2024 NFL MVP Odds

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by Delta5

I said my piece, see you in the playoff

Yet if Mahomes played terrible..you would've been in that thread crapping all over him

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by Chris P

Yet if Mahomes played terrible..you would've been in that thread crapping all over him

Oh, now you're the one who come to mvp thread and crapping on me? Kudos

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by Delta5

Oh, now you're the one who come to mvp thread and crapping on me? Kudos

Crapping on you or your statement? I just don't believe you haven't ventured into the Mahomes thread this week because you "said your piece". You haven't been in there because he played great.

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by Chris P

Crapping on you or your statement? I just don't believe you haven't ventured into the Mahomes thread this week because you "said your piece". You haven't been in there because he played great.

how many great games he had this season? how many below average games? Go celebrate his great games like everyone else on that thread, it comes really far inbetween nowadays

[Jaysabz]

Originally Posted by weeds73

Did Allen’s O-Line just jinx him?




If Allen has another game against the Jets like he had last week, you are going to see the odds further narrow. Plus, there’s the possibility that they lock up the two seed this weekend and he sits the last weekend (which will create a bigger gap statistically with Lamar and others)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That is the corniest @#$% ever. Allen's O Line bought him a diamond encrusted jersey medallion that says MVP? And is he doing the Dr. Evil pose?

Usually QBs spend the big $$ on their O Line for taking care if them. I remember the Dan Marino commercials from the 80s/90s about buying his O Line Isotoner gloves, because you have to "take care of the hands that take care of you."

I hope to God Allen sells that gaudy dumb looking necklace and donates the proceeds to a food bank or homeless shelter or something, cause objectively - I'm not hating here, that thing is fugly, he'd be a horse's behind to actually wear it in public, and the whole thing is super cringe.

If he wins MVP good for him, put the trophy on your mantle or display it at the Bills training facility, J to the A. But get rid of that ... thing. Not a good look.

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

My top 3 MVP candidates

Lamar

Josh Allen

Saquan

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by Jaysabz

That is the corniest @#$% ever. Allen's O Line bought him a diamond encrusted jersey medallion that says MVP? And is he doing the Dr. Evil pose?

Usually QBs spend the big $$ on their O Line for taking care if them. I remember the Dan Marino commercials from the 80s/90s about buying his O Line Isotoner gloves, because you have to "take care of the hands that take care of you."

I hope to God Allen sells that gaudy dumb looking necklace and donates the proceeds to a food bank or homeless shelter or something, cause objectively - I'm not hating here, that thing is fugly, he'd be a horse's behind to actually wear it in public, and the whole thing is super cringe.

If he wins MVP good for him, put the trophy on your mantle or display it at the Bills training facility, J to the A. But get rid of that ... thing. Not a good look.

What's your problem? Why you're hating on him? What he done to you? Their O-line can spend on whatever they want, maybe Josh is a great guy that not only he gave stuffs to his O-line, their O-line also wants to give him something? Why you so mad, if Ice is not for you then fine, why you're wishing Allen to sell it? Get a life

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by JohnnyHatesJazz

My top 3 MVP candidates

Lamar

Josh Allen

Saquan

Why you edit it? I saw Allen on top before

[Jaysabz]

Originally Posted by Delta5

What's your problem? Why you're hating on him? What he done to you? Their O-line can spend on whatever they want, maybe Josh is a great guy that not only he gave stuffs to his O-line, their O-line also wants to give him something? Why you so mad, if Ice is not for you then fine, why you're wishing Allen to sell it? Get a life

Go read my post slowly, and you'll have the answers to most if not all your questions, I'm not hating on Allen - that would make no sense, as it was a gift given to him.

I think it's a lame gift because it's gaudy and douchey, and says "MVP" on it. HOWEVER, I think it's cute that the O Line bought it for him though, the same way I think a parent buying their kid a "#1 Son" ribbon is cute.

