Spectra FOTL 6/24

[dcarado]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

No clue. It gets talked about every year but who really knows.

Chromium Fatigue? The 130 Point Stock? The time of year it's released?

What makes Spectra stand out? What is the chase? It has everything these other products have. Is 130 Point Stock a good enough chase? Apparently not.

I thought the Nebula parallel would have been a fine chase, but now you can snag it in other configurations. It's just this odd product that doesn't really have a footing in the hobby yet. Will this year be the year? I suspect not.

Yeah, the 130 stock and the format may be the killers. If it's ever going to take off, this has to be the year. All the ingredients are there, but I think it comes down to how watered-down it ends up being.

Some of the number crunchers can probably come up with the ratios, but I imagine the number of Zion/Ja/Lebron/Giannis/Luka/Curry parallels and autos is fairly high. Add in the color blasts, the "good" rookie /10 or better stuff, and some of the nicer inserts like the NBA champs signatures, and you've got a pretty large number of high-$ cards. It'll just come down to whether we see 1-3 of those per case or something closer to 6-8.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

No clue. It gets talked about every year but who really knows.

Chromium Fatigue? The 130 Point Stock? The time of year it's released?

What makes Spectra stand out? What is the chase? It has everything these other products have. Is 130 Point Stock a good enough chase? Apparently not.

I thought the Nebula parallel would have been a fine chase, but now you can snag it in other configurations. It's just this odd product that doesn't really have a footing in the hobby yet. Will this year be the year? I suspect not.

This year is unlike any other year for Spectra. For me, this is the best the cards have ever looked and I don't think it's even close. Vertical RPA with a bigger patch window, only 42 RPA, color blast, logomen. This is one product that I would have been happy sitting on $20-$30k of. I thought all the way back in March that with the bonus FOTL cards Mosaic and Spectra were the 2 best sleeper basketball products. Unfortunately Covid hit and everything went sky high.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by dcarado

Yeah, the 130 stock and the format may be the killers. If it's ever going to take off, this has to be the year. All the ingredients are there, but I think it comes down to how watered-down it ends up being.

Some of the number crunchers can probably come up with the ratios, but I imagine the number of Zion/Ja/Lebron/Giannis/Luka/Curry parallels and autos is fairly high. Add in the color blasts, the "good" rookie /10 or better stuff, and some of the nicer inserts like the NBA champs signatures, and you've got a pretty large number of high-$ cards. It'll just come down to whether we see 1-3 of those per case or something closer to 6-8.

The ratios are interesting.

2 Lebron base and 1 variation. So while the checklist IS bigger (100 to 200 if you include variations) there are 3 Lebrons to 1. Better shot at hitting him this year, though I can also argue this waters down the value as now there are 3 Lebron Base Golds (30 in total) vs 10 last year.

The autos are worse off which doesn't bode well for Zion chasers. Zion has 60 base RPAs and Ja has 99. Last year Luka/Trae and the like had 299 base RPAs. Couple that with the fact that most every other base RPA is /149, and the odds are longer.

There are 39,400 total parallels in the base set. At 4 parallels a box, you're looked at 9,850 boxes or roughly 1230 cases.

If the Color Blasts are case hits, you're looking at roughly 50 per player. If they fall every other case, then 25 per player, and so on.

Hopefully they're every 10 cases and you get roughly 10 a piece. This would be awesome but we won't know until the product is busted en masse, which may not happen.

[Eaglesfan371]

I got 8 boxes for an all-in cost, after CC cashback, of $850/box. Was going to buy another 4 boxes at the drop below $800 but more than content with my haul.

Happy to make a quick $K or two.

[mrdallas]

I think this years Spectra look great (from Panini's site, which are going to make them look spectacular anyway). But until I see actual breaks I will reserve judgement. Again though, based on what I see they look awesome compared to years past.

Now with that being said- as many products as there are in 2019-20 at some point fatigue has to set in... No? IDK, i like to bust most products I buy and couldn't swallow spending 800+ for a box of Spectra FOTL. I wouldn't even consider buying a box in the secondary market cause there is 0% chance in mind it is worth close to that at this point. Even in the future. Outside of Zion, Ja or a low numbered LBJ in most products these days you are taking it in the shorts.

The upside on a box where you spend 1K or more is just not there IMHO. Mosaic, which people are still trying to tout as the next great thing is coming down significantly in price. People are starting to realize, it is another mid tiered product (Priced like a high end), with nothing on Optic or Prizm.

