2019-20 NT FOTL

[ksp6687]

Originally Posted by Jpayne7787

A brand new car or a box of FOTL NT 🤷🏻#@♂️ Would a Ja RPA even cover half of that? Doubt it

The Ja FOTL RPA is a 20k+ card

[Miz]

Originally Posted by ballhawkdawk

I just took a quick look on ebay for sold listings of 2018-19 National Treasures and sorted by price, high to low.

Cards above $15k: 5 Luka RPAs, D Wade Logoman auto, SGA Logoman auto. Trae Young is only fetching $9k - $11k. For 2017-18 it's 2 Tatum RPAs and an AD Logoman auto. I'm not saying there aren't other hits in these boxes that can go over $15k, and obviously there are 10ish cards in a box, but this gives at least some perspective on what kind of odds you're facing to recover the cost of the box by opening.

Well in this 66 cards will for sure be over 15 k..zion and ja...then every other box has an additional rpa so a few more boxes will have true zion and ja rpas...coby white will be close..not 15 but in the realm...id say 100 bixes make money or damn close...1 im 13 chance

[regularp]

Originally Posted by Miz

Well in this 66 cards will for sure be over 15 k..zion and ja...then every other box has an additional rpa so a few more boxes will have true zion and ja rpas...coby white will be close..not 15 but in the realm...id say 100 bixes make money or damn close...1 im 13 chance

If Coby White is "in the realm" of $15K, whoever is paying that needs to be disowned by their parents and publicly slapped.

[tmar214]

Whats with the assumption that these will sell for 15k. Last years were readily available at 7500 as of last week while hobby boxes were selling for 4k. While these might a bit better than last year are they really twice as good? I'd expect these to come close to the floor. Last year had 48 names in the rpa checklist. If its the same this year we would be looking at 1584 boxes. Where is this 25 million coming from?

Breakers and stores aren't going to care about having this. A huge glut of products are coming out. Everyone is going to get completely destroyed other than potentially 1 lucky person who hits a huge rpa. Whats the point of burning out their customers. Maybe the top few go for it along with the huge online retailers but is a single person on this forum willing to pay even 12k for one of these?

[armyml]

Originally Posted by tmar214

Whats with the assumption that these will sell for 15k. Last years were readily available at 7500 as of last week while hobby boxes were selling for 4k. While these might a bit better than last year are they really twice as good? I'd expect these to come close to the floor. Last year had 48 names in the rpa checklist. If its the same this year we would be looking at 1584 boxes. Where is this 25 million coming from?

Breakers and stores aren't going to care about having this. A huge glut of products are coming out. Everyone is going to get completely destroyed other than potentially 1 lucky person who hits a huge rpa. Whats the point of burning out their customers. Maybe the top few go for it along with the huge online retailers but is a single person on this forum willing to pay even 12k for one of these?

Not me thats for sure, but then again I thought I was a fool for buying a single box of non FOTL NT last year for $1250. At that price point TODAY I'd be buying cases.

[ExpFacilitators]

Originally Posted by tmar214

Whats with the assumption that these will sell for 15k. Last years were readily available at 7500 as of last week while hobby boxes were selling for 4k. While these might a bit better than last year are they really twice as good? I'd expect these to come close to the floor. Last year had 48 names in the rpa checklist. If its the same this year we would be looking at 1584 boxes. Where is this 25 million coming from?

Breakers and stores aren't going to care about having this. A huge glut of products are coming out. Everyone is going to get completely destroyed other than potentially 1 lucky person who hits a huge rpa. Whats the point of burning out their customers. Maybe the top few go for it along with the huge online retailers but is a single person on this forum willing to pay even 12k for one of these?

I keep thinking that stores/breakers won’t want to bankrupt their customers with garbage breaks but I am always wrong. Never underestimate how greedy and myopic people are.

The casino model is the same. You can sheer a sheep as many times as you want but you can only skin them once.

Eventually you run out of people who want a 4 box break of Prizm Choice for $3,000 and they get $150 in cards. But i watch it nightly on YouTube.

I can’t even imagine how the long-run looks when you consider how many wannabe big players are gambling on credit cards, etc. as someone who loves to gamble (at least before the pandemic), I understand the impulse. The card market has everything the casino does and has an analogue for every personality archetype.

People who pay for someone else to “break” a single pack of Bowman 1st edition are just like the guys at the craps table who bring in $12 in one dollar bills and wait for their turn to shoot the dice.

But unlike casinos that put hundreds of millions into “reinvestment” (that’s what they call those offers you get in the mail. I love the term.), these big breakers offering the occasional 1% discount or “hit points” don’t have a sustainable model unless prices come back down.

People are in the process of losing their homes over this stuff. I’m convinced. But of course there is nothing but selection bias on forums. No one is going to admit it. And that’s no different than the guy who’s down $10,000 at the craps table and his wife comes over to ask how it’s going....

“Down a little. Pretty close to even”.

They ALL say it. And they are all lying.

[Orangejello727]

Im going to try and score 2 @ 15k using a 30 yr layaway term

[Digerati]

I asked for a FOTL loan at my bank today. Denied.

[mossoholic]

People comparing this to gambling at a casino is laughable. Almost every casino game the house edge is between 2-10%. Gambling on NT FOTL the house has a much bigger edge than the worst odds casino game will ever have.

[RogerGodahell]

Originally Posted by RedMike

I know i'm probably going to be wrong - but it is absurd to me that someone would even pay 7500 for 1 box of this.

I agree, but then you've got MLB players and other rich people who open boxes endlessly like Phil's Pulls. He has a great youtube channel btw if anyone hasn't seen it yet.

