Shane Bieber

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by rman112

Either WAR matters, or it doesn't. All you're doing is picking times when it matters, and when it doesn't.

When was I picking when it doesn't matter? It always matters. Just as strikeouts, wins, and ERA always matter. They're all a piece of the puzzle. The top guy in WAR can lose if he's blown out in the other categories. The top guy in Wins and Ks can lose if he's blown out in WAR.

In 2018, DeGrom was 10-9 to Scherzer's 18-17, 269 strikeouts to Scherzer's 300, ahead by 0.89 in ERA. DeGrom got 29 of 30 1st place votes. Guess what? DeGrom blew him out in WAR as well at 9 to 7.5. If you put DeGrom's WAR down to 7.5 and change nothing else, Scherzer gets more than 1 vote

[rman112]

Originally Posted by BBases31

When was I picking when it doesn't matter? It always matters. Just as strikeouts, wins, and ERA always matter. They're all a piece of the puzzle. The top guy in WAR can lose if he's blown out in the other categories. The top guy in Wins and Ks can lose if he's blown out in WAR.

In 2018, DeGrom was 10-9 to Scherzer's 18-17, 269 strikeouts to Scherzer's 300, ahead by 0.89 in ERA. DeGrom got 29 of 30 1st place votes. Guess what? DeGrom blew him out in WAR as well at 9 to 7.5. If you put DeGrom's WAR down to 7.5 and change nothing else, Scherzer gets more than 1 vote

WAR is flawed, though. That's the point. You're really telling me that miniscule pitching WAR differences matter this year? Those numbers, like ERA, combined with others, are supposed to give us a WAR number that means something. It doesn't. Not only did it happen with Lynn last year, but it's happening again this year.

If you're telling me that Cole can have a run and a half ERA higher than Lynn, in 10 less innings, where Cole is giving up an insane amount of runs on his own doing with homers, and that Cole has a higher WAR.. you're just telling me not to pay attention to WAR. And ESPECIALLY with such a small sample size with minute differences.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by rman112

WAR is flawed, though. That's the point.

I 1000% agree pitcher WAR is flawed, I am not a Cy voter though.

You're really telling me that miniscule pitching WAR differences matter this year?

They'll matter in the same way differences will matter in any other stat.

Those numbers, like ERA, combined with others, are supposed to give us a WAR number that means something. It doesn't.

ERA is not a part of the WAR calc.

Not only did it happen with Lynn last year, but it's happening again this year.

You should read up on how they calculate pitcher WAR, it makes sense(even if not perfect) and it's not complicated. For me I personally don't care about it as I'm only interested in what a pitcher's true talent is currently and how they are going to perform in the future and WAR is useless to me for that

If you're telling me that Cole can have a run and a half ERA higher than Lynn, in 10 less innings, where Cole is giving up an insane amount of runs on his own doing with homers, and that Cole has a higher WAR.. you're just telling me not to pay attention to WAR. And ESPECIALLY with such a small sample size with minute differences.

ERA is not a part of WAR and for good reason. The base of pitcher WAR is FIP. But Cole doesn't have a higher WAR I haven't a clue why you think that. Going into tonight Cole was at 0.6 and Lynn was at 1.3. The only reason I mentioned Cole's name is because he's one of the most dominant pitchers in the league playing on one of the league's best teams and we are only half way through the season. Just as Trout is still an outside threat at MVP. Cole had 2.1 WAR last year in September alone. After tonight though, Cole is for sure out of it

[rman112]

ERA not factoring in is likely a huge reason why it can be so off. The entire point of pitching is to not give up runs.

Put it this way. NOT using WAR, where are you ranking the field behin Bieber? Giolito, Cole, Lynn, Bundy, Keuchel.

Why would you mention Giolito and Cole before Lynn?

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by rman112

ERA not factoring in is likely a huge reason why it can be so off. The entire point of pitching is to not give up runs.

