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FOOTBALL BOX & CASE BREAKS Post Your FOOTBALL Box & Case Breaks Here! |
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#1 |
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I’ve been back and forth with the hobby lately and have contemplated leaving entirely. I used to have a ton of fun opening product and chasing nice cards but it has been getting to the point where it’s no longer fun doing so. Just a ton of frustration. Hobby boxes have gotten entirely out of hand with prices which drove me to busting more retail. Retail prices are getting out of hand with the 10x production, insanely harder odds at pull rates, and lack of quality control…all while doubling the price of all formats. It seems any time I finally hit my chase card, it usually had a damaged corner; dents, dimples, or creases on it the front or back; nasty vertical scratches; or is way off centered. Sending cards back isn’t worth it anymore either because the companies just fail to response anymore. Reflecting back on how much I’ve spent over the past couple years on retail wax and what I have to show for it in return would make anyone want to vomit. It’s BAD!
Anyways, I’ve been watching videos here and there just to somewhat stay connected to the hobby and see the different formats available and if there are any “too good to pass up” type products and the Donruss Mega box caught my attention. I’ve been seeing a ton of breaks where people are hitting downtowns left and right and the product itself has a nice format guaranteeing 1 optic preview rookie per pack (4 pink and either 2 red wave or blue scope). That adds a ton of value with 2024’s rookie class. I decided to give in and try my local walmart Friday night when I left work. I found 23 boxes there and didn’t want to grab half and miss a chance at a Downtown so I grabbed them all. Here’s the haul from 23 boxes! ![]() . . . . . . . . . . . . I hit all of the big QBs in Pink but that was sort of expected in that many boxes. I didn’t do too hot on the red wave parallels though…then I hit this literally in the very last Mega Box! . . . . . . . . . . . . ![]() I was so stoked with the hit and I kept watching posts online from others seeing a great return. QuickNFLRips had 9 videos posted on YouTube with him hitting Downtown after Downtown and that inspired me to get out and see what I could find in the wild at a few other Walmarts/Targets. The first Walmart I hit didn’t have any so I proceeded to the next. I found a fresh batch of 20 at the second one and a guy was there and he grabbed two of them. I figured I had a good chance at the case hit so I grabbed the rest. I didn’t want to get too deep if the value wasn’t there so I decided to rip them out in the car and then make the determination if I wanted to try anymore. I went through all 18 of them and didn’t see a downtown in the batch. It made me think that guy that grabbed two had the lucky pick. I did however pull 2 Jayden Daniels Red Waves and a Pink, a Caleb Williams Red Wave and a pink, and a few other QB pinks. All in all I felt okay with it considering there wasn’t a downtown in there. I went to the next walmart and didn’t see any, checked Barnes & Noble and nothing. Didn’t see anything at Target either. Figured I’d try 2 more Walmarts and I found 10 sitting at one of them. I grabbed all 10. I didn’t hit a Downtown in those either but did get extremely lucky and hit another Jayden Daniels Red Wave and Pink parallel…along with a few more QB pinks. All in all I felt okay with the overall value. I found a Target that had 4 with the Blue Scope parallels but didn’t get much value out of those. I also found a single box a GameStop and it didn’t have anything worth noting. All in all I busted 33 boxes and figured I came close to even. . . . . . . . . ![]() . . . . . . . . . . . Though I pulled the amazing JD Downtown the night prior, I just wasn’t feeling content since I didn’t hit another downtown in that many boxes. I decided to head to the casino and use some free play they sent me. I swore I wouldn’t drop another penny in 2025 after seeing last year’s win/loss report. My luck has been horrendous there but since we were talking FREE PLAY, I figured why not. I ended up winning just short of $1K in 15 minutes and then decided to eat a free meal on the house and leave before I gave it all back. I got home and decided to get a run in before sorting those 33 boxes and shortly after I got started, I stumbled across the “Missing” Downtown from that 18 box break. No idea how I missed it but when I saw it, it brought extreme satisfaction! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ![]() . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Then the very next box as I was sorting and sleeving everything…this one popped out! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ![]() I was in complete disbelief that not only to I miss 1 Downtown…..I missed a second one…and to top it off, it was my second Jayden Daniels. For a brief second I started wondering if I got ran over while I went on my run earlier because it seemed like I was in a fantasy. I’m still in complete shock. This morning when I woke up I had to take another look just to make sure I wasn’t fantasizing or dreaming this whole thing up. To top it off, both Jayden Daniels look flawless and that’s quite opposite of how my luck has been with my bigger hits. This was my 1 big win from busting retail and it actually gave me a glimmer of hope that retail could actually be good once again. Donruss Mega for the WIN! ![]() |
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#2 |
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nice break! How rare are the downtowns?
