Patrick Mahomes Prices

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by HBMC

In watching the All-22, I think I might've found where Mahomes might've been dinged up a bit. His 2nd scramble (for 5 yards) was right before Pacheco's TD run and he kind of got thumped as he went down. His passes lacked their typical zip after this play for a bit.

That would explain the lackluster throw that lead to his first INT (the read was fine, the pass was too behind the play to be anything other than an INT). On the near INT to Mosley, I think Pat was expecting Kelce to continue to drag based on the timing of the play, Kelce stopped on the route after having a bit of a stutter step/slippage. Thankfully Mosley dropped it.

In a rare bad rep by Creed Humphrey, he got absolutely whipped by Bryce Huff on the 3rd down right before the Chiefs' 2nd FG. The Jets ran a twist and Huff was able to slip behind the trash as Quinnen Williams took out Taylor and Trey Smith. Carl Lawson also did a fine job spinning off of Donovan Smith and scraping across the entire pocket to force Mahomes to throw e

Other notes, the Jets got consistent pressure without bringing bodies on blitzes. After the first drive, Kelce was bracketed. Mahomes' ability to extend plays probably saved 2-3 sacks on the first couple series. His completion to Kelce (16 yarder) on a broken play involved him shifting back & forth laterally in the pocket 3 times. Don't know if anyone else can even do this on a consistent basis.

Wilson made several nice throws on busted plays, but he left a lot of meat on the bone when it came to getting more 1st downs early in the game.

Without digging too much deeper, the Chiefs played a very feisty football team and are lucky they didn't gag the game away.

Watched it myself, but I dont think Mahomes got dinged there at all.

Best evidence of that is that the very next drive was his best of the night where he tossed the TD to Gray. He was sharp.

Where it started to go downhill was the drive after that where the rhythm got killed. They began at the 2, and the drive started with a drop by Kelce for what should have been an easy 5 yards. Next play was a short run, then on 3rd down Mahomes delivered a perfect throw 20 yards down field between 3 defenders that MVS dropped*, and the play would have been negated anyways by the Taylor facemask.

Let's go to that MVS throw: Chiefs are 3x1 formation and the Jets are in a Cover-2 Man under defense. The inside man (MVS) flattens out a post corner and gets over the man DBs and under the Safety defending him. Mahomes lays in a difficult throw.

The very next offensive play is the first Mahomes interception: Chiefs are again in a 3x1 formation, but this time it is tight with 2 TEs and Watson lined up as almost a 3rd TE. MVS in now the outside guy. But this time the Jets adjust to some sort of 1-High Zone Under right before the snap and I believe this fools Mahomes. Instead of running with MVS, the man who trailed him across the formation actually sits in the flats. Mahomes first read is Kelce coming across the middle, which is covered, he then looked to the deep corner route of MVS but that's covered by both the CB and Safety, so he then makes the mistake of trusting his presnap read and throwing to mid level concept without ever seeing the guy dropped into the deep flat.

If that DB runs with MVS, then his throw there is perfect. Give credit where credit is due: The Jets defense just fooled him.

Another note on the play that was a Creed whiff.... The Jets again called the right defense. The several plays before the Chiefs did some window dressing with Toney in the backfield and ended up beating the defense when they tried to match up in man. Well, this time they put Toney in the backfield as a decoy and ran crossing routes over the middle, which played right into the Zone defense the Jets and called and nobody was open before the pressure got to Mahomes.

The only throw I don't really understand is the INT right before the half. He's trying to hit Kelce on the deep cross, but the linebacker sunk right into it, and there was really no reason to think that he wouldn't be there. I see this one as just an unforced error. Either he never saw the LB, or he just thought he could make a perfect throw. Not a typical play you see from Mahomes.

The drive to start the second half is odd. After a run play for a loss, Mahomes gets sacked by a Jets blitz and passed up a pretty easy 5 year slant by Kelce. The next play on 3rd and forever, he passes up a few check downs to heave up a bomb to MVS that drops to the turf.

IMO, those last 2 drives were Mahomes getting frustrated and trying to force the long play. The remedy for that? Well, after a short drive that was killed by a penalty, the Chiefs put together a long FG drive in which he completed 6 or 7 passes all at about 5 yards or less downfield. The drive ultimately fizzled inside the 10 when the field shrunk and the Jets were able to keep everything in front of them. But it was a drive where the Chiefs took the what the Jets gave them.

