Patrick Mahomes Prices

[TSonn]

Just read that Cincy has only led for 15 minutes in each of the 3 games they won vs the Chiefs. Made me go back through the last 3 meetings to see where KC went wrong (and where Cincy went right).

2021 Week 17 @ CIN:

• KC up 11 at half. (KC biggest lead: 14)
• Chase has his best game as a pro. 266 yards / 3 TDs.
• CIN takes the lead 31-28 at the beginning of the 4th. KC drives down and gets a FG to tie. CIN gets the ball with 6 minutes to go and KC defense can't get off the field. Lose to CIN by a FG.

2021 AFCC @ KC:

• KC up 11 at half. (KC biggest lead: 18)
• KC just dominating CIN the first half. Couldn't stop the KC offense.
• KC runs a play at the 2 yard line with 5 seconds left in the half, Mahomes throws to Tyreke who gets tackled in bounds and time runs out. No points.
• Mahomes plays his worst half of football of his career. CIN comes all the way back to be up 24-21. Mahomes leads a 6 minute drive to send game to OT with a FG. Had many chances at a TD in regulation during last drive.
• KC gets ball in OT, Mahomes still looks bad. Almost threw INT on 2nd down. 3rd and long deep pass gets tipped into an INT. CIN only needs 20 yards for FG.

2022 Week 13 @ CIN:

• CIN up 4 at half. (CIN biggest lead: 11)
• CIN looking dominant in first half.
• CIN goes for it on 4th down at the KC 4 and don't get it right before half.
• KC comes back in the 3rd and takes the lead twice: 17 - 14 and 24 - 17.
• KC 2nd half errors: Kelce fumble on a would-be 30 yard play, Butker missed FG to tie.
• After missed Butker FG, CIN gets the ball and never gives it back - no more chances for KC/Mahomes. Burrow and Chase make ridiculous plays on 3rd and 4th downs.

Aside from the Mahomes 2nd half nightmare in the AFCC, the games have been lost by a combination of dumb KC errors (turnovers, missed FGs, not taking points, not doubling Chase) and CIN's ability to drive the clock down when they have a lead. My guess is KC will be hyperfocused on fundamentals this week (especially with Mahomes hobbled) so hopefully we see fewer KC errors - the main question will be can they get Burrow, Chase, Mixon, Higgins, Perine, Hurst off the field when it counts.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by TSonn

Just read that Cincy has only led for 15 minutes in each of the 3 games they won vs the Chiefs. Made me go back through the last 3 meetings to see where KC went wrong (and where Cincy went right).

2021 Week 17 @ CIN:

• KC up 11 at half. (KC biggest lead: 14)
• Chase has his best game as a pro. 266 yards / 3 TDs.
• CIN takes the 31-28 at the beginning of the 4th. KC drives down and gets a FG to tie. CIN gets the ball with 6 minutes to go and KC defense can't get off the field. Lose to CIN by a FG.

2021 AFCC @ KC:

• KC up 11 at half. (KC biggest lead: 18)
• KC just dominating CIN the first half. Couldn't stop the KC offense.
• KC runs a play at the 2 yard line with 5 seconds left in the half, Mahomes throws to Tyreke who gets tackled in bounds and time runs out. No points.
• Mahomes plays his worst half of football of his career. CIN comes all the way back to be up 24-21. Mahomes leads a 6 minute drive to send game to OT with a FG. Had many chances at a TD in regulation during last drive.
• KC gets ball in OT, Mahomes still looks bad. Almost threw INT on 2nd down. 3rd and long deep pass gets tipped into an INT. CIN only needs 20 yards for FG.

2022 Week 13 @ CIN:

• CIN up 4 at half. (CIN biggest lead: 11)
• CIN looking dominant in first half.
• CIN goes for it on 4th down at the KC 4 and don't get it right before half.
• KC comes back in the 3rd and takes the lead twice: 17 -14 and 24 -17.
• KC 2nd half errors: Kelce fumble on a would-be 30 yard play, Butker missed FG to tie.
• After missed Butker FG, CIN gets the ball and never gives it back - no more chances for KC/Mahomes. Burrow and Chase make ridiculous plays on 3rd and 4th downs.

