NBA Top Shot - High Risk, High Reward?

[hmballin]

Don't really have the expendable income at the moment to get in on this but might have to just to get the otto porter moment just to be able to get a bulls one for semi cheap.

[ninjacookies]

Going to try slanging my Giannis MVP moves for btc/eth/ltc on /r.

[KandJ]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

No fees for pulling it off the market. You can list and remove all you want. Only issue some people have run into is sometimes it bugs out and doesn't let you delist for a while. They seem to have gotten that fixed now though.

Thank you for the info.

[Yoddleman]

Alright what’s the deal with this? I’m not totally convinced on buying this yet. Do you just have to get lucky pulling good moments or is there a real way to invest? I have a buddy who’s not in the card game ask me if I heard about it and went on saying he bought a demarcus cousins moment LOL. I looked at the marketplace and seen absurdly high prices, do people actually buy them? If so What’s honestly more in a “bubble” cards or these gifs?

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by Yoddleman

Alright what’s the deal with this? I’m not totally convinced on buying this yet. Do you just have to get lucky pulling good moments or is there a real way to invest? I have a buddy who’s not in the card game ask me if I heard about it and went on saying he bought a demarcus cousins moment LOL. I looked at the marketplace and seen absurdly high prices, do people actually buy them? If so What’s honestly more in a “bubble” cards or these gifs?

People are dumping huge money into this. I am just reaping the benefit of people paying huge money and driving up the prices. It is simply a supply versus demand issue right now. There are very limited amount of cards and tons of new people the entered the market. Honestly, it is not a smart thing to get involved in this right now. I would wait for the chance to get a pack and start off that way. The only way you can start by buying is to throw a few thousand into this, which people are doing.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by Yoddleman

Alright what’s the deal with this? I’m not totally convinced on buying this yet. Do you just have to get lucky pulling good moments or is there a real way to invest? I have a buddy who’s not in the card game ask me if I heard about it and went on saying he bought a demarcus cousins moment LOL. I looked at the marketplace and seen absurdly high prices, do people actually buy them? If so What’s honestly more in a “bubble” cards or these gifs?

In my opinion this is the real deal. I know prices seem insane but you have to remember this is series 1 and 2 of this. Future releases will have way higher "print runs" and look more like the landscape we are used to (stars and rookies holding actual value). I think it will slow down at some point but there is still room for so much growth. I think prices for series 1 and 2 will end up about 5 times as high as they are right now when it is all said and done. The question will be what happens when the market finally settles down. Do the flippers all leave and cause a bit of a crash? I think it is definitely possible but over time it should find it's own place in the collection world. NBA players have loved this so far.

[KD35Russ0]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

In my opinion this is the real deal. I know prices seem insane but you have to remember this is series 1 and 2 of this. Future releases will have way higher "print runs" and look more like the landscape we are used to (stars and rookies holding actual value). I think it will slow down at some point but there is still room for so much growth. I think prices for series 1 and 2 will end up about 5 times as high as they are right now when it is all said and done. The question will be what happens when the market finally settles down. Do the flippers all leave and cause a bit of a crash? I think it is definitely possible but over time it should find it's own place in the collection world. NBA players have loved this so far.

I think people are still missing the point. It's a currency, not a collectible. It's 1/1000th the cap of bitcoin. Could it get to 1/100th? That seems reasonable and still means it's going to 10x

[Yoddleman]

So sounds like I’ll try to get packs and stick to buying singles in cards lmao I just don’t have faith in it just yet to spend 1k+ on a video

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

In my opinion this is the real deal. I know prices seem insane but you have to remember this is series 1 and 2 of this. Future releases will have way higher "print runs" and look more like the landscape we are used to (stars and rookies holding actual value). I think it will slow down at some point but there is still room for so much growth. I think prices for series 1 and 2 will end up about 5 times as high as they are right now when it is all said and done. The question will be what happens when the market finally settles down. Do the flippers all leave and cause a bit of a crash? I think it is definitely possible but over time it should find it's own place in the collection world. NBA players have loved this so far.

