The vanishing premium for a modern PSA 10

[anusinha]

Remember the good old days when a PSA 10 would get you a good 3-5x over the raw cost of a card? For the ultra modern stuff anyway, the older stuff always had a much larger premium. Feels like for the last couple years of releases, you barely get 2x over raw now. And for the new releases, the cost of the raw card drops so fast (feels like 50% a month), by the time you get the cards back from PSA, the Gems sell for the same as a raw when you pulled the card.

Definitely changes the math on the grading game, have to find very specific niches to take advantage of, especially in new stuff.

[discodanman45]

The much easier game is grading vintage right now for profit. This is becoming a big issue because that is what Kurt's Card Cult is focusing on. Turning 2's into 4.

I really hope we get collector's that appreciate raw cards. 1.5 million card every month at an average of $20ish dollars each to grade is sucking $30 million out of the collectors hands into the pockets of grading companies. It is most likely much higher than this.

If you are a collector, the smartest thing to do is collect raw cards and if that player becomes an all time great, grade it further down the line. The issue is 70% of this hobby are not collectors. We are filled with card "restoration experts," mystery pack scammers, and flippers.

I think a lot of people are catching on that print runs are insane right now and base will not hold value, even in a PSA 10. I love buying ungraded numbered cards of current players that could be stars. However, PSA and the people who make money off of PSA want you to believe that a base card in a PSA 10 is better than a PSA 9 of a numbered refractor. My advice to new collectors is just grab those rarer parallels. Screw pop reports for anything ultra-modern.

[Grave252]

There's really no reason to grade new releases. Sell immediately, buy back 2 months later and grade what you want.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by Grave252

There's really no reason to grade new releases. Sell immediately, buy back 2 months later and grade what you want.

The sole purpose of grading new releases is to be first to sell at the highest prices. People then complain about how PSA is not grading their cards first because they are then left holding the bag.

[Cracktoast]

More people in the hobby than pre-pandemic which means Print Runs are up so more cards are being graded which means more PSA 10's on the market.

Collectors have more and more started gravitating towards the photography aspect and ultra rare cards instead of PSA 10's of a card every John and Harry has. It's about having something only a select few others have. I haven't opened a single pack of 2024 product this far and instead am currently working on completing a insert set from 2018 which is extremely hard because of wax prices from that year so it's singles or nothing.

[Gary]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

The sole purpose of grading new releases is to be first to sell at the highest prices. People then complain about how PSA is not grading their cards first because they are then left holding the bag.

Good they deserve to be left holding the bag.welcome to the junk slab era.

[f2tornado]

Yes, there's diminishing returns in some facets but there's still plenty of money to be made in the modern to ultra modern slab market. One does need to be somewhat selective in what types of cards get sent in, be able to obtain raw at the right price point, and obtain a high percentage of gems. I've been sticking mostly to big names like Judge, Betts, and Harper. Color matches are a bonus. I have plenty of others that just sit in boxes waiting for an extended hot streak (like the Kyle Tucker cards I sent in my last order) or substantial service price drop (for my Altuve, Verlander, Pujols type stuff).

[collective]

If your MO is to make money, 99% of new release base rookies are not worth grading. Once you go outside of PSA, that number jumps to around 99.99%

[49erRCCollector]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

The much easier game is grading vintage right now for profit. This is becoming a big issue because that is what Kurt's Card Cult is focusing on. Turning 2's into 4.

I really hope we get collector's that appreciate raw cards. 1.5 million card every month at an average of $20ish dollars each to grade is sucking $30 million out of the collectors hands into the pockets of grading companies. It is most likely much higher than this.

If you are a collector, the smartest thing to do is collect raw cards and if that player becomes an all time great, grade it further down the line. The issue is 70% of this hobby are not collectors. We are filled with card "restoration experts," mystery pack scammers, and flippers.

I think a lot of people are catching on that print runs are insane right now and base will not hold value, even in a PSA 10. I love buying ungraded numbered cards of current players that could be stars. However, PSA and the people who make money off of PSA want you to believe that a base card in a PSA 10 is better than a PSA 9 of a numbered refractor. My advice to new collectors is just grab those rarer parallels. Screw pop reports for anything ultra-modern.

