What’s going on with TAG?

[Ataraxia]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

TAG only has one goal, as you all know. I hear there is momentum toward achieving that goal. Mystery pack partners are just to keep the lights on.

I used to think that their primary goal was to sell off the "machine-assisted grading technology," but that doesn't really track. The software they're using to grade cards was built by contractors, with a splash of "proprietary" (patented) processes/hardware.

The problem is - most of the big names are already using machine-assisted tech (PSA has started to utilize some of its Genamint technology already). The other problem is that, while the technology is great at scanning depth, they haven't quite mastered the method to grade the cards the market demands they grade (mem/relic, thicker, acetate...).

They have no recourse of action other than to keep pushing through and delivering more product offerings. Acquisition is practically off the table for them at this point, seeing as Collectors Holdings, Inc. (PSA, SGC) are already starting to implement their machine-assisted tech... CGC and Beckett are coasting in the same space as TAG (barely holding on).

TL;DR: It's really, really optimistic to think that TAG is holding out for acquisition at this point. If they are, it's just foolishness.

[discodanman45]

I read the sentence CGC and BGS are in the same boat as TAG, so I can't believe any of the other statements you made. CGC is grading more cards as SGC and is a huge grading company in many collectibles.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

I read the sentence CGC and BGS are in the same boat as TAG, so I can't believe any of the other statements you made. CGC is grading more cards as SGC and is a huge grading company in many collectibles.

Ataraxia’s posts have been a breath of fresh air, but of course, it’s only a matter of time before the constant barrage of negativity drives him to stop, just like Hoi. Because why let insightful content thrive when we can complain instead?

TAG is evil.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Ataraxia

TL;DR: It's really, really optimistic to think that TAG is holding out for acquisition at this point. If they are, it's just foolishness.

Well, that is what they are doing. Obviously they can’t bank on that happening with certainty, but it’s their #1 objective. As we’ve always known.

[Ataraxia]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

I read the sentence CGC and BGS are in the same boat as TAG, so I can't believe any of the other statements you made. CGC is grading more cards as SGC and is a huge grading company in many collectibles.

From a market standpoint, they aren't in the same boat. From an industry one, they are. When you look at the starch differentials in grading numbers in cards alone between CGC, TAG, Beckett and PSA -- the bottom three of the top four are all leaning extremely hard on niches.

CGC is heavy on the same train as TAG - large bulk submitters that lead themselves into "mystery pack building." If you ignore their comic grading (which I use relentlessly -- ~40-50 comics a month), then you'll quickly see that CGC Cards are definitely in the "next stage" that TAG is attempting to get into.

BGS is still in the very bottom of the top four. Yes, Beckett has been in the market much longer than TAG, but they're both hovering around the bottom of the bunch (sometimes, TAG looks to be within 1,000-1,500 cards of Beckett on a weekly basis, based on the data posted in this thread).

So you can choose to "not believe what I say going forward," but it's just you putting on those rose-colored glasses and ignoring the overall market/industry at-large.

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Well, that is what they are doing. Obviously they can’t bank on that happening with certainty, but it’s their #1 objective. As we’ve always known.

Given where they are with their technology, they know now that acquisition by any of the Big 4 is out of the question. Until they can reach market-parity with product offerings, there's less than a 1% chance of them getting acquired. I've dealt with waaaay too many mergers and acquisitions over the years -- if it genuinely is their goal, they're about 4-5 years behind the curve and it's not going to happen.

I would likely argue that if people genuinely think it's their endgame at this point, they're not paying enough attention to TAG scrambling for market verticals. Everything from these scamtastic "AI-Guided/Inspired" custom bootleg cards (with zero authenticity and lacking any of the expected rate data that most collectors expect) to their ongoing deep collaboration with several card shows... kind of points that they're trying to find some offering or partnership that the market latches onto. TAG doubling down on bulk submitters is pretty much "inline" to what's expected from a smaller company like they are, but also ignores the small returning customer base they already have.

[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by Ataraxia

From a market standpoint, they aren't in the same boat. From an industry one, they are. When you look at the starch differentials in grading numbers in cards alone between CGC, TAG, Beckett and PSA -- the bottom three of the top four are all leaning extremely hard on niches.

