The Official Options Thread - Page 132

Blazed · 03-14-2025, 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blazed

Mentioned this back in the stock market thread about 3 years ago

Don't really check my shares too much as I mainly focus on options for day trading

I think this 4 year term is going to be FNMA's release from conservatorship

When it's released FNMA should fly

Should have bought more back when it was a $1

Something to watch - it was over $7/sh the other day

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blazed

Tweets from Pulte after he got FHFA nomination yesterday evening

Good start

Was hoping for a bigger pop but not a bad start

i think the price target is/was $25

Blazed · 03-16-2025, 07:14 AM

Main event this week - FOMC rate decision Weds + Powell then OPEX on Fri

ajlaxmn · 03-16-2025, 08:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blazed

Main event this week - FOMC rate decision Weds + Powell then OPEX on Fri

I haven't been paying as attention to the possibility of a rate cut like in previous FOMC decisions. Is the likelihood of a rate cut the same as last decision or slightly higher? I'll play it as usually, VERY LIGHT, just to get the experience. Wondering if no change would result in more of a drop than last decision, which didn't seem to have much movement.

Blazed · 03-16-2025, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

I haven't been paying as attention to the possibility of a rate cut like in previous FOMC decisions. Is the likelihood of a rate cut the same as last decision or slightly higher? I'll play it as usually, VERY LIGHT, just to get the experience. Wondering if no change would result in more of a drop than last decision, which didn't seem to have much movement.

Pretty sure Powell was supposed to cut last FOMC but didn't because he was being a duckhead because he doesn't like the current President

This is the last FOMC until May so I'd expect a cut because we already know the economy is in the crapper after the latest GDP downward revision

So a big move is coming just depends on which way Powell wants to send it

If I was guessing though, I'd say Powell will pump it because hedge funds and MM's got some sweet entries last week when the market crashed lower than expected. Mentioned last week that it looked like hedge funds were trying to get a good entry by driving it down more, so we'll see

Blazed · 03-17-2025, 08:23 AM

Cold retail sakes sent futures up. Looks like a cut is expected but not sure if we’ll get one this time

Probably going to depend on Powells words and tone again

Not trading today, but I’ll check on the market throughout the day

Blazed · 03-19-2025, 06:58 AM

No trades until 2

FOMC @ 2, Powell @ 2:30

TSLA's been getting drilled. BYD is killin it, lots of competition from
Chinese EV manufacturers

BYD Zhengzhou factory will be BIGGER than San Francisco - 10x LARGER than the Tesla Gigafactory Nevada

ajlaxmn · 03-19-2025, 12:31 PM

Just logging in, went into work for OT vice trading because of FOMC. Figured I could make money as opposed to just watching the market with no intent of trading until a set time.

Blazed · 03-19-2025, 12:49 PM

FOMC in 15

Worth noting:

Quote:

Nvidia, $NVDA, CEO says Nvidia, $NVDA, is "preparing to manufacture on-shore [in the US]" in response to higher tariffs

That is the point and goal of tariffs. TO get manufacturing back over here and bring jobs back over here

Too many people have no idea what the goal of tariffs is. Long story short, most Americans are stupid and believe the slanted media narrative

Blazed · 03-19-2025, 12:57 PM

FOMC

SPX: 5650 / 5700 (5710) / 5625 / 5600 / 5555

See what Powell says

Don't care which way it goes, just hope it's got a nice range

Will be patient for entry

Watching for a pop / drop @ 2

Blazed · 03-19-2025, 01:12 PM

No change - Powell is just being a donkey

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blazed

Watching for a pop / drop @ 2

Watching for a pop / drop @ 2✅

Now wait for Powell - range wasn't there on the news

Pop then drop

If they hold this area 5650 could see some upside. Depends on Powell

Blazed · 03-19-2025, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blazed

If they hold this area 5650 could see some upside. Depends on Powell

Boom

ajlaxmn · 03-19-2025, 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blazed

Boom

Saw the bounce right before powell started speaking, however didn't enter. Were you basing the entry on bounce and the MA's in addition to no rate change? Being that it was right before he started speaking I didn't enter based on that alone.

ajlaxmn · 03-19-2025, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blazed

Boom

Also, why the ten minute chart? FOMC decision only?

Blazed · 03-19-2025, 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

Saw the bounce right before powell started speaking, however didn't enter. Were you basing the entry on bounce and the MA's in addition to no rate change? Being that it was right before he started speaking I didn't enter based on that alone.

Based it on holding 5650 whole psych (also the 20dayma / orange line) as I mentioned + strong buying volume but since it was FOMC it was a higher risk trade as well but the R/R was there

Blazed · 03-19-2025, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

Also, why the ten minute chart? FOMC decision only?

