Topps 582 Montgomery Club

[OneSickDegen]

Originally Posted by BRob1

well change is coming, Houdini said this is the last year he can do 100 case break on bowman as blowouts allocation is getting cut as they sell more dtc.


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This could be great for consumers overall but I still don't understand how they cut out allocations to huge breakers and distributors like Houdini/Blowout buying 100+ cases of product and expect to make up that money just dtc. I'd assume that's happening across the board and I doubt they drop prices if they already set a precedent with this release.

I think stagflation is real and happening.

Hobby boxes at Walmart in 2023??? lol

[kon jelly]

Originally Posted by OneSickDegen

This could be great for consumers overall but I still don't understand how they cut out allocations to huge breakers and distributors like Houdini/Blowout buying 100+ cases of product and expect to make up that money just dtc. I'd assume that's happening across the board and I doubt they drop prices if they already set a precedent with this release.

I think stagflation is real and happening.

Hobby boxes at Walmart in 2023??? lol

Topps makes significantly more money selling direct. And since they have product that sells out within minutes on their website they'd be crazy not to shift more of their product to that channel.

[OneSickDegen]

Originally Posted by kon jelly

Topps makes significantly more money selling direct. And since they have product that sells out within minutes on their website they'd be crazy not to shift more of their product to that channel.

So you think small breakers will still be around, just buying direct instead of getting an allocation? It seems like breakers are driving these hobby box sales. Not sure what the appetite is for the average bear spending $375/$775 for opening release of Bowman just to prop up a ridiculously inflated market IMO.

[random816]

At $300 a box Topps can suck it. The value is barely there to begin with... now thinking about ripping a box full of $12 packs is no longer fun either.

I may pick up a few blasters for fun... but as much of this stuff as they are printing starting to feel like 1988 all over again.

I can feel I won't be renewing my Montgomery club membership next year at this rate.

[notoriousrmb]

Topps should price these at $500.

Anyone buying at $300 will also buy at $500 due to FOMO, there's no other logical reason to buy Bowman hobby at $300.

Doesn't matter if it appears to be a lower cost than the online resellers, its still overpriced.

[crownand]

Originally Posted by random816

At $300 a box Topps can suck it. The value is barely there to begin with... now thinking about ripping a box full of $12 packs is no longer fun either.

I may pick up a few blasters for fun... but as much of this stuff as they are printing starting to feel like 1988 all over again.

I can feel I won't be renewing my Montgomery club membership next year at this rate.

You forgot to mention - if you are sucker to buy this 2022 Bowman Hobby Box from Topps dot com today, you'll likely not see it until June or maybe July at your doorstep!! And there is no customer serivce rep to help you out at all. Almost getting borderline scam job.

I will not be renewing my Montgomery membership and definitely never order from Topps website. Complete joke. With where the prices are at on these now, don't fall for the scam. Spend the $ elsewhere like on your mom for mother's day!!

[chester0711]

Originally Posted by OneSickDegen

This could be great for consumers overall but I still don't understand how they cut out allocations to huge breakers and distributors like Houdini/Blowout buying 100+ cases of product and expect to make up that money just dtc. I'd assume that's happening across the board and I doubt they drop prices if they already set a precedent with this release.

I think stagflation is real and happening.

Hobby boxes at Walmart in 2023??? lol

My guess is, Breakers get a "break" on pricing due to volume and wholesale pricing to boot. It may not be much but its enough for Topps to say they want to cut it back, when they can sell out at $300.

The comment about $500/box is true too.....people will pay it. Topps knows this. Oh and by the way, breakers will pay it too, they have to have product to break, right? Either that or they are finding a new gig. I dont see them wanting to do that.

Also, as box prices go up, it encourages more people to break, they can get in on product at a fraction of the price and still serve the gambling itch....

its really a win win for everybody except the actual card collector / consumer.

[WattsBarBro]

Originally Posted by crownand

You forgot to mention - if you are sucker to buy this 2022 Bowman Hobby Box from Topps dot com today, you'll likely not see it until June or maybe July at your doorstep!! And there is no customer serivce rep to help you out at all. Almost getting borderline scam job.

I will not be renewing my Montgomery membership and definitely never order from Topps website. Complete joke. With where the prices are at on these now, don't fall for the scam. Spend the $ elsewhere like on your mom for mother's day!!

as long as MC renewal isn't ridiculous, it's still well worth the price with just a few boxes we're able to get a guaranteed purchase on.

you would REALLY think there would be a dedicated customer service team for a membership club like that, though. But... we're also some of the idiots paying $300 for bowman hobby

[txrngr34]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

Topps should price these at $500.

