Rafael Devers

[pewe]

Devers crushed the ball 3 times tonight, all three for deep outs, including an amazing HR denying catch by the RF

Felt like his swing was back on these rockets


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[sickmantz]

Originally Posted by pewe

Devers crushed the ball 3 times tonight, all three for deep outs, including an amazing HR denying catch by the RF

Felt like his swing was back on these rockets


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Good signs.

However, I just thinking about this... He hasn't been hitting the ball the other way...and when was the last time he took an outside pitch to left field? That's supposed to be one of his calling cards.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by sickmantz

Good signs.

However, I just thinking about this... He hasn't been hitting the ball the other way...and when was the last time he took an outside pitch to left field? That's supposed to be one of his calling cards.

Agreed - his pull % is waaaay up… I worry he saw the elimination of the shift, and then completely changed his approach, unwisely


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[pewe]

Third night in a row where he looked really locked in with his swing. Hitting balls both directions. Blasted a 2B to the wall.

Seems like he’s not over swinging and now just putting really good wood on the ball. This swing reminds me of 2019, and the reason I doubled down on building a collection


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[CP10]

Finally gets HR #30!
Hopefully he can end with an epic hot streak


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[pewe]

Originally Posted by CP10

Finally gets HR #30!
Hopefully he can end with an epic hot streak


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YES!!! Too many worm balls this season


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[pewe]

Resting for game two???


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[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by CP10

Finally gets HR #30!
Hopefully he can end with an epic hot streak


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I'm looking for the kind of streak that would make me say "his talent level hasn't changed" but the market would say "his talent level has fallen". I think the main thing to achieve that at this point would be to stay under 100 RBI and/or finish the year hitting .269, although he may be down enough already that it doesn't even matter.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I'm looking for the kind of streak that would make me say "his talent level hasn't changed" but the market would say "his talent level has fallen". I think the main thing to achieve that at this point would be to stay under 100 RBI and/or finish the year hitting .269, although he may be down enough already that it doesn't even matter.

I’d love it if he gets back to 2019 level prices… that was the last time I enjoyed buying… he still feels too rich for my blood at today’s prices


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[pewe]

Another nice game for Devers. Love plate discipline and power




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[pewe]

Devers bomb + pickup to celebrate with it




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[seanbros55]

Originally Posted by pewe

Devers bomb + pickup to celebrate with it




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Another great card pewe!

Our boy is putting together a SOLID campaign.

[pewe]

Got to LOVE seeing how much more disciplined Devers is these days

And back to hitting oppo shots

HR for GTRBI top of the 9th

Ties Jim Rice for most HR in Red Sox history before 27




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[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by pewe

Got to LOVE seeing how much more disciplined Devers is these days

And back to hitting oppo shots

HR for GTRBI top of the 9th

Ties Jim Rice for most HR in Red Sox history before 27




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I’m glad he’s ending the year strong, but I would have liked to seen THIS Raffy when my fantasy season was alive.

[1977 Cloth]

Originally Posted by pewe

Ties Jim Rice for most HR in Red Sox history before 27

Another way to look at it is it took Devers 7 years (1 covid) to do what Rice did in 5.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by 1977 Cloth

Another way to look at it is it took Devers 7 years (1 covid) to do what Rice did in 5.

FWIW they achieved it in pretty similar number of plate appearances. Devers I think needed maybe 100 more… like 3450 (Rice) vs. 3550 (Devers)… so the feat isn’t too different as the years measure would make it appear, I think


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[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by pewe

FWIW they achieved it in pretty similar number of plate appearances. Devers I think needed maybe 100 more… like 3450 (Rice) vs. 3550 (Devers)… so the feat isn’t too different as the years measure would make it appear, I think


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The other thing to consider is Jim Rice was already past his prime at this point. Devers could conceivably still have his best years in front of him.

[1977 Cloth]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

The other thing to consider is Jim Rice was already past his prime at this point. Devers could conceivably still have his best years in front of him.

Past his prime?

His 5 years from 82 to 86 are just slightly below his 5 years from 75 to 79. His second best statistical year was in 83.

However I think the other comment by Pewe is more accurate. I was simply pointing out that Rice had a pretty good run.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by 1977 Cloth

Past his prime?

