Is Vintage Unopened Product DEAD??

[fact81]

I certainly don't post or collect nearly as much as I used to. Even attending card shows nowadays, I RARELY see people carrying or interested in any unopened vintage product.

Its all about Downtowns, Prizm this, Prizm that, PSA slabs etc.

I can appreciate the "hobby" has changed & will most likely continue to do so. I just can't wrap my head around how 2000 Ultra FB Box that possibly contains a Tom Brady RC can go for $1K & a box of 2023 Panini Prizm Hobby Box can go for $1300???

I see Tom Brady RC's selling for less than CJ Stroud.

Does Vintage even stand a chance to become "hot" ever again?

[foleylion08]

I was just thinking about this the other day. I feel like this new generation of collectors coming up aren't going to care about vintage as much. You'll have the few whose parents teach them about them growing up and have the people who appreciate the history of the game, of course.

But the kids being born today I don't think are going to care. Consider that a kid born today, by the time they're 24, Babe Ruth will have been dead 100 years. Not just done playing baseball, but dead.

And in football it's even less so. We have the players we loved growing up and our parents' favorites that they told us about, but how many modern collectors care about Bart Starr? Or Jim Thorpe? Or even guys in the 70s?

I feel like it's going to continue a steady decline for the middle of the pack vintage and the only thing that is going to stand out are the true outliers.

[rms13]

I don't know about football but vintage baseball is always a thing. There is definitely a big market for unopened pre junk wax vittage baseball but I don't think many people are opening it because it's more valuable sealed.

[49erRCCollector]

I think the young collectors, if they stick with it, will come around eventually.

My grandpa saw Lou Groza and Otto Graham but it never meant anything to me. Now my favorite cards are my '48 Leaf and '50 Bowman. I have a ton of vintage Niners, slabbed from '48 to whenever you think vintage ended.

When I was a kid it was ALL Joe Montana and later, Steve Young. But you stick with a team and hobby long enough you dig into the past, etc. Hard to judge the kids for the Stroud and Mahomes love. They are playing NOW. Making history NOW. That is exciting.

1800s baseball cards isn't dead.

Vintage may never be "hot" but it will likely always be valuable.

[tjforce]

Here's a problem I see with rookie cards of players from the 90s and later: There's so much of it.

Even Tom Brady, if you just count how many copies of all 44 of Tom Brady's base rookie cards there are, it just far outnumbers the amount of collectors. It's not like Joe Montana or Jerry Rice, where they have 1 rookie with a ton of copies, but high grade copies can be tough to find. But does anybody really go out of there way to buy a raw 2000 Paramount Tom Brady rookie and say "Welp, now my GOAT collection is complete"? People might actually do that with a PSA 8 rookie of Montana, Rice, or certainly a guy like Jim Brown.

Not only do mid-lower end players get lost over time, I believe mid to lower end sets to as well.

[daveyc1]

Vintage is far far from dead. just last month the 79-80opc hockey case set a new record. all unopened from the 50's-70's is hot. I wouldn't consider a 2000 wax box vintage.

when I was young, all I cared about was don Mattingly, jose canseco, griffey and the like. as I matured, I grew to appreciate the older players. don't worry, it has always worked out that way.

[Grid]

Its not dead, its just much harder to find now. But pricing has come back down to earth on older wax, since the COVID bubble burst.

I used to see stacks of older wax at all the bigger shows here in Chicago Pre-COVID. All just as cheap as ever. When everyone was locked down, Old wax and certainly Junk wax got bought up as everyone cracked at home and submitted for grading. You couldnt even find new wax, as the flippers scarfed them all up. Addicts had to bust something!

Grading costs went up, as they got back logged. As did the cost of older wax, as supplies dwindled.

Now, grading has really cooled down for common stuff. Values have flopped, as there is a ton of slabs in the market. Pop reports went way up over those 3 years. And that is what you see now.

Your 2000 Fleer is still $1K. That was probably $500 in 2019 and $2K during COVID. Its just back down to $1K, as even a Gem Mint Brady RC (if you are lucky to pull and grade that high) still wont even cover the cost of half the box.

[rms13]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Here's a problem I see with rookie cards of players from the 90s and later: There's so much of it.

Even Tom Brady, if you just count how many copies of all 44 of Tom Brady's base rookie cards there are, it just far outnumbers the amount of collectors. It's not like Joe Montana or Jerry Rice, where they have 1 rookie with a ton of copies, but high grade copies can be tough to find. But does anybody really go out of there way to buy a raw 2000 Paramount Tom Brady rookie and say "Welp, now my GOAT collection is complete"? People might actually do that with a PSA 8 rookie of Montana, Rice, or certainly a guy like Jim Brown.

Not only do mid-lower end players get lost over time, I believe mid to lower end sets to as well.

Junk wax era is one problem with high print runs. But I definitely agree with the take on modern 2000s stuff. Sure there are numbered stuff but guys have rookies in so many products and there are million paralells of each card so it's almost like junk wax. I think baseball is even worse. Mike Trout has thousands of 1/1 cards alone. How valuable is a 1/1 really when there are maybe 50 1/1 of a player in different products every yeat. But at the end of the day I just collect what I like now with no thoughts about value or resale

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by rms13

Junk wax era is one problem with high print runs. But I definitely agree with the take on modern 2000s stuff. Sure there are numbered stuff but guys have rookies in so many products and there are million paralells of each card so it's almost like junk wax. I think baseball is even worse. Mike Trout has thousands of 1/1 cards alone. How valuable is a 1/1 really when there are maybe 50 1/1 of a player in different products every yeat. But at the end of the day I just collect what I like now with no thoughts about value or resale

The game in collecting has always been being able to sift through the $hit to find the stuff that matters.

