Let’s see one of your INVESTMENT Wax Boxes - I’ll start....

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

so long as there exist people that people that (1) have money and (2) have the ability to do 4th grade math its basically impossible for sealed wax to ever not be over valued related to its contents

The natural extension of this is that almost every box of sealed wax out there right now is likely overprices relative to its contents, simply based on the fact if it wasnt people would buy them and open them (discounting for small profits not worht the time/effort for some people).

How people react/repsond when they realize this is to be determined i guess, but I would bet on sealed wax doing poorly in near future

I don't think I speak for myself when I say new sealed wax is still too high and hasn't come close to the value of it's contents. Look at the black friday deals from this seller: with the exception of a few things, they were underwhelming.

I'm not saying this to disagree with you. I think new wax should be dropping like a rock, but for reasons too long to discuss here, they haven't.

[mattglet]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

But isn’t this exactly what buyers of Singles do? I don’t hear anyone saying that’s unsustainable

To some extent, yes. But I don't think I'm going out on a limb saying that there's a MUCH higher percentage of singles that are *collected* vs the percentage of wax.

Especially if we're talking about the modern/ultra-modern age of wax, which seems to be almost exclusively about the gambling aspect rather than a true collectible.

[mattglet]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

There are only really 2 reasons to open a box of sports cards (1) gamble (2) its profitable. Yes there are people with FU money that just like the hobby but lets out them in group (1).

In time, a large % of the pool of group (1) goes broke leaving only people in group (2) looking to rip wax; as we have already established they won't because every single existing sealed box will be - EV they wont buy any sealed wax...

Therefore, the only people buying sealed wax will be peopel buying it to keep sealed as an invtesmtnt to sell to other people who will buy to keep it sealed to sell to other people who will buy to keep it sealed...

This is not a sustanable model and somehting will change.

"Investment" wax *should*, IMO, always continue to go down unless you happen to win the lottery as it pertains to a reasonable pool of generational talent rookies being present in the product (1983 Topps, 2011 Topps Update, 2018 Topps Update, etc. just to give a few baseball examples).

My reasoning is that over time you are only going to have the number of "hit" cards available reduce as more of the product is opened, and you're basically left with base RCs available. The superfractors and other low numbered cards are much more publicly known these days when they are hit so anyone with half a brain can do some napkin math to determine what your ROI might be when purchasing a box.

And the ROI problem is only exacerbated by the fact that wax prices don't drop at the same rate as the number of "hits available" drop, which will continue to befuddle me.

So yeah, sealed wax is a game of hot potato in my eyes.

[jrubbo23]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

[/B]



I don't think I speak for myself when I say new sealed wax is still too high and hasn't come close to the value of it's contents. Look at the black friday deals from this seller: with the exception of a few things, they were underwhelming.

I'm not saying this to disagree with you. I think new wax should be dropping like a rock, but for reasons too long to discuss here, they haven't.

Wax during and post pandemic is too high. I started buying wax in 2000 and out of sheer coincidence stopped in 2019. 2019 TC at $95 a box. I stopped because I saw triple digits on the horizon for non high-end and I said enough. No idea that a pandemic would blow prices out of the water. I see what is happening now and I don't have any regrets. I am happy with what I have amassed in over 20 years. I have nearly 500 boxes that I bought at then current prices. I am not in any financial bind from them and never will be going forward. And I am not worried about any crash affecting my boxes. When my cost basis for TC basketball boxes is $50 apiece and half a case of 2009 BDDP at $75 apiece, your ROI (if you care about that) is still fine.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by mattglet

“Investment" wax *should*, IMO, always continue to go down ….

