Patrick Mahomes Prices

[arod305]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

I have faith he's going right back to the AFC Championship next year as the major pieces will still be there, but to be honest, anything less than that and it will be a letdown.


Maybe unrealistic expectations on my part.

While I agree, the Wildcard/Divisional rounds in the AFC are going to be wild for years to come. The reality is there is a decent chance you are getting Allen, Burrow, or Herbert in the Divisional if you don't get them in the Wildcard.

If he misses two straight SB's and doesn't win a MVP next year. You will see a massive correction in his prices imo. That most likely means a guy like Burrow, Allen, or Herbert are making a SB appearance and not Pat.

Anyway you shake it, this year was a massive opportunity blown. As a Chiefs fan that is where I am still struggling. I think the Chiefs team will look a lot difference next year. 25 Free Agents and a good chance you don't have guys like Frank Clark or Tryann on the defense. It will be very very interesting to see how GM Brett Veach navigates things. His big cap hit kicks in next year, but I am sure it will move to guaranteed money and manipulated.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by arod305

If he misses two straight SB's and doesn't win a MVP next year. You will see a massive correction in his prices imo. That most likely means a guy like Burrow, Allen, or Herbert are making a SB appearance and not Pat.

arod305's indirect advice to everyone based on his recent posts: Abandon the ship! Sell Sell Sell! JK

EDIT: Are you looking to buy this offseason and flip it next season?

[arod305]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

arod305's indirect advice to everyone based on his recent posts: Abandon the ship! Sell Sell Sell! JK

EDIT: Are you looking to buy this offseason and flip it next season?

I'll be buying. 100% I'll be looking to add Patty. Will I look at 6 figure stuff? Meh, probably not because I am a little fearful of the AFC. However, I'll be looking to add nice Patties

My ideal football portfolio will look like this going into next season if I do things how I'd like to:

Brady 70%
Mahomes 15%
Allen, Herbert, Burrow 15%

Should have two Patty's showing up this week.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by arod305

While I agree, the Wildcard/Divisional rounds in the AFC are going to be wild for years to come. The reality is there is a decent chance you are getting Allen, Burrow, or Herbert in the Divisional if you don't get them in the Wildcard.

If he misses two straight SB's and doesn't win a MVP next year. You will see a massive correction in his prices imo. That most likely means a guy like Burrow, Allen, or Herbert are making a SB appearance and not Pat.

Anyway you shake it, this year was a massive opportunity blown. As a Chiefs fan that is where I am still struggling. I think the Chiefs team will look a lot difference next year. 25 Free Agents and a good chance you don't have guys like Frank Clark or Tryann on the defense. It will be very very interesting to see how GM Brett Veach navigates things. His big cap hit kicks in next year, but I am sure it will move to guaranteed money and manipulated.

Yeah, when you put it that way, the reality does set in. Sunday's loss was and still is a bitter pill to swallow.

But remember, TB had 10 years between superbowls. Patty still has the arm and the talent. It's not like he has any flaws physically, it's in his mind. I think he will really learn from this loss.

[Asian62150]

Every time you get to the Championship game/Super Bowl and don't win, that's a huge missed op, especially in football where it just takes one hit to change a player's career.

[Fenway55]

Originally Posted by gottagitdemjs

Caesars released odds for Super Bowl 57 today. The Chiefs are the favorites at 6.5-1 with Buffalo having the second best odds at 7-1. So Vegas still believes in Pat and Andy, and I trust Vegas over random sports card guy that lives to troll winners.

Long term Vegas futures odds are really just representative of how the general public feels about something. So by putting your faith in Vegas, you are essentially putting your faith in all the randos out there.

[Fenway55]

Originally Posted by mainelobster

Let's not forget passing stats looked a lot different in the NFL in the early 2000s. Tom Brady led the NFL with passing TDs in 2002 with 25! Wild how much the game has changed.

This is something that so many people ignorant of NFL history - even recent history - forget.

There are those who deride Brady as a "game manager" who "only" averaged 25 TD's per year before 2007. Back then, 25 was a very impressive number. As you mention, he led the League in 2002 (though with 28, not 25). The almighty gunslinger Brett Favre averaged 26 per year over the same time frame. Is Favre a game manager too??

[BostonNut]

Originally Posted by Fenway55

This is something that so many people ignorant of NFL history - even recent history - forget.

There are those who deride Brady as a "game manager" who "only" averaged 25 TD's per year before 2007. Back then, 25 was a very impressive number. As you mention, he led the League in 2002 (though with 28, not 25). The almighty gunslinger Brett Favre averaged 26 per year over the same time frame. Is Favre a game manager too??

Thanks Bill Polian.

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by Fenway55

This is something that so many people ignorant of NFL history - even recent history - forget.

There are those who deride Brady as a "game manager" who "only" averaged 25 TD's per year before 2007. Back then, 25 was a very impressive number. As you mention, he led the League in 2002 (though with 28, not 25). The almighty gunslinger Brett Favre averaged 26 per year over the same time frame. Is Favre a game manager too??

Not sure why you're even in this thread other than to be contrarian.

[TSonn]

A few of the Mahomes cards I follow pretty closely have gone UP since the loss.

[tmar214]

Originally Posted by gottagitdemjs

Caesars released odds for Super Bowl 57 today. The Chiefs are the favorites at 6.5-1 with Buffalo having the second best odds at 7-1. So Vegas still believes in Pat and Andy, and I trust Vegas over random sports card guy that lives to troll winners.