And I suggested selling it and donating the proceeds because that's what heroes do. There's a lot of people who are hungry and in need this holiday season, and that pendant, which is most likely going to sit in a safe and never be worn, could do a lot of good for a lot of people IMO.

[Joshi City]

Recency bias is going to be on Lamar's side and the odds changing reflects that. Did Allen peak too soon with 'memorable games/moments' with the KC/SF/Rams/Lions run? If he doesn't have a good game this weekend and then doesn't play at all Week 18, Lamar Jackson has been great the last few weeks and voters will always remember breaking records and being dominate on national TV. I said a few weeks ago that if the Ravens won out/won the division that a one or two game "wins" difference wouldn't matter, especially with what happened in Bills vs. Ravens.

I'm still of course rooting hard for Allen as a Bills fan and I do think it hurts Jackson (unfairly) he has won it twice as some voters if they think its super close will go with the first time person. But its certainly not as clear cut as it was two weeks ago. I still don't think it will go to Barkley even if he breaks the record, not with two exciting QBs duking it out. Its just a QB award.

[mc1]

Originally Posted by Joshi City

Recency bias is going to be on Lamar's side and the odds changing reflects that. Did Allen peak too soon with 'memorable games/moments' with the KC/SF/Rams/Lions run? If he doesn't have a good game this weekend and then doesn't play at all Week 18, Lamar Jackson has been great the last few weeks and voters will always remember breaking records and being dominate on national TV. I said a few weeks ago that if the Ravens won out/won the division that a one or two game "wins" difference wouldn't matter, especially with what happened in Bills vs. Ravens.

Everyone looks at odds and ignores the main factor driving changes for them. Books will adjust odds based on betting behavior and money being wagered. If lots of money starts coming in on Josh Allen, they will make him a bigger favorite. Once people start betting on Lamar, the odds get closer. The books aren’t in the business of making predictions. They just want to make money and will move lines and odds to maximize their profit.

[Joshi City]

Originally Posted by mc1

Everyone looks at odds and ignores the main factor driving changes for them. Books will adjust odds based on betting behavior and money being wagered. If lots of money starts coming in on Josh Allen, they will make him a bigger favorite. Once people start betting on Lamar, the odds get closer. The books aren’t in the business of making predictions. They just want to make money and will move lines and odds to maximize their profit.

Its not just the odds though, but NFL "experts" have also started hitting the MVP Drum for Lamar Jackson. How the voters feel, I have no idea, but I do think there is more buzz for Lamar now than there has been at any point this season.

[sportzluvr1]

Media (and of course his stats) will drive the Lamar narrative to the finish line. My $ is on him.

[SleeperCards]

Originally Posted by Delta5

What's your problem? Why you're hating on him? What he done to you? Their O-line can spend on whatever they want, maybe Josh is a great guy that not only he gave stuffs to his O-line, their O-line also wants to give him something? Why you so mad, if Ice is not for you then fine, why you're wishing Allen to sell it? Get a life

Thank you Jaysabz for the belated xmas gift.

[MFaulkCollector]

It's been 4-5 weeks since I've last looked much into this, and at that time I was Lamar Jackson as my 1 and it wasn't close.

As it stands now, I believe Jackson to be the most deserving player at this point but my change would be Barkley moving from 2 down to 3 or potentially 4 and Allen moving up to striking distance with Jackson.

Lamar Jackson is in the midst of a season with a rating of 121.6 (which is currently the second best season on record ever for efficiency numbers), and he leads the NFL in QBR over Allen by a small margin. His 39 passing TD's lead Allen's 26 and his 43 overall TD's lead Allen's 37. Jackson's 4800 yards between passing and rushing lead Allen by about 700. ***** Allen has played 1 less game so far so to close the stat gap we are looking at 6 total TD's and roughly 700 yards of offense.

Allen has 7 turnovers this year to Jackson's 8. Slight advantage Allen.

