First Buzz: 2022 Bowman Draft baseball cards

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by erock28

2007 BD was only a disaster because they held back literally EVERY big name for 2008 Bowman. Yes, it was mass produced...but less than todays production by a long shot. Quite frankly, if you were to give me a 30 auto checklist but make it 20 1st rounders, 5/5 2nd/3rd with cranked presses to the point you only get one non-auto gold and 2-3 non-auto blues per case (like 2007), I'd take that over what we have now. Could you imagine what a 2022 BD case would look like if they only had the 2007 parallels? I'd be way worse - and you'd have 100+ autos.

It is a great example of print runs through the roof and how it doesn’t help the little guy speculator.

Imagine a product today where you get one base chrome gold parallel per hobby CASE as your best parallel and only three blue chrome base, and 9 out of ten autos were base autos.

It would be equivalent to a hobby case print run of 40,000 plus cases, today, for example.

Heads would explode.

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

It is a great example of print runs through the roof and how it doesn’t help the little guy speculator.

Imagine a product today where you get one base chrome gold parallel per hobby CASE as your best parallel and only three blue chrome base, and 9 out of ten autos were base autos.

It would be equivalent to a hobby case print run of 25,000 plus cases, today, for example.

Heads would explode.

But hobby cases cost less than 2 hobby boxes in today's terms, and boxes were consistently available for under $70. In early Bowman--2005 was my favorite year, and you had a great shot at a good auto. 15 cars checklist, which included Braun, Zimmerman, Rasmus, Ellsbury? And Jered Weaver and Stephen Drew (Weaver would be in the Kumar Rocker tier now) as SP'ed autos? Cj Henry was one of the lesser autos you could hit and he was a high ceiling Yankees high school first rounder. That would be a top eight hit this year.
Not to mention, about 100/165 players on the base checklist were firsts, with a lot of big names at the time like Bruce and McCutchen. It was an absolutely loaded checklist. I think there are was a single secojd rounder on the auto side.


With that said, everything is probably a magnitude of ten now on the pricing side versus 15-20 years ago. 1st overall pick touted as a generation talent? Delmon Young was $80 instead of $800. High floor/high ceiling college infield bat taken in the top five having immediate success? Ryan Zimmerman was $40 instead of $400.

[erock28]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

It is a great example of print runs through the roof and how it doesn’t help the little guy speculator.

Imagine a product today where you get one base chrome gold parallel per hobby CASE as your best parallel and only three blue chrome base, and 9 out of ten autos were base autos.

It would be equivalent to a hobby case print run of 40,000 plus cases, today, for example.

Heads would explode.

If your two choices for 2022 BD were:
1) Hypothetical hobby case - 10 boxes. 1 gold, 3 blue non-auto. 7/10 autos are base. 2 auto refractor, final a blue refractor or better. Auto CL is 30 deep - 20/5/5 1st/2nd/3rd. Cost is $900 ($700 in 2007, adjusted for normal inflation).

2) Jumbo cases - 8 boxes. 8 parallels in one of 20 different colors #'d to 150 or less (1 per box). 12 base auto/2 insert/3 ref/2 purple/5 blue or better. Auto CL being 102 deep, with the round breakdown as is for 2022 BD. Cost is $3,600.

Would you really spend 4x the cost to get 5 lower numbered autos, most of which are likely not good players? My point is, 2007 was only awful because the auto checklist lacked all the big names. If 2022 had the layout I listed above - followed 2007 in terms of production but gave you a rock solid auto CL, I'd be all-in - even with the huge production levels. Now we have all 32 colors of the rainbow as parallels to artificially add value, a diluted auto checklist, a bloated price point, AND massive production. It's the perfect storm of suck.

[hairysasquatch]

Originally Posted by erock28

If your two choices for 2022 BD were:
1) Hypothetical hobby case - 10 boxes. 1 gold, 3 blue non-auto. 7/10 autos are base. 2 auto refractor, final a blue refractor or better. Auto CL is 30 deep - 20/5/5 1st/2nd/3rd. Cost is $900 ($700 in 2007, adjusted for normal inflation).

2) Jumbo cases - 8 boxes. 8 parallels in one of 20 different colors #'d to 150 or less (1 per box). 12 base auto/2 insert/3 ref/2 purple/5 blue or better. Auto CL being 102 deep, with the round breakdown as is for 2022 BD. Cost is $3,600.

Would you really spend 4x the cost to get 5 lower numbered autos, most of which are likely not good players? My point is, 2007 was only awful because the auto checklist lacked all the big names. If 2022 had the layout I listed above - followed 2007 in terms of production but gave you a rock solid auto CL, I'd be all-in - even with the huge production levels. Now we have all 32 colors of the rainbow as parallels to artificially add value, a diluted auto checklist, a bloated price point, AND massive production. It's the perfect storm of suck.

