📈Is the correction over? What cards look attractive with an upside potential?📈

[Nomad]

Originally Posted by kipgen

Look at some highly valued players and then work your way back from there

Consider what they all have in common

Im gonna be that outlier that waits out the hype cycles. Yeah, I'll admit that 30 point game that also included 20 points in the last 5 minutes to beat the Knicks on their home court was a nice bump in exposure.

As much as I complain, I didn't invest in Trae, Bol Bol, THC, or even Romeo Langford, Robert Williams III, or Grant Williams (Celtics who were selling double Double A his first two years in the league). Many rivers to cross, days to stack. Ganbatte! Fight!

Oh and the 'in common' things. Sneaker lines. Fast food ads. For the select few, Huggies diapers?

[gomiamigo]

Look at some highly valued players and then work your way back from there

Consider what they all have in common

None of them are on the Pacers, that's for sure.

[drobfan8]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

None of them are on the Pacers, that's for sure.

None of them are on the 76ers, that's for sure.

[Nomad]

As little as a year ago, no top selling singles were written and performed by AI.

Glad I invested in The Answer early.

[drobfan8]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Not often, it was a combo of Luck + Good eBay saved searches + having connections through other collectors.

But ignore that and just focus on the UFC TC Super. I belong to UFC card forums on Facebook, and when a card shop in Australia posted that one of their customers hit it in a pack, I asked the shop owner if the seller is looking to sell, and if so, asked if he could connect me.

I got ahold of the guy and he wanted to hold on to it for a bit. 2 Months later he mentioned to me that he had a guy offer him $3k for it and wanted to see if I could do better. I immediately told him I'd pay him $6k if he shipped it to me that day. The guy was thrilled to make a whole lot on it, and I was pumped to turn an easy arbitrage situation in my favor.

That's the opportunity out there right now. It takes some expertise, some persistence, and a little luck... but those opportunities are still out there if you are looking.

Good work on this one.

The ausd is putrid vs the USD currently, so selling cards is the smart move for us Aussies, not buying.

Even if you did better on the card. $6k usd is $9k plus ausd which is a massive hit.

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by Nomad

The points bias should be so dead and gone in today's NBA.

Actually agree with this, Nomad. And the fact that teams are attaching picks to get off high-scoring small guards this summer, when just a few years ago they were using those same picks to acquire them…shows we aren’t the only two who believe this right now.

[Nomad]

I'll be honest, we agree on a lot.

Thankfully this bias not dead in the hobby. How much you think I paid today for my second gold '22-23 CR auto, only one in a Pacers uniform?


stuff of nightmares to most

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by drobfan8

Good work on this one.

The ausd is putrid vs the USD currently, so selling cards is the smart move for us Aussies, not buying.

Even if you did better on the card. $6k usd is $9k plus ausd which is a massive hit.

The guy probably spent $50 on packs to pull the card. He was ready to take a $3k deal and I gave him $6k, plus rounded up the 2.9% or whatever G+S fees from eBay, and paid his shipping.

I put the profit I made from this deal into completed the biggest deal of my life and an absolute grail.

The guy I sold it to has a card that'll probably be worth 2x a few years down the road.

Win. Win. Win.

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by Nomad

I'll be honest, we agree on a lot.

Thankfully this bias not dead in the hobby. How much you think I paid today for my second gold '22-23 CR auto, only one in a Pacers uniform?


stuff of nightmares to most

Nice card man! I don’t know—I don’t do cards for $, just for a fun distraction from life. If you can afford it and it makes you happy, the price was right.

[Nomad]

For me affording stuff is an issue. I look at everything purchased from an investment standpoint.

Here, if I have two it's much easier to get one graded to sell, and still have a card I consider grail for the PC or long term hold. That makes me happy. Especially because the televised spotlight will be on the Pacers next year and it's really sink-or-swim time for the (perceived) supporting cast.

$50 all-in feels like a steal. I mean you could rip thousands of dollars of that Crown Royale stuff and get a couple snow globes and a kaboom.