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#3 |
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Thanks! From everything I’ve been seeing, they fall 1 per 20 box case on average. I’ve seen a break where they didn’t hit one in a case though…and there are some cases where people have pulled 2. My last 2 came from the same walmart and they put out 20…so I’m assuming it was a sealed case.
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#5 |
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Each box comes 6 Optic Rated Rookie Previews. Depending on the format, you get 4 pink and either 2 red wave or blue scope parallels.
From what I’ve seen so far: Target - $45 (Blue Scope) Walmart - $50 (Red Wave) Best Buy - $50 (Red Wave) Ace Hardware - $55 (Red Wave) Game Stop - $60 (Red Wave) The Donruss Megas are probably the funnest and least volatile rip you can have across any NFL retail product. It has major upside with Downtowns as case hits. That checklist features 21 total players with least expensive (Terry Bradshaw) at $250, average $400-$500, and Jayden Daniels sells between $1,200-$1,800 ungraded with the flawless looking one’s commanding the higher price. You also have a shot at some numbered parallels and the SSP Football Emojo Optic Preview which go for a decent amount if you can hit one of the top 6 QBs. |
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#6 |
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Join Date: Jan 2025
Posts: 200
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I mean...all due respect, some nice hits here... but after reading this. Not being satisfied with a Jayden Daniels downtown is crazy. Between ripping in your car, going to a casino to get more money for more card breaks...I'm gonna say the hobby isn't the problem, you might have one.
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#7 |
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Join Date: Jan 2021
Posts: 3,559
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Now that it's not socially frowned upon as product is available post-pandemic all the people who cleared shelves back then are just outing themselves lolllll
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#8 | |
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I think you’re taking my post completely out of context. I mentioned I was stoked with the first Jayden Daniels downtown and that’s sort of what kept me going on my Mega tear. Downtown’s are almost guaranteed case hits (20 Megas in a case) and I busted 33 more the next day. 2 Megas shy from a full case at the first spot. I mentioned I got decent value on the break overall and was extremely lucky on my Red Wave Jayden Daniels pulls. That said, there’s a sort of satisfaction when you rip a case and get the value from the case hit that makes the break all that much better and worth it. It was that satisfaction I was missing from the second day of ripping (33 total Megas). Also, I didn’t go to the Casino to get more money for cards. I’m actually doing quite well on money. I went there to use the FREE PLAY and ultimately it helped offset what I spent on cards all together to make the rip even more satisfying. I’ve elected not to donate anymore money to the casino this year and I was able to actually walk away the winner on that visit (playing with house money *FREE PLAY*. There’s always that satisfaction when you get more value from your rip than you spent on the product. I don’t expect to win every time I bust product but over the past couple years, I can’t recall a time where I have even came close to breaking even. I’ve collected as a kid and started back up in 2012 and the ROI was 10x better back then before the COVID boom. As I stated in the intro paragraph, I have reason for why I haven’t been buying in lately but this product release changed my perspective a bit and I figured I’d give it a shot. Luckily the results were great! I was actually pleased with how Panini released this Mega Box format and actually give them props for making a desirable product that doesn’t scream BLOODBATH for anyone breaking it. The quality control is actually really good as well. I will gladly ignore the other comments and keep my response in good taste. Good luck in life! |
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#9 |
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I was actually stationed overseas during the COVID boom so I wouldn’t know the feeling of clearing the shelves out back when the product was liquid gold. It has never been cut throat where I’m at and there’s plenty of product if you look around. Most people don’t know about Donruss Megas and would likely pass on them so I gladly took the bundle to increase my chances at a case hit…who wouldn’t if they had the money to do so?