[ballhawkdawk]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

People comparing this to gambling at a casino is laughable. Almost every casino game the house edge is between 2-10%. Gambling on NT FOTL the house has a much bigger edge than the worst odds casino game will ever have.

This. Probably have better luck, on average, with $15k in scratch offs. Or however much it ends up being.

[ExpFacilitators]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

People comparing this to gambling at a casino is laughable. Almost every casino game the house edge is between 2-10%. Gambling on NT FOTL the house has a much bigger edge than the worst odds casino game will ever have.

It’s not the magnitude that makes the comparison, it’s the psychology/brain chemistry.

[RyanMW]

Can't wait to see what ridiculous prices breakers like Layton set their random team prices at per case. It'll probably approach $2k. Must be nice.

[k13]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

When buying RPAs, remember:

Jimmy Butler, 5 time All-Star and 3 time All-NBA, has a $400 RPA. If lucky, 2 guys of this class will be above that.

But when they first come out they will be $1000+

Rj barrett
Coby white
Redish
Rui
Etc.

If you are breaking you dont care about the future.

[Brobocop]

What’s crazy to me is how much Ja and Zion command in prices when we haven’t even seen a full season from them. At least with Luka, we had a season to watch him. Paying this much money for rookies always just seems like a giant gamble. All those Jordan, Kobe, or LeBron cards you could buy. It’s astounding to me.

[RogerGodahell]

Originally Posted by Brobocop

What’s crazy to me is how much Ja and Zion command in prices when we haven’t even seen a full season from them. At least with Luka, we had a season to watch him. Paying this much money for rookies always just seems like a giant gamble. All those Jordan, Kobe, or LeBron cards you could buy. It’s astounding to me.

I agree with pretty much everything you said. But, people love the new stuff. People will always chase older vets and HOFers. Then there's the other half or maybe even more who love ripping packs and busting boxes chasing the next HOF players.

It is getting tougher to buy rookies at a decent price though. And you're right it is a big gamble. But I guess if you hit you can hit pretty big and that's what keeps making people do it. Everyone's chasing the next LeBron looking at his prices now hoping they can have the same in 10-15 years.

[RogerGodahell]

I also believe that everything is connected or tied together. What I mean is those old players wouldn't be as valuable if the newer players didn't increase at the rate they are. Sure they'd still be worth something but not like they are right now. It works both ways really. A big part of the reason the newer guys are worth so much is because their prices are already being compare to those guys mentioned, the HOF players. They've got a long ways to go to get there if they ever do, but the prices are already being factored in. They push each other to higher levels. The HOF players keep increasing because the younger guys keep increasing. That's how I see it anyways. Especially lately.

[daviswr7]

Originally Posted by flashinitup

I can already hear the Layton Sports Cards guy in my head right now. Trying to get people excited for a subpar hit.

MFIONDU.......KAPENGELE......R.....P......A. Out of /99. BOOOOOOOMMMMMM!

"Grats" on the hit there BigBob259. I'll get that out first thing in the morning".

BigBob259 in the chatroom making screaming Emojis because he just got double fisted on his $2500 break spot.

Honestly this is my vote for post of the year. Thx for that. Still laughing now.

[sethc1020]

Originally Posted by tmar214

Whats with the assumption that these will sell for 15k. Last years were readily available at 7500 as of last week while hobby boxes were selling for 4k. While these might a bit better than last year are they really twice as good? I'd expect these to come close to the floor. Last year had 48 names in the rpa checklist. If its the same this year we would be looking at 1584 boxes. Where is this 25 million coming from?

Better than last year??? Give me Luka and Trae over Zion and Ja all day long!! Plus the FOTL RPA is now up to /30 where last years were /20. In my book its a worse product for 10-20x the initial cost of last years. Craziness!!

[solt0131]

Does this make Hobby boxes at least 5k now? Seeing that FOTL will be a minimum of $7,500.

[tmar214]

Originally Posted by sethc1020

Better than last year??? Give me Luka and Trae over Zion and Ja all day long!! Plus the FOTL RPA is now up to /30 where last years were /20. In my book its a worse product for 10-20x the initial cost of last years. Craziness!!

The added content this year is quite a bit better. While the RPA are /30 instead of /20 you now get an additional RPA every other box vs almost never in 2018.
Wasn't really commenting on the two draft classes although this years wax seems to be selling for a bit more.


I wouldn't be surprised if this is the release resellers really get crushed on. Its a lot of boxes and the pool of buyers gets real thin once we are talking 10k+ per box. At some point people get tired of the never ending FOTL releases.

[KhalDrogo]

Have to see what that extra RPA is. Are they going to load them with horizontals, or is it going to be a mix? There should be 1300-1400 boxes. Throwing in 650-700 extra RPAs devalues the hobby version, so I think they would be wise not to use up the good stuff in FOTL.

[sethc1020]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Have to see what that extra RPA is. Are they going to load them with horizontals, or is it going to be a mix? There should be 1300-1400 boxes. Throwing in 650-700 extra RPAs devalues the hobby version, so I think they would be wise not to use up the good stuff in FOTL.

I agree, I would bet that the additional RPA is going to be a horizontal or something similar rather than the "true" RPA.

[The Accountant]

This product is truly made for the gamblers this year. Best of luck to those.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Throwing in 650-700 extra RPAs devalues the hobby version,

Absolutely correct.

The past 2 years it's been roughly 2-2.5x Hobby depending on the RPAs you pulled from a case (generally 2).

If those RPAs get moved over to FOTL and fall every other box IN ADDITION to the FOTL RPA, then the "value" in FOTL becomes closer to 3.5x-4x.

Would you rather buy a single case of NT and pull 1 RPA or a FOTL Box with a guaranteed RPA + a 50/50 shot at a second?