Michael Jordan RC, PSA 10, shatters 100k !!!

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

That’s not what you said, but okay!

Pretty amazing to set a moving target just 28 minutes later.

The peak of MJ cards is now except for rare inserts and parallels!!!!

No, I meant the peak of #57 is now!!!

He was speaking directly in reference to a post about 57. He also made an exception for the inserts and parallels in the middle of the post.

I seriously don’t get the “take someone out of context and post demeaning comment even though it’s not what they said or intended” shtick.

[GatorPie]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

Supposing it's a younger generation on average collecting LeBron, they'll have less generational wealth than the generation that grew up with MJ. It's somewhat akin to the Mantle-Griffey comparison. Mantle 52T cards made a big rally in the early 90s, when BV in EX-MT went from around $7K to around $30K. They have since rallied again, to where a nicely-centered 6 will run you about $100K. All while Griffey RCs became the biggest deal to the 'junk-wax generation.' (And with cards of Babe Ruth, whom few people alive today even saw play, values hardly ever seem to stagnate.)

As for the run-up of 2020-21, that may not be seen again. I hadn't seen anything like that run-up in such a period of time until then. But I sure wouldn't count on the prices not again reaching even Feb 2021 levels (let's say over $20K in TPG'd NM-MT) within the next 15-20 years, probably even 10 years. I would count on lots of disposable luxury income/wealth to be generated in ever-increasing amounts over that time frame (with ups and downs along the way).

Even if Bron ends up matching MJ in the GOAT debate, I don't know if the 6 titles in 6 appearances and 6 FMVP thing is going to be exceeded in fans'/collectors' minds. As cards go, the loyalty to the #57 is not divided up among so many cards like with Bron rookies, and its relation to the Star #101 is very much like the relation of the 52T Mantle to the 51B. Its status as the most prominent card in sports collecting is pretty well cemented.

Like others in the forum I can see its having a new temporary floor of somewhere in the $5-7K range for an 8, and even not moving up much for up to a decade, but I wouldn't doubt there will be another rally and new floor at 2-3x that for much longer than a decade.

(Figure on roughly a doubling of the stock market per decade on average. The non-GOAT-collecting market might well track that, while the extra marginal luxury dollar will continue to fuel prices on the cards of GOATS at a faster rate than that, like it has for decades now. I wouldn't conflate there being a lot of #57s - no one denies this - with the total market valuation and average price not being super-impressive. All that means is that the even-rarer MJ issues like the #101 or PMG will rise even faster, basically like how the M101 Ruth RC keeps rising relative to the 33 Goudeys which themselves keep breaking records. As for the #57, a price floor of $6K in NM-MT condition by this or next year still means 10x what it was 30 years earlier *after* a run-up to about 4x of first-issue Beckett prices, so we're talking basically a 40x run-up from the time that MJ was already the biggest star in the NBA and of sports, period. Heck, by the time he established himself as GOAT-worthy in the late '90s, his PSA 8s were just cracking $1K, and by that time the Dow had hit 6-8K. The Dow broke 3K some time in 1991 IIRC and is a little over 10x of that now, and about 4-5x its late '90s figure. A $6K floor still puts #57 growth at a faster clip than the Dow since the late '90s. It's about 8x its early-2010s price of around $750 which is indeed lower than its dotcom-period peak and after 2 recessions. And they still managed to rally to around $3K before last year, or 4x over ~8 years, during a time that Bron pretty much built his case for the other strongest GOAT contender. So I'm not saying the #57 is a good buy for over the next half-decade, but for beyond a decade from now it may be as good a bet as any.)

I appreciate the reasoned discussion, even if we may disagree.

I just go back to my primary point: too many cards. That's what's going to hold the card back. If you want a long-term hold, get a Star 101.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

He was speaking directly in reference to a post about 57. He also made an exception for the inserts and parallels in the middle of the post.

I seriously don’t get the “take someone out of context and post demeaning comment even though it’s not what they said or intended” shtick.

Sorry bud. I read it that he though the greatest peak of MJ cards was February with some exceptions for super rare inserts and parallels. Guess I misread it.