Basically. Also to see the trade play out better and not get stopped out as easy in case it chopped around or had bigger moves

Blazed · 03-19-2025, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blazed

FOMC

SPX: 5650 / 5700 (5710) / 5625 / 5600 / 5555

Retest of 5710 was the spot for puts. I didn't take any there but it played out nicely

Back at it tomorrow

ajlaxmn · 03-19-2025, 05:36 PM

FOMC today, took one trade, 565 Put when SPX broke below 5650, not bad position, but didn't cut with bounce of 5638 ATR as I was looking for a bigger move, however the key indicator to cut more than the bounce would have been the lack of a large move based on initial rate decision, this would also have been an indicator that their wasn't enough of a range to consider entering a position. Didn't enter the 5650 bounce as it was right before Powell was going to speak so was not convinced on the risk (to which being FOMC there was risk, as Blazed pointed out, the R/R was there, not exactly in my thought process at the time).

Only other trade I almost entered was 5713 reject, 1m broke above but closed below, next 1m rejected along with SPY rejecting the SPY ATR as well, market had moved all the way up so even with the buying volume the position could also have been based on the range being reached on the day, the break above on ATR and close below and reject were pretty clean to be honest, not other way to put it than that, break above/close below/reject/SPY reject.

Lost $83 on the SPY put based on rate decision. Live and learn. Papertrade on demand until next Wednesday when I live trade.

Blazed · 03-20-2025, 11:22 AM

Not trading options today after the big win yesterday but will be trading OPEX (triple witching) tomorrow if there's range

Watching to add TSLA equity @ 200 - 210 leaving room to add @ 190/185 area - check charts

Worth noting:

Paying for food deliveries in installment plans is crazy.... like wtf are people doing?

Quote:

DoorDash, $DASH, and Klarna have signed a deal where customers can choose to pay for food deliveries in interest-free installments

lane121 · 03-20-2025, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blazed

Worth noting:

Paying for food deliveries in installment plans is crazy.... like wtf are people doing?

This is the most wild thing I’ve ever seen 😂

lane121 · 03-20-2025, 08:06 PM

Nike looks interesting to me if it can drop to 60.20 for an equity addition, then another add around 54.50 or so.

Blazed · 03-21-2025, 08:29 AM

Nice AM futures dump this morning

Price swings across the board to be expected

Whole psych numbers on watch

SPX: 5539 / 5600 / 5650 / 5675&80 / and gap @ 5632.3

Blazed · 03-21-2025, 09:19 AM

If we don't get above 5650 by 2 it'll be interesting

Big gamma today, 10 times the size of yesterday

Blazed · 03-21-2025, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blazed

Nice AM futures dump this morning

Price swings across the board to be expected

Whole psych numbers on watch

SPX: 5539 / 5600 / 5650 / 5675&80 / and gap @ 5632.3

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blazed

If we don't get above 5650 by 2 it'll be interesting

Big gamma today, 10 times the size of yesterday

In calls off the second retest of 5600 - holding until 5650. Need to hit the MA before 2

lane121 · 03-21-2025, 10:10 AM

Blazed, I would think an ATR combined with an MA would be a higher probability trade too? I’m still adapting to using the MA’s with the volatility. Also, with the added volatility would you still recommend trimming every 10pts, just maybe a smaller percentage trim? Thanks!

I was watching for a break below the whole psych with the ATR only slightly above, so didn’t catch the big move.

Blazed · 03-21-2025, 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lane121

Blazed, I would think an ATR combined with an MA would be a higher probability trade too? I’m still adapting to using the MA’s with the volatility. Also, with the added volatility would you still recommend trimming every 10pts, just maybe a smaller percentage trim? Thanks!

I was watching for a break below the whole psych with the ATR only slightly above, so didn’t catch the big move.

ATR's still work. I just don't have my usual set up right now as I'm getting some remodeling in the house done so I'm using MA's instead of ATRs. But they still work the same and some line up - mainly look for ones that line up with whole psych

I still trim every 10pts. Not trimming today only because it's OPEX and I'm willing to give some profits back since I've had 2 huge weeks

Wasn't looking for a break below 5600, i don't even see a place we stop sliding below 5600 yet. So I believe it holds and they were saving volume for 5600

They filled the gap, but didn't hit 5650 yet. 5640 high so far

03-16-2025, 07:14 AM	#3277
Blazed Member Join Date: Dec 2011 Location: Houston, TX Posts: 3,293 Blazed Blazed	Main event this week - FOMC rate decision Weds + Powell then OPEX on Fri __________________ Everyday you wake up you’re guaranteed a chance and a choice. What you do with them is up to you. Make it a great day, or not. The choice is yours 🫡