CGC is heavy on the same train as TAG - large bulk submitters that lead themselves into "mystery pack building." If you ignore their comic grading (which I use relentlessly -- ~40-50 comics a month), then you'll quickly see that CGC Cards are definitely in the "next stage" that TAG is attempting to get into.

BGS is still in the very bottom of the top four. Yes, Beckett has been in the market much longer than TAG, but they're both hovering around the bottom of the bunch (sometimes, TAG looks to be within 1,000-1,500 cards of Beckett on a weekly basis, based on the data posted in this thread).

So you can choose to "not believe what I say going forward," but it's just you putting on those rose-colored glasses and ignoring the overall market/industry at-large.

CGC has a core following in TCG. They have picked up the niche market share because of their Pristine 10. Anecdotally there are core groups that PC and chase CGC pristine 10s.

I chat up everyone I can when it comes to TAG. It’s very rare to find TAG slabs for sale outside of EBay and Poke Collect. Most of the verbiage when I talk to them is very much the same. I’ve found a couple people who PC TAG, but that’s about it. I’ve only recently started seeing some stray slabs hit the places I frequent for buying/selling. That’s not the case with CGC. I think TAG would like to get to where CGC is in terms of an actual TCG core group. CGC has really stepped in and taken a chunk out of BGS. At this point BGS is survibtjng only on its Black Label when it comes to TCG.

BGS is really in its death gurgle right now. If the Pristine 10 grows beyond the core group, BGS will have very little left to bank on in TCG.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Ataraxia

Given where they are with their technology, they know now that acquisition by any of the Big 4 is out of the question.

Feel free to believe whatever you want. I’m more connected on this than you are.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by Ataraxia

So you can choose to "not believe what I say going forward," but it's just you putting on those rose-colored glasses and ignoring the overall market/industry at-large.

Have you seen the increase in CGC sports cards recently? None of those are going into mystery packs and the demand there seems to be surging. For all of 2024 they were right around 20,000 per month and now they are climbing to double of that. October they had 31k in sports cards and this month they have been doing about 10k a week. There are many on here waiting on their October orders from sports cards, so CGC is doing just fine on grading cards. The comic book business has been on a big decline recently.

The reason for this is most likely CGC partnering with Fanatics Live for grading. If you go to Fanatics Collect you will see tons of slabs and they even have tons of cards that are just authenticated by CGC in Card Savers. It wouldn't surprise me to see CGC catch up to SGC with sports cards in 2025 with this partnership. This Fanatics Live relationship is definitely helping them. However, I use rose-colored glasses.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

TAG only has one goal, as you all know. I hear there is momentum toward achieving that goal. Mystery pack partners are just to keep the lights on.

What did you hear?

[collective]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Have you seen the increase in CGC sports cards recently? None of those are going into mystery packs and the demand there seems to be surging. For all of 2024 they were right around 20,000 per month and now they are climbing to double of that. October they had 31k in sports cards and this month they have been doing about 10k a week. There are many on here waiting on their October orders from sports cards, so CGC is doing just fine on grading cards. The comic book business has been on a big decline recently.


The reason for this is most likely CGC partnering with Fanatics Live for grading. If you go to Fanatics Collect you will see tons of slabs and they even have tons of cards that are just authenticated by CGC in Card Savers. It wouldn't surprise me to see CGC catch up to SGC with sports cards in 2025 with this partnership. This Fanatics Live relationship is definitely helping them. However, I use rose-colored glasses.

Surge? January 20k February 12k March 31k April 18k May 24k June 15k July 23k August 21k September 12k October 31k

CGC numbers include their Sarasota office, the China office, and the Fanatics Collect (formerly PWCC) locations. They're hovering around Beckett numbers and Beckett is a sinking ship.

Didn't TAG launch with two ex CGC graders?

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by collective

Surge? January 20k February 12k March 31k April 18k May 24k June 15k July 23k August 21k September 12k October 31k

CGC numbers include their Sarasota office, the China office, and the Fanatics Collect (formerly PWCC) locations. They're hovering around Beckett numbers and Beckett is a sinking ship.

Didn't TAG launch with two ex CGC graders?

