2022 Topps Chrome Baseball Pre Sale.. thoughts?

[hanes1111]

Just updating

5500 Jumbo
4500 Hobby

[ThoseBackPages]

wowza!

[pewe]

Originally Posted by hanes1111

Just updating

5500 Jumbo
4500 Hobby

Who wants to bet the average case has no more than $500-1000 of actual card value in it???


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[premium1981]

Originally Posted by pewe

Who wants to bet the average case has no more than $500-1000 of actual card value in it???

No way. This will be the greatest product in the history of cards. This pricing has nothing to do with pump. Each case will have a minimum of $6,000 in value. Lock in now before prices quadruple.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by hanes1111

Just updating

5500 Jumbo
4500 Hobby

NICE!!

Must be a lot of demand for 2022 Topps Chrome Wander Franco and Bobby Witt Jr rookie cards!!

What other rookie cards might come out of this product? Julio Rodriguez?

[Higginsons Hero]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

NICE!!

Must be a lot of demand for 2022 Topps Chrome Wander Franco and Bobby Witt Jr rookie cards!!

What other rookie cards might come out of this product? Julio Rodriguez?

Torkelson and Riley Greene

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by Higginsons Hero

Torkelson and Riley Greene

SWEET!!

Anyone else?!

[pewe]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

NICE!!

Must be a lot of demand for 2022 Topps Chrome Wander Franco and Bobby Witt Jr rookie cards!!

What other rookie cards might come out of this product? Julio Rodriguez?

I hear Acuna, Soto, Ohtani, Tatis Jr. rookie cards and more will be in it!!!


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[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by pewe

I hear Acuna, Soto, Ohtani, Tatis Jr. rookie cards and more will be in it!!!


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You must be talking about a Bowman's Best product!!

This is a Topps Chrome product!!

[Asian62150]

Let this pre-sale stuff go to the moon. If you got in early and plan on flipping, great!

But these crazy prices are just more reason for me not to touch it.

If anything, I'll buy singles. If not, I'm happy sitting this one out----or using funds to buy more 2018!!!

[pewe]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

You must be talking about a Bowman's Best product!!

This is a Topps Chrome product!!

You had me worried for a second! I checked, and they are definitely in Chrome… whew!


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[THE(NEXT)LEVEL]

As long as people participate in breaks, box prices will stay ridiculous like this. It’s really getting absurd…

[brios8]

Originally Posted by hanes1111

Just updating

5500 Jumbo
4500 Hobby

shhh don't mention how much they keep going up lol...
Some people can't stand it and hate receiving good advice..

ohh and Witt hasn't even been announced potentially adding Jrod-Greene-Abrams
once they see they are $7000 and $6000 right after that they will keep saying how stupid BRIOS8 was lol

[brios8]

Originally Posted by pewe

Who wants to bet the average case has no more than $500-1000 of actual card value in it???


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I doubt it..Will be quite higher. Topps Chrome singles sell very well, considered by most the overall best rookie cards

check out Tatis-Vladdy prices and that's about what Witt-Franco will most likely be selling for.. with the potential fo Julio Rodriguez and others..

[pewe]

Originally Posted by brios8

I doubt it..Will be quite higher. Topps Chrome singles sell very well, considered by most the overall best rookie cards

check out Tatis-Vladdy prices and that's about what Witt-Franco will most likely be selling for.. with the potential fo Julio Rodriguez and others..

How many do you think you get for each per hobby case? Based on math…

4 base
0.5 refractor
0.25 prism
0.05 other parallel

Tatis raw
— base are ~$40-50
— refractor are ~$120-150
— prism are ~$250

Vlad raw
— base are ~$25-40
— refractor are $100-120
— prism are ~$200-225

At that rate, you’d have maybe $500 in cards. And then generously the rest of other parallels might add $100, and same for autos.

So $700 in value???