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#10 | |
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Join Date: Jan 2025
Posts: 200
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#11 |
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Join Date: Mar 2022
Posts: 4,642
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Congrats on the hits. nice stuff!
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#12 |
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Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Locally
Posts: 8,279
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With these type of responses, no wonder people stopped posting here...
CONGRATS OP!!! AnD SHEEEEEEESH how fast and furious were you going to miss two downtowns?!?!?!? LMAOOOO... honestly, it probably was fate, bc if you his that Love you might have stopped instead of keep rolling.
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There's 100 made! Lets hope that one of the .00000001% of the world population that actually own this card decides that today is the day they offer it for sale. |
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#13 |
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Join Date: May 2020
Posts: 53
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Sounds like a pretty fun day.
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#14 | |
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Thanks fellas!
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Haha, you’re probably right. It’s very rare for 2 to come out of a case and to miss both initially was even more crazy. ![]() ![]() |
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#15 |
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Join Date: Jan 2024
Posts: 68
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I ripped 28 megas yesterday and pulled a Caleb, TO and Rome Downtown, a few auto of no on in particular, a Ladd football emoji,, and a Browers to 500. I pulled a nice assortment of optics as well. All in all this is the best product and format i have bought from retail. That is probably why they are not as widely produced as the blasters.
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#16 | |
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#17 |
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Join Date: Feb 2025
Posts: 35
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be interesting to see what 2024 downtowns are worth 5 years from now. From what it looks like the volume/frequency is, I'm amazed that they are sort of holding good value and have only fallen some. There are just sooooooo many of them.
buying retail 2024 donruss(just because of the downtown frequency and what they still sell for) is by far the best average return of any product the last several years imo. Seems like most retail products run in the 15-20% range. If downtown frequency is anything close to what people are saying(ie 1 on average every blaster or mega case), the return oon average is probably more like 70%. I don't think the downtown frequency is that high(because that would be insane and I think people quote the hobby frequency and get it confused with the retail frequency), but it wouldn't shock me if it's 1 out of every 35-40 blasters or so. Which would still be an insanely good return and have me wondering how the hell these are maintaining value if they are this common. I mean these just don't seem that rare lol.... |
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#18 | |
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Join Date: Jan 2025
Location: SW USA
Posts: 976
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![]() You did pretty well (but downtown prices are crazy based on past years' rarity... not realizing there is at least 3x or probably 5x supply of last year... plus the uptowns now also). It's very hard to rip that much retail and even break even or gain a bit (again, if you sell now). Congrats.
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#19 |
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But were you sweating?
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The Paul Skenes Debut Patch was never pulled |
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#20 |
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To answer the downtown question—I remember paying 45$ for my 2018 optic Lamar PSA 10 in 2019. 145$ for Allen. Was cussing myself when I spent 250 on Baker. Never got around to getting a Brady PSA 10 until they were 1200$. I wish the had Mahomes in them that year. I think these are going to hold value. Some guys are hyped up and will go down after the hobby moves on from them—but these are going to be popular for a long time or until profit isn’t the motivation and people stop liking shinny things.
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#21 | |
Temporarily Suspended
Join Date: Jan 2025
Location: SW USA
Posts: 976
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Even the silver prizms, optic holo, downtown, mosaics, etc are getting printed BIGTIME. It'll be the 2024 rook QBs' skill versus the amount printed. We'll find out in a few years. It does help 2024 that the 2025 QB class is pretty horribly bad... and 2026 likely won't be too much better (esp if Arch Manning's not amazing as hyped to be at Texas and/or in pros).
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"The problem with quotes on the internet is that you can never be sure that they're authentic." - Abraham Lincoln |
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