Originally Posted by GatorPie

I think the future will show that the greatest peak of MJ cards, probably ever, will be from when the “Last Dance” started until the middle of February of 2021. I don’t see them fetching prices like that again in our lifetimes. There will be some exceptions for the super-rare inserts and parallels. There will also always be a good market for the dead-centered copies, but nothing like this past year.

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Can't wait to quote this in a few years. Most 90s inserts (regardless of rarity) continue to set records each week. MJ isn't going anywhere but up over the long term. Why? Because of Jordan Brand. He will be relevant for as long as Jordan Brand is relevant. Which isn't going anywhere during our lifetime.

[sebreg]

Originally Posted by GatorPie

I appreciate the reasoned discussion, even if we may disagree.

I just go back to my primary point: too many cards. That's what's going to hold the card back. If you want a long-term hold, get a Star 101.

100% agree on that.

[GOATcards]

I figure it this way: using the rule of 72 and growth of around 7% a year, the average expected return on the Dow over the next decade is about 2x. (Over the past 50 or so years, the Dow went from around 1K to around 32K. Yep, that's about a doubling every decade on average.) I'm pretty sure if you built an index of blue-chip sports cards its average return exceeds the Dow's, because of the marginal-luxury-dollar-outlet thingy. But let's just assume a return equaling the Dow's expected average return, and a price floor of $6K really soon. (I mean, I'm speaking of a *floor*. It might not reach that floor.) An expected Dow of 4x in 20 years, merely matched in growth in blue-chip cards, means an expected $24K for a NM-MT #57 20 years from now. And $48K 30 years from now.

The growth for #101 will probably resemble more that of rare vintage material. All I know is that since 36 years ago, the NM-MT Wagner has increased probably in the area of 100x while the Dow has gone up about 20x. But that's an exceptional case of something ultra-rare, so you'd have to temper expectations somewhat for the #101, but not to merely-tracking-Dow-growth levels. The point being that the known rarity of the #101 relative to the #57 doesn't somehow suppress average demand for the #57 but fuels it for the #101 (and other Star issues and rare inserts/parallels). Sure there are a "ton" of #57s but also a ton of demand that just can't be driven into these rare items because they are in fact so rare (but aside from, oh, the '95 Natural Born Thrillers I'm not seeing the inherent aesthetic and rookie-card-oriented collector appeal that would justify PMG Green prices above and beyond their contrived ultra-rarity . . . and a PSA 10 #57 can be expected to command $1M using the *modest* Dow-tracking formula above and a short-term price floor of $200k within about . . . well, 23 years ).

[KhalDrogo]

Calling the peak of 57 now is like calling the peak of AAPL back at the end of 2012. This is the ebb and flow of the market. As an owner of zero 57s, they will regain their lost ground as supply and demand balances out.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by GatorPie

I appreciate the reasoned discussion, even if we may disagree.

I just go back to my primary point: too many cards. That's what's going to hold the card back. If you want a long-term hold, get a Star 101.

You're looking at a large quantity of units which isn't much of a consideration in itself. There may well be millions of units of Apple stock out there in the market but what is the demand relative to the units? That's why market capitalization is used as a measure for this $2T company (which is either over-valued, under-valued or valued properly on criteria other than number of shares outstanding).

My analysis is based on total-market-value (not sure whether "market capitalization" is the right terminology here) and so isn't affected by the relatively large quantity (compared to Star issues or rare inserts/parallels). The large quantity of them is already built into price expectations.

The small quantity of rare Star issues and the insert/parallels figures into the extra boost they should be expected to get, assuming that the marginal luxury dollars from financial wealth increases (whether from Apple stock or higher-risk-higher-return emerging-markets funds or what have you) will flow into them first and foremost. So, sure, the #101 should be a better hold longer-term. That probably means being affected more by short-term risks a la the emerging-market funds, or other factors. I mean, after all, the 'NM-MT' Wagner went from $100K to $640K in 6 years, meaning that a $10M valuation now means underperforming the Dow since '91 (something like a 15x for the Wagner vs. 30x for the Dow), although vastly outperforming the Dow for that 6 years (over 6x as compared to around 2x). The PMG Green MJ fits the very profile of a luxury asset but those take the heaviest hits in recessions....