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[LVDan]

Haha
$100 per case in the autos at release is pretty conservative pewe.
I ain’t sayin it’s gonna be a good break at current prices but $700 seems low too.


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[pewe]

Originally Posted by LVDan

Haha
$100 per case in the autos at release is pretty conservative pewe.
I ain’t sayin it’s gonna be a good break at current prices but $700 seems low too.


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Haha! Mine above was just in response to the Wander + Witt autos.

Ok, let me try to be more accurate. My guess is they might show up every 10 cases (or worse, now with even longer autograph checklist). And base will sell for $500. That gives us maybe $100/case + maybe $200 in very rare parallel (that are $$$$ but show up maybe every 20 cases or so)

So, what, that gets us to $900 in a per case EV for Wander + Witt (if both remain hot through the season)???

Of course there will be other content that can be moved, so we shouldn’t ignore that, if folks work the smaller $$ items. Or get lucky with a rare Trout or something.


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[brios8]

Originally Posted by pewe

Haha! Mine above was just in response to the Wander + Witt autos.

Ok, let me try to be more accurate. My guess is they might show up every 10 cases (or worse, now with even longer autograph checklist). And base will sell for $500. That gives us maybe $100/case + maybe $200 in very rare parallel (that are $$$$ but show up maybe every 20 cases or so)

So, what, that gets us to $900 in a per case EV for Wander + Witt (if both remain hot through the season)???

Of course there will be other content that can be moved, so we shouldn’t ignore that, if folks work the smaller $$ items. Or get lucky with a rare Trout or something.


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What about color refractors?
pulling a Purple /299 and getting it graded PSA 10 would be about $1,500 for either Witt or Franco.. and if you pull an orange /25 in PSA 10 condition your talking $10-15,000

now if we add Julio Rodriguez to the list... you would get 3 players to pull autos-refractors

a chance at a $150,000 or more card if you pull their Super auto.. very unlikely, but hey that's why people rip.

PSA 10 base of these guys add a little more $ if you pull maybe 4-6 of each player and 3 gem.


To rip at current prices you most likely have to play the grading game to maximize returns.

[Goldie]

Originally Posted by brios8

What about color refractors?
pulling a Purple /299 and getting it graded PSA 10 would be about $1,500 for either Witt or Franco.. and if you pull an orange /25 in PSA 10 condition your talking $10-15,000

now if we add Julio Rodriguez to the list... you would get 3 players to pull autos-refractors

a chance at a $150,000 or more card if you pull their Super auto.. very unlikely, but hey that's why people rip.

PSA 10 base of these guys add a little more $ if you pull maybe 4-6 of each player and 3 gem.


To rip at current prices you most likely have to play the grading game to maximize returns.

How many cards numbered to /299 or less would you expect to get from a hobby case? 30-40? That means you'd have a 40-50% chance of getting a /299 or better Witt/Wander/Julio in your hobby case, and then probably a 50% chance (I feel that's generous given Topps' 2022 QC issues) of a gem (after paying $100+ at minimum for the privilege to have the card graded). I don't think that value is working out.

[imbluestreak23]

These prices are pretty disgusting.

Hoping the feds can crack down on wax breaking/gambling culture.

[brios8]

Originally Posted by Goldie

How many cards numbered to /299 or less would you expect to get from a hobby case? 30-40? That means you'd have a 40-50% chance of getting a /299 or better Witt/Wander/Julio in your hobby case, and then probably a 50% chance (I feel that's generous given Topps' 2022 QC issues) of a gem (after paying $100+ at minimum for the privilege to have the card graded). I don't think that value is working out.

PSA Grading is as low as $50 now. Topps Chrome is usually very gradeable, or at least one of the best to grade.

That's how it works with every box-case you break.. its not rocket science, but people still purchase them.. they know they can pay $5,000 for a case and get $1,000 back or they can pull some nice cards and get $15-20,000 back or win a jackpot and get $150,000 back...