There is alot of variance in ERA that a pitcher cannot control. ERA penalizes pitchers that pitch in home hitter parks and helps pitchers who pitch in pitcher parks. Just as a pitcher has no control over bad defense behind him not getting to balls. Remember that not every missed ball is an error. A ball that Laureano lays out for but another CF doesn't dive for and lets drop in is a major ERA advantage to the pitcher with Laureano behind. Pitcher WAR gets the input down to what a pitcher can control

Put it this way. NOT using WAR, where are you ranking the field behin Bieber? Giolito, Cole, Lynn, Bundy, Keuchel.

True talent right now or who's has the best shot to finish behind him in the Cy voting? Those are two different questions. In terms who of is expected to give up the least runs if you put them on the mound right now(true talent) I'd go:

2. Cole
3. Snell
4. Maeda
5. Glasnow

Who has the best chance at finishing #2 in Cy voting:

2. Maeda(should've mentioned his name to begin with)
3. Giolito
4. Cole
5. Lynn

Why would you mention Giolito and Cole before Lynn?

Remember how I said WAR doesn't help you predict future performance . I mentioned the names of the two who I thought could perform well enough over the rest of the season to get within range of Bieber if Bieber had some bad starts.

[rman112]

I mean if the season ended yesterday. Would you put Giolito #2 in the Cy? Do you think the voters would put Giolito #2 in the Cy?

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by rman112

I mean if the season ended yesterday. Would you put Giolito #2 in the Cy? Do you think the voters would put Giolito #2 in the Cy?

If it ended today? Giolito might get a few 2nd place votes because he is 2nd in WAR, 2nd in Ks, and 2nd in FIP among the top contenders(Giolito, Lynn, Maeda)but most of the voters who care about being playoff team or not and thus wouldn't put Lynn second are probably picking Maeda over Giolito due to the extra win and lower ERA. Lynn would steal some from Maeda on account of the ERA

It's really only possible for me to think of pitchers' performance in terms of stripping out as much as luck as possible and additionally wins and ERA mean zero to me. So my list would look ridiculous to anyone who sees baseball in traditional terms. It would look pretty close to the SIERA ranking with a few changes on account of stuff that SIERA doesn't catch

[rman112]

Originally Posted by BBases31

If it ended today? Giolito might get a few 2nd place votes because he is 2nd in WAR, 2nd in Ks, and 2nd in FIP among the top contenders(Giolito, Lynn, Maeda)but most of the voters who care about being playoff team or not and thus wouldn't put Lynn second are probably picking Maeda over Giolito due to the extra win and lower ERA.

You said that before today, Giolito was 2nd in pitching WAR. I'm assuming you wouldn't put him 2nd yourself, or that he wouldn't finish 2nd, because you didn't really answer the question. That's how it SHOULD be. He hasn't been the second best pitcher in the AL. WAR is wrong here.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by rman112

You said that before today, Giolito was 2nd in pitching WAR. I'm assuming you wouldn't put him 2nd yourself, or that he wouldn't finish 2nd, because you didn't really answer the question. That's how it SHOULD be. He hasn't been the second best pitcher in the AL. WAR is wrong here.

The issue is how you want to measure second best pitcher. YOU care more about ERA. There are alot of things that are out of a pitcher's control that impact ERA. Why would you penalize a pitcher for the ballpark he pitches in? Or who plays in the infield behind? WAR strips out the defense completely and most of the park bonus/penalties except for HRs. If you think that's just part of it, that's ok. I think it's better to judge pitchers on what they CAN completely control

I wouldn't put him 2nd myself because there is a way to strip out even MORE things a pitcher can't control than WAR. But WAR is far better than ERA or any traditional counting stat. You are saying WAR sucks and is flawed and are pointing to ERA instead. ERA is worse at what you're trying to measure

[rman112]

Originally Posted by BBases31

The issue is how you want to measure second best pitcher. YOU care more about ERA. There are alot of things that are out of a pitcher's control that impact ERA. Why would you penalize a pitcher for the ballpark he pitches in? Or who plays in the infield behind? WAR strips out the defense completely and most of the park bonus/penalties except for HRs. If you think that's just part of it, that's ok. I think it's better to judge pitchers on what they CAN completely control

I wouldn't put him 2nd myself because there is a way to strip out even MORE things a pitcher can't control than WAR. But WAR is far better than ERA or any traditional counting stat

You can't strip out defense, though. It doesn't work like that. Even in an ever-increasing strikeout game.