Aside from the Mahomes 2nd half nightmare in the AFCC, the games have been lost by a combination of dumb KC errors (turnovers, missed FGs, not taking points, not doubling Chase) and CIN's ability to drive the clock down when they have a lead. My guess is KC will be hyperfocused on fundamentals this week (especially with Mahomes hobbled) so hopefully we see fewer KC errors - the main question will be can they get Burrow, Chase, Mixon, Higgins, Perine, Hurst off the field when it counts.

I wanted to say this.

The Bengals have done such a great job of sustaining drives when it matters and controlling the clock.

The Chiefs moved the ball well in the last matchup, but like you said, mistakes left points on the field and the defense couldn't get them the ball back.

Spags has got to figure out how to control the time of possession, even if it means playing some risky coverages, IMO.

[imbluestreak23]

3 days away! Who loves em some PATTY CAKES!

[TheFrenzy]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

Who loves em some PATTY CAKES!

People with blue square avatars.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by TheFrenzy

People with blue square avatars.

Hell yeah! I'm BLUE!

[HBMC]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I wanted to say this.

The Bengals have done such a great job of sustaining drives when it matters and controlling the clock.

The Chiefs moved the ball well in the last matchup, but like you said, mistakes left points on the field and the defense couldn't get them the ball back.

Spags has got to figure out how to control the time of possession, even if it means playing some risky coverages, IMO.

Gross rushing totals of the Chiefs in the three games TSonn mentioned:

72 carries, 432 yards, 4 TD's

That's good for 6 yards per carry. If the Chiefs get creative enough in the running game, they can force Cincy's ends to crash down or their LB's to stay honest. Mahomes with a credible running game was damned near unstoppable in 2018.

Having Joe Thuney back will help a lot. If Orlando Brown decides to show up, that would be even better.

[Rabs]

Hardman playing?

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Rabs

Hardman playing?

Seems like he's still questionable.

Would love to see it. Not to be a huge part of the gameplan, but to take 2-3 touches away from Skyy Moore.

We've still never seen Hardman and Toney together. Imagine an offensive set with Kelce, McKinnon, Toney, Hardman, and Juju/MVS. That's 5 guys that can run routes and catch the ball, 3 guys who are legit running play threats, and 2 guys that are quick screen threats. Would force the defense to cover the entire field sideline to sideline.

[chasacar86]

It would be...incredibly cool if the bengals dbs stopped manufacturing free bulletin board material and just played ball.

[KhalDrogo]

156k for the PSA 10 NT. No faith I guess.

[pejc300]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

156k for the PSA 10 NT. No faith I guess.

Goldin? Wow. And to think I almost ponied up 200k for a 3 color BGS 9 after they beat the niners in the SB. Very very lucky the guy wanted more

[pejc300]

TSonn, great breakdown. I remember all three of those games exactly as you mentioned them. It was painful to read that. I’m just hoping somehow. Someway burrow lays a huge egg this game like his first game of the year against Pittsburgh.

[jplarson]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

Hell yeah! I'm BLUE!

Da ba dee da ba di?

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by pejc300

Goldin? Wow. And to think I almost ponied up 200k for a 3 color BGS 9 after they beat the niners in the SB. Very very lucky the guy wanted more

Why would you have ponied up $200k for a BGS 9 after the SB when PSA 10's were going for $50-60K and BGS 9.5's were going for $30k? I think you're a year off.

[TSonn]

Really interesting breakdown of what CIN did to the KC offense the last couple times they played:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8f6H...QBConfidential

Makes me think if CIN comes out with the same game plan (why wouldn't they?) Pacheco and McKinnon will be the guys on Sunday. There's 5 yards to be had on every play as long as Kelce and WRs are running routes past 10 yards.

[kltomek]

Originally Posted by jg8422

I reached out to the seller and he said the buyer didn't pay. Not sure I believe that b/c it was super low. Seller has terrible feedback accusing him of canceling sale when his auction prices are too low for his liking.

There is a BIN now for an XRC PSA 10 for $4900 I believe with best offer option. Clearly the card has fallen big time. Pop report is now over 200 which doesn't help either.

Not sure if it has been covered in this thread, guessing it has though, but any idea on the print run of the xrc? I personally love the card and I am hoping to get into one. To me and my budget, that is a grail. Is that still a thought to some that it is still desirable?