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[mattglet]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by jrubbo23

Wax during and post pandemic is too high. I started buying wax in 2000 and out of sheer coincidence stopped in 2019. 2019 TC at $95 a box. I stopped because I saw triple digits on the horizon for non high-end and I said enough. No idea that a pandemic would blow prices out of the water. I see what is happening now and I don't have any regrets. I am happy with what I have amassed in over 20 years. I have nearly 500 boxes that I bought at then current prices. I am not in any financial bind from them and never will be going forward. And I am not worried about any crash affecting my boxes. When my cost basis for TC basketball boxes is $50 apiece and half a case of 2009 BDDP at $75 apiece, your ROI (if you care about that) is still fine.

agree.

It's nice to look at my 2017 prizm FOTL FB boxes and realize I paid $120 a pop for them.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

But isn’t this exactly what buyers of Singles do? I don’t hear anyone saying that’s unsustainable

If I spend $100 on a single, I now own a a card presumably worth $100 (fees etc non withstanding). If I spend $100 on a box I now own cards worth, what $30- $80 at best?

I’m sure lots of people would argue that the entire market currently shows that singles prices were not in fact sustainable. The vast majority of cards will never see their precious peaks again. I’m not gonna get into how singles or even wax for that matter will perform in the future but I do think that you will see. A shift to where wax more closely resembles the EV of its contents.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

If I spend $100 on a single, I now own a a card presumably worth $100 (fees etc non withstanding). If I spend $100 on a box I now own cards worth, what $30- $80 at best?

No …. It’s worth $100. You are opening the box in your comparison — but I’m not ripping up the card - you see?
The card is a single entity- it’s physical state not changing
The box is also a single entity- when you don’t change it’s physical state

[johnlocke36]

2022 topps chrome is a good idea if people starting to do more math with regards to ripping. I’ve seen multiple posts where people now calc exact EV of judge/goldy (super easy to do to the exact dollar) subtract from case price and say do I want to rip.

If it was profitable to now do this, then topps chrome boxes would sell until you reach the equilibrium point at which rip value = box costs.

There are very few people that are going to open topps chrome outside of this reason, except for the previous mentioned reasons for opening wax. Eventually this approach will carry over to other products as well And you’ll see wax prices = EV with a small premium for gambling

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

No …. It’s worth $100. You are opening the box in your comparison — but I’m not ripping up the card - you see?
The card is a single entity- it’s physical state not changing
The box is also a single entity- when you don’t change it’s physical state

The EV of a box can be more or less calculated at any time. The fact that the box may sell for 5x the value or it’s EV doesn’t mean it worth that, It largely o it means that people are stupid


As less stupid Peope remain the the Hobby the multiplier by which the box can be sold over it’s expected value will go down

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

The EV of a box can be more or less calculated at any time. The fact that the box may sell for 5x the value or it’s EV doesn’t mean it worth that, It largely o it means that people are stupid

I understand now ….. it’s not that you don’t ‘get it’ …. it’s that a large number of savvy collectors and investors are actually stupid

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

I understand now ….. it’s not that you don’t ‘get it’ …. it’s that a large number of savvy collectors and investors are actually stupid

Cna you Name one box of cards you would buy right now to open and not lose money on? I’m sure some exist but largely if you are selling sealed wax right now to someone looking to open it thay have to do so expecting to take a loss

[jmsodpc]

There is a premium attached to being the
First one to open and search a box. People would just
Buy complete sets if all they wanted was the cards.

The premium is paid to possibly get a hit card or mint card or even the experience of the pack pulled cards.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

Cna you Name one box of cards you would buy right now to open and not lose money on? I’m sure some exist but largely if you are selling sealed wax right now to someone looking to open it thay have to do so expecting to take a loss

Can you name one single player right now that hasn't dropped in value?

There's always a few outliers, but right now, everything across the board is down.


What you fail to mention is buy in cost: I have several 2000 Football boxes that I paid relatively cheap prices for that the "big three" will pay a significant bounty.



Yes; ultra modern unopened could be a losing proposition, but again, it depends on buy in cost.

[MSU Bulldogs]

Can we get back to posting pictures of unopened wax, please.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

Can you name one single player right now that hasn't dropped in value?

