First Buzz: 2021 Topps Series 1 baseball cards + SPs

[mikejones]

Originally Posted by mcwildcats

I'd add at least Bohm...

Ah, forgot about that guy. The first few 10s will probably get up to $100 imo. My guess is that they'll settle down around $40-$60 once more are graded.

[gmoney328]

Originally Posted by joe73

Mountcastle? Not exactly a phenom.

Obviously limited sample size, but the dude is 23 and did quite well for himself last season.

.333 with an .878 OPS. Not too shabby.

[joe73]

Originally Posted by gmoney328

Obviously limited sample size, but the dude is 23 and did quite well for himself last season.

.333 with an .878 OPS. Not too shabby.

Right, 2020 was a very small sample size. Turns 24 in two weeks.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by mnvikingstwins

Which rookies are we expecting to be $50+ as psa 10s?

My guess is Adell and Bohm. The 2nd tier in that $30-$40 range and the third teir in the $20-$30 range. That encompasses like 10 guys though.

[Trueblue]

I wouldn't underestimate the fan base in atlanta to support Pache prices

[anusinha]

Adell, Bohm, Pache, Bart should all be 50+ in PSA 10

And there is probably 5 other guys that are 40-50 and could get to 50+ with a decent spring.

[cj828282]

But are the rookies any better than what we had last year? Does not justify the massive price hike in this baseline product.

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by cj828282

But are the rookies any better than what we had last year? Does not justify the massive price hike in this baseline product.

No. I’d put Alvarez, Bichette, Randy, Robert along with Luzardo May and Gallen etc a cut above this years class(so far)
The massive backlog and price increase for grading won’t help those ripping/grading either. The only saving grace would be a continued increase in the market well into the season. We shall see.


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[anusinha]

Originally Posted by cj828282

But are the rookies any better than what we had last year? Does not justify the massive price hike in this baseline product.

Not necessarily better, but the baseline for prices is higher.

from 2020 you have PSA 10 prices of:

Bichette: 100
Yordan: 60
Arozarena s1: 100 (low pop)
Lux: 40-50
Lewis: 75

Robert: 120


So the bar to get to 50 in PSA 10 is a bit lower than it has been in the past, which "justifies" a higher retail price point for the wax. Fortunately, retail product is more or less the same as hobby, at a much more respectable price point.

[gmoney328]

Originally Posted by cj828282

But are the rookies any better than what we had last year? Does not justify the massive price hike in this baseline product.

In my opinion, no. Not yet at least. Such is the game now though. Prices to the MOON.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by cj828282

But are the rookies any better than what we had last year? Does not justify the massive price hike in this baseline product.

No. It's the quantity of quality guys that makes this a good class. Comparing at release (2020 for last year's guys, 2021 for this year's);

1. Yordan
2. Bobichette

3. Adell
4. Bohm

5.Lux
6.Bart
7.Pache
8.Carlson

Then in the next tier you had some pitchers in 2020, headed by May and Luzardo with Gallen and McKay adding support. This year you've got Mize and Anderson with Pearson and maybe McKenzie adding support. What you didn't have a bunch of third tier hitters the caliber of Mountcastle, Madrigal, Giminez, and Garcia. I'd take all four of those ahead of Lewis and Grisham on release day.

Which goes to the point. Kyle Lewis was not some superstar at release. He just happened to have a good 3/8 of a year and his prices skyrocketed. Keep in mind Aaron Judge was an afterthought in 2017 before he blew up! There a simply so many guys in 2020, somebody is going to have a big year even if they aren't considered studs at release.

Originally Posted by anusinha

Not necessarily better, but the baseline for prices is higher.

from 2020 you have PSA 10 prices of:

Bichette: 100
Yordan: 60
Arozarena s1: 100 (low pop)
Lux: 40-50
Lewis: 75

Robert: 120


So the bar to get to 50 in PSA 10 is a bit lower than it has been in the past, which "justifies" a higher retail price point for the wax. Fortunately, retail product is more or less the same as hobby, at a much more respectable price point.

Exactly. There is no Bobichette or Yordan, but there are 5 guys in the ballpark of Lux, then another ~7 or so that are probably worth sending in a bulk submission...plus Kiriloff and Hayes coming in S2.

