Patrick Mahomes Prices

[Fenway55]

Originally Posted by codered

This year they were a good team that got every bounce imaginable. Favourable calls (not their fault), favourable goal post bounces, idiot coaches that can’t manage the clock, miracle FG blocks and saved by a toe. Realistically they could/should have been the 2nd or 3rd seed if not for ridiculous luck.

It is amazing how much the Chiefs overachieved - and I mean that as a compliment. They find a way to win those close games. Their Pythagorean win projection this year was 10.15 wins but they finished with 15. I can't find another example of a team overachieving so much.

That aside, next year they will be closer to Pythagorean number than actual number of wins they had this past year.

Originally Posted by slyguy

The Chief are washed up, right?
Vegas must not know what you do.

If I supported the Chiefs, I wouldn't reference the Vegas odds. While they are indeed in the top 2 or top 3 at every sportsbook, they are on average a pretty long +700. That's an implied 12.5% chance so obviously Vegas does not believe heavily in KC in 2025.

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by slyguy

One of Brady's SB wins was that Seattle couldn't just hand off to one of the most dominant RBs of the day to get a goal line go-ahead TD.

I think SB are a terrible metric, but we use it. There is nearly always some luck and/or opponent error that goes into winning.

Chiefs tend to do a lot of winning. Mahomes has won a ton more than Rodgers ever did (and much more than Brady - so far, not yet overall).

If Mahomes gets some OL and WRs (Xavier improved all year... then add Rice if back healthy or FA or whatever), look out. The guy has already had better stats seasons than most HOF QBs ever did, and he's clearly still in his prime.

Oh, I see. Then why do you suppose KC is the favorite or top 3 odds to win 2025 season SB at nearly every sportsbook?

I would say that's Ried + Mahomes + results, but what do I know?

The Chief are washed up, right?
Vegas must not know what you do.

Funny you bring up Seattle game when just 2 weeks ago Chiefs was hellbent to stop Saquon from running all over them and it worked! Until mahomes spotted them 17 points

[KardsC1]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

I am reading people talk about how having a bad game in the SB doesnt tarnish Pats legacy and everyone has bad games etc...

there are degrees of ¨importance¨ of losses for legacy. for example. a preseason loss is obviously not as important as a regular season loss. likewise, a regular season loss is not as important as a loss in the wild card round of playoffs.

you get the progression: WC loss < divisional series loss< Conference Championship loss<Super Bowl loss.

I would posit that the progression of importance of losses to ¨legacy¨ would be akin to the Richter scale. each level is not just another loss, but a loss a full magnitude worse than the previous round because each round further into the playoffs is SO much more important than the previous round. it is where the good teams are exposed by the great teams.

EX. an 8.0 earthquake is 32 times more powerful than a 7.0.

similarly, super bowl loss is significantly worse than a loss in the AFCCG. And losing badly in the SB is worse than a close loss, legacy wise.

By your argument, making the SB and losing is worse than ever getting to the SB…this logic is very flawed.. being a runner up in the SB is always better than not getting there ..: being the best team that year in your conference is still a good thing you know

To be your GOAT, you might as well AVoID making the playoffs to avoid losses .. what kind of goat does that?

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by KardsC1

By your argument, making the SB and losing is worse than ever getting to the SB…this logic is very flawed.. being a runner up in the SB is always better than not getting there ..: being the best team that year in your conference is still a good thing you know

To be your GOAT, you might as well AVoID making the playoffs to avoid losses .. what kind of goat does that?

I will never understand the camp that thinks its better to not make a super bowl than to make it and lose.

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by KardsC1

By your argument, making the SB and losing is worse than ever getting to the SB…this logic is very flawed.. being a runner up in the SB is always better than not getting there ..: being the best team that year in your conference is still a good thing you know

To be your GOAT, you might as well AVoID making the playoffs to avoid losses .. what kind of goat does that?

Oh wow! You must be a big fan of Jim Kelly then he made it 4x in a row. More than Mahomies

[daveyc1]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

Funny image. Care to use your words if you disagree?

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[daveyc1]

Originally Posted by slyguy

Oh? How did Rodgers do in playoffs?