You could make that case in any production period in cards over the last 35 years.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by 49erRCCollector

I think the young collectors, if they stick with it, will come around eventually.

My grandpa saw Lou Groza and Otto Graham but it never meant anything to me. Now my favorite cards are my '48 Leaf and '50 Bowman. I have a ton of vintage Niners, slabbed from '48 to whenever you think vintage ended.

When I was a kid it was ALL Joe Montana and later, Steve Young. But you stick with a team and hobby long enough you dig into the past, etc. Hard to judge the kids for the Stroud and Mahomes love. They are playing NOW. Making history NOW. That is exciting.

1800s baseball cards isn't dead.

Vintage may never be "hot" but it will likely always be valuable.

Exactly. Because they literally always do. Vintage has been a thing for many generations. I don’t know why this current older generation is so concerned about it ending all of a sudden. It’s not going away.

The market has some quirks though for sure, but you can’t really compare a Brady base RC to a low print Stroud refractor. If Brady had a 2000 Prizm Blue Ice #/99 it would be worth a lot of money!

[Phishphan21]

I like pre1990

Junk included

I get current state of hobby is numbered and SSP and 12 prizms that all look about the same

I don’t get why current print runs include HOFs that haven’t played in decade+

2023 SSP variation holding glove seeds in right pocket

It’s not for me but more people paying attention = bigger market for ANY older items - the goats always win in the end


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[CapMarvelous]

Although not apples to apples, I started collecting in 2009 at 18 years old. I did not care about the history of the game or players from even 5 years prior.

I just cared about the now and moving forward.

So, aside from the 2000's Brady boxes, I can definitely see little to no interest in vintage football especially from younger collectors. They care more about what's possible instead of what has been done. There's no excitement in the certain and finished, I suppose?

[49erRCCollector]

Originally Posted by CapMarvelous

Although not apples to apples, I started collecting in 2009 at 18 years old. I did not care about the history of the game or players from even 5 years prior.

I just cared about the now and moving forward.

So, aside from the 2000's Brady boxes, I can definitely see little to no interest in vintage football especially from younger collectors. They care more about what's possible instead of what has been done. There's no excitement in the certain and finished, I suppose?

Call me when you hit 40.

I'm joking, but only a little. I didn't do a deep dive on older stuff until I hit my 40s. It is a niche area at this point, but there's also a VERY finite amount of higher end older cards, especially for PSA or SGC guys.

[nabzy28]

It takes a while to appreciate, as a collector. If you're interested in the game, eventually you begin to appreciate the history and start looking for those players/cards. I've said, recently, that football is the one sport that doesn't seem to have the depth of appreciation for top players that, pretty much, every other sport does. Outside of player/team collectors, there are cards that have upside potential. I am quite interested to see what the return of Topps brings to the football market with Chrome and all the mid to high end on card/game used stuff.

I will also say that it's somewhat difficult to 'learn' vintage, which may put off some collectors, too. Knowing how to determine condition and, then, factoring in how a card displays vs. whether or not it's actually centered well... etc, and the variances in value/price that each of those can cause - even with a card in the same grade. You've definitely got to put in some time and research and get some experience with it instead of just opening box, finding shiny, look up last 5 sales on eBay, sell it.

[oldgoldy97]

Cards47 is tearing up.

[CxL]

I know plenty will disagree with me, but in baseball and basketball there are old GOATs to chase after that the current generation wants. Jordan, Mantle, Robinson, Henderson, Magic, Mayes, Bird, Gwynn, Etc. list goes on. With football the current generation's goat and really the goat is Brady.

[packman80]

It's just whatever is the hotest at the moment that will make the most money. That's all the investors care about.

[CxL]

Originally Posted by packman80

It's just whatever is the hotest at the moment that will make the most money. That's all the investors care about.

to be fair that is the opposite of what investors want.

[Phishphan21]

Originally Posted by CapMarvelous

There's no excitement in the certain and finished, I suppose?

Load up on Sam Bradford Cj spiller and Ryan Matthews

That’s exciting


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[Phishphan21]

Sorry-that’s too judgmental

Collect whatever you want but the old ears know what they’re talking about

New stuff sells for the season old stuff sells forever


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[Archangel1775]

Bruh, I'm in a vintage unopened group and the stuff gets snatched up quick. Unopened will do fine.

[Seahawks fan]

Depends on what you consider vintage. I see tons of 80s football-Junk wax era being busted or sitting on shelves. The stuff never ends. The late 90s stuff definitely saw a resurgence and the good stuff from that era is either too expensive or dried up. The stuff you don't see is the 2001-2005 stuff before the Mass production of rc cards, player worn, and 1/1s.

We all know that 99% of the players from this era not named Mahomes will be worthless when this era becomes "Pandemic Vintage".

[mfw13]

Part of the problem with football vintage is football's overwhelming focus on QB's.

Pre-1970 you really have only six players with any really consistent demand....Unitas, Jim Brown, Starr, Sayers, and Joe Namath. And cards of those players are scattered amongst several manufacturers, since AFL and NFL licenses were with different companies.

And of course, it doesn't help that Topps football cards designs from the 70's and 80's are pretty mediocre, especially compared to their baseball card designs.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

Cards47 is tearing up.

Yes…. I really am

[CapMarvelous]

Originally Posted by 49erRCCollector

Call me when you hit 40.

I'm joking, but only a little. I didn't do a deep dive on older stuff until I hit my 40s. It is a niche area at this point, but there's also a VERY finite amount of higher end older cards, especially for PSA or SGC guys.

Fast forward 15 years into collecting, I have definitely become nostalgic about cards and sets from when I started collecting from 2009-2011, but still have no connection to or desire for anything prior. Still got 8 more years til 40, so we'll see haha.