If you're taking a guy with an ERA that's a run or a run and a half higher than the next guy, and while he's also thrown less innings, I'd say you're overthinking things.

Lance Lynn is breaking pitching WAR for the second straight year. And it's kinda funny. When his WAR is too high, it gets dismissed. When it's too low for a guy with a sub-2 ERA with a lot of innings, WAR alsp gets dismissed. Go figure.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by rman112

You can't strip out defense, though. It doesn't work like that.

It does work like that if you want the best measure of which pitcher actually performed the best. If you want to give an award for the best pitcher+defense combo, then by all means, ERA is your gold standard and you should rename your award The Cy Young/Ozzie Smith Award.

If you're taking a guy with an ERA that's a run or a run and a half higher than the next guy, and while he's also thrown less innings, I'd say you're overthinking things.

There's nothing to overthink. If you want to measure which pitcher performed the best based on what he had control over, ERA is garbage.

Lance Lynn is breaking pitching WAR for the second straight year. And it's kinda funny. When his WAR is too high, it gets dismissed. When it's too low for a guy with a sub-2 ERA with a lot of innings, WAR alsp gets dismissed. Go figure.

Lance Lynn is not breaking WAR lol. You just don't understand how WAR is calculated and what it represents. Here's an explainer: https://library.fangraphs.com/war/ca...-war-pitchers/

We can just agree to disagree beyond here. Going in circles at this point

[rman112]

You can't separate the two. You can try to measure it in hypotheticals.

[Danderlion]

Originally Posted by RickeyHenderson

All I know is that there is a lot of great rookie prices for the Bieber who is almost a lock for The Cy Young and potentially MVP. Seriously great prices for such potential achievements in the hottest market ever for baseball cards. Yup, I just bought a bunch


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Agree with this. His prices are still very affordable. I'm still buying as well (selling some too).

[tursillo2011]

Any predictions on where his prices end up this season? They had that slight jump after the first 2 weeks of the season and settled back down. Any guesses to where they go if/when he wins the Cy Young or even better, MVP?

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by tursillo2011

Any predictions on where his prices end up this season? They had that slight jump after the first 2 weeks of the season and settled back down. Any guesses to where they go if/when he wins the Cy Young or even better, MVP?

If he wins MVP his high end stuff is surely doubling. I don't think base can double. Can there really be $15 Update base of a pitcher? Kershaw won the MVP in 2014 but we're in a different era of cards. I think the guys that stand out now will move alot higher than anyone would've 5 years ago with the same accomplishments.

I would guess that even if he does get the MVP and crushes in the playoffs, you don't see any rise in the offseason and if he doesn't come out of the gate as the clear best pitcher in baseball next season his stuff will drop.

Personally, I'm buying everything I can of his(no base though). Not because I think he's going to shoot the moon on prices I just think he is performing right now like prime Pedro and he carries as close to zero performance risk as you can get from a pitcher. Alot of players look like they're putting on some legendary performance but the vast majority of them aren't. If you want the example of a pitcher, Fried is nowhere near as good as that ERA makes people think he is.

[RickeyHenderson]

In this market....if he wins MVP a much bigger fuss will be made in the media about a pitcher winning it and how rare it is.....the newest investment collectors to our hobby will ping his prices, see they are very cheap compared to other investment buys they did the past few months and gobble them up.

My prediction.....and to a lesser degree the above if he wins Cy Young and/or wins WS and does well

Essentially a lower risk speculation on his rookies now with some pretty good potential for return both short term and longer term. Reminded me (somewhat) of Kyle Lewis a month ago

[Danderlion]

Originally Posted by tursillo2011

Any predictions on where his prices end up this season? They had that slight jump after the first 2 weeks of the season and settled back down. Any guesses to where they go if/when he wins the Cy Young or even better, MVP?