I grade for my PC so most of my cards are raw until I decide which ones to grade (and it is a very small number per year). I have no problem with grading base, if that is what you collect, but I think we're starting to get to a point that people are just grading nonsense in bulk and not finding buyers. eBay is flooded with junk slabs. I saw a Jake Moody random parallel on eBay this morning. Are people super collecting a kicker's random PSA-graded parallels? Who grades that?

The pandemic taught people the wrong message - grade everything and become a millionaire.

That's not 2024.

[oddstuff]

PSA's current bulk pricing plus inconsistency of grading plus massive print run increases have nulled this part of the card world. PSA apparently can survive (for now??) on Pokemon/gaming cards and without massive volume for bulk at lower pricing. Remember those days not too long ago when bulk was $6 with turnaround time of 2-3 months?

[oddstuff]

Originally Posted by 49erRCCollector

I grade for my PC so most of my cards are raw until I decide which ones to grade (and it is a very small number per year). I have no problem with grading base, if that is what you collect, but I think we're starting to get to a point that people are just grading nonsense in bulk and not finding buyers. eBay is flooded with junk slabs. I saw a Jake Moody random parallel on eBay this morning. Are people super collecting a kicker's random PSA-graded parallels? Who grades that?

The pandemic taught people the wrong message - grade everything and become a millionaire.

That's not 2024.

PSA making the most money out of that message and continues to. I've reduced my grading to around 10% of what I used to do prior to 2021.

[49erRCCollector]

Originally Posted by oddstuff

PSA's current bulk pricing plus inconsistency of grading plus massive print run increases have nulled this part of the card world. PSA apparently can survive (for now??) on Pokemon/gaming cards and without massive volume for bulk at lower pricing. Remember those days not too long ago when bulk was $6 with turnaround time of 2-3 months?

I used to save up 100 cards for subs at $8/pop. It was perfect.

My PC is just for me, so unless there is a good promotion at a lower price, I'll wait.

I do sell some slabs, but not a ton, and usually only if I upgrade.

[49erRCCollector]

Originally Posted by oddstuff

PSA making the most money out of that message and continues to. I've reduced my grading to around 10% of what I used to do prior to 2021.

I'm the same.

[MavsRChamps]

A card I'm planning on grading at $16 per - 2023-24 PANINI PRIZM #153 BILAL COULIBALY Rookie Orange Wave /60 - I looked up today. Raw sold prices are scattered between $70-$100 (with 1 at $155 which may be fake sale) online, and I saw a PSA 10 recently sold for $109. Just insane. I'll grade it and just assume that was an unusual low comp, but even the thought of potentially breaking even on a PSA 10 for a card that valuable is crazy and shows the huge lack of premium compared to years ago.

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by MavsRChamps

A card I'm planning on grading at $16 per - 2023-24 PANINI PRIZM #153 BILAL COULIBALY Rookie Orange Wave /60 - I looked up today. Raw sold prices are scattered between $70-$100 (with 1 at $155 which may be fake sale) online, and I saw a PSA 10 recently sold for $109. Just insane. I'll grade it and just assume that was an unusual low comp, but even the thought of potentially breaking even on a PSA 10 for a card that valuable is crazy and shows the huge lack of premium compared to years ago.

I think it is the player. The premium still exist for pre-pandemic style cards and star players from sets with lower pop.

[MavsRChamps]

Originally Posted by The_Reverend

I think it is the player. The premium still exist for pre-pandemic style cards and star players from sets with lower pop.

Somewhat, he's a Top 5/6 Rookie though. Few years back those guys would have a lot of premium. Now like you said it's reserved for a select few.

[nothinbefore]

The real problem is PSA 9's is worth raw prices, the market will correct itself one day

[redgem]

I have been getting 63% Gems on Raw Cards I have bought on Ebay, primarily from 2023 releases.
I have been getting 53% Gems on PSA 9s I buy on Ebay, Crack, then resub back to PSA. Once again primarily newer releases.

Although buying raw on Ebay results in more sub-9 grades vs buying PSA 9s on Ebay, sub-9 grades are cracked and resold on Ebay and those prices often fetch more than PSA 9s now (as buyers have expectation of grading and getting Gems so willing to pay slightly more).

New slabs are more difficult to crack so going forward I will probably just buy ungraded cards on Ebay, mostly newer releases so the cards are fresher. I would not buy raw cards on Ebay that are prior to 2022 as they probably have already been graded and cracked and are sub-9 condition.