His 5 years from 82 to 86 are just slightly below his 5 years from 75 to 79. His second best statistical year was in 83.

However I think the other comment by Pewe is more accurate. I was simply pointing out that Rice had a pretty good run.

Jim Rice's best three year run and five year run were behind him. 1982 to 1986 weren't even close to 75-79 and absolutely pale in comparison to 77-79.

Heck, the 82-86 run included a year with an OPS+ of 112. The only times he was lower were his age 21, and 34-36 seasons.

To recap;

1975-1979 included his three best years
1982-1986 included his worst year from age 22-33.

And for some reason we're glossing over 1980-1981, which saw him post an OPS+ of 120...compared to his career of 128.

In even more start fashion, Jim Rice's OPS+;

1975-1979 peak, 142 (including 153 over 1500 PA from 77-79)
1980-1986 the soft decline phase, 127

[pewe]

Devers performance today was definitely past his prime


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[1977 Cloth]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Jim Rice's best three year run and five year run were behind him. 1982 to 1986 weren't even close to 75-79 and absolutely pale in comparison to 77-79.

Heck, the 82-86 run included a year with an OPS+ of 112. The only times he was lower were his age 21, and 34-36 seasons.

To recap;

1975-1979 included his three best years
1982-1986 included his worst year from age 22-33.

And for some reason we're glossing over 1980-1981, which saw him post an OPS+ of 120...compared to his career of 128.

In even more start fashion, Jim Rice's OPS+;

1975-1979 peak, 142 (including 153 over 1500 PA from 77-79)
1980-1986 the soft decline phase, 127

I guess you are right. He was clearly barely hanging on and that is why he was led the league in RBI in 83 and finished 4th in MVP voting.

Then finished 3rd in MVP voting in 87.

4 All Star teams during each stretch. I really don't see how the Red Sox kept him the way he fell off the cliff like that.

I said the second stretch was not as good as the first, but you act like he couldn't play any longer.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by 1977 Cloth

I guess you are right. He was clearly barely hanging on and that is why he was led the league in RBI in 83 and finished 4th in MVP voting.

Then finished 3rd in MVP voting in 87.

4 All Star teams during each stretch. I really don't see how the Red Sox kept him the way he fell off the cliff like that.

I said the second stretch was not as good as the first, but you act like he couldn't play any longer.

All I said is he was past his prime, which he clearly was. I never once said he was a bad player.

To the original point, Devers next 5-8 years can still be better than what he's done so far. In fact it's still likely that his very best season is still in front of him.

[1977 Cloth]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

All I said is he was past his prime, which he clearly was. I never once said he was a bad player.

To the original point, Devers next 5-8 years can still be better than what he's done so far. In fact it's still likely that his very best season is still in front of him.

I believe if you take standard deviation into account, he was roughly the same player. There are other factors that are in play. I concede the argument. I think we are both on the same side. We just disagree on what "past his prime" means.

As for thinking he will get better, I don't understand that. Players do not usually improve in their 30s. Yes, you can list out several, but I can list out 3 to your 1 that decline. Knowing this how can you say it is a fact that he will improve. By your definition Devers is clearly past his prime since 2019 was his best statistical year.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by 1977 Cloth

I believe if you take standard deviation into account, he was roughly the same player. There are other factors that are in play. I concede the argument. I think we are both on the same side. We just disagree on what "past his prime" means.

As for thinking he will get better, I don't understand that. Players do not usually improve in their 30s. Yes, you can list out several, but I can list out 3 to your 1 that decline. Knowing this how can you say it is a fact that he will improve. By your definition Devers is clearly past his prime since 2019 was his best statistical year.

Devers is in his age 26 season. So he's got 27-29, which I'd say about half of players have their best year during that window. Then another ~15% will pop it during their age 30-32 seasons. Then the occasional player who will have their best year at 33+.

Overall I don't really expect him to get better. but it is certainly conceivable. Finding guys who had their best three year stretch from 27-29 or five year stretch from 27-31 isn't that difficult. Personally, I project him to stay the same for 3-4 years, then have a few years of soft decline. Add all that up and his next five should be the same or better than his last five...with a ton of potential variance in both directions.

[pewe]

Devers officially a mess again??? A lot of futile at bats and 3 K night… tons of swing and miss… ugh


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