@itsvegasdave “The Sports Card Market Will Collapse”

[bubbs11]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

because it will happen. just not sure if its this week, this month, in 87 years or before then

what does not strike me as odd is that "physical" items are "coming around" again

life is circular

fingers are crossed for beanie babies

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by Zhamlau

Doesn’t it strike people as odd that cards, comics, comic art, coins, autographs, and fine art have all seen substantial if not exponential growth over the last 2-3 years? When factoring in things like real estate and stocks growth as well. Doesn’t this seem odd to anyone else?

Isn’t this just all a massive asset bubble? There don’t seem to be any losers in these markets to offset the winners. That strikes me as wildly dangerous in terms of long term value. Why do I think a massive across the board correction is coming...

If this happens to be true (and I sure hope it’s not!)..... what would be left / gold?

[Zhamlau]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

If this happens to be true (and I sure hope it’s not!)..... what would be left / gold?

Gold 3 years ago this time was like 1350/Oz and now it’s 1850/Oz roughly.

12% rate of growth annual. That’s just phenomenal strong consistent growth not mind blowing...but again it’s gold so maybe that is insane considering how long people have been buying/selling/producing(mining) it.

It just feels odd.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by Zhamlau

Doesn’t it strike people as odd that cards, comics, comic art, coins, autographs, and fine art have all seen substantial if not exponential growth over the last 2-3 years? When factoring in things like real estate and stocks growth as well. Doesn’t this seem odd to anyone else?

Isn’t this just all a massive asset bubble? There don’t seem to be any losers in these markets to offset the winners. That strikes me as wildly dangerous in terms of long term value. Why do I think a massive across the board correction is coming...

It is odd. I was going to buy a home this year but decided to wait. Everything can't continue to go up. That being said, there is also no way that the entire hobby crashes either. The most likely crash will be wax (which needs to happen anyway for us to be able to afford it again), and probably non-numbered base rookies, especially graded. When PSA/BGS catches up with orders there will be an abundance of gem mint base rookies in the market which will keep prices relatively low. But none of this is unhealthy per se. You can still have a healthy card market where wax is affordable and base rookies do not carry any insane premium.

[kyle1707]

Originally Posted by Zhamlau

Doesn’t it strike people as odd that cards, comics, comic art, coins, autographs, and fine art have all seen substantial if not exponential growth over the last 2-3 years? When factoring in things like real estate and stocks growth as well. Doesn’t this seem odd to anyone else?

Isn’t this just all a massive asset bubble? There don’t seem to be any losers in these markets to offset the winners. That strikes me as wildly dangerous in terms of long term value. Why do I think a massive across the board correction is coming...

Sports card market has been wonderful for last 20 years imo

The thing that gets me the most about this bubble is

Mahomes and Luka stand out

They have been in the league for 3-4 years

They have cards that sell for a quarter million dollars

Or mahomes base prizm rookie Psa 10 is 15 k ?

Maybe I’m wrong. But I just don’t understand how this will stay this way ?

It reminds me of project 2020. It just has that feel on not reality

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

Sports card market has been wonderful for last 20 years imo

The thing that gets me the most about this bubble is

Mahomes and Luka stand out

They have been in the league for 3-4 years

They have cards that sell for a quarter million dollars

Or mahomes base prizm rookie Psa 10 is 15 k ?

Maybe I’m wrong. But I just don’t understand how this will stay this way ?

It reminds me of project 2020. It just has that feel on not reality

Luka and Mahomes are both freaks with some very rare cards- the combo gets you to $250k very quickly

[Bcr]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

Sports card market has been wonderful for last 20 years imo

The thing that gets me the most about this bubble is

Mahomes and Luka stand out

They have been in the league for 3-4 years

They have cards that sell for a quarter million dollars

Or mahomes base prizm rookie Psa 10 is 15 k ?

Maybe I’m wrong. But I just don’t understand how this will stay this way ?

It reminds me of project 2020. It just has that feel on not reality

Until Luka and Mahomes solidify themselves as all times great I would stay away at the current prices. Are they on pace, sure... But a lot of players have been really great and all it takes is one injury.

There are going to be a lot more people getting burned investing in these prices than winners.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Bcr

Until Luka and Mahomes solidify themselves as all times great I would stay away at the current prices.

So I shouldn't buy cards of my favorite players?

People tried making the same argument thousands of dollars ago. Glad I didn't listen then.

[Bcr]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

So I shouldn't buy cards of my favorite players?



People tried making the same argument thousands of dollars ago. Glad I didn't listen then.

You can buy whatever you want so it doesn't matter to me. Just because I like a player doesn't mean I'm going to spend an insane amount on their cards though. Especially when there's a good chance I can get their card cheaper in the future.

The prices for everything have jumped so high so fast that prices will come back down eventually for most cards. Mahomes and Luka could be worth even thousands more in the coming year, but nobody really knows. All is fueled by speculation based on current performances.


Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[pewe]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

So I shouldn't buy cards of my favorite players?

People tried making the same argument thousands of dollars ago. Glad I didn't listen then.

You don’t make money by following conventional wisdom

On the other hand, it is sad there isn’t a mechanism to “short” a sports card, so you can see the real market sentiment. Would be fascinating if both sides could put $$$ where their mouth is.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ThoseBackPages]

we are old heads

its not 2016 anymore

[ThoseBackPages]

to todays generation, 1K is not "a lot" of money

[discodanman45]

The fact is this. Some of the people collecting cards right now are young and filthy rich. With youtube stars, athletes, rappers, and reality stars all jumping into the card collecting community this may be the new norm. I think most people here think the market is based on fake borrowed money, which is mostly false IMO. The rich people buying these cards would rather buy a slabbed PSA card instead of a piece of art. For people thinking this will crash, you may never be able to afford these cards again until it becomes uncool. Sneakerheads have been around for awhile now, if something is perceived as "cool" it can extend for a long period of time.
. Markets now are driven by celebrities and many celebrities with huge cash are in the game.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

The fact is this. Some of the people collecting cards right now are young and filthy rich. With youtube stars, athletes, rappers, and reality stars all jumping into the card collecting community this may be the new norm. I think most people here think the market is based on fake borrowed money, which is mostly false IMO. The rich people buying these cards would rather buy a slabbed PSA card instead of a piece of art. For people thinking this will crash, you may never be able to afford these cards again until it becomes uncool. Sneakerheads have been around for awhile now, if something is perceived as "cool" it can extend for a long period of time.
. Markets now are driven by celebrities and many celebrities with huge cash are in the game.

If this were true, people would not have to continually flip to stay in the hobby.

Or get excited by 1% ebay bucks.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

If this were true, people would not have to continually flip to stay in the hobby.

Or get excited by 1% ebay bucks.

The big purchases don't change hands that often, just like expensive art, coins, or any collectible. The flipping is done for modern cards based on daily performance. However, to really get a grasp of the hobby I think we need to look at older cards. I think looking at the rookies of Rickey Henderson, George Brett, and even older vintage tell us what is really going on here. 99% of modern cards will burst, but you can't say it is a bubble. How many of these rookie sensations will continue to perform and become the next Mike Trout, Derek Jeter, Mike Schmidt, etc...? History tells us out of Acuna, Guerrero, Tatis, Franco, and all the other young stars that only one of them has the chance to be remembered like Ken Griffey Jr. However, people love the gamble and many will lose big over this.

People love gambling and that hobby has been around forever. Do people stop gambling because they are losing money? Nope, they gamble for the excitement and possibility. As long as card collecting is popular this phenomena we are seeing will continue. Card collecting is popular for kids 8 to senior citizens right now. What other hobby has this breadth of a collecting base?

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

The big purchases don't change hands that often, just like expensive art, coins, or any collectible. The flipping is done for modern cards based on daily performance. However, to really get a grasp of the hobby I think we need to look at older cards. I think looking at the rookies of Rickey Henderson, George Brett, and even older vintage tell us what is really going on here. 99% of modern cards will burst, but you can't say it is a bubble. How many of these rookie sensations will continue to perform and become the next Mike Trout, Derek Jeter, Mike Schmidt, etc...? History tells us out of Acuna, Guerrero, Tatis, Franco, and all the other young stars that only one of them has the chance to be remembered like Ken Griffey Jr. However, people love the gamble and many will lose big over this.

People love gambling and that hobby has been around forever. Do people stop gambling because they are losing money? Nope, they gamble for the excitement and possibility. As long as card collecting is popular this phenomena we are seeing will continue. Card collecting is popular for kids 8 to senior citizens right now. What other hobby has this breadth of a collecting base?

“Big purchases”?

I do think you’re mixing up gambling and collecting unnecessarily.

People do stop gambling when they run out of money, find a more profitable game or run out of people to play with.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

People do stop gambling when they run out of money, find a more profitable game or run out of people to play with.

You are thinking of a person that gambles reasonably. There are a lot of gamblers that will gamble their lives away and still continue to gamble after they lost their house, family, etc...

Popularity is what drives markets. We will see what happens, predicting the future one way or another is impossible. You can definitely try to look at bubbles in the past and compare it to this, but it doesn't mean that it will follow. People have become millionaires from youtube, instagram, and tik-tok. The economy is different than it has ever been.

[k13]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

If this were true, people would not have to continually flip to stay in the hobby.

Or get excited by 1% ebay bucks.

Or continually scamming/ripping people off.
Trying to low ball you on anything possible.
Most have bunch of cards and no money. I know a lot of them.

Guys with 20 Luka's that can't pay their rent.
Some with supposed 400k in cards but have no car.

I could go on.

What percentage of "sales" on Ebay are actually "paid" for when it comes to pwcc/probstein. Pwcc won't even show users bids anymore.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by k13

Or continually scamming/ripping people off.
Trying to low ball you on anything possible.
Most have bunch of cards and no money. I know a lot of them.

The people I know that collect cards make over $100,000 a year and are having a blast with it without it affecting their finances. I know a lot of them.

[PDCCollectibles]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

The people I know that collect cards make over $100,000 a year and are having a blast with it without it affecting their finances. I know a lot of them.

This, 100%....

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

The people I know that collect cards make over $100,000 a year and are having a blast with it without it affecting their finances. I know a lot of them.

This is far too generic a statement for it to have value.

[ThoseBackPages]

i think the real question is, if you're a collector that has been collecting for some time, why dont you own Patty and Luka?

if you dont collect non-Baseball, thats fine, but then dont worry about what non-baseball is selling for

[Stifle]

Originally Posted by lauriontj

Please sell your Sotos now (so I can buy them!)


@itsvegasdave

Is anybody sure this isn't Bob Metcalfe ? Maybe the internet will go Supernova as well ?

[HOFAutoRookies]

There is no damn bubble. Chill. Do due diligence, be smart and research. You'll be more than fine.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by HOFAutoRookies

There is no damn bubble. Chill. Do due diligence, be smart and research. You'll be more than fine.

but, but, but