How do you see a lot of room to growth with higher print runs in the future? I think it can grow more if they keep the same strategy - under 20000 copies per base set series, 2 series per season. They can just increase pack value by 100% instead of making more copies.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

How do you see a lot of room to growth with higher print runs in the future? I think it can grow more if they keep the same strategy - under 20000 copies per base set series, 2 series per season. They can just increase pack value by 100% instead of making more copies.

Because they want low end collectors to be able to enjoy it as well. The high end collectors can focus on series 1 and 2 and then all of the new rookies and star highlights that come out in future releases, plus they will have special limited sets that come out in the future as well so the high end crowd will have plenty to focus on. The low end crowd and at this point really anyone but high end spenders are completely left in the dust right now. They want people to be able to buy $9 packs and have a chance at a big time low numbered rookie. The only way to possibly do that is to have a bunch of very widely made moments.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

How do you see a lot of room to growth with higher print runs in the future? I think it can grow more if they keep the same strategy - under 20000 copies per base set series, 2 series per season. They can just increase pack value by 100% instead of making more copies.

Part of the thrill of Top Shot is opening a pack. If people can't get packs they will leave IMO. I think they will have cheaper common packs and then they will have expensive packs for the high end stuff. They can't keep the pack release and population the same or this will fail.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

Because they want low end collectors to be able to enjoy it as well. The high end collectors can focus on series 1 and 2 and then all of the new rookies and star highlights that come out in future releases, plus they will have special limited sets that come out in the future as well so the high end crowd will have plenty to focus on. The low end crowd and at this point really anyone but high end spenders are completely left in the dust right now. They want people to be able to buy $9 packs and have a chance at a big time low numbered rookie. The only way to possibly do that is to have a bunch of very widely made moments.

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Part of the thrill of Top Shot is opening a pack. If people can't get packs they will leave IMO. I think they will have cheaper common packs and then they will have expensive packs for the high end stuff. They can't keep the pack release and population the same or this will fail.

I get what you guys are saying and it makes a lot of sense...I just think it's going to be different.

Most of the people hooked up now are because of the marketplace. The thrill of the flip in real time with all the information available. It's awesome!

I just don't think this is gonna catch up with collectors in the short term. And if it does, it's gonna affect prices. Why pay 2k for a LeBron when there are hundreds of thousands of them? I get that the first Series will always command a premium but releasing that many cards will hurt it...and I don't think the collector base can grow fast enough.

I've been way wrong before and I can be again. But I think TS is gonna handle this carefully and won't increase the number of minted moments (I do see them increasing the size of the sets though)

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by KD35Russ0

I think people are still missing the point. It's a currency, not a collectible. It's 1/1000th the cap of bitcoin. Could it get to 1/100th? That seems reasonable and still means it's going to 10x

It's actually 1/500th. We are at 2B now.

[kevbojones]

Late to the party, but I threw in about $100 a couple of weeks ago and gobbled up $2-$12 clips of legitimate stars. The most I spend was $17 for a Giannis Dunk.

Sold a free Donovan Mitchel "Gift" for $285 and bought a few higher priced cards with the profit from the free card

Nevertheless, my "portfolio" has grown to $2700 in monopoly money in two weeks, double from yesterday.

I'm not spending any more money, as there aren't any interesting cheaper clips, but I love my collection

https://www.nbatopshot.com/user/@kevbojones/moments

Originally Posted by discodanman45

People are dumping huge money into this. I am just reaping the benefit of people paying huge money and driving up the prices. It is simply a supply versus demand issue right now. There are very limited amount of cards and tons of new people the entered the market. Honestly, it is not a smart thing to get involved in this right now. I would wait for the chance to get a pack and start off that way. The only way you can start by buying is to throw a few thousand into this, which people are doing.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

How do you see a lot of room to growth with higher print runs in the future? I think it can grow more if they keep the same strategy - under 20000 copies per base set series, 2 series per season. They can just increase pack value by 100% instead of making more copies.

