Your investment-player is having a horrible year...

[daeve]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

This.

Multiple notes about the hobby:

1) big men without mvp potential that don't have point-forward aspirations are an eventual dead fish in the water

2) complimentary big men that aren't the centerpiece of a franchise are an even worse proposition

3) even one year of regression can forever tarnish their potential upside in the eyes of invesclecters


They can be fine players in reality, but dudes like Bridges/JJJ/Collins all have hard capped ceilings because none of these guys got 'next' (Top 10). I know the JJJbois pitch a semi when he has that occasional big night, but his game logs speak for themselves. Never more than a 2 game stretch of consistent, high level play.

You have to define a very realistic time frame outlook for players in this niche because after a certain point they'll be tossed in the ranks of the kardboard Aldridges, KAts, and Griffins of yesteryear...even if they do go onto be perennial all-stars.

Sabonis is 2-5x the player any of these aforementioned guys are and nobody bats a lash.

Point-fowards or die.

this is such a boring ideology - and it's wrong. Some of my biggest hobby gains = Jokic, Embiid, Porzingis, Giannis [let's face it, Kidd tried to make him a 'point-forward' but he didn't win MVP/dominate until he became Svelt Shaq] - and hell probably my best single hoop-related purchase since the start of the pandemic so far has been grabbing a 86 Prism KAJ before all those started trending way up.

If y'all only wanna pass around the same 5-6 wings, that's fine. Let us others enjoy some variety. And variety = good for the hobby, as the investment dollars get spread around instead of to the same 5-6 names. It not only is safer for all involved [diversifying], it also keeps the hobby healthier by keeping good players in the spotlight, regardless of their position.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by daeve

this is such a boring ideology - and it's wrong. Some of my biggest hobby gains = Jokic, Embiid, Porzingis, Giannis [let's face it, Kidd tried to make him a 'point-forward' but he didn't win MVP/dominate until he became Svelt Shaq] - and hell probably my best single hoop-related purchase since the start of the pandemic so far has been grabbing a 86 Prism KAJ before all those started trending way up.

If y'all only wanna pass around the same 5-6 wings, that's fine. Let us others enjoy some variety. And variety = good for the hobby, as the investment dollars get spread around instead of to the same 5-6 names. It not only is safer for all involved [diversifying], it also keeps the hobby healthier by keeping good players in the spotlight, regardless of their position.

Nice. Proud of ya.

I guess you totally missed that very clear stipulation (actually multiple times) I made about MVP/point forward potential. Of which 3 of 4 of the players you mentioned fall right into.

As per daddy Latvia neck, I hope you sold awhile back. Again, I clearly stated you have to define a timeline for players of his caliber, because he's a dime a dozen in a sea of 'pretty good' big men without MVP aspirations.

Nobody is saying you can't enjoy your plethora of players outside the exclusive list of potential all-time caliber talent, but the opie had a pretty specific inquiry and people are letting him know how the hobby generally operates to help make an informed decision.


Party on.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Nice. Proud of ya.

I guess you totally missed that very clear stipulation (actually multiple times) I made about MVP/point forward potential. Of which 3 of 4 of the players you mentioned fall right into.

As per daddy Latvia neck, I hope you sold awhile back. Again, I clearly stated you have to define a timeline for players of his caliber, because he's a dime a dozen in a sea of 'pretty good' big men without MVP aspirations.

Nobody is saying you can't enjoy your plethora of players outside the exclusive list of potential all-time caliber talent, but the opie had a pretty specific inquiry and people are letting him know how the hobby generally operates to help make an informed decision.


Party on.

I saw the MVP stip, but that's just kinda a 'gimme/duh' - I still think guys can carve nice little hobby niches without it. Amar'e was fun, he finished top 10 in MVP voting 3x, but only as high as 6th. Heck, Rodman never would've qualified for a top-dawg/MVP hobby guy, but he has his collectors out there, and I can't say I didn't enjoy scooping up some of his stuff that was unearthed during the covid closet boom. Maybe he's too much of a special clause though, but there's always guys that can be entertaining and catch the eye of the hobby for periods - Kemp certainly had a little bit of a day back in the 90s.

