✹The PERENNIAL Shohei Ohtani Thread✹

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Because 50/50 wasn’t a generally priced in expectation. If he hits 80 HRs this year, obviously his cards are going up because he’s beat expectations.

I think people are pricing in 500 HRs, a couple more MVPs, and a couple more WS rings. Anything more is great. And he has so many tools that he is very capable of doing more.

Yeah, no one (not even the most hardcore Ohtani fans) thought he could really go 50/50 last season before the season started...especially coming off TJS surgery. I mean his career high for SB's was 26 prior to last season, and he also never hit 50 HR in a season too.

He wasn't even really a threat for 50 SBs till middle of the season. On July 1st, 2024, he had 16 SBs. May need to give an assist to Mookie for helping 50/50 happen. When Betts went down with his injury, Ohtani moved up to leadoff, and that's when he really started racking up the SBs.

[jacksonjj]

How are people actually continuing a discussion as to whether future speculation is baked into current pricing?

That is basic economics 101. You don't buy it. LOL you must not buy anything then.

[jacksonjj]

King of Baseball.

[hammertime]

Sorry to interrupt business school, but here are a couple recent Sho pickups.

[Trueblue]

Super nice clear! Feel like the '24 design matches really well with that parallel.

I agree with the comments about focusing more on collecting rather than timing the pricing or what is baked in. You will tend to miss out on some great deals if you don't focus on buying things you love in your comfort zone rather than trying to "buy the dip" or "time the market." A lot of people were complaining about prices in Q4 due to no decreases, and look where we're at now - lot of remorse.

If you apply the same concepts and buy within your comfort zone, it will average out over time.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Because 50/50 wasn’t a generally priced in expectation. If he hits 80 HRs this year, obviously his cards are going up because he’s beat expectations.

I think people are pricing in 500 HRs, a couple more MVPs, and a couple more WS rings. Anything more is great. And he has so many tools that he is very capable of doing more.

I think you are wrong about what future expectations are priced into Ohtani card prices. And I can prove it if you go back through the thread. After Ohtani was injured 8n 2023 his cards significantly dropped. When he signed with the Dodgers they got a slight boost and then leveled off. When the Ippei scandal broke his cards took another dive. After it was clear Ohtani had no involvement (but was playing at an MVP pace) many of his cards were down 50%. At that time my expectation was he would still be a HOF eventually pitch again and still be the best player in the game. With all of that baked in prices were extremely low and I was the most vocal on the board that his prices did not make any sense. RC supply was not going up and demand should always be growing.

After 50/50 prices jumped. But after winning the WS prices didn't really move and have been very steady throughout the off season.

I think his current prices are the new floor unless he gets hurt and is out for the season. There is plenty of room for his cards to go up. Returning to be a dominant pitcher, winning MVP and another WS will boost his prices and separate him from all his contemporaries. The new argument will be Ohtani vs. Bonds as the best modern player. Only it won't matter because Ohtani will have way more demand due to his global appeal.

The guy is in his prime, on the best team and already off to a hot start. High-end Ohtani cards are as good as gold. So are old style autos through 2020/21. Low to mid end RC will still go up as demand is only going to increase over time.

[Bcr]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I think you are wrong about what future expectations are priced into Ohtani card prices. And I can prove it if you go back through the thread. After Ohtani was injured 8n 2023 his cards significantly dropped. When he signed with the Dodgers they got a slight boost and then leveled off. When the Ippei scandal broke his cards took another dive. After it was clear Ohtani had no involvement (but was playing at an MVP pace) many of his cards were down 50%. At that time my expectation was he would still be a HOF eventually pitch again and still be the best player in the game. With all of that baked in prices were extremely low and I was the most vocal on the board that his prices did not make any sense. RC supply was not going up and demand should always be growing.

After 50/50 prices jumped. But after winning the WS prices didn't really move and have been very steady throughout the off season.

I think his current prices are the new floor unless he gets hurt and is out for the season. There is plenty of room for his cards to go up. Returning to be a dominant pitcher, winning MVP and another WS will boost his prices and separate him from all his contemporaries. The new argument will be Ohtani vs. Bonds as the best modern player. Only it won't matter because Ohtani will have way more demand due to his global appeal.

The guy is in his prime, on the best team and already off to a hot start. High-end Ohtani cards are as good as gold. So are old style autos through 2020/21. Low to mid end RC will still go up as demand is only going to increase over time.

What are you using to monitor pricing because I don't think your assessment is correct. His card prices didn't really drop from the gambling issue (I was hoping they would) and his cards actually dropped a bit in the offseason after he already won the MVP and WS indicating that the prices were already baked in.

Just like in any market it is a lot harder to move up and much easier to go down. Anything short of an MVP and/or WS will likely cause prices to decrease barring a crazy milestone. This is just my opinion on the general prices for him. The high end and actual rare cards are more safe regardless.