[drobfan8]

Originally Posted by tjforce

The guy probably spent $50 on packs to pull the card. He was ready to take a $3k deal and I gave him $6k, plus rounded up the 2.9% or whatever G+S fees from eBay, and paid his shipping.

I put the profit I made from this deal into completed the biggest deal of my life and an absolute grail.

The guy I sold it to has a card that'll probably be worth 2x a few years down the road.

Win. Win. Win.

Very very nice.

What's the grail? Have you shown it on here?

I'm not as tied to my collection as I used to be, I should probably flip stuff around rather than having stuff just sit

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by Nomad

For me affording stuff is an issue. I look at everything purchased from an investment standpoint.

Here, if I have two it's much easier to get one graded to sell, and still have a card I consider grail for the PC or long term hold. That makes me happy. Especially because the televised spotlight will be on the Pacers next year and it's really sink-or-swim time for the (perceived) supporting cast.

$50 all-in feels like a steal. I mean you could rip thousands of dollars of that Crown Royale stuff and get a couple snow globes and a kaboom.

Ah man maybe this isn’t popular for these forums but I don’t think cards are the best investment. You’d do better to throw money into an index fund or something.

Not sure the Pacers will get many nationally televised games next year with Hali out.

Also wouldn’t try to connect singles prices to box prices. The price of boxes make no sense relative to single prices because the sum of individual cards hardly touch 20% of the price of the box. Obviously not my place to tell you what to do, but I buy cards I like fully expecting them to lose value over time.

[Nomad]

I hear you. But respectfully, it's not a major investment. I mean $50 is a cheap dinner. While the next one of these at this price probably comes around never.

It's actually a very interesting time. As we have been saying the teams in the NBA are in flux and, until anyone proves otherwise, assume the Pacers are gonna build something great.

I thought it over and realized there is only one reason they let Myles walk. They think Isaiah Jackson is healthy, younger, faster, and ready to carry the mantle on a $7 million salary. No one has actually seen him play in a year.

I think there is a lot to glean from finding out whether the bet pays off. Keep you updated.

[RKH916]

Yeah, don't "invest" in cards unless you're willing to take a lot of risk and lose a lot of money. Most players today, even stars, will trend closer towards Larry Johnson than they will Michael Jordan over the longer term. SGA even with a chip, MVP and FMVP will likely wind up - outside of his absolute high end cards - closer to Penny Hardaway 20 years from now.

Better off DCA'ing into an index fund and forgetting about it.

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by Nomad

I hear you. But respectfully, it's not a major investment. I mean $50 is a cheap dinner. While the next one of these at this price probably comes around never.

It's actually a very interesting time. As we have been saying the teams in the NBA are in flux and, until anyone proves otherwise, assume the Pacers are gonna build something great.

I thought it over and realized there is only one reason they let Myles walk. They think Isaiah Jackson is healthy, younger, faster, and ready to carry the mantle on a $7 million salary. No one has actually seen him play in a year.

I think there is a lot to glean from finding out whether the bet pays off. Keep you updated.

Fair enough!

Yes, interested to see how IJ looks coming off the achilles. I just don’t think Pacers anticipated the Bucks blowing up their entire franchise to clear cap space that Indiana did not think was available on the open market. I don’t blame them for expecting the Bucks to act rationally in their own self-interest. But Pacers have had Turner on the trade block for years. I’m grateful for the role he played for that team for this year especially, but trust they have a plan B.

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by RKH916

Yeah, don't "invest" in cards unless you're willing to take a lot of risk and lose a lot of money. Most players today, even stars, will trend closer towards Larry Johnson than they will Michael Jordan over the longer term. SGA even with a chip, MVP and FMVP will likely wind up - outside of his absolute high end cards - closer to Penny Hardaway 20 years from now.

Better off DCA'ing into an index fund and forgetting about it.

Sound advice.