I did get rid of Zinger at the right time, though I can't say he's not a tempting re-buy if he continues to stay healthy and help produce W's for Dallas. I do still have my KAT stash, but at the prices I got in at, I'm not mad and I think with the renewed team defensive effort, the Wolves have a shot at making some waves this year.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by daeve

this is such a boring ideology - and it's wrong. Some of my biggest hobby gains = Jokic, Embiid, Porzingis, Giannis [let's face it, Kidd tried to make him a 'point-forward' but he didn't win MVP/dominate until he became Svelt Shaq] - and hell probably my best single hoop-related purchase since the start of the pandemic so far has been grabbing a 86 Prism KAJ before all those started trending way up.

If y'all only wanna pass around the same 5-6 wings, that's fine. Let us others enjoy some variety. And variety = good for the hobby, as the investment dollars get spread around instead of to the same 5-6 names. It not only is safer for all involved [diversifying], it also keeps the hobby healthier by keeping good players in the spotlight, regardless of their position.

You would have made more if you just followed the trend and bought Jordan, Lebron, Kobe

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by daeve

I saw the MVP stip, but that's just kinda a 'gimme/duh' - I still think guys can carve nice little hobby niches without it. Amar'e was fun, he finished top 10 in MVP voting 3x, but only as high as 6th. Heck, Rodman never would've qualified for a top-dawg/MVP hobby guy, but he has his collectors out there, and I can't say I didn't enjoy scooping up some of his stuff that was unearthed during the covid closet boom. Maybe he's too much of a special clause though, but there's always guys that can be entertaining and catch the eye of the hobby for periods - Kemp certainly had a little bit of a day back in the 90s.

I did get rid of Zinger at the right time, though I can't say he's not a tempting re-buy if he continues to stay healthy and help produce W's for Dallas. I do still have my KAT stash, but at the prices I got in at, I'm not mad and I think with the renewed team defensive effort, the Wolves have a shot at making some waves this year.

Basically, I'm just trying to say it's an uphill battle for big men like this. Unless you're an absolute physical marvel in the 99th percentile like Yannis, or Pistol Pete transplanted into a 7 foot mold...it's bad long term odds. That isn't to say (as you've alluded to) that there can't be the occasional mini spikes here and there, but at some point in time the hobby eventually moves onto either better talent or the next crop of unknowns.

Despite being the antithesis of an offensive juggernaut, Rodman was still a clear HOF and the ancient precursor to a viral social media sensation in the 90's. Hard to find a larger than life personality like those that transcend sport into being a tabloid darling. Guys like Kemp were underappreciated at the time, but still regarded as iconic for their era and largely benefited from the nostalgic bump. It's tough to see any of the guys mentioned in this thread in that same regard, but crazier things have happened.

I don't think kards are necessarily an exact science, but certain ingredients come into play outside of direct numbers on a stat sheet when it comes to long term value. Most (again, most) players give a pretty good indication of the type of player they'll eventually become within the first 2-3 years.

[bloodwings19]

KPJ but...... I sold all the rare, serial-numbered KPJ cards so I'm actually up. I own a ton of KPJ Prizm base right now because they were $.99 when he was a trouble-maker with the Cavs and I'm still buying at close to $.99 (with quality) with free shipping. My mistake was keeping all the base when he was selling for around $25 each at one time and rejected an offer of over $x,xxx for all my base cards when he had a 50 point game. I could of re-invest in more KPJs. Rockets problem is the coach and rotation problem, he is only 21.

[FBSCLV]

Yes….Bazley

[rifleman69]

Dump Marvin Bagley III now.

[minnesotachill]

I've got about 20k invested into Poku. I still think he will be an all-time great

[Lankybox]

Originally Posted by messier2

Good stuff guys! I came back from lunch and really good convos going on!

No, not KPJ!

Yeah, I concluded that I'm going to be still be buying BUT VERY selective on what I buy. Rare only and must be cheap. That is all. Otherwise, I'm staying out and just hoping he gets his game on!

I think it is another lefty.. Darius Bazley

[Dame]

Damn, Cam Reddish still got people's hopes up.