The Ravens play in a division with the Steelers and the Bengals who present real challeneges, the Browns; meh. The Bills play in a division with Dolphins who have grossly underperformed, the Jets who are one of the worst 5-6 teams in the league, and the Patriots who are one of the worst 3. In the head to head the Ravens absolutely destroyed the Bills, which indicates to me they are at least as good even if the record may not be exact.

People will say Jackson benefits from Derrick Henry to an enormous extent. Although that may appear like a defining principle let us not forget what a rushing stalwart the Ravens have been the past 6 years. Derrick Henry as one player has accumulated a lot of yards and TD's. In previous years the Ravens also led the NFL in rushing but with different allocations. The Ravens being a dominant rushing team is not new, not should it be held against him. In fact, when you consider Jackson has thrown for 39 TD and ran for another 4.... while King Henry has 15 plus, I'd say that's remarkable on Jackson.

It's very very difficult to argue a players (value) in terms of wins because divisions aren't constant, schedules may vary depending on playing style while winning percentages may not differ much. The Ravens defense has talent out the wazoo and have played like absolute garbage most of the year. The Bills have played better defense which resulted in some lopsided games and less opportunity for huge stat days..... but then again the best game of Allen's career resulted in 6 Td's and a L. So really all he was valuable for in that game was entertainment.

So I think it's best to just look at what is there to evaluate. We have most of the puzzle at this point and it's pretty clear Jackson has had the better season. That part really isn't debatable

Here is where I turn though. Jackson DID NOT DESERVE TO WIN THE AWARD LAST YEAR. For that reason I hope Allen wins. I wouldn't hold last year's joke of a vote against him this year if I were voting but I hope the AP does. Jackson last year for me was not even a top 4 candidate and for whatever reason it turned into the QB on best team award. That in my opinion was embarrassing.

I'd vote for Jackson as of today, I think he's the pick and it's still pretty clear..... but I hope Allen keeps up enough momentum to sway voters away from the right choice; because they did not make the right choice last year.

[JWBlue]

Originally Posted by thesportslab

Oh, right. I guess Mahomes is getting his 3rd MVP…

Better case for this than LJ. Not Allen though.

[kyle1707]

If Allen wins last 2 games and plays well

I think Allen gets it. But will Lamar and Allen even play last week ?

Although Lamar seems like best qb in football right now now. Or burrow

To be honest could be a case for all 4

Kermit Allen Lamar and burrow .. Lamar lost to 2 last place teams. So why should burrow not be in the race ?

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

If Allen wins last 2 games and plays well

I think Allen gets it. But will Lamar and Allen even play last week ?

Although Lamar seems like best qb in football right now now. Or burrow

To be honest could be a case for all 4

Kermit Allen Lamar and burrow .. Lamar lost to 2 last place teams. So why should burrow not be in the race ?

I think Burrow has had a great season but I honestly think it's a two horse race right now. During the Christmas games when they were saying Lamar is the favorite and Allen is second but don't count out Saquon and Burrow, I was just like, what? Burrow is +9000 right now. Would have to be an insane last two games for him to win.

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by MFaulkCollector

It's been 4-5 weeks since I've last looked much into this, and at that time I was Lamar Jackson as my 1 and it wasn't close.

As it stands now, I believe Jackson to be the most deserving player at this point but my change would be Barkley moving from 2 down to 3 or potentially 4 and Allen moving up to striking distance with Jackson.

Lamar Jackson is in the midst of a season with a rating of 121.6 (which is currently the second best season on record ever for efficiency numbers), and he leads the NFL in QBR over Allen by a small margin. His 39 passing TD's lead Allen's 26 and his 43 overall TD's lead Allen's 37. Jackson's 4800 yards between passing and rushing lead Allen by about 700. ***** Allen has played 1 less game so far so to close the stat gap we are looking at 6 total TD's and roughly 700 yards of offense.

Allen has 7 turnovers this year to Jackson's 8. Slight advantage Allen.