Bought my last case of Bowman Draft in 2019. I miss it, but your accurate description of a perfect storm of suck eases the pain.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by erock28

If your two choices for 2022 BD were:
1) Hypothetical hobby case - 10 boxes. 1 gold, 3 blue non-auto. 7/10 autos are base. 2 auto refractor, final a blue refractor or better. Auto CL is 30 deep - 20/5/5 1st/2nd/3rd. Cost is $900 ($700 in 2007, adjusted for normal inflation).

2) Jumbo cases - 8 boxes. 8 parallels in one of 20 different colors #'d to 150 or less (1 per box). 12 base auto/2 insert/3 ref/2 purple/5 blue or better. Auto CL being 102 deep, with the round breakdown as is for 2022 BD. Cost is $3,600.

Would you really spend 4x the cost to get 5 lower numbered autos, most of which are likely not good players? My point is, 2007 was only awful because the auto checklist lacked all the big names. If 2022 had the layout I listed above - followed 2007 in terms of production but gave you a rock solid auto CL, I'd be all-in - even with the huge production levels. Now we have all 32 colors of the rainbow as parallels to artificially add value, a diluted auto checklist, a bloated price point, AND massive production. It's the perfect storm of suck.

Obviously it’s a different time and a different product today, I was just making the example that in 2007, when compared to 2005 or 2006 bowman draft, production was increased to the disgust of consumers back in the day.

Keep in mind, there were no breakers back then, and I loved the one auto per box format - I wish topps would go back to it.

You are trying to compare apples and oranges here. I understand your theoretical situation and it would be nice if today’s bowman draft could have a tiny auto checklist with only premium draft picks.

People will look at the 2022 bowman draft product when compared to 2021, 2020, and 2019 bowman draft with disgust as people looked at 2007 bowman draft when compared to 2004-2006 bowman draft with disgust.

That was my point. I am in no way comparing the 2007 bowman draft checklist or format versus 2022 bowman draft because they are very different products now in very different times.

The little guy is still getting screwed in both cases, however.

[imbluestreak23]

I'd rather Topps charge $1,000 a box and keep print runs low than charge what they are doing and **** up everything, quality/print runs/garbage names/etc.

Expensive lottery ticket with virtually no upside.

[Nung2019]

Maybe we can talk about the product and who’s in it now.. 659 posts about how crappy of a buy it is, is getting old.. we get it

[mcwildcats]

Originally Posted by Nung2019

Maybe we can talk about the product and who’s in it now.. 659 posts about how crappy of a buy it is, is getting old.. we get it

I pre-ordered a hobby case. There are still at least a few guys, including the top pick, in it that could pan out in a big way down the road. You just never know. I will just keep it sealed.

[Jblaw1]

Originally Posted by Nung2019

Maybe we can talk about the product and who’s in it now.. 659 posts about how crappy of a buy it is, is getting old.. we get it

Agree. Have done at least 10 cases a year of draft since 2017. Likely won’t do that amount but very curious on overall thoughts of the checklist. From a super quick look it looked like one of the top Hilton is in but not Jones. How many of the other top picks are not in it?

[Nung2019]

Holliday wasn’t a weak pick at number 1.. but not the flashy chase to drive the product

[reddragonthe]

Originally Posted by Nung2019

Maybe we can talk about the product and who’s in it now.. 659 posts about how crappy of a buy it is, is getting old.. we get it

Go ahead. No one is preventing the other conversation. Bring in the folks who are excited and lets have at it! I'd say even among us doomsdayers there's been a lot of good information on prospects and the checklist contents.

[Nung2019]

All might not be lost.. Houdini just said the 100 caser is back on

[rwperu34]

One thing I want to point out re: Elijah Green's performance. It was only 52 PA. K-Rate stabilizes pretty quickly, but even with a 40% K-rate over that few PA you're going to regress that to a true talent of 28% or so. Plus, what were you expecting? The dude had a 30 future hit pre draft.

Basically what I'm saying is, whatever you thought of Green before the draft you should still think that now.

That is true for most players due to the small sample sizes. The biggest performance impact for me would be Zach Neto. That is more of a "he did this in AA and has a good shot to make his MLB debut this year", than it is he really crushed it so I'm going to move him up.

[crpav]

Originally Posted by Nung2019

All might not be lost.. Houdini just said the 100 caser is back on

But how many have the money, or debt, to bid like usual? Too close to last release and other products, end of year, this economy and too watered down a checklist beyond a few highly rated guys.

