@itsvegasdave “The Sports Card Market Will Collapse”

[LJCards]

one of the dumbest things to do right now is buying high end modern. Eventually this bubble will bust and it will be worthless. I am buying cheap vintage right now because of that.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by pewe

What is the purpose of guessing when the peak will occur???

To get anyone to take them seriously. The bubble is going to pop? Okay, when and how much more will it run before then? These clowns always love to chime in like they know everything, but they've been dead wrong the last few years, and especially the last 9 months or so. This has been an unbelievable run, and I've put my money where my mouth is. You know I am one of the biggest cheerleaders here

[LJCards]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

To get anyone to take them seriously. The bubble is going to pop? Okay, when and how much more will it run before then? These clowns always love to chime in like they know everything, but they've been dead wrong the last few years, and especially the last 9 months or so. This has been an unbelievable run, and I've put my money where my mouth is. You know I am one of the biggest cheerleaders here

Get that money in and then get it out quick enough before the bust. Its exactly like the housing market.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by LJCards

Get that money in and then get it out quick enough before the bust. Its exactly like the housing market.

when it is?

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by LJCards

Get that money in and then get it out quick enough before the bust. Its exactly like the housing market.

Next month? Next year? Five years?

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

The people I know that collect cards make over $100,000 a year and are having a blast with it without it affecting their finances. I know a lot of them.

This is far too generic a statement for it to have value.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

This is far too generic a statement for it to have value.

why is that?

[dbpsooner]

Originally Posted by pewe

You don’t make money by following conventional wisdom

On the other hand, it is sad there isn’t a mechanism to “short” a sports card, so you can see the real market sentiment. Would be fascinating if both sides could put $$$ where their mouth is.


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This is an extremely odd post. Why is it sad that people can’t short a sports card? You can either buy or not buy. Seems like two reasonable options to me. I don’t get the mentality of having to be able to bet against everything. If you think sports cards are a bad investment, don’t buy them. Seems pretty simple.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by LJCards

Get that money in and then get it out quick enough before the bust. Its exactly like the housing market.

Subprime lending = 2021 Baseball Card Market

You sure you know what the word "exactly" means?

[LJCards]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Subprime lending = 2021 Baseball Card Market

You sure you know what the word "exactly" means?

Think hyper inflation but with card.

Patrick Mahomes optic was selling for less than 20$ 3-4 years ago. Just sold one for 500$ in November.

Mike trout rookie 2011 bowman chrome purple, sold it for 35$ in 2014
now its a $1000 card.

The market wont keep up and it will fall. when that is we dont know, but when it happens its going to happen hard and fast.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by dbpsooner

This is an extremely odd post. Why is it sad that people can’t short a sports card? You can either buy or not buy. Seems like two reasonable options to me. I don’t get the mentality of having to be able to bet against everything. If you think sports cards are a bad investment, don’t buy them. Seems pretty simple.

Only reason I can imagine for not wanting shorts is if you are profiting from an irrational bubble.

Otherwise they tend to have many positive effects on the market, including forcing those folks who say there is a bubble to put their $$$ where their mouth is. And those who are pumping things to prove they aren’t just pumping and dumping.

And personally I certainly would have enjoyed making $$$ on some players I was sure were overpriced. And I was correct.


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[dbpsooner]

Originally Posted by pewe

Only reason I can imagine for not wanting shorts is if you are profiting from an irrational bubble.

Otherwise they tend to have many positive effects on the market, including forcing those folks who say there is a bubble to put their $$$ where their mouth is. And those who are pumping things to prove they aren’t just pumping and dumping.

And personally I certainly would have enjoyed making $$$ on some players I was sure were overpriced. And I was correct.


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How would it force anyone to do anything? People can think we are in a bubble but it certainly doesn’t force them to “put their money where their mouth is”. One of the things most of us love about sports cards is the correlation between a player’s success/career accomplishments and their card values. If you so desperately want to “short” a player, go bet against him via prop bets and team bets. Have we really lost sight completely of what makes sports cards so fun and valuable to people???

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by LJCards

Think hyper inflation but with card.

Patrick Mahomes optic was selling for less than 20$ 3-4 years ago. Just sold one for 500$ in November.

Mike trout rookie 2011 bowman chrome purple, sold it for 35$ in 2014
now its a $1000 card.

The market wont keep up and it will fall. when that is we dont know, but when it happens its going to happen hard and fast.

I’ll take all the 2017 Mahomes Optics that you want to sell me for $20. I’ll let that offer stand for the next five years, regardless of fair market values at the given time you choose to sell them to me for that price. Seriously. I’ll even take any 2011 Trout Purples for $35 you have laying around. Just hit me up when that crash happens and I’ll get you the money immediately.

