The Official Options Thread

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Added some TSLL here - 2k @ $7.00

TSLL is a very long term position

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

Only saw it dip to $8.38, should have grabbed it there but wasn't really tracking an entry at that time when it did. was looking for it to push down again, but never did. Have alerts set either way.

TSLL back up to 15

Next target for TSLA 405

[Josh611]

Originally Posted by Blazed

TSLL back up to 15

Next target for TSLA 405

Levered ETFs are typically terrible long term holds because of time decay.

You’re much more knowledgeable with options than I am, so would love to hear your thought process behind that. Genuinely curious. I guess it could work if the volatility is removed from TSLA, and it grinds higher slowly, but that stock has never done that.

I own Tesla, just not the levered ETF

[ajlaxmn]

Entered one leap for FTNT after it dropped as I had $70 as a S/R, looking to $90 for profit, $12 premium, held for past month, out today for $17 premium, want to possibly look at SPY 650 C if it pushes back down before FOMC, if not, I’ll look for a different entry.

$500 profit on this little hold.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Josh611

Levered ETFs are typically terrible long term holds because of time decay.

You’re much more knowledgeable with options than I am, so would love to hear your thought process behind that. Genuinely curious. I guess it could work if the volatility is removed from TSLA, and it grinds higher slowly, but that stock has never done that.

I own Tesla, just not the levered ETF

True, for most but I've had great success with TSLL in the past

But as you mentioned I'm counting on a run up as technical indicators suggest an upward trend > 405 > 420 (could get derailed with bad news)

TSLA has large swings (up/down) TSLA up $31 today > TSLL faster recovery from down days

From my entry point back in April, I'm already back to where I was as far as gains after the big June drop

Picked up the shares at $7 > they peaked at $16.35 > currently @ $15.15 AH

I already hold a sizeable position in TSLA stock so made sense to add TSLL on the April dip @ $7 vs. $210ish TSLA

Side note* TSLL is the only leveraged ETF I'd ever own. Other leveraged move too slow and that leads to decay, those are the ones you'd want to be in and out on pops

[Blazed]

Consumer sentiment @ 10

SPX: 6590 is key level / need to hold above 6550 to get > 6600 hold 6600 > 6644 is next target

Downside 6575 > 6550 > 6520

Futures were weak this morning, might carry over to intraday

FNMA looks like it wants 16 today

Should be an easy Friday

[Blazed]

Trading is easy when you have a plan and don't just blindly buy dips and you know know where the solid support/resistance areas are

Originally Posted by Blazed

SPX: 6590 is key level / need to hold above 6550 to get > 6600 hold 6600 > 6644 is next target

Downside 6575 > 6550 > 6520

SPX: 6590 is key level - SPX struggling to break and hold key level all day

Originally Posted by Blazed

Picked up the shares at $7 > they peaked at $16.35 > currently @ $15.15 AH

Full recovery on TSLL. This is why I like TSLL on TSLA dips - 405 > 420 next

[Blazed]

Retail sales Tuesday and FOMC Weds this week

Rate cuts are expected

And if you check SPX flow from Friday @ close it's ready to rip up, now it's just a waiting for it to release, FOMC is the catalyst if Fed cuts

If the market does rip I'll look at selling CC's/possible equity trim on some stuff I picked up off the clearance rack back in April

Should be a great week

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Added some TSLL here - 2k @ $7.00

Originally Posted by Blazed

TSLL back up to 15

Next target for TSLA 405

Originally Posted by Blazed

Full recovery on TSLL. This is why I like TSLL on TSLA dips - 405 > 420 next

Next target for TSLA 405 > 420✅- Targets hit, next up > 435.89 > break 435.8 > then 452.8

[Blazed]

Tomorrow is the big day

FOMC rate decision

Just watching today for any front running of the move that should happen tomorrow

[ajlaxmn]

SPY 560 C, 10/5 expiry had biggest premiums today at $73.3M.

Worth noting, SPY 600 P, 10/3 expiry had -60.8M premium.

[Blazed]

Double post

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

SPY 560 C, 10/5 expiry had biggest premiums today at $73.3M.

Worth noting, SPY 600 P, 10/3 expiry had -60.8M premium.

Most likely a hedge because we all know Powell

If he's stubborn and holds rates tomorrow those puts might end up ITM (not in one day) lol

If he cuts, after the initial pop, should start to see a melt up going into Oct

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Most likely a hedge because we all know Powell

If he's stubborn and holds rates tomorrow those puts might end up ITM (not in one day) lol

If he cuts, after the initial pop, should start to see a melt up going into Oct

Got $300 I DO NOT CARE IF I LOSE. Right before decision I'm thinking of some 0DTE OTM Calls. Strike would possibly be based on where the Gamma levels are for today's expiry going into the decision.

