Rolling 2017 Bowman Draft Autograph Checklist Thread

[azbaseballfan]

That is 'uuuuuge

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

[Jaypers]

Not getting anyone's hopes up unnecessarily, but the Lewis announcement may mean we're close to seeing the whole CL.

[sigmachi]

Originally Posted by Jaypers

Not getting anyone's hopes up unnecessarily, but the Lewis announcement may mean we're close to seeing the whole CL.

You think he was the "grand finale"? Would be nice to get a CL this early

[rutgersjpm]

Originally Posted by Jaypers

Not getting anyone's hopes up unnecessarily, but the Lewis announcement may mean we're close to seeing the whole CL.

I think you're right. With Leaf Metal Draft releasing Wednesday it would be a good move by Topps to share now.

[Jaypers]

Originally Posted by sigmachi

You think he was the "grand finale"? Would be nice to get a CL this early

The only one in the top 10 we don't know about yet is Kyle Wright.

After that, there's Trevor Rogers, Nick Pratto and J.B. Bukauskas in the top 20.

And after that, there's 9 more names in the remainder of the 1st round.

[PDCCollectibles]

[QUOTE=Jaypers;12963104]Royce Lewis added.

Very nice.....Pratto and Wright would be icing on this release, crossing my fingers

[TheWrightStuff]

Any guesses on sales prices for base autos?

[Cavaliercards]

Nice addition

[bdsparty32]

Hope to see the full CL today or tomorrow but the past 2 years it wasn’t realeased until 11/30 and 12/1

[azbaseballfan]

Originally Posted by TheWrightStuff

Any guesses on sales prices for base autos?

I will take a stab at a few guys. Out the gate I'm guessing:

Jo Adell $40-50

Keston Hiura $40-50

Jake Burger $25-30

Pavin Smith $35-45

Brendan McKay $70-90

MacKenzie Gore $35-45

Royce Lewis $80-100

I feel like I may be underestimating the hype on some of these guys though..

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

[lisu]

My guess on Heliot Ramos is also that he will be $35-$45.

[34JacktheRipper]

Originally Posted by azbaseballfan

I will take a stab at a few guys. Out the gate I'm guessing:

Jo Adell $40-50

Keston Hiura $40-50

Jake Burger $25-30

Pavin Smith $35-45

Brendan McKay $70-90

MacKenzie Gore $35-45

Royce Lewis $80-100

I feel like I may be underestimating the hype on some of these guys though..

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

I think you have Smith and McKay too high. I think McKay being on Tampa kills his card value. I see Smith around 20-25 and McKay 50-60

[azbaseballfan]

Originally Posted by 34JacktheRipper

I think you have Smith and McKay too high. I think McKay being on Tampa kills his card value. I see Smith around 20-25 and McKay 50-60

I originally typed 60-80 for McKay but it seemed like people were pretty pumped when his name was dropped. 60 seems like a solid bet. I will be happy if you are right about Pavin!

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

[Davis]

Originally Posted by azbaseballfan

I will take a stab at a few guys. Out the gate I'm guessing:

Jo Adell $40-50

Keston Hiura $40-50

Jake Burger $25-30

Pavin Smith $35-45

Brendan McKay $70-90

MacKenzie Gore $35-45

Royce Lewis $80-100

I feel like I may be underestimating the hype on some of these guys though..

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

Just doing some thinking on these...you may be 100%, but I have some questions as I don't know the new crop as well as I know last years. I think of 'out of the gate' pricing as the pricing about 5 days into the release. Of course some turd will overpay for the first one on ebay. Maybe I'm a little pesimistic, but I tried to lay out some comparable players/markets for the top guys.

MacKenzie Gore $35-45 - what makes this guy significantly value of a Cal Quantrell, AJ Puk, or Braxton Garrett? Bad market in SD and a pitcher rarely comes out of the gate this high. If Jay Groome comes out at $25, hard to see Gore topping that.

Royce Lewis $80-100 - seems reasonable. This is where Moniak started before the freefall. Dansby came out in this area too.

Jo Adell $40-50 - Athletic OF outside current top 100 rankings, with high potential. What makes him double the value of a guy like Taylor Trammell?