PSA graders are monitored so that they are not too easy or difficult in grading, so overall goal is probably 50/50 for ultra modern. Given that, many cards that get a PSA 9 from one grader will get a PSA 10 from another, if PSA 10 is on average 2x PSA 9, it is just a numbers game. If you buy 100 PSA 9s on Ebay, crack all of them and resub to PSA, odds are that about half will come back PSA 10 with a different grader. PSA does not keep track of serial numbers, as I have had numbered PSA 8s come back as PSA 10s on subs. They are doing so much volume, they just don't have the time to check every card to see if it has been subbed prior. Grading is completely subjective, so I am taking advantage of that inefficiency.

[clocsta2323]

Haven't graded in over a year now. Was patiently waiting for the nadir of the market.. definitely was hoping it would have arrived now but still seems we got a ways to go for this disastrous card market to show some promise again. Sports cards are in dire straits..not touching with 100 foot pole until theres even a glimpse of some sort of stable future for it.

And then add in how utterly pathetic and soft the modern athlete is you can't have faith in anyone to perform consistently.

[discodanman45]

Checking serial numbers on cards should be automated and inserted during research. The serial number should be on the slab and it is a simple computer algorithm to catch it. If PSA isn't doing this, it is on purpose to encourage more people to crack and resubmit.

[KhalDrogo]

Grading or interest in graded cards is not the problem. It’s the cards themselves. The sets are boring. There’s no originality. Some of the best young players in all sports are not signing licensed cards. Wax is too expensive. Singles almost guarantee sunk cost.

There are two groups of buyers right now. True hobbyists and really dumb “investors”. This ultra modern market is not sustainable as is.

[collective]

Originally Posted by redgem

I have been getting 63% Gems on Raw Cards I have bought on Ebay, primarily from 2023 releases.
I have been getting 53% Gems on PSA 9s I buy on Ebay, Crack, then resub back to PSA. Once again primarily newer releases.

Although buying raw on Ebay results in more sub-9 grades vs buying PSA 9s on Ebay, sub-9 grades are cracked and resold on Ebay and those prices often fetch more than PSA 9s now (as buyers have expectation of grading and getting Gems so willing to pay slightly more).

New slabs are more difficult to crack so going forward I will probably just buy ungraded cards on Ebay, mostly newer releases so the cards are fresher. I would not buy raw cards on Ebay that are prior to 2022 as they probably have already been graded and cracked and are sub-9 condition.

PSA graders are monitored so that they are not too easy or difficult in grading, so overall goal is probably 50/50 for ultra modern. Given that, many cards that get a PSA 9 from one grader will get a PSA 10 from another, if PSA 10 is on average 2x PSA 9, it is just a numbers game. If you buy 100 PSA 9s on Ebay, crack all of them and resub to PSA, odds are that about half will come back PSA 10 with a different grader. PSA does not keep track of serial numbers, as I have had numbered PSA 8s come back as PSA 10s on subs. They are doing so much volume, they just don't have the time to check every card to see if it has been subbed prior. Grading is completely subjective, so I am taking advantage of that inefficiency.

If you insist on utilizing that time/money in sports cards, you'd be better served devoting 75% of that time/energy to learning the vintage side and taking advantage of that market. Much better ROI with vintage, and yes, part of the investment is one's invaluable time.

[anusinha]

Originally Posted by collective

If you insist on utilizing that time/money in sports cards, you'd be better served devoting 75% of that time/energy to learning the vintage side and taking advantage of that market. Much better ROI with vintage, and yes, part of the investment is one's invaluable time.

TCG is even better than vintage once you figure it out

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by anusinha

TCG is even better than vintage once you figure it out

Anything can be good. Pick something and master it. Jack of all trades, master of none, is not the way to go with slabs.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by anusinha

TCG is even better than vintage once you figure it out

TCG market is turbo competitive these days. It was amazing 3-4 years ago, but the supply of high quality vintage coming out of people's closets has mostly dried up, and the pop reports are absurd. And with valuable cards now, people are pretty cognizant of what a PSA 10 looks like, and the raw cards that are available any substantive length of time after release are mostly just not 10s. It's both a massive pro and a massive con that it's a lot easier to identify a 10 versus a 9 from a couple of photos with Pokemon than in traditional sports cards.