The Ravens play in a division with the Steelers and the Bengals who present real challeneges, the Browns; meh. The Bills play in a division with Dolphins who have grossly underperformed, the Jets who are one of the worst 5-6 teams in the league, and the Patriots who are one of the worst 3. In the head to head the Ravens absolutely destroyed the Bills, which indicates to me they are at least as good even if the record may not be exact.

People will say Jackson benefits from Derrick Henry to an enormous extent. Although that may appear like a defining principle let us not forget what a rushing stalwart the Ravens have been the past 6 years. Derrick Henry as one player has accumulated a lot of yards and TD's. In previous years the Ravens also led the NFL in rushing but with different allocations. The Ravens being a dominant rushing team is not new, not should it be held against him. In fact, when you consider Jackson has thrown for 39 TD and ran for another 4.... while King Henry has 15 plus, I'd say that's remarkable on Jackson.

It's very very difficult to argue a players (value) in terms of wins because divisions aren't constant, schedules may vary depending on playing style while winning percentages may not differ much. The Ravens defense has talent out the wazoo and have played like absolute garbage most of the year. The Bills have played better defense which resulted in some lopsided games and less opportunity for huge stat days..... but then again the best game of Allen's career resulted in 6 Td's and a L. So really all he was valuable for in that game was entertainment.

So I think it's best to just look at what is there to evaluate. We have most of the puzzle at this point and it's pretty clear Jackson has had the better season. That part really isn't debatable

Here is where I turn though. Jackson DID NOT DESERVE TO WIN THE AWARD LAST YEAR. For that reason I hope Allen wins. I wouldn't hold last year's joke of a vote against him this year if I were voting but I hope the AP does. Jackson last year for me was not even a top 4 candidate and for whatever reason it turned into the QB on best team award. That in my opinion was embarrassing.

I'd vote for Jackson as of today, I think he's the pick and it's still pretty clear..... but I hope Allen keeps up enough momentum to sway voters away from the right choice; because they did not make the right choice last year.

Great take, noone is arguing that Lamar currently has the best stats. But, you got to remember that MVP is narrative based and not best stats award. Allen beats Chiefs and Lions and ended their 9 winning streak and 11 winning streak respectively. Bills also best both of the top dog of each conferences and have 2 less losses than Ravens. Obviously, I cant read to voters mind but I'd say Allen still has this in the bag as long as he doesnt play poorly on week 17. Their stats should also close a bit as Allen playing 1 game less for now

[Delta5]

Just a reminder, Allen had 600+ more pass yards and 15 more TDs last season than Jackson but they still gave it to Jackson

[SleeperCards]

https://x.com/davemyersbib/status/1872316195787182189

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by SleeperCards

https://x.com/davemyersbib/status/1872316195787182189

that's last year voters

[jplarson]

Originally Posted by SleeperCards

https://x.com/davemyersbib/status/1872316195787182189

Dan Orlovsky......

Wow.

I thought people said this was a quarterback award.

[Mikeh6480]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

If Allen wins last 2 games and plays well

I think Allen gets it. But will Lamar and Allen even play last week ?

Although Lamar seems like best qb in football right now now. Or burrow

To be honest could be a case for all 4

Kermit Allen Lamar and burrow .. Lamar lost to 2 last place teams. So why should burrow not be in the race ?

Bengals haven’t beaten a team w a winning record all year and wont make the playoffs..

Lamar will play bc division is still up for grabs and Ravens will play at the same time the Steelers more than likely.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by Mikeh6480

Bengals haven’t beaten a team w a winning record all year and wont make the playoffs..

Lamar will play bc division is still up for grabs and Ravens will play at the same time the Steelers more than likely.

Flex game per the schedule in the final week so this makes sense. Buffalo's locked in for home field so maybe a seeding thing that would make it important. Not sure how much it matters though with the wildcard teams so close in ability. Buffalo will know where the Bengals, Chargers and Broncos stand by they time they take the field this Sunday morning. Ravens however are a must-win in the final week for the Division and home field in the 1st round.