Keston Hiura $40-50 - Based on where I'm seeing him ranked, seems like he'd come out in the $15-20 range, similar to a Corey Ray.

Jake Burger $25-30 - Buried in the White Sox loaded system. Non-top 100 guy. Seems more like a Bobby Dalbec type seller around $10.

Pavin Smith $35-45 - Another bummer market with AZ. Top 100 guy...but if a guy like Leody Taveres is around $30, hard to see Pavin being more than that.

Brendan McKay $70-90 - Top 20 guy, but think about where Senzel came out last year. Hard to see McKay getting close to Senzel $. Seems more like a $50-60 guy.

Ramos has been mentioned as another big card. Guy had a stellar first season of pro ball so it'll be interesting to see where he lands. But again, hard to see him going more than a Leody or Lazarito in the $25 - $30 range.

[lisu]

Originally Posted by Davis

Ramos has been mentioned as another big card. Guy had a stellar first season of pro ball so it'll be interesting to see where he lands. But again, hard to see him going more than a Leody or Lazarito in the $25 - $30 range.

Fan base. Giants fan base > Athletics/Rangers

[Davis]

Originally Posted by lisu

Fan base. Giants fan base > Athletics/Rangers

I know you're fond of the Giants, but what makes it a different scenario than Chris Shaw, Brian Reynolds, and Tyler Beede? Shaw has had great numbers. Arroyo's big drop in value probably has most to do with performance in the Show last year.

[lisu]

Originally Posted by Davis

I know you're fond of the Giants, but what makes it a different scenario than Chris Shaw, Brian Reynolds, and Tyler Beede? Shaw has had great numbers. Arroyo's big drop in value probably has most to do with performance in the Show last year.

Arroyo's big drop was due to his injury. His prices actually didn't drop until August/September when people realized he wasn't coming back.

We can't compare Beede because he's a pitcher.

Bryan Reynolds is an interesting comparison, but he isn't an exciting player. He projects to be an everyday outfielder with a good hit tool, but not a lot of power.

Chris Shaw has the power, but he doesn't have a position with the Giants yet. When he initially came out though, he was selling in the $35-$45 range which is what I am projecting Heliot Ramos to be at.

Even Joe Panik sold between $20-$30 right out of the gate, and people never really projected him to be much.

Heliot Ramos is projected to be a 5 tool player, and that is exciting. Power/Speed/Defense.

I would expect him to sell for $35-$45 right out of the gate. That is what we're talking about and not where it's going to be a few months later.

[34JacktheRipper]

Originally Posted by Davis

Just doing some thinking on these...you may be 100%, but I have some questions as I don't know the new crop as well as I know last years. I think of 'out of the gate' pricing as the pricing about 5 days into the release. Of course some turd will overpay for the first one on ebay. Maybe I'm a little pesimistic, but I tried to lay out some comparable players/markets for the top guys.

MacKenzie Gore $35-45 - what makes this guy significantly value of a Cal Quantrell, AJ Puk, or Braxton Garrett? Bad market in SD and a pitcher rarely comes out of the gate this high. If Jay Groome comes out at $25, hard to see Gore topping that.

Royce Lewis $80-100 - seems reasonable. This is where Moniak started before the freefall. Dansby came out in this area too.

Jo Adell $40-50 - Athletic OF outside current top 100 rankings, with high potential. What makes him double the value of a guy like Taylor Trammell?

Keston Hiura $40-50 - Based on where I'm seeing him ranked, seems like he'd come out in the $15-20 range, similar to a Corey Ray.

Jake Burger $25-30 - Buried in the White Sox loaded system. Non-top 100 guy. Seems more like a Bobby Dalbec type seller around $10.

Pavin Smith $35-45 - Another bummer market with AZ. Top 100 guy...but if a guy like Leody Taveres is around $30, hard to see Pavin being more than that.

Brendan McKay $70-90 - Top 20 guy, but think about where Senzel came out last year. Hard to see McKay getting close to Senzel $. Seems more like a $50-60 guy.

Ramos has been mentioned as another big card. Guy had a stellar first season of pro ball so it'll be interesting to see where he lands. But again, hard to see him going more than a Leody or Lazarito in the $25 - $30 range.

