PSA just suspended all new submissions below Super Express

[ballhawkdawk]

Originally Posted by hauntedcomputer

If I were running it, I'd open July 1st with at least two more physical grading locations. It's always been stupid to do this in one place due to both shipping logistics and the shortage of people willing to move for assembly-line jobs.

But also if I were running this, I would be very wary of long-term leases and equipment purchases for what is likely a short-term business challenge. You can easily ditch employees but what use is slabbing equipment? Are people still going to be grading 20 million cards a year in 2024? I doubt it.

I think if PSA can get turnaround times significantly reduced they’d see even more volume. A lot of people want to slab their stuff but don’t want to wait 6+ months to get it back. But I also have no idea about the operational costs of a grading company.

[MyckKabongo]

Originally Posted by letsgocapitals

Couple thoughts:

- I'm beginning to think that AI will never be a thing. Too many card companies, sets, cuts, etc.

AI Grading was always a long, long ways off and it was funny to me when people talked about this as a solution. Nat came out and threw cold water on the hype in his first interviews after taking over when he said there will always be a human element to grading.

Tech hype is as crazy as it was in the 90s. People talk about extremely difficult tech accomplishments like they're coming tomorrow but if you actually work in the trenches you know how hard this stuff is to create. Back in '13-14 a lot of people though we'd have package delivery drones, incredible VR and fully self driving cars by 2020.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by hauntedcomputer

If I were running it, I'd open July 1st with at least two more physical grading locations. It's always been stupid to do this in one place due to both shipping logistics and the shortage of people willing to move for assembly-line jobs.

But also if I were running this, I would be very wary of long-term leases and equipment purchases for what is likely a short-term business challenge. You can easily ditch employees but what use is slabbing equipment? Are people still going to be grading 20 million cards a year in 2024? I doubt it.

Nat being a startup / tech guy I'm sure is going to Lean out the whole process. I'm sure there's plenty of waste to be cut

[bblair_2002]

Originally Posted by pewe

What makes you think that the millions of participants and their $$ that entered are in fact “hobbyists”, as opposed to “flippers”?

Especially since most of the publicity about sports cards is of the “get rich quick” variety...

My interpretation: additions are more likely to be into sports cards for the $$ as opposed to because they are excited to PC players / teams

And the evidence of 100x more demand for ultra modern / contemporary card grading seems to support that... PC types have much much less need / demand for grading services.


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Couldn't have said it better myself.

[Cardfanattic]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

Disagree. The hobby clearly added millions of hobbyists over the pandemic. I'm not sure this is even up for debate at this point.

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You are delusional and most likely a flipper. The hobby did not add millions of pure play card enthusiasts over the pandemic. There were other forces at play which forced most people’s hands. I mean think about. The ability to make $500 without breaking a sweat. All it takes is colluding with your friend at Target, posting your wares on OFFER UP, sitting back, and watching the money come in. Do you know what effect that will have on the mindset of a struggling individual looking to make ends meet or just trying to create additional income to pay his bills?!?!??!

Prior to the pandemic in late Summer 2019, box breaking and pack ripping was just taking off. No one paid any mind to PSA or had even heard of them outside hobbyists and collectors. I used to attend card shows locally in the NY area and start convos with dealers with tables about their wares and would throw in fire-starter comments about how I could never find boxes on retail shelves because the industry powers that be colluded to surreptitiously keep them out of the view of the public. They wouldn’t have those conversations with me and simply walked away with a nefarious smirk on their face. Again the industry is pegged by a elite few who control the distribution of this gold-like product. The fraternity is small and many are not invited. Once the pandemic took off and cloaked the public mindset, people joined the rat race to build supplemental incomes by selling these valuable boxes and packs. Ultramodern grading EXPLODED. People were sending in $5 paper prospects at the $15-$20 level in hopes of flipping them for $30 + $3.00 shipping. To corroborate this, all you need to do is patronize your favorite social media site and search for videos on Target Sports cards. If you think everyone of these individuals is an hobby purists, you are definitely on one.


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[noaskiecards]

Sir, this is a casino

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[CKIM]

This is good news...shows PSA suddenly getting a religion and tackling persistent backlog issues not just trying to grab more money from already long-suffering submitters/collectors. I can't imagine the insurance cost incurring every month to store & safe-keep these valuables in their warehouse for such extened periods. I predict come July 1, PSA will extend the suspension further into Falls/Winter.

[jduds]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

The assumption that Topps would only be slabbing pristine cards or using AI is funny.

And no, people don’t want slabbed cards. If that’s all they wanted they would be using the cheapest and fastest grader possible.

They want the $$$ boost.

1. The times companies have included slabs in boxes they have not all been pristine, so I think you are right.

2. Why can't it be both. You decide you want your cards slabbed. Cost and speed enter into your decision, but so does future selling price. I buy slabbed HOFs in part because I like the way they look, but also to guard against unclear condition from buying online, to avoid fakes, and long-term preservation. 95% of what I buy is PSA in part because I like having all the slabs look the same, but also because I feel PSA will hold value over time that I'm not sure of with the other companies. That said, I am too impatient to submit myself.

[ArmyDC]

Does everyone think Raw card prices are about to go down? If so, then a lot of the 2021 products about to be released may be over priced IMO..

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by ArmyDC

Does everyone think Raw card prices are about to go down? If so, then a lot of the 2021 products about to be released may be over priced IMO..

"Raw cards" is too generic of a blanket. It's likely a K shaped graph with "raw cards".

Premiere prospects/rookies raw will probably bump a bit raw. The lower tier guys will probably drop in raw form, as grading was baked into their price and that's off the table for the time being (I suspect permanently).

As always, it could turn out that nobody saw the future.