[GatorPie]

We're going to revisit this discussion in 50 years and some of you guys are going to look foolish. I will be right here.

[interestingcool]

Some of you are killing me, taking about the 57 like it’s yesterday’s trash now. Lol. Give me a break. It’s the most iconic Jordan card on the face of the Earth. It has probably been resubmitted so many times that its population is severely inflated. For the popularity of Jordan as the goat and the popularity of basketball as a global game, I really don’t think there are very many to go around. Add in the fact that there was a deluge of these put onto the market lately and you shouldn’t be surprised that it has come back down to where it has. But over time it will trend upwards. If you don’t think so give me an example of another similarly iconic card that has gone down in value over the years.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by GatorPie

We're going to revisit this discussion in 50 years and some of you guys are going to look foolish. I will be right here.

Just as foolish as I looked when it took a haircut from six figures to under $70k less than a year ago?

[interestingcool]

Originally Posted by GatorPie

We're going to revisit this discussion in 50 years and some of you guys are going to look foolish. I will be right here.

GatorPie. May I ask: do you own an 86 Fleer Jordan?

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by GatorPie

We're going to revisit this discussion in 50 years and some of you guys are going to look foolish. I will be right here.

As my analysis made clear, I'm not disagreeing that the #101 will experience higher average returns than #57 over the long run. My analysis also says that even assuming a $6K price floor and merely rising along with the Dow, in 50 years we'll see an expected 32x of the Dow (assuming 7% growth). 32 x $6K is nearly $200K, close to 10x the recent Feb 2021 peak. Sounds entirely plausible to me, and again that's a modest projection. (It likely means even more impressive returns on the #101. What's 32 times 2 times a short-term floor for 8s of $30K? Around $2M? Okay, sounds believable. That's 10 times the expected 50-year price for a #57 compared to a 5x-ish ratio right now.)

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Just as foolish as I looked when it took a haircut from six figures to under $70k less than a year ago?

Had to go look this up again. Went from over $100k to $51k in a June auction with PWCC. So a 50% haircut that some said wasn’t recoverable. Yet here we are, and people think the card can’t recover from a lesser drop?

[GatorPie]

Originally Posted by interestingcool

GatorPie. May I ask: do you own an 86 Fleer Jordan?

Nope, missed the boat. When the BGS 9 gets under 10K (and it will within six months), I may have to start considering it. Need one for the PC.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Had to go look this up again. Went from over $100k to $51k in a June auction with PWCC. So a 50% haircut that some said wasn’t recoverable. Yet here we are, and people think the card can’t recover from a lesser drop?

This is for PSA 10 #57? I see $99K in May 2020 followed by $62K the next month.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

This is for PSA 10 #57? I see $99K in May 2020 followed by $62K the next month.

Yeah, looks like the initial six figure sale wasn’t paid for or the bids got retracted. Same general story regardless.

[GOATcards]

The real question is, what price growth are PSA 10 87F Stickers going to see? Overall a great-looking card from early in MJ's career and very low pop-report figures for 10s (as in a couple dozen). Now that's a grail right there.

[sebreg]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

As my analysis made clear, I'm not disagreeing that the #101 will experience higher average returns than #57 over the long run. My analysis also says that even assuming a $6K price floor and merely rising along with the Dow, in 50 years we'll see an expected 32x of the Dow (assuming 7% growth). 32 x $6K is nearly $200K, close to 10x the recent Feb 2021 peak. Sounds entirely plausible to me, and again that's a modest projection. (It likely means even more impressive returns on the #101. What's 32 times 2 times a short-term floor for 8s of $30K? Around $2M? Okay, sounds believable. That's 10 times the expected 50-year price for a #57 compared to a 5x-ish ratio right now.)