Then comes the last drive, 3rd and 23. Jets drop 6 guys 25 yards deep, rush 4, and send 1 guy to mirror McKinnon in the flats. It's a GREAT scheme to make sure none of Mahomes passing options come open, but it exposes the defense to one thing: QB scramble up the middle. Mahomes recognizes this and runs for 25 yards on the play of the game. His next throw is the same 5 yard flat throw to Kelce that the Jets gave him the last drive.

And finally, the beauty of the final 3rd down play to ice it:

This play was a designed QB draw. And I can't believe (or maybe I can), that the football geniuses calling the game couldn't recognize it. I'll give credit to the Chiefs here, this is totally out of their tendencies, and they ran it in a way that made it look like a lot of other pass plays at first.

So the plus of this game is that the Chiefs did adjust to what the defense was giving them: they ran the ball and started taking easy throws.

The minus to this is that the team doesn't seem to have anybody who can win 1 on 1 on the outside vs good defenders. Sure, they are able to vs the Bears, but they won't be seeing the Bears in the playoffs.

[Earlsnake07]

Originally Posted by jacksonjj

*Zach Wilson

Ohh yea....and that guy also - clearly missed which CRAP QB balled out.......

[pejc300]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Watched it myself, but I dont think Mahomes got dinged there at all.

Best evidence of that is that the very next drive was his best of the night where he tossed the TD to Gray. He was sharp.

Where it started to go downhill was the drive after that where the rhythm got killed. They began at the 2, and the drive started with a drop by Kelce for what should have been an easy 5 yards. Next play was a short run, then on 3rd down Mahomes delivered a perfect throw 20 yards down field between 3 defenders that MVS dropped*, and the play would have been negated anyways by the Taylor facemask.

Let's go to that MVS throw: Chiefs are 3x1 formation and the Jets are in a Cover-2 Man under defense. The inside man (MVS) flattens out a post corner and gets over the man DBs and under the Safety defending him. Mahomes lays in a difficult throw.

The very next offensive play is the first Mahomes interception: Chiefs are again in a 3x1 formation, but this time it is tight with 2 TEs and Watson lined up as almost a 3rd TE. MVS in now the outside guy. But this time the Jets adjust to some sort of 1-High Zone Under right before the snap and I believe this fools Mahomes. Instead of running with MVS, the man who trailed him across the formation actually sits in the flats. Mahomes first read is Kelce coming across the middle, which is covered, he then looked to the deep corner route of MVS but that's covered by both the CB and Safety, so he then makes the mistake of trusting his presnap read and throwing to mid level concept without ever seeing the guy dropped into the deep flat.

If that DB runs with MVS, then his throw there is perfect. Give credit where credit is due: The Jets defense just fooled him.

Another note on the play that was a Creed whiff.... The Jets again called the right defense. The several plays before the Chiefs did some window dressing with Toney in the backfield and ended up beating the defense when they tried to match up in man. Well, this time they put Toney in the backfield as a decoy and ran crossing routes over the middle, which played right into the Zone defense the Jets and called and nobody was open before the pressure got to Mahomes.

The only throw I don't really understand is the INT right before the half. He's trying to hit Kelce on the deep cross, but the linebacker sunk right into it, and there was really no reason to think that he wouldn't be there. I see this one as just an unforced error. Either he never saw the LB, or he just thought he could make a perfect throw. Not a typical play you see from Mahomes.

The drive to start the second half is odd. After a run play for a loss, Mahomes gets sacked by a Jets blitz and passed up a pretty easy 5 year slant by Kelce. The next play on 3rd and forever, he passes up a few check downs to heave up a bomb to MVS that drops to the turf.

IMO, those last 2 drives were Mahomes getting frustrated and trying to force the long play. The remedy for that? Well, after a short drive that was killed by a penalty, the Chiefs put together a long FG drive in which he completed 6 or 7 passes all at about 5 yards or less downfield. The drive ultimately fizzled inside the 10 when the field shrunk and the Jets were able to keep everything in front of them. But it was a drive where the Chiefs took the what the Jets gave them.

Then comes the last drive, 3rd and 23. Jets drop 6 guys 25 yards deep, rush 4, and send 1 guy to mirror McKinnon in the flats. It's a GREAT scheme to make sure none of Mahomes passing options come open, but it exposes the defense to one thing: QB scramble up the middle. Mahomes recognizes this and runs for 25 yards on the play of the game. His next throw is the same 5 yard flat throw to Kelce that the Jets gave him the last drive.