[Asian62150]

The only commonality between investments and cards is I don't spend money I can't afford to lose. So if a card goes up, great (thanks, Luka!). I can sell/trade it for something I'd rather have in my PC. If a card goes to nothing (thanks, Zion!) the loss stings but it isn't going to affect my overall lifestyle.

I would not advise anyone to see cards as an investment. Yes, you can possibly 10x whatever you put into cards and there are lots of success stories. But it's incredibly risky because you not only have to pick the right player, you have to pick the right card.

And not just that, sometimes it's difficult to get out of a card if that card is too expensive. It can be difficult to move cards over $1000 at card shows.

Cards are nothing like stocks. Stocks you can easily buy/sell in seconds. Who knows how long it'll take to move a card that is worth $10K even if you list it for $8500.

I don't mind ppl showing off their stuff on IG. However, I wish more ppl would share their losses and not just incredible gains. Not everything is a winner and nothing goes up forever.

Also, cards are a completely unregulated industry. There's so much rampant shilling, scheming, covering up, altered cards, fake patches, fake cards, poor grading and authentication standards, pump/dump, etc...

All that said, collecting/chasing cards is still fun for me. And it feels good to be able to make a good trade where you meet a fellow collector and everyone walks away happy.

[RKH916]

Yeah, that 1k-10k is a lot harder to move than the Instagram/Fanatics/Goldin scene gives the illusion of. Cards are nowhere near as liquid as they'd like you to believe - they can be difficult to move. I feel bad for folks accruing debt/interest to acquire cards on the premise of easy liquidity.

That's why I mentioned in an earlier post that the actual collector pool in the market is very low, the bulk is comprised of flippers and gamblers pushing prices upward.

[Nomad]

I feel like basically this is solvable though.

Once I get into the hobby with some capital, first thing I will do is start like a Cards Project that catalogues everything from rare 90s errors to the intricacies of Fanatics green cracked ice 20-21 flux vs. Target pulsar 20-21 flux. Both factory, yes, but one five times rarer in each color, including the desirable black and gold.

Once collectors start thinking in these terms, then you can start trading Nesmiths for Jamal Murrays and (trying to think of similar seconds who went to finals) or whatever. And finding real value, because there are now more than 10 people on earth that would like a key gold Crown Royale auto issue of that player. With a proper understanding of how hierarchy has shifted in the NBA, we can now trade the two, or if selling value equally.

This is where the market aspect of cards take hold. I made the mistake of buying cool 90s cards at way too high a price in Cebu early on during the pandemic. Everyone knew I was the only dude foolish enough to pay $80 for a Nesmith gold sticker Origins auto or a raw Kobe Skybox rookie or whatever. So they like associated me with novice collectors who weren't into Harden and Lamello. Never mind that their families were able to weather hard times as a result.

Once you have a rep as a mark, it's hard to outgrow it. But sometimes you just settle for a long term schooling. Don't ever call it payback. Leave it all out on the court. Look at Nesmith. He kicks chairs, just body blocks great offensive players right and left, catches fire in the moment with the right distributors (gained probably his first real nickname, Human Torch). But never speaks ill of anyone.

[NickyCards]

Someone bought the Topps Now Team USA KD red auto /10 on Fanatics Collect in May for $1,750, and already has a $2,250 offer at a $3k buy now. Seems low compared to the curry red.

[Nomad]

And I mean that's KD, who hasn't really accomplished much since the line step with Nets.

I mean a lot of shooters respect him.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

The only commonality between investments and cards is I don't spend money I can't afford to lose. So if a card goes up, great (thanks, Luka!). I can sell/trade it for something I'd rather have in my PC. If a card goes to nothing (thanks, Zion!) the loss stings but it isn't going to affect my overall lifestyle.

I would not advise anyone to see cards as an investment. Yes, you can possibly 10x whatever you put into cards and there are lots of success stories. But it's incredibly risky because you not only have to pick the right player, you have to pick the right card.