[dunquixote1]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I think you are wrong about what future expectations are priced into Ohtani card prices. And I can prove it if you go back through the thread. After Ohtani was injured 8n 2023 his cards significantly dropped. When he signed with the Dodgers they got a slight boost and then leveled off. When the Ippei scandal broke his cards took another dive. After it was clear Ohtani had no involvement (but was playing at an MVP pace) many of his cards were down 50%. At that time my expectation was he would still be a HOF eventually pitch again and still be the best player in the game. With all of that baked in prices were extremely low and I was the most vocal on the board that his prices did not make any sense. RC supply was not going up and demand should always be growing.

After 50/50 prices jumped. But after winning the WS prices didn't really move and have been very steady throughout the off season.

I think his current prices are the new floor unless he gets hurt and is out for the season. There is plenty of room for his cards to go up. Returning to be a dominant pitcher, winning MVP and another WS will boost his prices and separate him from all his contemporaries. The new argument will be Ohtani vs. Bonds as the best modern player. Only it won't matter because Ohtani will have way more demand due to his global appeal.

The guy is in his prime, on the best team and already off to a hot start. High-end Ohtani cards are as good as gold. So are old style autos through 2020/21. Low to mid end RC will still go up as demand is only going to increase over time.

Don't forget this is a hobby. I would not call any card prices of any player on the planet at it's "floor." In fact, I wouldn't even do that for any commodity.

And maybe you haven't been paying attention to larger economic factors that could blow up the economy in a few quarters?

Feel free to invest in cards. Many Ohtani cards are potentially good investments. But the blanket statement of Ohtani cards being at their "floor" is going to leave you financially wrecked if you're doing this for investment purposes. The floor level for a regular Dodger Ohtani autos is not $2k like it is right now either. I'll die on that hill.

[ThoseBackPages]

CLEAR!!!!!!!!!!

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by dunquixote1

Don't forget this is a hobby. I would not call any card prices of any player on the planet at it's "floor." In fact, I wouldn't even do that for any commodity.

And maybe you haven't been paying attention to larger economic factors that could blow up the economy in a few quarters?

Feel free to invest in cards. Many Ohtani cards are potentially good investments. But the blanket statement of Ohtani cards being at their "floor" is going to leave you financially wrecked if you're doing this for investment purposes. The floor level for a regular Dodger Ohtani autos is not $2k like it is right now either. I'll die on that hill.

I don't invest in cards. I really only collect Ohtani at this point. And I am mainly a low and medium end collector. If I were an investor I would only buy high end RC autos. I have been buying since 2021 and just holding.

I don't have a crystal ball...but in the long run I think current prices are the new baseline for RC cards only. I don't follow anything else.

[punctilious]

Originally Posted by hammertime

Sorry to interrupt business school, but here are a couple recent Sho pickups.

Business school, I thought this was the frat house?!

Love that clear and it looks soooooo clean. Well done.

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by punctilious

Business school, I thought this was the frat house?!

Love that clear and it looks soooooo clean. Well done.

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[Trueblue]

Was struggling with which one is the jersey # so I bought the other one too.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Was struggling with which one is the jersey # so I bought the other one too.

Nice addition (assume you just added the #17)!

If it ever comes time to reduce to 1 copy, definitely keep #16.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Nice addition (assume you just added the #17)!

If it ever comes time to reduce to 1 copy, definitely keep #16.

Would have to agree here but it's fun owning both. I've noticed a strange trend of Topps keeping the jersey # and issuing it for damage replacement - it's happened to me a few times now.

I also regret selling some of my #11 serial cards since that was his number in Japan. Weird PC twist I like to apply sometimes, haha.

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Was struggling with which one is the jersey # so I bought the other one too.

Beastly.




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[ThoseBackPages]

WOW!!

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Would have to agree here but it's fun owning both. I've noticed a strange trend of Topps keeping the jersey # and issuing it for damage replacement - it's happened to me a few times now.

I also regret selling some of my #11 serial cards since that was his number in Japan. Weird PC twist I like to apply sometimes, haha.

Haha yeah, I can imagine. Interesting to learn about the redemption matter too, although quite disappointing as well (that they occasionally hold such cards back).

You know one’s PC is sweet when they have such regrets. Don’t worry about #11, you don’t need to own them all :P

[al3xmac10]

oooooh Maeda vs Ohtani incoming...?

[Trueblue]

SB #1

[hammertime]

Still putting that hand down...

[shaqobe]

Current pace: 64HR 32SB

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by hammertime

Still putting that hand down...

saw that and it looked a little awkward.


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[ThoseBackPages]

not sure ho wone would go about sliding differently

its reflex!

[Cardsandcoffee]

Some really strong numbers on recent 2018 Topps Chrome Autos…
I tried winning the recent Goldin 2018 TCA gold PSA 9, that ended at $23.2k. Got too rich for my blood. Hopefully one of you fine gentlemen won.
In addition, saw that his TCA purple PSA 9 sold for $10.2k. That was crazy, so I had to verify with PSA that it was paid for. And it was. Even fine 9’s have reached five digit territory. What a time to live in.