Aaron 2024 had basically the hottest best young WR besides Jefferson/Chase in Garrett Wilson and then also added a HOF WR Adams (and they didn't come close to making playoffs!).

Mahomes 2024 lost WR1 Rashee Rice after week 3, his WR2 Hollywood preseason surgery and never played until the very end. Pat was throwing to a rookie, grandpa Kelce, and jack and spit for 2024 (made SB). It was even worse in 2023 with rookie Rashee and MVS and assorted clowns catching passes (won SB).

Not really comparable, sir.

Did i say anything about playoffs? Their regular season statistics are very similar. Mahomes played about as well as a 40 year old who had not played in 1.5 years (minus 4 plays) because of a severe season ending injury.

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[slyguy]

Originally Posted by Chris P

I will never understand the camp that thinks its better to not make a super bowl than to make it and lose.

Yeah, those ppl have to be fans of bad teams or something.
I don't get it... at all.

You'd way rather be Jim Kelly or Tarkenton (many big games but no wins)
than Warren Moon or Dan Fouts or Archie Manning (little/no playoff success).
...maybe even rather be those first two guys than Marino (good stats, few big games).

It's obviously meaningful to play in the big games - win or lose.
I was amazed Saquon said this year he'd rather have a SB shot than season rushing record (which may stand 20, 30years???). Big games matter. Vets take lower $ to have good team/coaches and ring chase for a reason.

This is one of those things that's so common sense it doesn't need much reply.
People saying losing a SB is bad are just trolling. Every team but one fails to win the SB.

[KardsC1]

Originally Posted by Delta5

Oh wow! You must be a big fan of Jim Kelly then he made it 4x in a row. More than Mahomies

Yes Kelly went 0-4…but if someone played and went 0-4 seasons with no playoffs , I’d take Kelly over them

Since deltas guy Allen can’t get to the big game, he someone convinced himself that losing in the afc was a good thing now…I assure you Allen thinks otherwise

[Fenway55]

Originally Posted by Delta5

Oh wow! You must be a big fan of Jim Kelly then he made it 4x in a row. More than Mahomies

I'd put Kelly in my top-3 all time QBs who never won a Super Bowl.

[slyguy]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

Did i say anything about playoffs? Their regular season statistics are very similar. Mahomes played about as well as a 40 year old who had not played in 1.5 years (minus 4 plays) because of a severe season ending injury.

You're comparing apples to oranges.

Jets' Wilson is unbelievable... way better than Rashee Rice.
Then Rice gets hurt early, out for the year... Mahomes had basically nothing for WRs (rookie Worthy forced to try WR1 still very limited and pretty lost early).

ARodg also gets Davante midseason (HOF receiver still in his prime, history with Rodgers).
Mahomes gets aging slow DHop. (not exactly getting Tyreek back, eh?)

Do you think Mahomes throwing to Garrett Wilson and Davante would be ok?
I do... probably about 4500yds /40+ td for an MVP type stats year (again).

The guy put a Disney pic reply because it's a goofball comment. Football's a team game. This is not NBA where a good guy on a bad team still scores pretty well.

[Fenway55]

All of a sudden the 15-2 Chiefs were the worst team in football this past year on offense (except Mahomes) with the worst o-line, worst receivers, worst RBs.

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by Fenway55

All of a sudden the 15-2 Chiefs were the worst team in football this past year on offense (except Mahomes) with the worst o-line, worst receivers, worst RBs.

To be fair..weren't most critics on here saying there wins were mostly fluky and their record was a sham?

[daveyc1]

Originally Posted by KardsC1

By your argument, making the SB and losing is worse than ever getting to the SB…this logic is very flawed.. being a runner up in the SB is always better than not getting there ..: being the best team that year in your conference is still a good thing you know

To be your GOAT, you might as well AVoID making the playoffs to avoid losses .. what kind of goat does that?

yes, for an individual players legacy, it looks worse to have lost repeatedly (and badly) In championship games/series. look at what 4 losses did to jim kellys legacy. He would be talked about much differently had he gone 1-0 in the SB instead of making 4 and losing them all. How about Fran Tarkenton. what if Elway was 2-0 instead of 2-3? Would Marino look better at 0-6 in the SB than 0-1? of course not, he would just look more like a player who could not compete in the most important/stressful games.

it is not a feather in a players cap to be the first runner up (first loser) over and over and over. it is like saying ¨I am just happy to be here¨

to extrapolate the point, which do you think most people would consider a better legacy: a QB going 0-14 in the super bowl or a QB going 1-0?

all to say that losing in the biggest game is worse, legacy wise, than losing in earlier rounds. there is no prize for simply making it to the final game. you have to win it.