CGC had been at 10K a week and BGS is at 4K a week for sports cards. For total items, CGC has been at 50K plus a week and Beckett is at 8K. You can't compare the two. Since the Fanatics Collect and CGC partnership, they have been increasing their sports cards. This started in late September. Which is why October was a jump to 31K and this month should be close to 40K.

CGC launched with two ex BGS (Edit: well one BVG grader) graders, you are getting your companies confused.

[collective]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

CGC had been at 10K a week and BGS is at 4K a week for sports cards. For total items, CGC has been at 50K plus a week and Beckett is at 8K. You can't compare the two. Since the Fanatics Collect and CGC partnership, they have been increasing their sports cards. This started in late September. Which is why October was a jump to 31K and this month should be close to 40K.

CGC launched with two ex BGS graders, you are getting your companies confused.

The numbers I provided are sports and sports only numbers. TAG brought on two ex CGC graders early on, and according to my contacts, they're both still at TAG.

Yes, CSG launched with two former Beckett graders.

[varjakpaul]

Originally Posted by collective

The numbers I provided are sports and sports only numbers. TAG brought on two ex CGC graders early on, and according to my contacts, they're both still at TAG.

Yes, CSG launched with two former Beckett graders.

TAG hasn’t said much about their operational process publicly since those Jeremy Lee videos two years ago which stressed automation quite a bit - do your contacts know anything about the current role graders play there?

[Ataraxia]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

Removed to keep the length of post reasonable

You're right. CGC is definitely in a nicer spot than TAG (across the board). It's more so that they've also been in that "bulk submitter/mystery pack" space for quite some time - but their numbers exceed anything TAG will be putting on the board any time soon.

I used to have an LCS that would group submit to TAG until a new guy took over (massive PSA fanboy). He came in and basically said, "TAG/CGC/BGS are trash and we're only going to group submit to PSA going forward." That store still has some TAG slabs, but mostly baseball/football/basketball ones that are pretty low-value (sub-$20 raw). That's actually how I got into submitting a few hockey/Marvel cards to TAG.

BGS is in a really weird space. Seems like their week over week grading numbers aren't super great and keep dwindling closer to that of an amateurish startup grader (e.g., TAG). There are some weeks where TAG has graded more than BGS, but it's simply not consistent.

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Feel free to believe whatever you want. I’m more connected on this than you are.

How ominous and vague.
I digress, I'm only somewhat "connected" to the industry (primarily having just hired a former PSA employee for a client of mine and the "hub-bub/rumor mill" at different LCS/Card Shows). But my comments there were primarily based on the product TAG now (which the slabs are great, but the tech is pretty early-stage/limited) - not coming from a place of "I know everything that's happening behind the scenes."

That said, someone being ominous and vague online is always a lovely maroon flag of "I just want to have the last word." So... I'll take it with a grain of salt, if you don't mind.

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Removed to keep the length of post reasonable

I'll be the first admit, anecdotally speaking, that I've started sending sports cards over to CGC. Their slabs are clearer than PSA/BGS/SGC and their labels don't look like old address labels from the 70s/80s (see: PSA). From what I've been able to see, market-wide, a lot of the mystery packs are very TCG-focused. We see some of them on the sports side from time to time, but even less frequently in my primary sports (hockey). I can definitely see CGC taking up more of the sports space -- for all of the reason you've mentioned.

In relation to TAG, specifically, they're lacking on the partnerships that make grading through them more accessible. Given their limitations on what they can/cannot grade, it's next to impossible to create a comprehensive partnership with them (like what COMC does with multiple graders now).

[collective]

Originally Posted by varjakpaul

TAG hasn’t said much about their operational process publicly since those Jeremy Lee videos two years ago which stressed automation quite a bit - do your contacts know anything about the current role graders play there?

Graders authenticate and confirm AI generated grades. TAG brings graders to on-site grading events and that's what they're doing in the back room space on the show floor.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Ataraxia

How ominous and vague.
I digress, I'm only somewhat "connected" to the industry (primarily having just hired a former PSA employee for a client of mine and the "hub-bub/rumor mill" at different LCS/Card Shows). But my comments there were primarily based on the product TAG now (which the slabs are great, but the tech is pretty early-stage/limited) - not coming from a place of "I know everything that's happening behind the scenes."