03-17-2025, 08:23 AM	#3280
Blazed Member Join Date: Dec 2011 Location: Houston, TX Posts: 3,293 Blazed Blazed	Cold retail sakes sent futures up. Looks like a cut is expected but not sure if we’ll get one this time Probably going to depend on Powells words and tone again Not trading today, but I’ll check on the market throughout the day __________________ Everyday you wake up you’re guaranteed a chance and a choice. What you do with them is up to you. Make it a great day, or not. The choice is yours 🫡

03-19-2025, 06:58 AM	#3281
Blazed Member Join Date: Dec 2011 Location: Houston, TX Posts: 3,293 Blazed Blazed	No trades until 2 FOMC @ 2, Powell @ 2:30 TSLA's been getting drilled. BYD is killin it, lots of competition from Chinese EV manufacturers BYD Zhengzhou factory will be BIGGER than San Francisco - 10x LARGER than the Tesla Gigafactory Nevada __________________ Everyday you wake up you’re guaranteed a chance and a choice. What you do with them is up to you. Make it a great day, or not. The choice is yours 🫡

03-19-2025, 12:31 PM	#3282
ajlaxmn Member Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Turner, ME Posts: 7,277 ajohnbarker	Just logging in, went into work for OT vice trading because of FOMC. Figured I could make money as opposed to just watching the market with no intent of trading until a set time. __________________ Die hard Chargers Fan from the State of Maine. "Always with them negative waves"- Oddball "Uh-uh, I don't tip"- Mr. Pink

03-19-2025, 12:57 PM	#3284
Blazed Member Join Date: Dec 2011 Location: Houston, TX Posts: 3,293 Blazed Blazed	FOMC SPX: 5650 / 5700 (5710) / 5625 / 5600 / 5555 See what Powell says Don't care which way it goes, just hope it's got a nice range Will be patient for entry Watching for a pop / drop @ 2 __________________ Everyday you wake up you’re guaranteed a chance and a choice. What you do with them is up to you. Make it a great day, or not. The choice is yours 🫡

03-19-2025, 05:36 PM	#3292
ajlaxmn Member Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Turner, ME Posts: 7,277 ajohnbarker	FOMC today, took one trade, 565 Put when SPX broke below 5650, not bad position, but didn't cut with bounce of 5638 ATR as I was looking for a bigger move, however the key indicator to cut more than the bounce would have been the lack of a large move based on initial rate decision, this would also have been an indicator that their wasn't enough of a range to consider entering a position. Didn't enter the 5650 bounce as it was right before Powell was going to speak so was not convinced on the risk (to which being FOMC there was risk, as Blazed pointed out, the R/R was there, not exactly in my thought process at the time). Only other trade I almost entered was 5713 reject, 1m broke above but closed below, next 1m rejected along with SPY rejecting the SPY ATR as well, market had moved all the way up so even with the buying volume the position could also have been based on the range being reached on the day, the break above on ATR and close below and reject were pretty clean to be honest, not other way to put it than that, break above/close below/reject/SPY reject. Lost $83 on the SPY put based on rate decision. Live and learn. Papertrade on demand until next Wednesday when I live trade. __________________ Die hard Chargers Fan from the State of Maine. "Always with them negative waves"- Oddball "Uh-uh, I don't tip"- Mr. Pink

03-20-2025, 08:06 PM	#3295
lane121 Member Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 1,760	Nike looks interesting to me if it can drop to 60.20 for an equity addition, then another add around 54.50 or so.

03-21-2025, 08:29 AM	#3296
Blazed Member Join Date: Dec 2011 Location: Houston, TX Posts: 3,293 Blazed Blazed	Nice AM futures dump this morning Price swings across the board to be expected Whole psych numbers on watch SPX: 5539 / 5600 / 5650 / 5675&80 / and gap @ 5632.3 __________________ Everyday you wake up you’re guaranteed a chance and a choice. What you do with them is up to you. Make it a great day, or not. The choice is yours 🫡

03-21-2025, 09:19 AM	#3297
Blazed Member Join Date: Dec 2011 Location: Houston, TX Posts: 3,293 Blazed Blazed	If we don't get above 5650 by 2 it'll be interesting Big gamma today, 10 times the size of yesterday __________________ Everyday you wake up you’re guaranteed a chance and a choice. What you do with them is up to you. Make it a great day, or not. The choice is yours 🫡

03-21-2025, 10:10 AM	#3299
lane121 Member Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 1,760	Blazed, I would think an ATR combined with an MA would be a higher probability trade too? I’m still adapting to using the MA’s with the volatility. Also, with the added volatility would you still recommend trimming every 10pts, just maybe a smaller percentage trim? Thanks! I was watching for a break below the whole psych with the ATR only slightly above, so didn’t catch the big move.