I'm kind of there with you. The 57 isn't my fav but even so in long run at right buy-in price it's still the face of the hobby and pretty safe long term. MJ is the basketball Mantle except with a better resumé and majority goat. People who never saw him play still buying Mantle at massive premiums. Same deal with MJ, so long as physical cards don't die he'll be collected strongly in future by those who never saw him play. His legend will only grow.

I prefer the Star 101 for relative potential upside, plus I'm one of those people who just has preference for "true" rookie hence my bias. Pop, 1st year pro card, etc, I like those aspects of the Star. But I doubt it ever displaces the Fleer as the face of the hobby, that card is entrenched and has extreme mainstream appeal.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by sebreg

I prefer the Star 101 for relative potential upside, plus I'm one of those people who just has preference for "true" rookie hence my bias. Pop, 1st year pro card, etc, I like those aspects of the Star. But I doubt it ever displaces the Fleer as the face of the hobby, that card is entrenched and has extreme mainstream appeal.

Realistic projections are that there will be a whole lotta filthy rich people in 50 years, so putting down $200K for a PSA 8 #57 won't be such a big deal. $2M for an 8 of the #101 (I'm guessing PSA will cave and be grading them by then lol) will probably still be a bit of a big deal. It's not like their supply is as limited as for a T206 Wagner or Ruth RC (since the OP of this little sub-thread was going on about the supposedly massive supply of #57s...).

What's 32x times 32x? Yep, the Dow in 50 years will be around 1M, give or take short-term fluctuations. (S&P returns will be even bigger.) Prices these days will look like a steal. Didn't that NM-MT Wagner go for $1K in '73? It's ~10,000x since then.

[Brent72]

Originally Posted by GatorPie

Nope, missed the boat. When the BGS 9 gets under 10K (and it will within six months), I may have to start considering it. Need one for the PC.

No chance in hell a BGS 9 gets anywhere near $10k. You are absolutely delusional.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by Brent72

No chance in hell a BGS 9 gets anywhere near $10k. You are absolutely delusional.

If PSA 8s have a $6K floor, then PSA 9s have around an $18K floor, which may well mean BGS 9s have a $10K floor. $18K for PSA 9s is around 50% of what they are hitting now, and still 3x what they were a year ago.

[GatorPie]

Originally Posted by Brent72

No chance in hell a BGS 9 gets anywhere near $10k. You are absolutely delusional.

Here’s a guy that has a BGS 9, hehe.

If I had told you a year ago that BGS 9’s would hit 30 or 40K, you would have told me I was absolutely delusional.

[interestingcool]

Originally Posted by GatorPie

Here’s a guy that has a BGS 9, hehe.

If I had told you a year ago that BGS 9’s would hit 30 or 40K, you would have told me I was absolutely delusional.

I agree with Brent.

Gator, you kind of come off as having a heaping helping of sour grapes, if I'm being honest. And you peak of the future with such absolute certainty. Do you own a crystal ball?

[GatorPie]

Don’t have sour grapes. If I never acquire the 57 so be it.

The card went ballistic over a year. Even the BGS 9 falling to 10K is still significantly higher than it was before. Honestly, why does that seem so far fetched to you guys? The floor of a card rising 500% in a year makes me "delusional"?

If I’m wrong so be it, I’ll take the abuse. But I stand by what I said - you’ll be able to get a BGS 9 57 for under 10K within six months. COVID is over. The stimulus payments are over. "The Last Dance" boost is over. It's time to return to reality.

[kefskala]

Originally Posted by GatorPie

Don’t have sour grapes. If I never acquire the 57 so be it.

The card went ballistic over a year. Even the BGS 9 falling to 10K is still significantly higher than it was before. Honestly, why does that seem so far fetched to you guys? The floor of a card rising 500% in a year makes me "delusional"?

If I’m wrong so be it, I’ll take the abuse. But I stand by what I said - you’ll be able to get a BGS 9 57 for under 10K within six months. COVID is over. The stimulus payments are over. "The Last Dance" boost is over. It's time to return to reality.

we can all make predictions, not as if you will get fired or fined if you are wrong. as long as the psa 10 stays above 400k for the next ten sales I think #57 will be fine...new bases are being built everyday....