[clocsta2323]

Originally Posted by Nung2019

All might not be lost.. Houdini just said the 100 caser is back on

Originally Posted by crpav

But how many have the money, or debt, to bid like usual? Too close to last release and other products, end of year, this economy and too watered down a checklist beyond a few highly rated guys.

Anyone bidding high on the big names at this point needs to have someone else control their finances

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by Nung2019

All might not be lost.. Houdini just said the 100 caser is back on

Its because the product doesn't have the demand. Its much easier to get bulk at reasonable prices again.

[Nung2019]

Man some of you guys have a negative outlook on life… cheer up

[notoriousrmb]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Its because the product doesn't have the demand. Its much easier to get bulk at reasonable prices again.

What is considered "reasonable" these days? Granted I don't have insider access to distributor or Topps direct sales.

For the little guy, I'm not seeing anything reasonable out there. $700+ Super Jumbo boxes are a joke. $400+ Jumbos are too.

[mattglet]

Originally Posted by Nung2019

Man some of you guys have a negative outlook on life… cheer up

Don't confuse negative with realistic.

[BigSlim16]

Are the lite boxes a decent buy for $125?

[notoriousrmb]

Originally Posted by BigSlim16

Are the lite boxes a decent buy for $125?

If they were, they wouldn't still be on the website.

[marterburn]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

One thing I want to point out re: Elijah Green's performance. It was only 52 PA. K-Rate stabilizes pretty quickly, but even with a 40% K-rate over that few PA you're going to regress that to a true talent of 28% or so. Plus, what were you expecting? The dude had a 30 future hit pre draft.

Basically what I'm saying is, whatever you thought of Green before the draft you should still think that now.

That is true for most players due to the small sample sizes. The biggest performance impact for me would be Zach Neto. That is more of a "he did this in AA and has a good shot to make his MLB debut this year", than it is he really crushed it so I'm going to move him up.

Dalton Rushing too for me. He didn't see the high level pitching we need to see to be FULLY convinced, but the odds of his bat playing elsewhere (assuming he moves off catcher) increased quite a bit with performance.

I agree on Green. His ceiling is immense but he has no floor. He's essentially like one of those high-upside DSL guys the hobby loves.

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

One thing I want to point out re: Elijah Green's performance. It was only 52 PA. K-Rate stabilizes pretty quickly, but even with a 40% K-rate over that few PA you're going to regress that to a true talent of 28% or so. Plus, what were you expecting? The dude had a 30 future hit pre draft.

Basically what I'm saying is, whatever you thought of Green before the draft you should still think that now.

That is true for most players due to the small sample sizes. The biggest performance impact for me would be Zach Neto. That is more of a "he did this in AA and has a good shot to make his MLB debut this year", than it is he really crushed it so I'm going to move him up.

Out of curiosity, how do you arrive at a regression from 40%k rate to 28% "true talent"? That's an enormous gap between Lazaro-will never sniff the upper minors because incapable of making contact-Armenteros territory, and Julio Rodriguez territory. Math isn't my strong suit, but I don't understand how you can diagnose "true talent" in an admittedly small sample size.

Elijah possess wicked bat speed and more pure tools than anyone else in the class. But.. if he's a 30 hit tool, then I think it speaks to the relative weakness of the class. The only guy I can think of in the past 25 years that went that high with such severe contact concerns was Bubba Starling at 5.

If you want to see how much work he has to do, look at how much his head moves vertically during his swing compared to Holliday. There's no chance this kid is going to touch upper minors off speed without a complete swing change.

[marterburn]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Out of curiosity, how do you arrive at a regression from 40%k rate to 28% "true talent"? That's an enormous gap between Lazaro-will never sniff the upper minors because incapable of making contact-Armenteros territory, and Julio Rodriguez territory. Math isn't my strong suit, but I don't understand how you can diagnose "true talent" in an admittedly small sample size.

Elijah possess wicked bat speed and more pure tools than anyone else in the class. But.. if he's a 30 hit tool, then I think it speaks to the relative weakness of the class. The only guy I can think of in the past 25 years that went that high with such severe contact concerns was Bubba Starling at 5.

If you want to see how much work he has to do, look at how much his head moves vertically during his swing compared to Holliday. There's no chance this kid is going to touch upper minors off speed without a complete swing change.

Truth lies somewhere in the middle with a Giancarlo-with-more-speed absolute ceiling, for me.

[jcfill]

I'm a fan of the checklist. Atypical for prospecting, but I really like a lot of the college guys they included. If they knock on the door of the majors sooner, it brings some more value to the product sooner in my opinion. Some high ceiling prep guys helps, and there's always a couple pop up guys every year.

Anyone have a favorite pitcher? JR Ritchie seems like he could develop quite nicely in the Braves system. Have similar feelings with Jacob Miller plus Marlins pitching dev.