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

yes, for an individual players legacy, it looks worse to have lost repeatedly (and badly) In championship games/series. look at what 4 losses did to jim kellys legacy. He would be talked about much differently had he gone 1-0 in the SB instead of making 4 and losing them all. How about Fran Tarkenton. what if Elway was 2-0 instead of 2-3? Would Marino look better at 0-6 in the SB than 0-1? of course not, he would just look more like a player who could not compete in the most important/stressful games.

it is not a feather in a players cap to be the first runner up (first loser) over and over and over. it is like saying ¨I am just happy to be here¨

to extrapolate the point, which do you think most people would consider a better legacy: a QB going 0-14 in the super bowl or a QB going 1-0?

all to say that losing in the biggest game is worse, legacy wise, than losing in earlier rounds. there is no prize for simply making it to the final game. you have to win it.

Sorry I'll never agree with this.

[slyguy]

Lol, this tool gets ignore... what a waste of time. Wow.

[daveyc1]

Originally Posted by slyguy

You're comparing apples to oranges.

Jets' Wilson is unbelievable... way better than Rashee Rice.
Then Rice gets hurt early, out for the year... Mahomes had basically nothing for WRs (rookie Worthy forced to try WR1 still very limited and pretty lost early).

ARodg also gets Davante midseason (HOF receiver still in his prime, history with Rodgers).
Mahomes gets aging slow DHop. (not exactly getting Tyreek back, eh?)

Do you think Mahomes throwing to Garrett Wilson and Davante would be ok?
I do... probably about 4500yds /40+ td for an MVP type stats year (again).

The guy put a Disney pic reply because it's a goofball comment. Football's a team game. This is not NBA where a good guy on a bad team still scores pretty well.

these are excuses. Patty played just about the same as a 40 year old coming off from season ending surgery with 1.5 years of rust.

every player and every team have challenges during the season. those challenges need to be overcome.

you are starting to resemble the old Shakespeare quote: the lady doth protest too much methinks...

[Fenway55]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

yes, for an individual players legacy, it looks worse to have lost repeatedly (and badly) In championship games/series. look at what 4 losses did to jim kellys legacy. He would be talked about much differently had he gone 1-0 in the SB instead of making 4 and losing them all. How about Fran Tarkenton. what if Elway was 2-0 instead of 2-3? Would Marino look better at 0-6 in the SB than 0-1? of course not, he would just look more like a player who could not compete in the most important/stressful games.

it is not a feather in a players cap to be the first runner up (first loser) over and over and over. it is like saying ¨I am just happy to be here¨

to extrapolate the point, which do you think most people would consider a better legacy: a QB going 0-14 in the super bowl or a QB going 1-0?

all to say that losing in the biggest game is worse, legacy wise, than losing in earlier rounds. there is no prize for simply making it to the final game. you have to win it.

Nothing helps a QB's legacy more than winning a Super Bowl. I don't think you'll find anyone who disagrees with that. Legacy wise, you're better off going 1-0 than 0-4.

But the question is: Does losing a Super Bowl hurt a QB's legacy more than simply not making it? The answer is no, it doesn't. There is nothing about losing Wild Card weekend that helps a QB's legacy more than losing Super Bowl weekend. There is nothing about being 3-0 in Super Bowls that is better than being 3-2.

To counter your above extrapolation (but using a real-world example): Which do you think most people would consider a better legacy: A QB going 7-3 in the Super Bowl or a QB going 4-0?