Anyone buying at $300 will also buy at $500 due to FOMO, there's no other logical reason to buy Bowman hobby at $300.

Doesn't matter if it appears to be a lower cost than the online resellers, its still overpriced.

Not true. I bought my my one at $300 but that's basically my limit.

I don't really care about FOMO. I'm more about DTR - desire to rip. I'm a Bowman fan. But guaranteed, if next year's is close to $500 I'll happily pass.

The exception, for me, is something like First Edition. Sure, it's a manufactured scarcity thing too, but I like the considerably reduced print runs compared to Bowman proper. This I'll say some premium for.

[Merkle14]

Anyone's MetaZoo ship? Real talk

[notoriousrmb]

Originally Posted by chester0711

My guess is, Breakers get a "break" on pricing due to volume and wholesale pricing to boot.

One of the biggest misconceptions in the industry.

Breakers get most of their allocation from major distributors such as Southern Hobby, Gold River, Peach State, etc and ALL of these distributors have prices as high as the online mainstream sellers.

Difference is breakers can actually still move some of this overpriced stuff since they can have 25-30 people splitting the cost.

No breaker gets special treatment, unless they are employed by a major reseller and that reseller gets product cheaper.

[Cpdjoe77]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

One of the biggest misconceptions in the industry.

Breakers get most of their allocation from major distributors such as Southern Hobby, Gold River, Peach State, etc and ALL of these distributors have prices as high as the online mainstream sellers.

Difference is breakers can actually still move some of this overpriced stuff since they can have 25-30 people splitting the cost.

No breaker gets special treatment, unless they are employed by a major reseller and that reseller gets product cheaper.

Breaking is the way to go unfortunately. I can spend a fraction of the cost to get the team I want in a case/box break. It’s a blessing and a curse. It’s boomed as an industry in itself that it’s attracted so much more business that it’s raising costs but it’s also allowing people squeezed out to stay in to a degree that’s palatable to them


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[OneSickDegen]

Originally Posted by chester0711

its really a win win for everybody except the actual card collector / consumer.

This has the trappings of a ponzi scheme but I'm just an unwashed degen in Vegas

[JBLitz2012]

Originally Posted by Cpdjoe77

Breaking is the way to go unfortunately. I can spend a fraction of the cost to get the team I want in a case/box break. It’s a blessing and a curse. It’s boomed as an industry in itself that it’s attracted so much more business that it’s raising costs but it’s also allowing people squeezed out to stay in to a degree that’s palatable to them


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It's the way to go until it's not. For Bowman, in all likelihood you could buy a base auto of the biggest player in the set for less than a single jumbo box and for the same price as the most expensive spot in the break. If you collect a certain team try this as an experiment - see how many and what kinds of cards you can get at once for the same price as the break. And then watch a few breaks imagining that you have your team and compare the results. I think you'll find the breaks almost always burn you and when they don't you've already sunk so much into previous loser breaks that you're likely not breaking even.

Now if you're just joining breaks to gamble and not seeking anything other than the biggest card possible then have at it - it's probably the only way any normal person would ever have a shot at something like a superfractor. But I'd sooner just buy a single Bowman jumbo for $800 at the cost of 3.5 random teams in a jumbo case break so I could at least guarantee 3 autos and a box worth of color.

[OneSickDegen]

Buying into breaks is the hobby equivalent of scratch off tickets. Should be for entertainment value only, not looked at as an entry point into collecting. I'm a degenerate and I understand this.

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by Merkle14

Anyone's MetaZoo ship? Real talk

Nope.

[OneSickDegen]

Originally Posted by JBLitz2012

But I'd sooner just buy a single Bowman jumbo for $800 at the cost of 3.5 random teams in a jumbo case break so I could at least guarantee 3 autos and a box worth of color.

Yeah buying singles is definitely the way to go but you will always have the "awwe shucks fun rip" bois who gonna justify price of sealed wax regardless of how little sense it makes financially.

[STLtoMN]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

How doesn’t MSRP mean anything? There groups getting all hobby for 80% of MSRP and then charging 2-10 times MSRP for virtually every hobby product are the ones making out. MSRP is usually available to find on Panini products. I think Topps it’s mostly hidden now. I would consider 20% higher than what Topps charge their distributors to be MSRP. It doesn’t matter what I think an MSRP should be. It is whatever it is.