These are the latest release so people will jump on it right now, but a vertical RPA does not make the product a can't miss. By my estimation there are still 40 RPA "Misses" compared to 2 real hits that can make your money back. Not great odds for upwards of $1,100. Just my take.

For those that do decide to bust, good luck, Hope you hit a MONSTA!!

[ConcordXI]

Double.

[ninjacookies]

I'll go out on an irrelevant limb and say these settle between 1100 and 1300 in the secondary market in 2-3 months.

[ConcordXI]

The FOTL /39 or /3 are listed as Rookie JERSEY Autos, NOT RPAs.

Did anyone else notice this or is different information posted different places on those?

[jkl165116]

Originally Posted by ConcordXI

The FOTL /39 or /3 are listed as Rookie JERSEY Autos, NOT RPAs.

Did anyone else notice this or is different information posted different places on those?

I noticed that and spectra always had rja vs rpa for their lower numbers.

Would have still bought but forgot about this

[KOs Cardroom]

if you look at the pics panini released, there are for sure patches on the ssp's

[daviswr7]

The breaks will tell all very shortly. And it seems like we will have some to watch very shortly

[jkl165116]

Originally Posted by KOs Cardroom

if you look at the pics panini released, there are for sure patches on the ssp's

Probably for green gold and black but anything else may be a jersey.

[bigjbasketball]

I think there are a couple things that this year’s Spectra has over previous years. The big one being that it’s a 4-pack box with 4 cards and one auto per pack, instead of a one-pack box, so you’re getting a better chance at base and parallel rookies. The color blast inserts will help as well, those were really popular with the Prizm Draft set and these in NBA uniforms should be even more sought after. I haven’t seen that checklist yet but I’m sure it will include all the big names. Oh, and Zion.

[mossoholic]

Blowout offer up to $700 on 2018-19. Jeez, I wish I woulda got more 2019-20 Spectra today!

[dcarado]

Originally Posted by daviswr7

The breaks will tell all very shortly. And it seems like we will have some to watch very shortly

Mine should be here Friday morning and unless BO offers like $1200, I won't have the self-control not to rip.

[Cheken]

crazy I got shipment confirmation already on the order..

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by bigjbasketball

I think there are a couple things that this year’s Spectra has over previous years. The big one being that it’s a 4-pack box with 4 cards and one auto per pack, instead of a one-pack box, so you’re getting a better chance at base and parallel rookies. The color blast inserts will help as well, those were really popular with the Prizm Draft set and these in NBA uniforms should be even more sought after. I haven’t seen that checklist yet but I’m sure it will include all the big names. Oh, and Zion.

The boxes are essentially the same.

You get 4 parallels per box instead of 2 per box.
You get 4 autos just like last year.
You get 8 base instead of 1.
Your memorabilia card from last year will be replaced by base cards.

I’d say it’s more valuable with double the parallels and more base cards, but that checklist is also bigger so how much value remains to be seen.

[messier2]

Who here is breaking? Who here is holding? Who here is selling?

[bigjbasketball]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

The boxes are essentially the same.

You get 4 parallels per box instead of 2 per box.
You get 4 autos just like last year.
You get 8 base instead of 1.
Your memorabilia card from last year will be replaced by base cards.

I’d say it’s more valuable with double the parallels and more base cards, but that checklist is also bigger so how much value remains to be seen.

Good point, I didn’t even to look at the checklist. Looks like 175 this year vs. 100 last year. Still, I’ll take 7 additional base and 2 additional parallels over 1 relic that is usually crap 99% of the time. I’m definitely going to bust the non-FOTL box that should be shipping next week, and I’m looking forward to seeing some of these FOTL breaks!

[toughpull]

What did fotl settle at? $800?

[phil]

Originally Posted by toughpull

What did fotl settle at? $800?

Apparently. The listed price dropped to $762.50 for a few seconds but then apparently sold out from people already queued up at $800.

[rippev]

I’m planning on opening the box I got. Yolo

[Stats]

First year for Logoman autos, Color Blast Parallels, 4 pack format like Football, Zion, Ja - sounds like a good year for the product to right the ship.

[Spacemanspif]

I'll be on ebay scooping up singles from those of you trying to recoup some of your losses. Thanks!

[cboog3105]

Originally Posted by Stats

First year for Logoman autos

https://www.ebay.com/itm/133338272006

Is it?