Uh, not sure you know what ominous means.

[Ataraxia]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Uh, not sure you know what ominous means.

being or exhibiting an omen : portentous

Yep... that's the context in which I used it.
Are you sure you knew what it meant? It's a struggle to understand English sometimes, it is a weird language.

[KhalDrogo]

Now you’ve almost got me rooting for this trash company and their trash investors to get acquired. Don’t think I’ll quite get there though.

[Ataraxia]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Now you’ve almost got me rooting for this trash company and their trash investors to get acquired. Don’t think I’ll quite get there though.

Who knew? The power of the English dictionary actually does do wonders!

Banter aside: Your bias is cast on full display when you can't seem to use any adjective other than trash to describe a company. They're not in my good graces right now, but that doesn't mean I want them to "fail." An acquisition would be good. I just think that whoever is willing to purchase the patented technology has a few issues to overcome:

1. Lack of functionality - Without mem/relic/thicker cards, an acquisition would mean that the company would be limited as to what can be done with said technology.
2. "Unruly Code" - Seeing as it was developed by several contractors and TAG doesn't have anyone in-house to optimize or improve the technology, anyone who buys it would just be taking on a significant amount of tech debt.
3. Lack of Scalability - Between the hardware shown on the patent and what has been photographed/reported from card shows, the hardware isn't exactly in a place to be used "en masse." This is part of the ongoing issue where we see the numbers fluctuate so rapidly (and why customers are realizing that their 10-day turnaround is starting to bleed into 12-17 days).

As I mentioned, my issue wasn't that you're "more connected" - just that there's a lot one can see about TAG (as a company) from a public-facing perspective that would give some resistance to an acquisition (from my own personal experience with them). If they were to get acquired in their current state, I would hope it was more so to "keep them out of the equation" and less "let's incorporate it into our workflow."

Genamint was in a much healthier spot when PSA bought them, just that they didn't have a market-viable product (i.e., their own slabs). It also helped that they were using Open CV and Kevin Lenane had enough clout (even then) to drive its function in a practical manner. Steve Kass was a "strictly business guy" with a dash of being a collector/hobbyist - he approached this from a "full product" perspective but failed to focus on the important bit, the technology. So it's behind the curve.

But I guess we'll see - if they are acquired, I pity whoever does buy them with the amount of tech debt they'd be bringing on.

[pumpkinescobar]

TAG graded 2,360 cards last week.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Ataraxia

Banter aside: Your bias is cast on full display when you can't seem to use any adjective other than trash to describe a company. They're not in my good graces right now, but that doesn't mean I want them to "fail." An acquisition would be good. I just think that whoever is willing to purchase the patented technology has a few issues to overcome:

Companies that take investor money from some of the biggest pieces of #@#@#@#@ in the hobby can accurately be described as trash.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Companies that take investor money from some of the biggest pieces of #@#@#@#@ in the hobby can accurately be described as trash.

Who did they take money from, and was this recent? You keep alluding to things (e.g., being bought) without providing details or context, so it’s hard to see where you are coming from.

[Ataraxia]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Companies that take investor money from some of the biggest pieces of #@#@#@#@ in the hobby can accurately be described as trash.

Oh, my sweet, sweet summer child.
You do understand that those same individuals have a significant amount of shares in CLCT, right? That's not even including some of the larger VC firms that have notoriously vested themselves across multiple companies (including the Big 4). You have BlackRock who bought out CGC semi-recently, stated that their only goal is PSA-level of profits. You have Collector's Holding, Inc (PSA/SGC) out here taking $100M from D1 Capital and the Cohen VC (Steve Cohen, minority owner of the Mets, GameStop short-squeeze extraordinaire, and overall menace to the card industry) and Nat Turner (another menace).

If that's your criteria for a company being trash, you should probably stop grading cards immediately.

[varjakpaul]

wish some of that dark money would fix their site so you don’t have to buy through Shopify and then head to a second website

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by varjakpaul

wish some of that dark money would fix their site so you don’t have to buy through Shopify and then head to a second website

What does it matter to you? You aren't using them.