AGAIN, DO NOT CARE IF I LOSE THE $300. ABSOLUTE DEFINITION OF GAMBLING.


Still holding SPY Leap, probably will hold if rates are paused, as I think market will still expect cuts and dips will be bought back up. If we cut, I will probably still hold into October (strategy might change if the initial pop is significant).

[carlo16]

What are the options telling us guys??

I have a feeling Powells words are gonna dictate things much more than the cut.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

Got $300 I DO NOT CARE IF I LOSE. Right before decision I'm thinking of some 0DTE OTM Calls. Strike would possibly be based on where the Gamma levels are for today's expiry going into the decision.

AGAIN, DO NOT CARE IF I LOSE THE $300. ABSOLUTE DEFINITION OF GAMBLING.


Still holding SPY Leap, probably will hold if rates are paused, as I think market will still expect cuts and dips will be bought back up. If we cut, I will probably still hold into October (strategy might change if the initial pop is significant).

Either way the market will do zoomies

Calls are a good bet

Watch 0dte though and don't get stuck with them ITM

[Blazed]

It’s FOMC day

Nothing else matters besides 2 pm and whatever Powell has to say right after during the press conference.

Yesterday’s flow was another round of positive flow into Mag7 names, so I’d expect to see some quick upside today at some point even if it subsides

SPX 6600 key (6590 support) / 6550 bottom / 6700 top (6650 resistance)

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by carlo16

What are the options telling us guys??

I have a feeling Powells words are gonna dictate things much more than the cut.

On data days watch flow not options or volume

Based off flow yesterday, looks like market wants up

So I'll be watching flow today leading up to the decision and after

Powell's words will matter today (lol)

[Blazed]

Powell in 10

Reaction to rate cuts was as expected

See what Powell says now

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

It’s FOMC day

Nothing else matters besides 2 pm and whatever Powell has to say right after during the press conference.

Yesterday’s flow was another round of positive flow into Mag7 names, so I’d expect to see some quick upside today at some point even if it subsides

SPX 6600 key (6590 support) / 6550 bottom / 6700 top (6650 resistance)

SPX 6550 bottom✅- bounced as expected great call entry for 50 points

[ajlaxmn]

took a small $100 loss on the 559 C I took. took right before rate decision, was hoping for more of a push up, held, didn't push high, held through Powell (was also at kids Dr appointment), cut around 3:30.

No real plan for this, so no big deal, was just hoping (not investment strategy) of a higher push to 663-665. No worries. Still holding Call leap, especially with reference of 50 point cut prior to end of year.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

took a small $100 loss on the 559 C I took. took right before rate decision, was hoping for more of a push up, held, didn't push high, held through Powell (was also at kids Dr appointment), cut around 3:30.

No real plan for this, so no big deal, was just hoping (not investment strategy) of a higher push to 663-665. No worries. Still holding Call leap, especially with reference of 50 point cut prior to end of year.

Good trade, right call just a little early on entry

Call leap will do well over the next 2 months

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Retail sales Tuesday and FOMC Weds this week

Rate cuts are expected

And if you check SPX flow from Friday @ close it's ready to rip up, now it's just a waiting for it to release, FOMC is the catalyst if Fed cuts

If the market does rip I'll look at selling CC's/possible equity trim on some stuff I picked up off the clearance rack back in April

Should be a great week

Originally Posted by Blazed

Either way the market will do zoomies

Calls are a good bet

Watch 0dte though and don't get stuck with them ITM

Originally Posted by Blazed

It’s FOMC day

Nothing else matters besides 2 pm and whatever Powell has to say right after during the press conference.

Yesterday’s flow was another round of positive flow into Mag7 names, so I’d expect to see some quick upside today at some point even if it subsides

SPX 6600 key (6590 support) / 6550 bottom / 6700 top (6650 resistance)

Just watching today

Will trim some calls from yesterday @ open

Remaining calls will be free plays and ill hold going into Dec

[Blazed]

OPEX tomorrow

SPX is struggling @ 6650, a close above 6650 today implies a test of 6700

6700 is next call trim

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

OPEX tomorrow

SPX is struggling @ 6650, a close above 6650 today implies a test of 6700

6700 is next call trim

Triple witching day

Tested 6650 yesterday but didn’t close above, so I’m not giving the edge to a 6700 test anymore

SPX: 6640 key level & 6600 is also a key level / 6700 top (6706) / 6575 bottom (6590 support)

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

OPEX tomorrow

SPX is struggling @ 6650, a close above 6650 today implies a test of 6700

6700 is next call trim

Originally Posted by Blazed

Triple witching day

Tested 6650 yesterday but didn’t close above, so I’m not giving the edge to a 6700 test anymore

SPX: 6640 key level & 6600 is also a key level / 6700 top (6706) / 6575 bottom (6590 support)

As expected didn't test 6700, maybe next week