And finally, the beauty of the final 3rd down play to ice it:

This play was a designed QB draw. And I can't believe (or maybe I can), that the football geniuses calling the game couldn't recognize it. I'll give credit to the Chiefs here, this is totally out of their tendencies, and they ran it in a way that made it look like a lot of other pass plays at first.

So the plus of this game is that the Chiefs did adjust to what the defense was giving them: they ran the ball and started taking easy throws.

The minus to this is that the team doesn't seem to have anybody who can win 1 on 1 on the outside vs good defenders. Sure, they are able to vs the Bears, but they won't be seeing the Bears in the playoffs.

Absolutely love your breakdowns. As someone who has no formal experience (never played organized so don't know schemes, coverages, etc.) I really enjoy seeing these breakdowns.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by pejc300

Absolutely love your breakdowns. As someone who has no formal experience (never played organized so don't know schemes, coverages, etc.) I really enjoy seeing these breakdowns.

Thanks man, I do my best. And everything I review is just my interpretation to the best that I can decipher what's going on, so some folks might even see some of the details differently.

The bigger point is that what you see on TV that the broadcasters are telling you isn't the whole story. It was a high level chess move tricking Mahomes into that first INT. And it was a high level chess move calling a QB draw on 3rd and 8 to seal the game. And none of that gets discussed.

I wish there was more analysis of stuff like this going on then there was boo-hooing about refs making judgement calls, but alas, it's much easier to understand rage-bait then it is to recognize NFL Defensive schemes.

[SleeperCards]

Originally Posted by pejc300

Absolutely love your breakdowns. As someone who has no formal experience (never played organized so don't know schemes, coverages, etc.) I really enjoy seeing these breakdowns.

Careful, he's going to start an OnlyFans for this exclusive content and you'll have to pay up.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by SleeperCards

Careful, he's going to start an OnlyFans for this exclusive content and you'll have to pay up.

Think there's money to be made there?

[SleeperCards]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Think there's money to be made there?

Brett Kollman started out as a reddit shitposter and now I assume he makes money doing breakdown vids or whatever you'd call whatever it is he does. Are you more charismatic than a dish towel? I bet you could do it too.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by SleeperCards

Brett Kollman started out as a reddit shitposter and now I assume he makes money doing breakdown vids or whatever you'd call whatever it is he does. Are you more charismatic than a dish towel? I bet you could do it too.

Ha,, what'dya know.

My issue is that between the job, family, etc, I wouldn't have time to edit the vids.

Love watching film though. From high school, college, and then coaching HS ball after, nobody I knew spent as much time breaking down film as I did.

[weeds73]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Ha,, what'dya know.

My issue is that between the job, family, etc, I wouldn't have time to edit the vids.

Love watching film though. From high school, college, and then coaching HS ball after, nobody I knew spent as much time breaking down film as I did.

Just remember all of us lowly peasants when you make that FU money…




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[weeds73]

Since we don’t have a Kelce thread, thought I would post this here. Love this insert set. If they weren’t so expensive, it would be fun to put together the full set for 2020




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[MyckKabongo]

If you're interested in high quality Chiefs film breakdowns beyond what our friend TJ can provide I do heartily recommend Seth Keyzor's substack for $12/year. He used to write at Arrowhead Pride and was the OG conductor of the Mahomes train. Really sharp football mind and smart enough to admit his own biases and mistakes which I appreciate.

[Mikeh6480]

Originally Posted by weeds73

Since we don’t have a Kelce thread, thought I would post this here. Love this insert set. If they weren’t so expensive, it would be fun to put together the full set for 2020




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Probably my favorite insert overall. They look really good in hand especially if they are raw.

[pejc300]

Originally Posted by Mikeh6480

Probably my favorite insert overall. They look really good in hand especially if they are raw.

You still hanging on to that Optic Vinyl 1/1 RC?

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by pejc300

You still hanging on to that Optic Vinyl 1/1 RC?

Nah... he's packaging it up to ship my way as we speak as payment for my football insights!

I'm sure of it!

[HBMC]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Thanks man, I do my best. And everything I review is just my interpretation to the best that I can decipher what's going on, so some folks might even see some of the details differently.

The bigger point is that what you see on TV that the broadcasters are telling you isn't the whole story. It was a high level chess move tricking Mahomes into that first INT. And it was a high level chess move calling a QB draw on 3rd and 8 to seal the game. And none of that gets discussed.