My point has always been that this is good to invest in, but never said its good to rip.. time will tell how high these go, but 2020 Topps Chrome SINGLES have always been very popular, especially these past 2-3 years

[Goldie]

Originally Posted by brios8

PSA Grading is as low as $50 now. Topps Chrome is usually very gradeable, or at least one of the best to grade.

That's how it works with every box-case you break.. its not rocket science, but people still purchase them.. they know they can pay $5,000 for a case and get $1,000 back or they can pull some nice cards and get $15-20,000 back or win a jackpot and get $150,000 back...

My point has always been that this is good to invest in, but never said its good to rip.. time will tell how high these go, but 2020 Topps Chrome SINGLES have always been very popular, especially these past 2-3 years

You can't grade cards with >$1000 value for $50, you have to grade at the $100 level.

You are preaching to the choir here on the risk of ripping. You've already made a killing preordering and holding, and you have guaranteed profits from selling cases and can easily keep one for free with your profits to rip for fun.

I think the issue here with ripping is that products like Chrome are usually the high floor/solid ceiling products. You can always make some money on base/less rare refractors that get some of your cash back, or give you an opportunity to hold and sell later. But the autos were watered down 4 years ago, and now they've added vets. While there are definitely high dollar cards in this product, there's going to be people ripping these and getting $500 in cards. Those are the kind of odds you can accept with Flawless/NT basketball (at least up until the past couple of years) on a $5k case, but really if you make $3k on cards ripping this $5k case you've made a KILLING relative to the odds. It means you got some solid rookie color/hit a serious auto or two.

[brios8]

Originally Posted by Goldie

You can't grade cards with >$1000 value for $50, you have to grade at the $100 level.

You are preaching to the choir here on the risk of ripping. You've already made a killing preordering and holding, and you have guaranteed profits from selling cases and can easily keep one for free with your profits to rip for fun.

I think the issue here with ripping is that products like Chrome are usually the high floor/solid ceiling products. You can always make some money on base/less rare refractors that get some of your cash back, or give you an opportunity to hold and sell later. But the autos were watered down 4 years ago, and now they've added vets. While there are definitely high dollar cards in this product, there's going to be people ripping these and getting $500 in cards. Those are the kind of odds you can accept with Flawless/NT basketball (at least up until the past couple of years) on a $5k case, but really if you make $3k on cards ripping this $5k case you've made a KILLING relative to the odds. It means you got some solid rookie color/hit a serious auto or two.

Correct, that's about with almost any case.. a Friend just recently ripped a 2020 Bowman baseball Jumbo Case at about $7,000 and guess how much he would get in return if he was to prob sell every single card.. $1,000 most likely..
and now those cases are $14,000 and the prices of the singles are exactly the same as when they were $7,000/case.

if you pull a Witt-Franco Purple /299 its prob $500 raw and you can def get it graded for $50 and not be uncharged if it gems. At least that has been my experience

[pewe]

Originally Posted by Goldie

How many cards numbered to /299 or less would you expect to get from a hobby case? 30-40? That means you'd have a 40-50% chance of getting a /299 or better Witt/Wander/Julio in your hobby case, and then probably a 50% chance (I feel that's generous given Topps' 2022 QC issues) of a gem (after paying $100+ at minimum for the privilege to have the card graded). I don't think that value is working out.

Last year, all parallels #/299 or lower were ~12/hobby case.

My guess is odds are about the same this year, once you account for the added parallels. But the rarer than #/199 are now 28% harder to hit.

At that insertion rate, and 200 base cards, you are expecting 0.12 Wander + Witt parallels (that include some less desirable variations).

If they sell raw on average for $1000, you add $120 per case.

My math from above is still holding

We are at $920/case for average Wander + Witt

And worse issue? Median (ie most likely) will be much worse. It will have no parallels better than refractor and 4 base cards each. That’s a kick in the shorts on 50% of the cases. Fun times!


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[eastbayak]

Baseball wax prices are finally reaching basketball wax prices....of 2020.