Originally Posted by daveyc1

these are excuses. Patty played just about the same as a 40 year old coming off from season ending surgery with 1.5 years of rust.

every player and every team have challenges during the season. those challenges need to be overcome.

you are starting to resemble the old Shakespeare quote: the lady doth protest too much methinks...

We disagree on the Super Bowl thing but I 100% agree with you here.

[slyguy]

Lol, people who can't afford Mahomes cards... then bash Mahomes in any way possible. Love it.

This is classic beta move of shooting the arrow, and then painting the bullseye around it.
It's marrying the girl who's a 6... and saying you didn't want a 9 or a 10 because "they're stuck up." Lol.

Keep buying those lesser QBs whose cards will mostly be in the dollar or free piles when they retire.
Sports cards is a SUPERstar system. Every real good player has a few injury years or playoff stumbles. Every single one.
I would strongly encourage anyone here to open old packs (at least 5-10yrs, or more). Junk wax packs ~1985-1995 are basically free - for any sport you want. You will see that 98% of the players/cards are worthless. Many guys had a few good years. In the end, even Favre or Marino cards are worth VERY little relative to Brady - pennies on the dollar. Superstars are what matters... but none of them win it all (SB, MVP) every year.

[spend1kget50bac]

Originally Posted by Fenway55

It is amazing how much the Chiefs overachieved - and I mean that as a compliment. They find a way to win those close games. Their Pythagorean win projection this year was 10.15 wins but they finished with 15. I can't find another example of a team overachieving so much.

That aside, next year they will be closer to Pythagorean number than actual number of wins they had this past year.
If I supported the Chiefs, I wouldn't reference the Vegas odds. While they are indeed in the top 2 or top 3 at every sportsbook, they are on average a pretty long +700. That's an implied 12.5% chance so obviously Vegas does not believe heavily in KC in 2025.

I mean as you point out it's top 2-3....to me + 700 to win the super bowl is a generally short number and indicates that people to do believe in you.

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by KardsC1

Yes Kelly went 0-4…but if someone played and went 0-4 seasons with no playoffs , I’d take Kelly over them

Since deltas guy Allen can’t get to the big game, he someone convinced himself that losing in the afc was a good thing now…I assure you Allen thinks otherwise

Youd take Kelly over Brees? Rodgers? You must have Peyton Manning and Jim Kelly as equal and Eli Manning wayy behind Jim Kelly then

[daveyc1]

Originally Posted by Fenway55

Nothing helps a QB's legacy more than winning a Super Bowl. I don't think you'll find anyone who disagrees with that. Legacy wise, you're better off going 1-0 than 0-4.

But the question is: Does losing a Super Bowl hurt a QB's legacy more than simply not making it? The answer is no, it doesn't. There is nothing about losing Wild Card weekend that helps a QB's legacy more than losing Super Bowl weekend. There is nothing about being 3-0 in Super Bowls that is better than being 3-2.

To counter your above extrapolation (but using a real-world example): Which do you think most people would consider a better legacy: A QB going 7-3 in the Super Bowl or a QB going 4-0?

We disagree on the Super Bowl thing but I 100% agree with you here.

Oh, i think sb losses do hurt legacy. You remember back after tom won number 4, most still thought Montana was goat because of 4-0. Brady had to make it to 5 before it was more universal, and even then there were holdouts. It took him almost lapping the field with wins before it was common knowledge. Wins being equal, the losses will matter for legacy.

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[Delta5]

Whoever taking Jim Kelly over Dan Marino is a tool

[KardsC1]

Originally Posted by Delta5

Youd take Kelly over Brees? Rodgers? You must have Peyton Manning and Jim Kelly as equal and Eli Manning wayy behind Jim Kelly then

Winning a SB does more for legacy vs 0-4….but here’s my point
Player one: 1-3 SBs
Player two: 1-0 SB

I rather choose player one all day

[slyguy]

I simply can't wait for KC to draft OL, get FA OL, get a FA WR (or re-sign HBrown), maybe get Rice back, and have an absolutely dominant offense (again).

I would love to read here and then see what people say then about Mahomes cheating or anyone can do it with that team, but I'll probably be too busy opening my 2017 sealed packs to send some PM RCs for grading.