What goes up, must come down..

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

Vintage is doing fine!

[JoshMN]

I gotta keep checking the dates on this thread. It's like deja vu all over again. I almost forgot about the "vintage is fine" stage of the thread, but there it is.

Next will come the people who want to argue that 1) vintage is not fine or 2) even if vintage is fine, it doesn't matter because nobody collects vintage anymore because it is too expensive and the players are no longer playing.

Then the arguments go back to modern and we all learn that the people having a tough time are probably just making really crappy decisions.

The other line of argument is that the only thing preventing prices from actually dropping is "can't take a loss bro" and/or shill bidding.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by JoshMN

I gotta keep checking the dates on this thread. It's like deja vu all over again. I almost forgot about the "vintage is fine" stage of the thread, but there it is.

Next will come the people who want to argue that 1) vintage is not fine or 2) even if vintage is fine, it doesn't matter because nobody collects vintage anymore because it is too expensive and the players are no longer playing.

Then the arguments go back to modern and we all learn that the people having a tough time are probably just making really crappy decisions.

The other line of argument is that the only thing preventing prices from actually dropping is "can't take a loss bro" and/or shill bidding.

We haven’t even had the full “breakers are ruining everything” ten page discussion yet!

[Poorboy]

breakers ruining everything lol

[Twalk1975]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

We haven’t even had the full “breakers are ruining everything” ten page discussion yet!

This one just bypassed that stage and went straight into financial advice.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Sort of like someone who would be ignorant enough to call everybody who sells cards a non-collector.

“Collectors” are simply people that amass something; “hobbyists” can also amass something, but the difference by definition is that they don’t try to profit from it if they do.

Can you elaborate upon your statement with this definition in mind?

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

is that actually true?

Your index post from last year kinda says otherwise

It depends on time frame. The bulk of the drop started in April 2021 and lasted until about May of 2024. Comparing now to say Novemeber it is much higher (probably on the order of 30%). Comparing year over year I'm sure it is up. Updating the Index is on my to do list for this little break so I'll know for sure and the magnitude in a few days.

I can say with absolute certainty that my sales are much stronger than a year ago. Even controlling for the time of year (this should be right about peak) my sales are stronger than 2024 (by double!), 2023, and 2022. Stuff is flying off the shelves like crazy.

It was to the point that I was having a hard time keeping my inventory up even before Spring Training started. At that time the big reason was because I selling more big cards than I was winning. Since ST started the business has been somewhat neglected (as usual)....yet my sales are even stronger than a month ago!

I'm seeing it on both sides. My win% on snipes is way down, my scroll right over % is way up (not something I actually track, just feel), and the cards I do win are much closer to my max bid (again, just feel here).

Originally Posted by rms13

Maybe on the high end. My experience trying to sell lower end numbered cards of stars, HOF, future HOF guys is quite the opposite. Stuff still sells but I'm getting a lot less then I was over the past few years for comparable cards.

I don't have any problem selling lower end #'d cards of stars and HOF. If it gets too low (say $2 + shipping) the problem is the expenses, but those $5-$20 cards are moving quickly for me, and very profitable.

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

I've always found low end to be way more liquid than high end

Absolutely^^^ That said, I am still selling the lower $ stuff much faster this year than I did last year.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

“Collectors” are simply people that amass something; “hobbyists” can also amass something, but the difference by definition is that they don’t try to profit from it if they do.



Can you elaborate upon your statement with this definition in mind?

I don't elaborate on made-up definitions by someone with an agenda. Just replace "non-collectors" with "non-hobbyists" in my original statement. They are the same, whether the MTP homemade dictionary agrees or not.

If anything, a collector is less likely to sell something than a hobbyist, because one can participate in a hobby by buying and selling, but collecting, by definition, is acquiring. Like I said, ignorance.

