**The Perennial JUAN SOTO Thread!**

[JRX]

Originally Posted by LVDan

I think the multiple team thing plays a larger role than people realize. The extreme upper tier of hobby good players is mostly made up of players who remain with one team the majority of their career. Team collectors are the most loyal, persistent collectors in the hobby by far. Long standing collections rooted in genuine team based nostalgia will always be the most resilient cards monetarily and the toughest to acquire.
A much higher percentage of player collections of vagabonds like Juan are accumulated with a financial eye to the future IMO vs that true”you’ll have to pry it from my cold, dead hands” passionate collectors of long tenured team favorites.
These are factors that must be handicapped when considering future effect on prices.
While not impossible, it certainly will take consistent excellence to maintain pricing, much less to see them appreciate considerably.

Fair point, if you're a Mets fan do you really want your Soto collection to be him in a Nationals uni? The Padres and Yankees cards will just be oddities.

[livfreely]

Originally Posted by cardozo

His prices really don’t say “best deal”.

If I can snap up a black foil for under $75 that’s a good deal to me with a player of his potential.

Golds are relatively cheap as well.


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[JRX]

Originally Posted by livfreely

If I can snap up a black foil for under $75 that’s a good deal to me with a player of his potential.

Golds are relatively cheap as well.


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What potential? Isn't he already priced as a 1st ballot hof?

[livfreely]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

I like Soto, but I worry that he’s going to be the Frank Robinson of this generation.

He may end up with more stats, accomplishments and hardware than others - but his market may be limited due to other factors. He has already moved around a lot, he has a chip on his shoulder/swagger, etc

Not saying I’m right or that view would be correct for everyone’s view, but I worry that it may happen.

The tough thing to remember is he is only 26 years old. 26!!!

He has one more season and THEN he starts his “peak” years of 28-33. That is when he climbs in this hobby, and towards the end of his 33 year old season (6 years from now!) he will be a superstar


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[JRX]

Originally Posted by livfreely

The tough thing to remember is he is only 26 years old. 26!!!

He has one more season and THEN he starts his “peak” years of 28-33. That is when he climbs in this hobby, and towards the end of his 33 year old season (6 years from now!) he will be a superstar


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That's just going off the old rule of thumb, truth is we have no idea how he will age. Plenty of guys flamed out by 30. I don't think he will given his batter eye, but you have no idea when the drop off will occur or if he's already had his career year.

[livfreely]

Originally Posted by JRX

That's just going off the old rule of thumb, truth is we have no idea how he will age. Plenty of guys flamed out by 30. I don't think he will given his batter eye, but you have no idea when the drop off will occur or if he's already had his career year.

As I stated, IMHO, he is the best “deal” right now. You are correct, only time will tell.

Shohei is arguably the greatest in this sport today, and his thread has 29k + replies.

Juan has 34k +. He’s not going anywhere for awhile.

I was NOT a big collector of his due to his attitude, and I am hoping wisdom will start to trickle into his brain and he becomes a leader.


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[redauto5]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

I like Soto, but I worry that he’s going to be the Frank Robinson of this generation.

He may end up with more stats, accomplishments and hardware than others - but his market may be limited due to other factors. He has already moved around a lot, he has a chip on his shoulder/swagger, etc

Not saying I’m right or that view would be correct for everyone’s view, but I worry that it may happen.

Juan is tied for 30th in fWAR so far this season at 2.4. Defense is killing him, subtracting over 1 full WAR in half a season. That's the difference between a 5 WAR season, All Star level but not spectacular and a 7.5 WAR season, borderline MVP type stuff in a weak MVP year. Over the rest of his career, the DH tag will have similar detriments and could cost him 25 WAR or more. Ouch. All Juan's early 20's WAR goodness would evaporate in that scenario and he ends up a low end to middling HOFer vs an inner Hall guy.

Juan needs to do all he can to get back to a close to average fielder for his legacy to meet his contract.

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[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by JRX

Fair point, if you're a Mets fan do you really want your Soto collection to be him in a Nationals uni? The Padres and Yankees cards will just be oddities.

Doesn't bother me at all.

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[boxbuster7]

I don't think it really matters

some players transcend the team their rookies are in like lebron for example

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by JRX

What potential? Isn't he already priced as a 1st ballot hof?

Compared to Shohei and Judge his stuff is still cheap(ish)

Last comp on a PSA 10 bowman 1st auto for Soto is $2300, Aaron Judge BCA PSA 10 last sold for $4650

And then shohei... lol

Either way his prices could definitely move up but he would need to start stacking MVPs and stats the way those guys have

Thankfully he is a few years younger than those guys so maybe if they start to fall off even slightly in the next couple years he could see some rise

[JRX]

Originally Posted by kipgen

Compared to Shohei and Judge his stuff is still cheap(ish)

Last comp on a PSA 10 bowman 1st auto for Soto is $2300, Aaron Judge BCA PSA 10 last sold for $4650

And then shohei... lol

Either way his prices could definitely move up but he would need to start stacking MVPs and stats the way those guys have

Thankfully he is a few years younger than those guys so maybe if they start to fall off even slightly in the next couple years he could see some rise

For Soto to reach Judge levels he has to go for triple crown, hit 62, oh and have some of the greatest seasons in the history of the sport. He will never reach Ohtani levels. There's not a whole separate country of 100m people that are Soto fans.

[Rickey Vaughn]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

As someone who has a large Soto collection I would be super happy if he took off hobby wise. I think Soto will have a HOF career. I think he is a top 5 bat in the league. I just don't see a way his demand increases significantly currently. Now if he goes on to have multiple 50 HR seasons or the Mets win Multiple WS, then for sure his cards will go up in value.

Big hits in memorable games, basically if he does what he did in his WS year of work once more….then win another ring late in his career (3x champ), I think he can be a memorable collected great baseball player in hobby terms. Otherwise I think you may be right at least 70%. It’s all on him, the team/org and fate.


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[JRX]

Originally Posted by Rickey Vaughn

Big hits in memorable games, basically if he does what he did in his WS year of work once more….then win another ring late in his career (3x champ), I think he can be a memorable collected great baseball player in hobby terms. Otherwise I think you may be right at least 70%. It’s all on him, the team/org and fate.


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Given the randomness of the playoffs and the likelihood that they expand it further, counting on memorable home runs in the world series might be asking a bit much.

[towerymt]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

Incredible. Gatorade is still my favorite card of the 21st century

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GATORADE!

[ThoseBackPages]

BOOM!!

[hermanotarjeta]

Juan solo quietly with #21!

[Wrightfan85]

He better make it as a reserve.

[kltomek]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Juan solo quietly with #21!

Thankfully that was a 2 run shot too


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[al3xmac10]

#21

[ThoseBackPages]

SIICK!

[Rabs]

Originally Posted by kltomek

Thankfully that was a 2 run shot too


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Nuan Solo.

[pinnacle06]

Originally Posted by Wrightfan85

He better make it as a reserve.

His OPS is over 900…. He’s making it

[Snakeonia]

Originally Posted by Wrightfan85

He better make it as a reserve.

Selling?


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[JohnnyHatesJazz]

Originally Posted by pinnacle06

His OPS is over 900…. He’s making it

SNUBBED!!!

[NYRE2PECT]

Does Juan look like he is having any fun?

He kind of looks bored or disinterested.

I can't tell....curious for those that have watched him longer/closer.