[LJCards]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

I’ll take all the 2017 Mahomes Optics that you want to sell me for $20. I’ll let that offer stand for the next five years, regardless of fair market values at the given time you choose to sell them to me for that price. Seriously. I’ll even take any 2011 Trout Purples for $35 you have laying around. Just hit me up when that crash happens and I’ll get you the money immediately.

ha, i wish i had some to sell myself.

i think my ridiculousness meter is set off when you see active players with less than 1 year under their belt selling for more than all time hall of famers. Its stupid.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by dbpsooner

One of the things most of us love about sports cards is the correlation between a player’s success/career accomplishments and their card values.

It is because I am all in on your preference here that makes me like derivatives.

Derivatives tend to help make the market for an individual player more efficient, and reflect fundamentals like you (and I) prefer.


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[KhalDrogo]

Goldin is on IG right now saying that he has guys with 9+ figure bankrolls looking for cards. Last night did $33M. Biggest sports auction ever, and still has tonight to go. Today, privately sold two 86F PSA 10s for the same price as last night. Can't keep up with new accounts registering and requesting higher limits.

[dbpsooner]

Originally Posted by pewe

It is because I am all in on your preference here that makes me like derivatives.

Derivatives tend to help make the market for an individual player more efficient, and reflect fundamentals like you (and I) prefer.


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I am with you! But doesn’t Vegas already offer the derivatives we love in a way?

[LJCards]

Originally Posted by pewe

It is because I am all in on your preference here that makes me like derivatives.

Derivatives tend to help make the market for an individual player more efficient, and reflect fundamentals like you (and I) prefer.


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but you also that in the opposite. all-time players selling for literally nothing.

For example Rick Reuschel. Played for 20 years, one of the greatest pitchers not in the hall. Comparable to John Smoltz, Marachal, Carl Hubbell, 70 WAR, Top 50 pitcher of all time according to JAWS witha higher ranking than almost 2 dozen HOFers.

gets absolutely 0 hobby love and his cards are worthless.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by LJCards

ha, i wish i had some to sell myself.

i think my ridiculousness meter is set off when you see active players with less than 1 year under their belt selling for more than all time hall of famers. Its stupid.

I agree with you on that, but I feel Mahomes and Trout will survive any market crash/correction long term.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Goldin is on IG right now saying that he has guys with 9+ figure bankrolls looking for cards. Last night did $33M. Biggest sports auction ever, and still has tonight to go. Today, privately sold two 86F PSA 10s for the same price as last night. Can't keep up with new accounts registering and requesting higher limits.

500k accounts on Goldin

[LJCards]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

I agree with you on that, but I feel Mahomes and Trout will survive any market crash/correction long term.

to some degree they will, i think youll see their rookies settle down to about 100$, not $1000.

[LJCards]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Goldin is on IG right now saying that he has guys with 9+ figure bankrolls looking for cards. Last night did $33M. Biggest sports auction ever, and still has tonight to go. Today, privately sold two 86F PSA 10s for the same price as last night. Can't keep up with new accounts registering and requesting higher limits.

wasnt it an off centered jordan that blew up? it sold more than a psa 10

[pewe]

Originally Posted by LJCards

but you also that in the opposite. all-time players selling for literally nothing.

For example Rick Reuschel. Played for 20 years, one of the greatest pitchers not in the hall. Comparable to John Smoltz, Marachal, Carl Hubbell, 70 WAR, Top 50 pitcher of all time according to JAWS witha higher ranking than almost 2 dozen HOFers.

gets absolutely 0 hobby love and his cards are worthless.

Sounds like you’ve identified something I share your belief in: that fundamentals aren’t isolated to on-field performance.

Why am I more bullish on Tatis than Soto, even if I believe Soto’s career numbers might end up better??? I think Tatis could be more broadly popular and the face of the league.

After all, we are trying to estimate the individual demand of collectors, and the breadth of collectors who are currently, and in the future remain, interested enough to continue buying pieces of paper that represent this player and the zeitgeist they generate around themselves


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[pewe]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

500k accounts on Goldin

I never expected to get an account and buy something, and I can officially say I exceeded my personal expectations

With that said... they really really need to improve their game... their auction experience is a mess


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[LJCards]

Originally Posted by pewe

Sounds like you’ve identified something I share your belief in: that fundamentals aren’t isolated to on-field performance.

Why am I more bullish on Tatis than Soto, even if I believe Soto’s career numbers might end up better??? I think Tatis could be more broadly popular and the face of the league.

After all, we are trying to estimate the individual demand of collectors, and the breadth of collectors who are currently, and in the future remain, interested enough to continue buying pieces of paper that represent this player and the zeitgeist they generate around themselves


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Its all about that hype man!

so and so youtuber says invest in sos and so, now so and so's cards are skyrocketing....not because hes hitting .230 but because hes perceived to be popular.