Regarding Adell, and Burger:

Adell- Trammell didn't have the type of hype Adell did coming out of the draft. Adell plays for a major market team in LA, combined with his upside should make him an easy $40 auto IMO, especially within a week of release.

Burger- Same as Adell- more hype than Dalbec had coming out. Chicago isn't a bad card market, plus this guy has big offensive upside.

[azbaseballfan]

Originally Posted by Davis

Just doing some thinking on these...you may be 100%, but I have some questions as I don't know the new crop as well as I know last years. I think of 'out of the gate' pricing as the pricing about 5 days into the release. Of course some turd will overpay for the first one on ebay. Maybe I'm a little pesimistic, but I tried to lay out some comparable players/markets for the top guys.

MacKenzie Gore $35-45 - what makes this guy significantly value of a Cal Quantrell, AJ Puk, or Braxton Garrett? Bad market in SD and a pitcher rarely comes out of the gate this high. If Jay Groome comes out at $25, hard to see Gore topping that.

Royce Lewis $80-100 - seems reasonable. This is where Moniak started before the freefall. Dansby came out in this area too.

Jo Adell $40-50 - Athletic OF outside current top 100 rankings, with high potential. What makes him double the value of a guy like Taylor Trammell?

Keston Hiura $40-50 - Based on where I'm seeing him ranked, seems like he'd come out in the $15-20 range, similar to a Corey Ray.

Jake Burger $25-30 - Buried in the White Sox loaded system. Non-top 100 guy. Seems more like a Bobby Dalbec type seller around $10.

Pavin Smith $35-45 - Another bummer market with AZ. Top 100 guy...but if a guy like Leody Taveres is around $30, hard to see Pavin being more than that.

Brendan McKay $70-90 - Top 20 guy, but think about where Senzel came out last year. Hard to see McKay getting close to Senzel $. Seems more like a $50-60 guy.

Ramos has been mentioned as another big card. Guy had a stellar first season of pro ball so it'll be interesting to see where he lands. But again, hard to see him going more than a Leody or Lazarito in the $25 - $30 range.

You bring up some good comps. I'm really just considering the first weeks following release though. After that anything could happen. The guys you mentioned have all played atleast a full year since their cards were released which has everything to do with where their current market value sits.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

[lisu]

Originally Posted by azbaseballfan

You bring up some good comps. I'm really just considering the first weeks following release though. After that anything could happen. The guys you mentioned have all played atleast a full year since their cards were released which has everything to do with where their current market value sits.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

Exactly. I agree with your initial assessment.

[Davis]

Originally Posted by azbaseballfan

You bring up some good comps. I'm really just considering the first weeks following release though. After that anything could happen. The guys you mentioned have all played atleast a full year since their cards were released which has everything to do with where their current market value sits.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

Gotcha. I agree on that the current values reflect their performance. But I was trying to think back of the initial prices of those guys when their 1st Bowman autos hit. I could be way off base, but I enjoy the discussion.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Let the price arguments commence! Generally speaking everyone is lower then release day prices.

Anyhow. Fingers crossed. Optimism for a reasonable sized auto checklist. If it stays small we may start to see a price bump.

[PDCCollectibles]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

Let the price arguments commence! Generally speaking everyone is lower then release day prices.

Anyhow. Fingers crossed. Optimism for a reasonable sized auto checklist. If it stays small we may start to see a price bump.

I was just thinking this....first couple days, we'll see a couple players over a hundo, colors will be flying off the board like crazy and all will be right in the card world, lol Then the race to the bottom, then some will complain about the race, realize it's the reality......again.....then onto the next release

[phil]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

If it stays small we may start to see a price bump.

It would have to be a really small print run to move much in price right now. Unfortunately there isn't enough money or demand currently in the baseball market to bump anything with even a moderate print run significantly. Maybe in February or March.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by phil

It would have to be a really small print run to move much in price right now. Unfortunately there isn't enough money or demand currently in the baseball market to bump anything with even a moderate print run significantly. Maybe in February or March.

I would normally agree with you 100% as draft kinda has a standard price. But this year prospecting and cards have gone nuts. Lets wait and see......a lot could still go wrong or right with this product.