Originally Posted by rysportguy

Because they want low end collectors to be able to enjoy it as well. They want people to be able to buy $9 packs and have a chance at a big time low numbered rookie. The only way to possibly do that is to have a bunch of very widely made moments.

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Part of the thrill of Top Shot is opening a pack. If people can't get packs they will leave IMO. I think they will have cheaper common packs and then they will have expensive packs for the high end stuff. They can't keep the pack release and population the same or this will fail.

They've reiterated that they will offer as many base packs as possible. In order to meet demand, they have no choice but raise mint runs. There isn't a problem with that. If you look at the cardboard world....people are still paying a premium for 2019 Prizm LeBron James base cards. There are probably 100K or more of those. Topps and Panini put out a million cards of a certain player every year, the difference is that they are over 30-40 different sets. I can see Dapper Labs doing the same thing. We are probably going to see 50K to 99K print runs though. This hasn't even hit a good majority of the world yet.

[ThePackLife]

Trying to figure out what's the better buy at the same price point... A slightly lowered edition of 12,000 or a better player at the 15,000.

Im leaning towards lower pop... what do you guys think?

[hopalong]

Originally Posted by ThePackLife

Trying to figure out what's the better buy at the same price point... A slightly lowered edition of 12,000 or a better player at the 15,000.

Im leaning towards lower pop... what do you guys think?

I would think the better player wins out long term

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by ThePackLife

Trying to figure out what's the better buy at the same price point... A slightly lowered edition of 12,000 or a better player at the 15,000.

Im leaning towards lower pop... what do you guys think?

Originally Posted by hopalong

I would think the better player wins out long term

Agreed, there isn't going to be much difference between 12k and 15k in the long run with where this is going. Just go with the better player.

[ThePackLife]

Thanks guys! I got an amazing price on the 12K card off a refresh so I went ahead and bought it. Now taking your advice and trying to find deals on the better players.

[BaseGravenberch]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I get what you guys are saying and it makes a lot of sense...I just think it's going to be different.

Most of the people hooked up now are because of the marketplace. The thrill of the flip in real time with all the information available. It's awesome!

I just don't think this is gonna catch up with collectors in the short term. And if it does, it's gonna affect prices. Why pay 2k for a LeBron when there are hundreds of thousands of them? I get that the first Series will always command a premium but releasing that many cards will hurt it...and I don't think the collector base can grow fast enough.

I've been way wrong before and I can be again. But I think TS is gonna handle this carefully and won't increase the number of minted moments (I do see them increasing the size of the sets though)

They already confirmed the next print run will start at 25k cc because of the demand. The whole thought is that it affects current prices because come on it's getting a little ridiculous. When I see new people asking is all I can afford really Biyombo that should be telling. There should be an entry level to this and packs shouldn't be guaranteed profit. They have a full game economy team on board and they know what they're doing.

[ThePackLife]

Imagine if they decide to do 1 of 1's randomly distributed in packs... Sheesh.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by ThePackLife

Imagine if they decide to do 1 of 1's randomly distributed in packs... Sheesh.

That's what the #1 serial number is in the digital world.

[Howie7107]

Well guess we’ll see if there’s another panic sell-off if most people wake up this morning and see their valuations down from when they went to bed.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by Howie7107

Well guess we’ll see if there’s another panic sell-off if most people wake up this morning and see their valuations down from when they went to bed.

I'm not seeing a big drop and I have a pretty good balance of S1 and S2.Just normal fluctuations. About a 2% drop from the high last night. Rather normal

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by Yoddleman

Alright what’s the deal with this? I’m not totally convinced on buying this yet. Do you just have to get lucky pulling good moments or is there a real way to invest? I have a buddy who’s not in the card game ask me if I heard about it and went on saying he bought a demarcus cousins moment LOL. I looked at the marketplace and seen absurdly high prices, do people actually buy them? If so What’s honestly more in a “bubble” cards or these gifs?

I’m surprised it took this long for the first mention of a bubble. That’s like the go to word right now I swear