I think his updates and chrome updates will go up about x2.5 if he gets the CY. Currently, these two cards are at $10 & $15 raw. To me, this is sort of low for a young pitcher of his quality with such a small offering of RCs.

If he gets CY and MVP... sheesh, no clue. I hope he does though

[messier2]

Originally Posted by Danderlion

I think his updates and chrome updates will go up about x2.5 if he gets the CY. Currently, these two cards are at $10 & $15 raw. To me, this is sort of low for a young pitcher of his quality with such a small offering of RCs.

If he gets CY and MVP... sheesh, no clue. I hope he does though

For them to be getting $10 now...if you can hold until if/when he gets the Cy Young...you will double your money!

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by messier2

For them to be getting $10 now...if you can hold until if/when he gets the Cy Young...you will double your money!

You guys are out of your mind if you think base doubles with a Cy Young. You expect his base RC to be worth 40% of Soto? But from what I'm seeing on Ebay it's more like $7 Update/$11 TCU right now. I still don't think it doubles from there with a Cy.

[messier2]

Originally Posted by BBases31

You guys are out of your mind if you think base doubles with a Cy Young. You expect his base RC to be worth 40% of Soto? But from what I'm seeing on Ebay it's more like $7 Update/$11 TCU right now. I still don't think it doubles from there with a Cy.

Crazier things have happened in the world of sports cards...especially now with the "new" money coming! I wouldn't count anything out!

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by messier2

Crazier things have happened in the world of sports cards...especially now with the "new" money coming! I wouldn't count anything out!

That's probably the best answer in the current market lol. I'm rooting for it with the stash I'm building

[messier2]

Originally Posted by BBases31

That's probably the best answer in the current market lol. I'm rooting for it with the stash I'm building

In addition, it's easier to spend $20 than $$$$ for the RC of the best player on your team. So, that's another factor...actual FANS of the team and the $20 price tag being affordable for most!

[BBases31]

Took the plunge on a PSA 10 Gold Update. First time I've ever bought a 10 where I was buying for the grade. Pop report is only 14, mostly because no one was sending Biebers into PSA but I wonder if this one is more condition sensitive than other players. There are also a bunch of raw Golds on Ebay and every single one has an obvious flaw that would preclude a 10 and quite a few are likely 8s.

And additionally I'm curious if there won't be that many more 10s going forward as people might not card have cared to protect a Bieber Gold for the first few months of ripping the product like they would have with a Soto.

[ClevelandIC]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Took the plunge on a PSA 10 Gold Update. First time I've ever bought a 10 where I was buying for the grade. Pop report is only 14, mostly because no one was sending Biebers into PSA but I wonder if this one is more condition sensitive than other players. There are also a bunch of raw Golds on Ebay and every single one has an obvious flaw that would preclude a 10 and quite a few are likely 8s.

And additionally I'm curious if there won't be that many more 10s going forward as people might not card have cared to protect a Bieber Gold for the first few months of ripping the product like they would have with a Soto.

I think I had 20-25 golds at my peak. I don't think a single one of them would have gotten a 10. This should have translated me into buying a PSA 10 but I didn't think of that, lol. Nice snag!

[Sportnut08]

Originally Posted by BBases31

If he wins MVP his high end stuff is surely doubling. I don't think base can double. Can there really be $15 Update base of a pitcher? Kershaw won the MVP in 2014 but we're in a different era of cards. I think the guys that stand out now will move alot higher than anyone would've 5 years ago with the same accomplishments.

I would guess that even if he does get the MVP and crushes in the playoffs, you don't see any rise in the offseason and if he doesn't come out of the gate as the clear best pitcher in baseball next season his stuff will drop.

Personally, I'm buying everything I can of his(no base though). Not because I think he's going to shoot the moon on prices I just think he is performing right now like prime Pedro and he carries as close to zero performance risk as you can get from a pitcher. Alot of players look like they're putting on some legendary performance but the vast majority of them aren't. If you want the example of a pitcher, Fried is nowhere near as good as that ERA makes people think he is.

Considering there's four of them currently, I would say no.