And not just that, sometimes it's difficult to get out of a card if that card is too expensive. It can be difficult to move cards over $1000 at card shows.

Cards are nothing like stocks. Stocks you can easily buy/sell in seconds. Who knows how long it'll take to move a card that is worth $10K even if you list it for $8500.

I don't mind ppl showing off their stuff on IG. However, I wish more ppl would share their losses and not just incredible gains. Not everything is a winner and nothing goes up forever.

Also, cards are a completely unregulated industry. There's so much rampant shilling, scheming, covering up, altered cards, fake patches, fake cards, poor grading and authentication standards, pump/dump, etc...

All that said, collecting/chasing cards is still fun for me. And it feels good to be able to make a good trade where you meet a fellow collector and everyone walks away happy.

Bingo

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Bingo

Grading should be double bolded.

Need a quarter end boost? Upcharge some biggies.

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

The only commonality between investments and cards is I don't spend money I can't afford to lose. So if a card goes up, great (thanks, Luka!). I can sell/trade it for something I'd rather have in my PC. If a card goes to nothing (thanks, Zion!) the loss stings but it isn't going to affect my overall lifestyle.

I would not advise anyone to see cards as an investment. Yes, you can possibly 10x whatever you put into cards and there are lots of success stories. But it's incredibly risky because you not only have to pick the right player, you have to pick the right card.

And not just that, sometimes it's difficult to get out of a card if that card is too expensive. It can be difficult to move cards over $1000 at card shows.

Cards are nothing like stocks. Stocks you can easily buy/sell in seconds. Who knows how long it'll take to move a card that is worth $10K even if you list it for $8500.

I don't mind ppl showing off their stuff on IG. However, I wish more ppl would share their losses and not just incredible gains. Not everything is a winner and nothing goes up forever.

Also, cards are a completely unregulated industry. There's so much rampant shilling, scheming, covering up, altered cards, fake patches, fake cards, poor grading and authentication standards, pump/dump, etc...

All that said, collecting/chasing cards is still fun for me. And it feels good to be able to make a good trade where you meet a fellow collector and everyone walks away happy.

This is a great post.

Just honing in on the value aspect. I think this is really worth noting, especially if you are dropping serious cash on singles. You can easily paint yourself in a corner. It’s not that many of the expensive cards aren’t desirable (hence the hefty price tag), it’s just that you need a buyer with plenty of available cash at that moment who wants that card if you want/need to unload it.

I generally stick with cards in the $200-$1000 range. I buy cards I enjoy, but I buy and sell frequently, move stuff around, and enjoy not being “stuck” with a card if I want to cash it in. I’ve also been forced to liquidate my collection on a couple of occasions for real-life expenses and I had zero issues moving them when I needed to.

I consider cards a somewhat sunk cost, but I’m also aware of what’s likely to hold long term value and what isn’t. At the end of the day, they are more like my fun little additional emergency fund than an investment I’m expecting to see returns on. I stack when I can and sell when I need to. I’ve had more than a few little life hiccups that were solved by a card or two. My wife has certainly came to accept the hobby a lot easier when she saw cards solve real-life problems.


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[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by tjforce

The guy probably spent $50 on packs to pull the card. He was ready to take a $3k deal and I gave him $6k, plus rounded up the 2.9% or whatever G+S fees from eBay, and paid his shipping.

I put the profit I made from this deal into completed the biggest deal of my life and an absolute grail.

The guy I sold it to has a card that'll probably be worth 2x a few years down the road.

Win. Win. Win.

I feel like SSSP (10 or less) cards of young guys it's probably where a profit can made because they are hard to price when they are hot - although they seem to be a terrible hold because of how risky they are.

I remember hearing a guy at the last Burbank show talking about how he bough a Endrick Gold Prizm auto for 1,200 and had already sold it for 3,000 within 24 hours. The original seller was probably happy with the sale since he pulled it, the guy was happy flipping it so fast and the guy holding was willing to take all the risk in case the card became a 5 figure one.