sure, a lot is declining but still positive over the last 365 days.

I think wax is where the real shock is coming. the price of wax to start the 2021 season was crazy high and needed to correct anyway to keep folks in the hobby.

[GatorPie]

Sigh. If only I knew, I could have sold off my entire collection in February and bought it all back now at 50% (or less) of the price.

[allabtsprt]

Anyone who has been in this hobby for a long time already knew what to expect. People have been telling everyone about it since the boom started, but half the people don't want to believe it. The massive over production of cards began after the 18-19 season. If you have unopened wax from that year or earlier, you will be in good shape in the future. Anything after that, SELL NOW if not too late.

[BaseballKing]

We are currently in a classic boom/bust cycle imo. I do not doubt the long term viability of the hobby - save for the commencement of global armed conflict which would render most collectibles nigh on worthless. You can't eat sportscards nor kill someone with them.

The hobby was ticking along nicely until covid enforced lockdowns put never before seen levels of exposure on the hobby. Investors flocked in their droves, stimulus money poured in and a little party commenced. Now for the reality check. As I see it many modern nba cards are down by as much as 50-80% since late last year. I know this because I own some of them and I watch the prices fairly closely. I feel the NBA market is down more then any of the others because it went up the highest and the fastest of any of the sports. That is going to take a fair time to climb back up again but it will climb back up.I'm certain of that. However, it would be disingenuous to suggest that this is simply business as usual with normal cyclical movements. It's not imo. But neither is this the sign of a junk era like bust of the 90's. I sincerely doubt that will ever happen again. The two eras are completely different.

In short, if we are not hurling nuclear missiles at each other in 12 months' time everything will be just fine.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

If Acuna flirts with a 40/40 season, price bump
If Ohtani stays healthy and does something that hasn't happened in a very long time, price bump

I would even add if there is a hot streak of a player in June/July hitting more HR than normal and leading the league then we can see some bump in prices.

Once retail is sitting back on the shelves like old times then I would say we are back to normal

I agree with you on Acuña and Ohtani, but right now, it’s to see any kind of serious bump for a June/July hit streak. Unless we’re talking about a previously unknown player whose cards go from $1 to $7 (seeing a 700% bump).

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by Nung2019

Don’t y’all think we will see a new and improved grading company come into existence? There is too much money to be made, I can see someone new coming to market, with a bigger better attitude

No, not really. It’s bad time for any new grading company to start up. With prices falling, if/when I do buy graded, it would only be PSA or BGS (at a discount). As a buyer, I wouldn’t waste any money on card from a grading company that will be out of business soon.

[IlliniBear]

The high end cards have certainly crashed (MJ/LeBron Rookies, etc.). The other lower end charts I've seen show a downward descent but nothing resembling a crash.

It's quite possible the illiquidity of the lower end sports card market simply isn't going to result in a crash but rather a gradual decline that will reflect the insane pop counts on these cards. I think the very high end, limited quantity cards will still hold significant value but the ultramodern high print run base cards are going to revert to $10 or $20.

I personally have never sold a trading card. I haven't had the motivation to send in a grading order yet (I've got them set aside but never shipped them in). I know there are guys hustling buying and selling but I think those guys are outnumbered by the people ripping wax and holding their singles. It's all those unsold singles that are sitting in boxes that will destroy the resale value of those cards.

I'm not sure where the bottom is, I think that it's probably going to trend down for a while as casual collectors start to leave the hobby. I for one will continue to buy and rip retail wax but I think my desire for singles going forward is going to be minimal outside of buying SP or refractor rookie cards if prices get reasonable.

[CKIM]

Am I the only one noticing correlation trading card prices with bitcoin? They both seemed to have peaked (temporarily) in Jan/Feb '21 and now both down 40-50% down from peak. So perhaps we should ask when is bitcoin roaring back again from the abyss?

[BaseballKing]

Originally Posted by IlliniBear

The high end cards have certainly crashed (MJ/LeBron Rookies, etc.). The other lower end charts I've seen show a downward descent but nothing resembling a crash.

It's quite possible the illiquidity of the lower end sports card market simply isn't going to result in a crash but rather a gradual decline that will reflect the insane pop counts on these cards. I think the very high end, limited quantity cards will still hold significant value but the ultramodern high print run base cards are going to revert to $10 or $20.

I personally have never sold a trading card. I haven't had the motivation to send in a grading order yet (I've got them set aside but never shipped them in). I know there are guys hustling buying and selling but I think those guys are outnumbered by the people ripping wax and holding their singles. It's all those unsold singles that are sitting in boxes that will destroy the resale value of those cards.

I'm not sure where the bottom is, I think that it's probably going to trend down for a while as casual collectors start to leave the hobby. I for one will continue to buy and rip retail wax but I think my desire for singles going forward is going to be minimal outside of buying SP or refractor rookie cards if prices get reasonable.

These are of course relative to the amount of people in the hobby. I visited my LCS today and it was the busiest I've ever seen it and whist I didn't get a chance to speak with the owner I suspect they are currently thriving. I've never seen such a variety of singles, sets, and wax for sale.The place was positively buzzing.

No toploaders, though!

[pewe]

Is this correct, that prices are down? Outside Bellinger (whose cards now seem on the way back up as he looks to return from injury), all of the PC players that I’m actively buying / tracking are the same price or more expensive now than they were earlier this year.

Eg folks like Devers, Bregman, and Verdugo

And aren’t folks like Vlad and Ohtani and Tatis and Acuna up?

Which cards are down in price?


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[AnthonyT]

Between January and March, junk wax was taking off. A 1987 Topps wax box was getting near $60 when it was a $10 item all day prior to the pandemic. But I think PSA stopping submissions has a lot to do with the fall of pricing on Junk wax. Fleer basketball wax also skyrockets. 1990 peaked at $300 a box, but I am seeing them move around $120. 1989 was at $3000 and is now somewhere around $900. I dont think these prices will come back to where they were. A lot of wax has been opened in the past year, so I think there are less out there. But its hard to say just how much. Maybe there is still too much.

Before the pandemic I think an 2018 US250 Acuna PSA 10 was around $150 and went up as much as $300, but it seems to have been more consistent around $225 lately. Same with Tatis. Much will depend on whether Topps kept the print run to the same levels as pre-pandemic. Otherwise, we might expect 2020 and 2021 to reach near saturation levels (for the flagship series).

[slaughterica]

Yup, I've been noticing this as well, my stales absolutely stagnated last 2-3 weeks. Summer swoon is in full session. On top of that uncertainty in financial markets, no stimi checks, crypto crash + parents are 100% starting to get focused on September (shortage of daycares).

Sealed wax has fallen in places where I have been tracking.

Some things have still kind of went up, mostly high end stuff though or REALLY rare.

I feel like there are some amazing buys out there now though. Things will correct but winter should have a nice recovery. Not sure what the bottom will be though.



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[Biohazarddfl]

Are there retail boxes sitting around anywhere in the wild?

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[Chicharito]

Originally Posted by CKIM

Am I the only one noticing correlation trading card prices with bitcoin? They both seemed to have peaked (temporarily) in Jan/Feb '21 and now both down 40-50% down from peak. So perhaps we should ask when is bitcoin roaring back again from the abyss?

Definitely, bitcoin was free money before that crypto Gary V made the tweet, and imagine flippers/sneaker boys haven't invested into it.