I wish there was more analysis of stuff like this going on then there was boo-hooing about refs making judgement calls, but alas, it's much easier to understand rage-bait then it is to recognize NFL Defensive schemes.

You do more than a fine job explaining schemes. I share your disdain of absolutely mindless programming around football and if I had the time, I would be doing just this, the few channels who do it on YT are mostly amateurish.

Originally Posted by tjforce

Ha,, what'dya know.

My issue is that between the job, family, etc, I wouldn't have time to edit the vids.

The one thing none of us can buy, trade for or steal.

Just for context about the Jets this season, I had a gander at their other games in terms of raw numbers (I do not have the time to watch every snap of their D right now).

While the Jets are only 1-3, they are less than a whole football team right now. Clearly, they had no plan if Rodgers went down on offense and they might've finally found a plan to help Zach Wilson play better.

The Jets currently are 14th in Points Allowed, 23rd in Yards and have 7 sacks in four games (sacks aren't the be all, end all of effective pass rush, but it is nice to see a team get home with their rushers).

Their gross yards allowed per game thus far:

314 - Bills (217 pass, 97 Rush)
382 - Cowboys (248 Pass, 134 Rush)
358 - Patriots (201 Pass, 157 Rush)
401 - Chiefs (197 Pass, 204 Rush)

The highest passing total they've allowed thus far has been Dak Prescott's 248 yards, most of which was to CeeDee Lamb.

The more important stats to me:

41 Passing Attempts for Josh Allen, 7 bad throws (Bad Throw % of 17.9%), 5 sacks, 11 blitzes by the Jets, 2 hurries, 4 QB hits and 11 pressures (pressure % of 22%). He also had three picks and 2 fumbles during the game.

38 Attempts for Dak, 5 bad throws (13.5%), 1 sack, 10 blitzes, 0 hurries, 2 hits, 3 pressures (7.5%). To be entirely fair to the Jets, the Cowboys played extremely conservatively once they figured out the Jets couldn't move the ball very well, especially with all of the turnovers by the Jets' O. Dak almost threw a Pick 6 to Sauce before Halftime, Sauce just dropped it.

29 Attempts for Mac Jones, 7 bad throws (25.9%) 0 sacks, 3 blitzes, 3 hurries, 5 hits, 8 pressures (26.7%). They were able to get pressure without sending extras against Mac and it showed with how putrid the Patriots' offense was in this game. One long TD made Mac's day through the air. Chad Ryland was clutch too.

30 Attempts for Mahomes, 5 bad throws (17.2%), 1 sack, 7 blitzes, 8 hurries, 7 hits, 16 pressures in total for a pressure percentage of 45.7%. Usually if teams blitz Mahomes, it's bad news bears for them, not Sunday night.

I will be curious to see how the Jets D winds up statistically by the time the season is over.

[gottagitdemjs]

I wanted to throw this out there for those worried that Mahomes isn’t looking as good as he normally does…

2022 stats after the first 4 games: 45 receptions, 574 yds, 2 TDs.

2023 stats after the first 4 games: 45 receptions, 588 yds, 2 TDs.

[SleeperCards]

Originally Posted by gottagitdemjs

I wanted to throw this out there for those worried that Mahomes isn’t looking as good as he normally does…

2022 stats after the first 4 games: 45 receptions, 574 yds, 2 TDs.

2023 stats after the first 4 games: 45 receptions, 588 yds, 2 TDs.

I'm not worried, hopefully they get everything on track by the time playoffs roll around. I'm guessing those are the WR stats first 4 games?

[longbomberz]

Been plugging away at his Status run as I come across them at reasonable prices:

[weeds73]

Originally Posted by longbomberz

Been plugging away at his Status run as I come across them at reasonable prices:

Always been a fan of Donruss elite. Underrated set. Haven’t picked up many since 2017 though. Would like to pick up more over time

What years have you grabbed so far in the images above ?


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[tjforce]

Going to let the Chiefs run the ball....

They'll run the ball.

[Rabs]

Just not the same this year. It is evident. Variety of things.

[KhalDrogo]

Guessing Kelce misses a few weeks at minimum. Going to be rough without him.

[SleeperCards]

Non-contact probably not great.

[TheCrow]

Dang can't afford to lose Kelce again, they aren't playing that well as it is

[TheCrow]

Finally, BOOM!!!