[TSonn]

I'm trying to figure out the game that KC is playing with Mahomes' ankle injury. Isn't it in their best interest to act like he's super hurt so CIN just might game plan differently or let their guard down? Instead they are acting like he's 100%...

Does that mean Henne is starting?

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by jplarson

Da ba dee da ba di?

Eiffel 65, 6th grade, like my 6th CD ever lol

[TheFrenzy]

Originally Posted by jplarson

Da ba dee da ba di?

I was always thought they were singing about Mahomes collectors.

"It's true that fifteen is my guy"

"If he blew his knee I would die"

[SleeperCards]

Originally Posted by kltomek

Not sure if it has been covered in this thread, guessing it has though, but any idea on the print run of the xrc? I personally love the card and I am hoping to get into one. To me and my budget, that is a grail. Is that still a thought to some that it is still desirable?

Yes, people will say go get the Prizm Gold or NT RPA, but those just aren't in the budget for most people. The XRC should be a desirable card for as long as Mahomes is desirable player. I don't know the print run of the card, but pulling a number out of my ass I would assume less than 1k based on POP reports.

[blockedbyjames]

Originally Posted by kltomek

Not sure if it has been covered in this thread, guessing it has though, but any idea on the print run of the xrc? I personally love the card and I am hoping to get into one. To me and my budget, that is a grail. Is that still a thought to some that it is still desirable?

Print run may be 300-400 or so but its hard to tell with countless crossover attempts from 2018-2020 when the price of grading was so cheap. XRC was his 1st rookie (yes people will debate that), but I've always found the card--especially the Tie-dye and golds incredibly sought after.

[blockedbyjames]

Originally Posted by TSonn

I'm trying to figure out the game that KC is playing with Mahomes' ankle injury. Isn't it in their best interest to act like he's super hurt so CIN just might game plan differently or let their guard down? Instead they are acting like he's 100%...

Does that mean Henne is starting?

Agree this is the weirdest handling of a super star's injury i've ever seen. If Mahomes is fine, the Chiefs struck out bigtime handling this. Mahomes should have been locked away from all media this week and shipped across the country to an ankle specialist to play up the injury. That's just common gamesmanship. -1 Andy Reid

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by blockedbyjames

Agree this is the weirdest handling of a super star's injury i've ever seen. If Mahomes is fine, the Chiefs struck out bigtime handling this. Mahomes should have been locked away from all media this week and shipped across the country to an ankle specialist to play up the injury. That's just common gamesmanship. -1 Andy Reid

IDK.... It seems like they are just coming into this one with the attitude that they are strong and not willing to act meek.

I have to imagine that Mahomes and Reid are saying to the team "Look, you're half billion dollar QB is putting it all on the line playing through this, so every one of you better show the same guts and determination" (looking at you, Mecole).

It's a focus on doing everything to best prep yourself for the game as opposed to spending time and energy on a charade of faking an injury.

Plus the team has to report daily injury status anyways, so what would be the point of having Mahomes walk out to the press conference in a boot, but then be listed as a full participant in practice? Seems like an unneeded distraction.

[blockedbyjames]

Originally Posted by tjforce

IDK.... It seems like they are just coming into this one with the attitude that they are strong and not willing to act meek.

I have to imagine that Mahomes and Reid are saying to the team "Look, you're half billion dollar QB is putting it all on the line playing through this, so every one of you better show the same guts and determination" (looking at you, Mecole).

It's a focus on doing everything to best prep yourself for the game as opposed to spending time and energy on a charade of faking an injury.

Plus the team has to report daily injury status anyways, so what would be the point of having Mahomes walk out to the press conference in a boot, but then be listed as a full participant in practice? Seems like an unneeded distraction.

I've seen the same vids as everyone else. "Full participant" is quite generous. He's clearly not taking any chances, doing anything risky, making any cuts, jukes, running drills, etc.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by blockedbyjames

I've seen the same vids as everyone else. "Full participant" is quite generous. He's clearly not taking any chances, doing anything risky, making any cuts, jukes, running drills, etc.

What videos of the closed sessions of practice have you seen?

I've only seen warmups where he's doing the same light stuff as the rest of the group.