What world are you living in? You honestly believe supply and demand has determined presale and initial market pricing anytime recently? Gtfu lol. If they want to determine the actual market value they would do what Fanatics has discussed doing in the future. List the product, contents and the amount of boxes. Give every buyer the chance to bid for an amount of boxes they want and amount they will pay per box. Then we will see what the real market is. If you think that for instance 2021-22 Crown Royale FOTL would have sold out today anywhere near the around $685 a box it did you’re on drugs. If you think 2021 National Treasures football hobby would sell out anywhere near $6000 a box you’re on drugs.

These price manipulators/distributors/specifically BO and breakers are determining hobby and FOTL prices. More times than not BO has put up an initial price based on nothing but greed and that’s what’s considered the market price. These people literally had a presale for 2021-22 Noir hobby basketball for $3750 a box a few weeks ago. There is not a single person on earth with half a brain that would pay $3750 for a box with 10 cards where 99.9% of the cards are worth less than that and there isn’t one 6 figure card in the entire product. Yet that was what BO says the market is. The 0.0001% determine the price and the rest of us get screwed one way or another. Thanks to the manipulation, ROI is by far the lowest it has ever been. In terms of percentage and overall money lost.

your lack of understanding of basic business principles is confounding

[The Accountant]

Normally I’d be all about bowman, but I avoided all my allocations. There’s just better products for the price out there right now

[Cpdjoe77]

Originally Posted by JBLitz2012

It's the way to go until it's not. For Bowman, in all likelihood you could buy a base auto of the biggest player in the set for less than a single jumbo box and for the same price as the most expensive spot in the break. If you collect a certain team try this as an experiment - see how many and what kinds of cards you can get at once for the same price as the break. And then watch a few breaks imagining that you have your team and compare the results. I think you'll find the breaks almost always burn you and when they don't you've already sunk so much into previous loser breaks that you're likely not breaking even.

Now if you're just joining breaks to gamble and not seeking anything other than the biggest card possible then have at it - it's probably the only way any normal person would ever have a shot at something like a superfractor. But I'd sooner just buy a single Bowman jumbo for $800 at the cost of 3.5 random teams in a jumbo case break so I could at least guarantee 3 autos and a box worth of color.

I should’ve added on to that about buying singles too instead of breaking.


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[notoriousrmb]

Originally Posted by JBLitz2012

It's the way to go until it's not. For Bowman, in all likelihood you could buy a base auto of the biggest player in the set for less than a single jumbo box and for the same price as the most expensive spot in the break.

This is very true - but if you ever want anything more than a base auto, breaks do still make sense. Especially for team or player collectors. I'd rather buy my team in a multi case break and have a shot at color and parallels than just go out and buy one base auto of whoever the overpriced top 18-yr old of the month is.

That's the fun part of this hobby, options for everyone.

Except people who want to open their own boxes at a reasonable price.

[RayAg02]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

This is very true - but if you ever want anything more than a base auto, breaks do still make sense. Especially for team or player collectors. I'd rather buy my team in a multi case break and have a shot at color and parallels than just go out and buy one base auto of whoever the overpriced top 18-yr old of the month is.

That's the fun part of this hobby, options for everyone.

Except people who want to open their own boxes at a reasonable price.

Facts...unfortunately

[JBLitz2012]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

This is very true - but if you ever want anything more than a base auto, breaks do still make sense. Especially for team or player collectors. I'd rather buy my team in a multi case break and have a shot at color and parallels than just go out and buy one base auto of whoever the overpriced top 18-yr old of the month is.

That's the fun part of this hobby, options for everyone.

Except people who want to open their own boxes at a reasonable price.

Amen to your last point.

As far as team/player breaks I collect Astros so other than (kind of) Yordan Alvarez there isn't much hobby love so typically buying singles is still a better value proposition since the odds of getting a super low #d parallel are still slim. Looking through the lens of say an Angels or a Blue Jays fan with multiple hobby superstars, I can see how that might be different.

[OneSickDegen]

What's the O/U on how long the Bowman boxes will last on Topps when they drop to the unwashed masses?

[Bcr]

Originally Posted by OneSickDegen

What's the O/U on how long the Bowman boxes will last on Topps when they drop to the unwashed masses?

Hopefully long enough to use my fun coupon.