[Middies31985]

This is going to be a strong class throughout 2021 but imagine 2021 Update if Wander, Adley, and Kelenic are in that product... To the moon!

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[clocsta2323]

Originally Posted by Middies31985

This is going to be a strong class throughout 2021 but imagine 2021 Update if Wander, Adley, and Kelenic are in that product... To the moon!

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I think Vaughn gets called up early too.

[Gurds]

Checklist is out

https://www.topps.com/checklists

[theshowandme]

Here is what I got for Rookies

Albert Abreu
Jo Adell
Eddy Alvarez
Ian Anderson
Joey Bart
Brandon Bielak
Alec Bohm
Kris Bubic
Beau Burrows
Dylan Carlson
Ryan Castellani
Bobby Dalbec
Dane Dunning
Santiago Espinal
Deivi Garcia
Luis Garcia
Andres Gimenez
Monte Harrison
Nick Heath
Cody Heur
Spencer Howard
Cristian Javier
Daniel Johnson
James Kaprielian
Nick Madrigal
Triston McKenzie
Humberto Mejia
Casey Mize
Ryan Mountcastle
Nick Neidert
Edward Olivares
Cristian Pache
Isaac Paredes
Luis Patino
Nate Pearson
David Peterson
Keibert Ruiz
Sixto Sanchez
Jesus Sanchez
Brady Singer
Tarik Skubal
Tyler Stephenson
Leody Taveras
Blake Taylor
Anderson Tejeda
Chadwick Tromp
Daulton Varsho
Mitch White
Evan White
Kodi Whitley

[roush16racing]

Damn, that's a strong list.

[BigTrain72]

Maybe I am missing something off this checklist but the rookies seem pretty weak. Your best players are Bohm and Carlson? Obviously it's going to change but which players on this list are going to be approaching Soto, Acuna, Tatis, Jimenez, Bichette, and Robert? I bought 2 hobby boxes but am going to hold for the long term.

[Cleghorn]

Was hoping to see Ke'Bryan Hayes on that list. There will be some surprises on that list. Not sure who but seems like every year some of these not so hyped rookies become the key players of the set.

[EricFozz]

Can I ask - who does this leave for Series 2?

Kiriloff comes to mind, and probably not Wander. Others?

[jcfill]

Originally Posted by BigTrain72

Maybe I am missing something off this checklist but the rookies seem pretty weak. Your best players are Bohm and Carlson? Obviously it's going to change but which players on this list are going to be approaching Soto, Acuna, Tatis, Jimenez, Bichette, and Robert? I bought 2 hobby boxes but am going to hold for the long term.

I mean Adell, Bart, and Pache are/were all top 10 prospects in baseball at some point last year.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by BigTrain72

Maybe I am missing something off this checklist but the rookies seem pretty weak. Your best players are Bohm and Carlson? Obviously it's going to change but which players on this list are going to be approaching Soto, Acuna, Tatis, Jimenez, Bichette, and Robert? I bought 2 hobby boxes but am going to hold for the long term.

You aren't missing anything. Its a solid mid-tier group of rookies. But I don't think you have any elite rookies in this. I think part of why this is hyped so much is the amount of rookies as well as the height the hobby is at right now. It SHOULD show everyone just how awesome last years Series 1 is, as this one will have lower tier rookies with a much higher print run.

The good news is that with this quantity of rookies, you don't necessarily have to have the same quality. You will have several guys see hobby spikes before they fade into the category of "regular players".

[roush16racing]

Adell, Bart, Pache, Carlson, Bohm, Mize, Pearson, based on hype alone. Madrigal and Mountcastle are good hitters, David Peterson turned in good starts.Not saying they'll have off the scale value, but the potential is there.

[letsgocapitals]

Series 1 is a depth RC checklist.

[xTri]

Printing Error - https://twitter.com/Topps/status/1356261189483962375

So the 1/1 and the /70 are probably the same exact card.

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by EricFozz

Can I ask - who does this leave for Series 2?

Kiriloff comes to mind, and probably not Wander. Others?

Hayes, Cronenworth, Crochet, hopefully Wander/Gore break camp with the club and make it in time.