[wiper]

op, kinda lame to not say who it is

[Nomad]

2020s rule: Anyone name Cam, go all in. Dame a close second. Anyone with a III or a Jr. attached, run for the hills. Hyphenated names can be gold, but exactly half the time.

[HTown281]

Originally Posted by Nomad

2020s rule: Anyone name Cam, go all in. Dame a close second. Anyone with a III or a Jr. attached, run for the hills. Hyphenated names can be gold, but exactly half the time.

lol- hopefully my Jr can pull through

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by daeve

1 - no but eventually the hobby figures out who is playing well.

2 - I think JC has much more hobby potential than Capela and slightly moreso than Hunter. He's in way more highlights than them for his dunks alone. Now that his play is backing up his highlight reel dunks, it'll just take some consistency on his part for the sport/hobby to catch on.

Playing well from a basketball standpoint rarely translates to hobby love if it's not accompanied by big box scores.

The box score watchers frequently tell me how dumb stats and analytics are and only fat nerdy white boys who can't play ball care about them. (which obviously isn't true).

I agree he has more hobby potential than Capela and maybe Hunter but I was mainly talking from a basketball perspective.

Hobby aside, what is the upside for Collins as a player?

Is he going to be a 20-10 guy that maybe flirts with 1 or 2 all-star games? Add in some solid defense and you've got an above average player that nobody in the hobby cares about.

He's never going to be the best player one a team. He's never going to be creating his own offense so his hobby potential is capped.

Like ninja said, maybe you get a random bump in his stuff but prices will just continue to go down and whatever bump may come in the future won't be enough to actually turn a profit with the exception of maybe a few high end cards

[kyle121592]

Has to be MPJ

[rseve43]

There's some good commentary in this thread already. Few thoughts:

- Buying now let's you add more good pieces and reduce your cost-dollar avg, which effectively lowers the bar for the level to which values need to rise for you to profit overall. This gives you flexibility in the future as long as the player still has a strong future.

- Don't touch base unless the grade makes them rare (ie BGS 10s, especially black labels).

- What's the opportunity cost? Are there other cards you could be spending your money on instead that will rise in value faster?

- At the same time, you also have to consider availability - if you pass on rare cards of this player right now, will you ever have a chance to buy them at these prices again?


***Most importantly, ask yourself what it would take for this player's values to rise to where you need them to be, and WHEN it's reasonable to think that could happen. This is usually a great grounding exercise - if you can still make a legit argument for why the player can/should rise, and you're ok with the expected time it'll take for this to happen, buy away.

[tmar214]

Once someone’s tanked I always try to think of if their is a potential catalyst for his prices to rebound. Things I look for are :

1) All star / MVP potential
2) team success
3) being traded or signed by a big market team

If he’s dead for all 3 of those I’ll usually sell and take the loss. Values in cards often work in odd ways. Guys who’s prices get cheap so rarely rebound in the third, fourth or fifth years unless they’re truly transcendent.

[Above the Rim]

What are y'all takes on Draymond Green? Not the big stat accumulator, but nonetheless a very important and huge piece to the Warriors team and their overall success. Constructing a current championship team, he sure is a player you would love on your team. Does he get much hobby following and can you see his cards being in semi-strong demand for years ?

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Above the Rim

What are y'all takes on Draymond Green? Not the big stat accumulator, but nonetheless a very important and huge piece to the Warriors team and their overall success. Constructing a current championship team, he sure is a player you would love on your team. Does he get much hobby following and can you see his cards being in semi-strong demand for years ?

Persona non grata if you’re not a Warriors fan.

[rseve43]

Originally Posted by Above the Rim

What are y'all takes on Draymond Green? Not the big stat accumulator, but nonetheless a very important and huge piece to the Warriors team and their overall success. Constructing a current championship team, he sure is a player you would love on your team. Does he get much hobby following and can you see his cards being in semi-strong demand for years ?

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Persona non grata if you’re not a Warriors fan.

He's the type of player that history will likely remember more fondly than he's viewed while active. He's been a critically important piece to multiple championship teams for the Warriors and will be a likely HOFer as result.