[Rooftop]

Would not want to be in the breaking business in the near future

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by Rooftop

Would not want to be in the breaking business in the near future

depends if youve already bent the knee or not

[SaveMeTheGum]

Keep dropping!!! My PC needs are getting filled!

[queonda]

Box prices are higher now than a couple months ago. For example, $500 for 2024 finest!!

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by queonda

Box prices are higher now than a couple months ago. For example, $500 for 2024 finest!!

That’s insane.

It’s the start of the baseball season and Johns are getting hot flashes.

[solt0131]

Anyone interested in selling out, please send me a message. I'm buying.

[tjforce]

Some sky high prices in last night's Fanatics Premier.

Skenes for $1.1MM
Jeter SP for $320k

Basketball and Football did well also.

For this thread, I hand out the Chicken Little Award:

[Triple B]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

I don't elaborate on made-up definitions by someone with an agenda. Just replace "non-collectors" with "non-hobbyists" in my original statement. They are the same, whether the MTP homemade dictionary agrees or not.

If anything, a collector is less likely to sell something than a hobbyist, because one can participate in a hobby by buying and selling, but collecting, by definition, is acquiring. Like I said, ignorance.

Why do you even bother? Dude's in an echo chamber.

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by solt0131

Anyone interested in selling out, please send me a message. I'm buying.

I've made multiple trips to my local consignor recently. Even broke a set up to sell an Ohtani rookie auto.

[PapaStu]

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

I've made multiple trips to my local consignor recently. Even broke a set up to sell an Ohtani rookie auto.

PuddleMonkey sells harder that we do now too? Sonofa

[solt0131]

Originally Posted by PapaStu

PuddleMonkey sells harder that we do now too? Sonofa

Because according to him, his cards are going to be worthless here soon.

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by PapaStu

PuddleMonkey sells harder that we do now too? Sonofa

I'm better at everything, which shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone anymore.

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by solt0131

Because according to him, his cards are going to be worthless here soon.

You're twisting the plot again.

[ScooterD]

Genuine questions for PuddleMonkey:

What’s your goal with these ongoing posts to spread your opinion that the hobby/business is dying?

Are you trying to warn people about the crashing market? Do you want to just be known as the person who called it early and is smart? Both?

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

Genuine questions for PuddleMonkey:

Everyone should know by now I don't do genuine questions. With that being said I'm feeling generous today.

Originally Posted by ScooterD

What’s your goal with these ongoing posts to spread your opinion that the hobby/business is dying?

The hobby isn't going to die, there's going to be people in the hobby no matter what happens just like there has been the last 100 plus years. It is going to take an considerable hit though. Prices, actual prices not shilled or imaginary, on key cards will be scaled back. Flagship wax will look to be holding its value from the outside but you'll start to see much more of it left on shelves and bigger sales during holidays like Black Friday. The print runs will decrease.

Originally Posted by ScooterD

Are you trying to warn people about the crashing market? Do you want to just be known as the person who called it early and is smart? Both?

I don't really care what people do with their time or money. We have a lot of collectors that feel like they've been priced out of the market and some have been vocal about it. If they just bide their time they'll be able to re-enter if they choose to. If they're degens they may have to wait for a little regulation on breaking or repacks to happen. Either way, there are no rocket emojis attached to the card market right now, more like parachutes.




Prediction Time - I've got this card shop on my side of town that's been there to my knowledge at least 3 years. It might be much longer but I don't travel that road much. Anyway, I predict he's no longer there in 2-3 years from now. I've never been in the shop, too many Pokemon decals on the window for me. I've only played this game once before with a local shop, about 10-15 years ago, I'm one for one. It was a firearms shop that had been in business 20+ years. I knew much more about his business than I do any card shop around here so it was an easy call for me. Business owner was on the forum and basically chimed in to call me an idiot. I won't go into more detail unless you guys want me to.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

I see Panini, Upper Deck, Magic, and Pokemon logos, but no Topps.

[PuddleMonkey]

Google photo of the inside: