The Official Options Thread

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by lane121

What/when I traded:

3 SPY 549C contracts @ 11:18:26 (or 10:18:26 cst)

Thought process and reason for entering trade:

Slower selling volume on 10:45 and 11:00 SPY volume (9:45 and 10:00 cst) + SPY confluence and it looked like a break+retest of 5502 ATR w/ 5500 as the safety net. At the time of entering, buyers were in control too so I thought there were lots of confirmations for a higher probability trade.

Exit plan:

I actually didn't like the way the candle closed on the 1 minute after I had entered (still had about 30 seconds to close, but I was getting the retest atm).

Cut at the break below of 5500 instead of waiting for a 5 min to close (drops can happen quickly in this scenario and I've gotten smoked with a 5+ pt drop in a matter of seconds lol).

Where I sold:

I sold all 3 contracts for a loss when we broke below 5500 for a $51 loss.

I've gotten cooked on a similar trade to this one before (ATR 2-3 pts above whole psych). However, last time I was going against raising sellers and not at SPY for confluence. I also didn't wait for a break+retest last time of the ATR, so I thought this may be a higher probability trade.

After getting out of this trade, I looked to get in puts with volume confirming sellers were taking over the current SPY candle. We retested the 5502 ATR, but I was waiting for a 5500 break+retest to enter, though it did not occur.

ATR but also volume + flow. Flow was selling @ that level.

Add to that 5600 is a "weaker" level. I tried to look in the thread and couldn't find it. Think I mentioned it in a DM when the level keeps breaking up/down it's still a level, just a weak support/resistance level.

[ajlaxmn]

Waited for data to drop at 10, saw the pump up, but didn't see a point for Put entry i felt comfortable with off the push up. Waited for another entry. Watched SPX drop below and push back above ATR, with either trend and volume not confirming Puts (specifically pump off real low volume). 10:33 watched SPX on the 1m chop around the ATR, however Trend/Volume still weren't confirming Puts as they were opposite each other AND I couldn't get a good break below and reject.

10:40 break below, didn't chase, waited for a CLEAN reject, got with .4 points on 10:33 with trend Red on SPX and SPY volume red. A+ entry.

Managing the trade didn't not go well. (sold too early). mistake might have been staying on the 1m chart, not switching to the 5m. Sold one contract at touch of VWAP, which SPY was getting held up by earlier, then sold 1 contract shortly before touch of preivous close. Sold last at break below previous close. Retrospect should have watced on the 5m, let VWAP get tested (broke through with only a slight bounce), then maybe sold one contract at previous close (even though it broke through). Would have held until 5502 ATR, where I could have sold off my last two OR sold one contract and held runner to stop out in profits.

$163 profit on the day. Patience paid. Managing trades, NEED TO WORK ON.

[Blazed]

Data dropped and fed speakers today.

Lol

Full-time workers: -438K
Part-time workers: +527K

SPX: 5500 key level / 5550 top / 5450 bottom

5562 / 5492 / 5446

Watching:

SPY: reject @ 554 area & bounce @ 543.5

It’s Friday. If no A+ setup, then no trade.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Data dropped and fed speakers today.

Lol




SPX: 5500 key level / 5550 top / 5450 bottom

5562 / 5492 / 5446

Watching:

SPY: reject @ 554 area & bounce @ 543.5

It’s Friday. If no A+ setup, then no trade.

I had the bolded. SPY support you get that off the Daily THEN the hourly for more accurate level or did you go right to the hourly? I see that area on the daily, with the hourly reflecting a more accurate of that area than the daily.


The amount of people on twitter stating that the non-US workers are all illegal and its the great replacement is baffling. Twitter truly is a cesspool. I'm sure foreigners are just harder workers than the average american, illegal or not, so I wouldn't doubt an employer would want to hire them. I could be wrong, just all an assupmtion on my part, not trying to get political at all.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

I had the bolded. SPY support you get that off the Daily THEN the hourly for more accurate level or did you go right to the hourly? I see that area on the daily, with the hourly reflecting a more accurate of that area than the daily.

Yeah, for the SPY bounce I used the 1h and just scrolled until I saw a higher probability support area. Found it on the 14th/15th of last month.

The amount of people on twitter stating that the non-US workers are all illegal and its the great replacement is baffling. Twitter truly is a cesspool. I'm sure foreigners are just harder workers than the average american, illegal or not, so I wouldn't doubt an employer would want to hire them. I could be wrong, just all an assupmtion on my part, not trying to get political at all.

There's some truth to it. I think I remember seeing a gov report on it. Probably easier to see in the south.

But yeah, all social media falls under the cesspool umbrella.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Data dropped and fed speakers today.

Lol




SPX: 5500 key level / 5550 top / 5450 bottom

5562 / 5492 / 5446

Watching:

SPY: reject @ 554 area & bounce @ 543.5

It’s Friday. If no A+ setup, then no trade.

I missed the 5492 bounce.

Testing some puts here @ 5495 for gap fills below. Hard stop @ 5500

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

I missed the 5492 bounce.

Testing some puts here @ 5495 for gap fills below. Hard stop @ 5500

Trimmed @ 12 points. Nice quick drop. Stop still @ 5500 ATR

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Trimmed @ 12 points. Nice quick drop. Stop still @ 5500 ATR

Trimmed @ 5474. 2 runners left for gap. Keeping stop @ 5500 for now.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Trimmed @ 5474. 2 runners left for gap. Keeping stop @ 5500 for now.

2 runners left for gap✅- gap filled and then some. All out.

Could bounce @ 5450/5446 - not trying it though as flow is still selling and every pop is getting sold off.






Easy trade to see forming. Trend was down, volume showed sellers in control and flow was selling.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

NVDA lost the 21.

Should get a bounce @ 106 area then continuation down.

If sellers get aggressive this month NVDA @ 85 is doable.

I'd close my cc position @ 85/90 area.

NVDA almost to 100. Once it breaks, 90/85 area equity add + close out my cc positions.

Would be great if it happened sooner than later.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

NVDA almost to 100. Once it breaks, 90/85 area equity add + close out my cc positions.

Would be great if it happened sooner than later.

What do you have your TV set at in that picture weekly or daily timeframe? Mine doesn't seem to match. I have the 5, 8, 21e and th 50, 100, and 200.

I was trying to follow your comments the other day about breaking and rejecting the ema and moving, but they weren't lining up with mine. Could just simply be the coding for the indicators I have in TV compared to yours, I remember I couldn't find the exact one you have that has BB, EMA, SMA all in one, I found one, but its not the same and has inputs that I am not sure what it results in.

Just curious.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

What do you have your TV set at in that picture weekly or daily timeframe? Mine doesn't seem to match. I have the 5, 8, 21e and th 50, 100, and 200.

I was trying to follow your comments the other day about breaking and rejecting the ema and moving, but they weren't lining up with mine. Could just simply be the coding for the indicators I have in TV compared to yours, I remember I couldn't find the exact one you have that has BB, EMA, SMA all in one, I found one, but its not the same and has inputs that I am not sure what it results in.

Just curious.

1 hour


--------------------------

Edited to add:

My fault I switched it back to the 1 hour. That pic is 1w

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

2 runners left for gap✅- gap filled and then some. All out.

Could bounce @ 5450/5446 - not trying it though as flow is still selling and every pop is getting sold off.






Easy trade to see forming. Trend was down, volume showed sellers in control and flow was selling.

Could bounce @ 5450/5446 - not trying it though as flow is still selling and every pop is getting sold off✅- Flow and volume told the story here. This is why you want to check confirmations even @ whole psych numbers.

Also didn't expect that big of a drop or I would have kept a runner.

[ajlaxmn]

Tough day that I created for myself, only lost $38, but left A LOT of money on the table by falling into the early entry trap that I have avoided the past two weeks, still would have worked out, but I got worried as I've been wrong with this approach many times when I first started trading real funds.

Entered at break below 5486, ATR, filled at $1.91 and about 4 points lower than ATR, as usually immediately moved back up and tested ATR, broke above and held through that but was already on the back foot down $.35 per contract simply because of the horrible entry, I knew it as soon as I entered and I was about to cut as I didn't want to sit through that. Stayed in because volume and trend were red. Cut one contract 5473 (ten point move) however fill was bad so profit was minimal. Had I filled on the 1m at 10:43, clean reject of ATR and Trend/Volume still red, fill would have been around $1.60. SPY slowed down around 5473 area and I kept envisioning the market reversing and pushing back up past ATR (solely just remembering all the times this scenario didn't work out in the past). So I cut when it started pushing up a little, even though I saw pops getting sold, trend, and volume.

Sold last two contracts for $38 loss. levels would have been the Gap, which SPX moved right through, then 5457 ATR, which I'm sure I would have cut there, then could have held a runner as SPX broke below the ATR, then retested and continued to move down. Probably left $500ish on the table. However the profit missed isn't what gets me, its the FOMO trap of entering at break and not waiting for retest, patience is a skill, so is entry. $38 lesson to just miss the trade if I miss and wait for another entry.

Monday is a new day.

[ajlaxmn]

Big data week, big tech conference (can't remember what they call it, only saw an X post about it, NVDA on Wednesday). CPI, Jobless (initial), Consumer Credit (Est. is $3BN more than previously reported), Consumer Sentiment.

Bottom 5400, Key 5450, Top 5500 (Resistance at 5460/61

SPY Resistance 545.52 (lower prob), 547.06 (Higher Prob)
SPY Bounce 536.05

[Blazed]

Data @ 10 and consumer credit @ 3. Should be a great week.

SPX: 5450 key level / 5500 top (break above 5515 > 5520) / 5400 bottom (break below > 5375 & gap @ 5371.2)

Other s/r areas: 5446, 5402, 5376


Watching:

SPY: SPY reject @ 545.12 area & bounce @ 538-538.8

NVDA: reject @ 105 area and a break below 101 could send it below 100. 100 has been a solid level, levels are solid until they aren't.

Good week to watch flow leading up to FOMC. Don't fight any trends and be patient.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Data @ 10 and consumer credit @ 3. Should be a great week.

SPX: 5450 key level / 5500 top (break above 5515 > 5520) / 5400 bottom (break below > 5375 & gap @ 5371.2)

Other s/r areas: 5446, 5402, 5376


Watching:

SPY: SPY reject @ 545.12 area & bounce @ 538-538.8

NVDA: reject @ 105 area and a break below 101 could send it below 100. 100 has been a solid level, levels are solid until they aren't.

Good week to watch flow leading up to FOMC. Don't fight any trends and be patient.

SPY reject @ 545.12❌- took this reject. Filled around 545.5 and continued to push. Cut the position for a $1.6k L. Took it as flow was turning bearish but trend was still green. Gave it some room and cut w/ break above 546. After I cut my position the trade worked out lol.

Watching what SPX does here. Don't really like this level though as it's weak. So a break & retest here could sill smoke you. Might wait on another area.

[Blazed]

By issuing nearly $2T of T-Bills, Janet Yellen succeeded in suppressing bond volatility in an election year. Now - this paper has to be rolled over at much HIGHER yields. The USA is like a financially trapped emerging market country, living on the front end of the yield curve - a VERY dangerous game.

[lane121]

Lol, got cooked today on two trades. All good, anything can happen. First on calls, then on puts. Weird day. Didn't want to fight the trend so took calls at 5456 ATR, then sellers were strong, flow looked bearish and we we got to red on trend (I got in at the retest of 5450 and I was waiting for the ATR after I held through a ton of chop) but we didn't get there.

[ajlaxmn]

Two trades today, $9 profit, hear that boys, Nine. Friggin. Bucks. Get on my level.

First trade I took was at 5456 ATR, Volume, break and retest, trend. Reason it wasn't a good trade was because of the 5460/61 level I had as resistance, to tight of a range to expect good movement, plus it was ahead of data at 10 (didn't move market, however not a good habit to get into). Ended up cutting just before data for a $15 gain.

Second trade I was watching for break below 5450 for Put entry, entered when volume was red, trend was red, SPY broke below VWAP and SPX broke below key level (I entered when SPX broke key level which it had bounced earlier in the day, that was my reason for entry instead of waiting for break and close below and retest, which we got on the next 1m candle, confirming my position). Only two contracts on second trade, sold one at 5442, almost ten point move, was looking for opening print to trim, but couldn't get there and SPY selling volume was getting lower and lower. Cut final contract at break above 5450, however it immediately pushed back down and move to 5435 (past opening print). $15 loss on second trade. No real issues with the entries and management. Need to note the levels better (actually putting alerts in, because today I entered the first trade and then went "Oh sh*t, there's a level right above".

Tomorrow is a new day.

[Blazed]

Took a light size of AAPL calls down here 2 weeks out for the AAPL event.

High risk because it's AAPL and the last event bombed.

[lane121]

What/when I traded:

3 SPY 545C contracts @ 10:25 (or 9:25 cst)

5 SPY 545P contracts @ 10:36 (or 9:36 cst)

Thought process and reason for entering trade:

First trade- Trend was still green, however volume was red. I thought with trend and an ATR 5-6 pts above the whole psych that it was a stronger support than the 3-4 pts we've had the last few days and that it was a good time to test calls when we got back to touch the ATR (it wasn't). Market was still reacting to the data. I did not see flow really buying or selling at this time either.

Second trade: Break and retest of 5450 whole psych w/ a 5456 ATR above. Sellers had stepped in on the 10:15 SPY candle (or 9:15 cst) and had eclipsed the volume for the previous SPY "data bar" and trend was neutral.

Exit plan:

First trade- Out at the close below 5450 on the 5 min

Second trade- Out at close above 5456 ATR on the 5 min

Where I sold:

First trade- I sold all 3 contracts for a loss when we closed below 5450 on SPX 5 min

Second trade- I sold all 5 contracts for a loss when we closed above 5456 ATR

Total loss for the day $485

Errors, general notes, and things to consider moving forward:

The first day back after a big selloff on Friday- it's always good to notate how the market reacts after big days (looking like an up day according to premarket, but things can change quickly).

First trade- The market was still reacting to the data when I entered (no big moves from data initially. Interestingly, we were ticking up as data approached and broke the 5456 ATR). 5469 area is where we experienced momentum loss however and we kept rejecting. I went against volume at the time and I didn't practice a "wait and see" approach (entered towards the end of a 15 minute SPY candle rather than the beginning of one).

Second trade- A slightly better one, but a lack of mental acuity coupled with a disaster of execution resulted in a bigger loss than the first trade. I took some drawdown on this trade with the chop around 5450. Therefore, when we got to a 10pt move the profit was minimal and I did not trim. I looked at my P&L for the first time in a long time in the midst of the chop/drawdown. BIG MISTAKE. DON'T LOOK AT THE P&L. IT WILL BE THE FIRST MISTAKE IN A SERIES OF MISTAKES. I was then waiting for the touch (or close enough to the 5427 ATR to sell). Trend now was red, though sellers continuously were slowing on the 15 min SPY candle. I saw a large order block come in around 11:02 (10:02 cst) selling expensive puts before the low volume pump and I did not move my exit plan. That should have been an immediate alarm. My head wasn't there.

I can only dream of a $9 profit for today. The bar has been set lol! Back at it tomorrow! Shake off the loss, but not the lesson.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by lane121

What/when I traded:

3 SPY 545C contracts @ 10:25 (or 9:25 cst)

5 SPY 545P contracts @ 10:36 (or 9:36 cst)

Thought process and reason for entering trade:

First trade- Trend was still green, however volume was red. I thought with trend and an ATR 5-6 pts above the whole psych that it was a stronger support than the 3-4 pts we've had the last few days and that it was a good time to test calls when we got back to touch the ATR (it wasn't). Market was still reacting to the data. I did not see flow really buying or selling at this time either.

Second trade: Break and retest of 5450 whole psych w/ a 5456 ATR above. Sellers had stepped in on the 10:15 SPY candle (or 9:15 cst) and had eclipsed the volume for the previous SPY "data bar" and trend was neutral.

Exit plan:

First trade- Out at the close below 5450 on the 5 min

Second trade- Out at close above 5456 ATR on the 5 min

Where I sold:

First trade- I sold all 3 contracts for a loss when we closed below 5450 on SPX 5 min

Second trade- I sold all 5 contracts for a loss when we closed above 5456 ATR

Total loss for the day $485

Errors, general notes, and things to consider moving forward:

The first day back after a big selloff on Friday- it's always good to notate how the market reacts after big days (looking like an up day according to premarket, but things can change quickly).

First trade- The market was still reacting to the data when I entered (no big moves from data initially. Interestingly, we were ticking up as data approached and broke the 5456 ATR). 5469 area is where we experienced momentum loss however and we kept rejecting. I went against volume at the time and I didn't practice a "wait and see" approach (entered towards the end of a 15 minute SPY candle rather than the beginning of one).

Second trade- A slightly better one, but a lack of mental acuity coupled with a disaster of execution resulted in a bigger loss than the first trade. I took some drawdown on this trade with the chop around 5450. Therefore, when we got to a 10pt move the profit was minimal and I did not trim. I looked at my P&L for the first time in a long time in the midst of the chop/drawdown. BIG MISTAKE. DON'T LOOK AT THE P&L. IT WILL BE THE FIRST MISTAKE IN A SERIES OF MISTAKES. I was then waiting for the touch (or close enough to the 5427 ATR to sell). Trend now was red, though sellers continuously were slowing on the 15 min SPY candle. I saw a large order block come in around 11:02 (10:02 cst) selling expensive puts before the low volume pump and I did not move my exit plan. That should have been an immediate alarm. My head wasn't there.

I can only dream of a $9 profit for today. The bar has been set lol! Back at it tomorrow! Shake off the loss, but not the lesson.

Exactly. Trade levels not P&L.

Looks like you took the same trade I did.

That said, you still did better than me today lol.

It's rare I have a losing day, but this morning had the right mix of mixed signals and late rejects.

Off days happen, on to the next trade.

[Blazed]

Tomorrow and Thurs are the big days. Today could chop or could get a move leading into data.

SPX: 5500 key level is all I’m going to watch for today.

Other s/r: 5560 / 5503 / 5446 / 5402


Watching:

SPY: reject @ 551.6 (hr) 554 area (hp), bounce @ 545. Also have a bounce @ 536 if the market gets weak.

NVDA: bounced @ 100 as expected now I’ll wait for a retest.

[lane121]

Would this be one of those days, if you take anything, that you'd consider 1 day out SPX because of all the chop in the morning?