There's always a few outliers, but right now, everything across the board is down.


What you fail to mention is buy in cost: I have several 2000 Football boxes that I paid relatively cheap prices for that the "big three" will pay a significant bounty.



Yes; ultra modern unopened could be a losing proposition, but again, it depends on buy in cost.

The same thing can easily be said about older modern/vintage/etc.

It all comes down to the buy-in cost.

Liquidity and timeframe are also some important factors (but not limited to those).

I've made significant gains on (and will continue to) "ultra modern" wax that "older modern" and "vintage" wax wouldn't realize in the same timeframe (as far as percentage change).

[jmsodpc]

Originally Posted by MSU Bulldogs

Can we get back to posting pictures of unopened wax, please.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

What you fail to mention is buy in cost: I have several 2000 Football boxes that I paid relatively cheap prices for that the "big three" will pay a significant bounty.



Yes; ultra modern unopened could be a losing proposition, but again, it depends on buy in cost.

To be clear and don’t mean to say/imply that people that bought early and held and/or flipped at peak aren’t very smart. They clearly made good decisions and made huge profits. My only point was that I see wax prices eventually congregating with singles prices. It is possible for that to occur and sealed wax to continue to rise. And of course I cna easily be horribly wrong and off base

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

The same thing can easily be said about older modern/vintage/etc.

It all comes down to the buy-in cost.

Liquidity and timeframe are also some important factors (but not limited to those).

I've made significant gains on (and will continue to) "ultra modern" wax that "older modern" and "vintage" wax wouldn't realize in the same timeframe (as far as percentage change).

YUP.

Logofractor is a great example of ultra modern wax that has risen since release. It looks like cosmic chrome might do well too.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by jmsodpc

Beauty!

[ewokpelts]

My two cents:

My sons were given a 19 heritage high number box as an Xmas gift in 2020. We opened it, even though it was worth quite a bit sealed(eBay comps were $300 at the time).


Second pack in the box we pulled a trout auto. BUT, no tatis, vlad, or anything else of value. The trout comps anywhere from $500-$800

I think I made the right call. But I also know I won’t be as lucky next time.

[ewokpelts]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

[/B]




YUP.

Logofractor is a great example of ultra modern wax that has risen since release. It looks like cosmic chrome might do well too.

That was a $50 buy in with a strong rookie class.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

[/B]




YUP.

Logofractor is a great example of ultra modern wax that has risen since release. It looks like cosmic chrome might do well too.

Exactly!

One thing to note, which I know you're already aware of, is that older modern/vintage wax supply (for a given product) is a lot lower than ultra modern wax supply since more of the former was ripped/destroyed over the years and more of the latter has been hoarded.

With that said, unless the supply for older modern/vintage wax is truly scarce, the value for such wax will always remain "attainable" enough. Examples of truly scarce vintage wax are basically what jmsodpc shows us daily.

Having a decent supply of available wax for ultra modern products can also be advantageous when sales are uptrending because you're constantly setting newer (and higher) comps (lack of or outdated comps can make older modern wax sales a little more difficult to move), not to mention, a newer product is often more liquid too.

Basically, there's pros and cons for both. But you're a true sealed wax collector so I understand why you prioritize older modern wax over ultra modern wax. You don't particularly care about short-term/mid-term valuation and you're not flipping sealed wax to build funds for other sealed wax. However, you could easily take advantage of such opportunities and obtain desired wax (vintage, older modern, ultra modern, etc) at a heavily reduced (sometimes "free") price if you wanted.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

[/B]




YUP.

Logofractor is a great example of ultra modern wax that has risen since release. It looks like cosmic chrome might do well too.

Not to beat a dead horse but generally curious. With regards to cosmic Chrome if I buy it and rip it I’ll lose money correct. If so then only options for buyers are (1) but and hold sealed and hope it goes up (2) buy and rip and lose money.

Logo fractor at least seems like a fun rip of you are win for $50 a box