This shows how difficult it is to get to 3+ Super bowl wins especially in what rates to be the far tougher conference for years to come. Thats what is often times a little scary for someone like Mahomes when people have such high expectations in the hobby. Brady had a mix of high level play, longevity, and luck to win so many superbowls. Even if the Chiefs are rated as the best team in the NFL going in to each season the next 8-10 years mahomes still might only be expected to win 1 more super bowl over that span.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by TSonn

A few of the Mahomes cards I follow pretty closely have gone UP since the loss.

Rare ones or high pop ones?

[TSonn]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Rare ones or high pop ones?

Numbered, autos.

[daveyc1]

Sunday was a huge loss for Mahomes legacy. after beating Buffalo, this could have been as easy a path to #2 that he will see. every season he does not win puts him further off pace. He has 1 SB going into his age 27 season with a stacked conference to go through.

unless he changes his game, Mahomes will not age gracefully into his 40s. too much running around, depending on playmakers to get open. when the speed leaves and the arm strength decreases, you are left with decision making. currently that is suspect.

Mahomes playmakers will now have another year of wear on them. kelce saw a marked decline this season and is heading into his age 33 year.

Hill also saw some regression this season. although i would not put that one up to age. his y/c were the lowest since his rookie season. He will be heading into his age 28 season. as a WR dependant on raw speed as opposed to running precise routes and great hands, when the speed leaves, so will the big plays.

We are rapidly approaching the giant bottleneck of Mahomes contract extension. this is the biggest reason Mahomes needed to win this season. his cap hit this year was <8MM. next season, it will be >35MM after that it will be between 44 and 60MM per season. that is crippling. yes, the cap will be higher, yes they can restructure, but with every restructure you are just kicking the can down the road and making it progressively harder for each successive season.

Mahomes will need to win for sure next season, after that, there will not be enough MM to go around to field the playmakers he needs and a competitive defense. It will be very very difficult for Mahomes to be a multiple SB champion with that type of salary. they will need to hit home runs every single season in the draft to have a chance.

[pejc300]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

arod305's indirect advice to everyone based on his recent posts: Abandon the ship! Sell Sell Sell! JK

EDIT: Are you looking to buy this offseason and flip it next season?

Are you going to pull the gold vinyl for Goldin or is there a hidden reserve on it?

[Onepocketj]

Man, a lot of these posts sound strangely similar to the ones at the beginning of the season before they won 11 out of 12 games.

These trolls disappeared when the winning started and they'll disappear next year too.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

Man, a lot of these posts sound strangely similar to the ones at the beginning of the season before they won 11 out of 12 games.

These trolls disappeared when the winning started and they'll disappear next year too.

Agree. He will be right back in the mix next year.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by pejc300

Are you going to pull the gold vinyl for Goldin or is there a hidden reserve on it?

No plans to pull it nor there is a hidden reserve on it. As most of you know, I sold 50% stake in the Gold Vinyl a few months ago to someone at 510K valuation. The other person wanted to sell now and I am also fine with it. This is the only card where I have a partnership with someone else and I prefer to terminate the partnership when both parties are in agreement. Once I move this card, I will have 100% ownership and control on all of my remaining cards, which is what I prefer. My cost basis on the gold vinyl is ~18K and I already cashed out ~260K on it by selling 50% stake and will receive an additional 50% of the current sale price. Looking back I should have sold it to Alt when they offered me 685K cash back in July but I have no regrets. It is tough to time the market peak and lows

[pejc300]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

No plans to pull it nor there is a hidden reserve on it. As most of you know, I sold 50% stake in the Gold Vinyl a few months ago to someone at 510K valuation. The other person wanted to sell now and I am also fine with it. This is the only card where I have a partnership with someone else and I prefer to terminate the partnership when both parties are in agreement. Once I move this card, I will have 100% ownership and control on all of my remaining cards, which is what I prefer. My cost basis on the gold vinyl is ~18K and I already cashed out ~260K on it by selling 50% stake and will receive an additional 50% of the current sale price. Looking back I should have sold it to Alt when they offered me 685K cash back in July but I have no regrets. It is tough to time the market peak and lows

Outstanding!!

[TSonn]

I'm still in for Patty to get >= 3 Superbowls. 4 would put him in conversation with Brady and Montana as the GOATs.

[gbit412]

Originally Posted by TSonn

I'm still in for Patty to get >= 3 Superbowls. 4 would put him in conversation with Brady and Montana as the GOATs.

I think 3 would be a fantastic outcome given the landscape of the NFL for the foreseeable future


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Hellcat]

Originally Posted by TSonn

I'm still in for Patty to get >= 3 Superbowls. 4 would put him in conversation with Brady and Montana as the GOATs.

Come on man he has to get to 8 to enter the conversation it will never happen let it go.

[daveyc1]

Originally Posted by TSonn

I'm still in for Patty to get >= 3 Superbowls. 4 would put him in conversation with Brady and Montana as the GOATs.

not even close. Mahomes has played 4 seasons. 4. he is not in any goat conversation yet.

get to 4 and then think about Montana comparisons.

get to 7, then make the brady comparisons

[Rabs]

Dude goes to 4 straight AFC Championship games and everyone calls him a failure.

The start to his career is arguably better than any QB ever. But it seems it isn't good enough for most people. Pretty sad.

[rman112]

Originally Posted by Rabs

Dude goes to 4 straight AFC Championship games and everyone calls him a failure.

The start to his career is arguably better than any QB ever. But it seems it isn't good enough for most people. Pretty sad.

I think a lot of it is how bad he played. If it was a shootout like in Buffalo and they lost 38-34 and the D couldn't stop Burrow, it'd probably be a lot more tame.