[pewe]

BTW I’ve wondered this for a while, and now doubly: is PSA was getting threatened with false advertising lawsuits / breach of contract for not delivering graded cards within their stated service level?

I wonder if they got pinched and are forced legally to shut down until they can actually commit to delivering on the service people purchase. Because if not, I wonder if it is possible that they’d be forced legally to give all the $$ back to their customers.


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[alphaomegas]

Originally Posted by ArmyDC

Does everyone think Raw card prices are about to go down? If so, then a lot of the 2021 products about to be released may be over priced IMO..

I hope so....so i will buy up all my favorite players who cares of little plastic slab around it LMBO. Since first card came out and until first slab came out was like 90+ years people still collected in that time.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by pewe

BTW I’ve wondered this for a while, and now doubly: is PSA was getting threatened with false advertising lawsuits / breach of contract for not delivering graded cards within their stated service level?

I wonder if they got pinched and are forced legally to shut down until they can actually commit to delivering on the service people purchase. Because if not, I wonder if it is possible that they’d be forced legally to give all the $$ back to their customers.


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There’s no guarantee on turnaround times. That is plainly stated on the terms and conditions.

[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by jduds

1. The times companies have included slabs in boxes they have not all been pristine, so I think you are right.

2. Why can't it be both. You decide you want your cards slabbed. Cost and speed enter into your decision, but so does future selling price. I buy slabbed HOFs in part because I like the way they look, but also to guard against unclear condition from buying online, to avoid fakes, and long-term preservation. 95% of what I buy is PSA in part because I like having all the slabs look the same, but also because I feel PSA will hold value over time that I'm not sure of with the other companies. That said, I am too impatient to submit myself.

I was simply highlighting how facetious his post was. I don’t necessarily disagree with you.

Right now I’m only buying slabs. I like having the protection and raw buying and selling is a pain right now. I only own PSA slabs and there are a couple reasons for that. Aesthetically I hate BGS and SGC slabs. Also if I’m spending my money I want the value to hold and I don’t feel like it is there with other slabs. That being said I think PSA is a poor company and run like crap and isn’t necessarily “better” than any other TPG, it just comes down to looks and $$$ for me.

[letsgocapitals]

Originally Posted by ArmyDC

Does everyone think Raw card prices are about to go down? If so, then a lot of the 2021 products about to be released may be over priced IMO..

Good question. Too many factors that influence raw card prices to determine what the BIGGEST drivers are.

Personally, I don't think it would wise to stock up on low value (less than $10) raw cards right now simply because we don't know if they're going raise prices again when they open back up. If others felt the same way, that would lower demand and raw resell prices would take a hit (good for hobbyists!). That's an investor's perspective... so it doesn't apply to everyone of course.

These next few months seem like a good opportunity to relax, strategically pick up mid-to-high end singles, and wait and see. Yeah, that's scared money talking!

[ArmyDC]

When I say raw cards, I’m talking just about 2021 products, if flippers that only care about ROI can’t use PSA then the current price of 21 products and even some 20 products are way overpriced. If you look at the presale prices of upcoming Basketball and Football releases how could someone pay for a spot in a break and not be able to submit that card to make back their money?

[k13]

Originally Posted by metsandweezer

PSA cards are about to explode.

Why?

There's already too many out there.

[Gridiron Bob]

Originally Posted by Randallk34

FINALLY!!!!

Now they just need to let the guy grading economy subs out of the dungeon they have him locked in so he can do his job.

Just as long as no one takes away his red stapler.

[epatmythes]

I had a really good time last night reading all the comments on PSA's insta, and that of several bulk submitters...

The thing that struck me the most, based solely on the comments/questions, was how was it even possible that PSA has such a backlog? I mean, where are all these people getting money to submit all these cards? The vast majority of these people appear far too stupid to actually have jobs that could support paying for grading!

I assume, the reality is, the announcement and the ensuing anger, misinformation, and general lack of common sense... is a perfect articulation of just how many idiots have joined the hobby solely on the premise of being able to make a fast buck.

I, personally, hope they truly are hurting as bad as they try to make themselves come off as being because of this... good riddance!

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by clocsta2323

Group subs is the sole cause of the backlog. Hopefully they abolish them when they open back up.

That won’t happen. In fact they would abolish single submitters before they got rid of group subs. Group subs make it 10x easier for PSA. 1 shipment instead 10-20-40-60-etc. Less time processing. Less time shipping. The paperwork and sub are exactly right. I would guess that most single subs (especially these days) has something wrong with it. Which in return slows down PSA, even more. Group subs are large, but those cards are going to PSA one way or the other. PSA would prefer them in groups.


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[NYRE2PECT]

I think there will still be a fair amount of volume that continues to flow in at the Super Express level and above. I mean if you have a $1k or $2k card, wouldn't it be absolutely worth the $300 for most who are desperate for cash? I think that there will be a fair amount of people roll up into the higher service level, and in turn, bake that cost into their eBay sales, and my assumption is that the people will pay the higher price.

It's a drug, and many people will want to hit it.

[prospectorgems]

As others had stated, I am not sure this really makes any difference that PSA halted receiving orders. If anyone sent anything in under the express level, the cards would just sit for a year plus regardless. The only change would be that they would be marked as "received" in the system. If people do not want to wait, they will go to the other companies regardless. Nothing changes. I now just hold onto all my cards for 3 months at home opposed to them sitting in PSA's warehouse for all those months.

I am sure there were quite a few people submitting at the express $150 level so that will hurt a little bit of course. Technically those are the only cards people should be submitting to other grading companies if they want them back faster, but who knows, probably won't and then get less value from their graded cards by grading with someone else.

[Cssll04]

Does anyone know if they will still update their "Complete Through Date" for the various services? No reason to think that they wouldn't but I wasn't sure if it was mentioned anywhere one way or the other.

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by CaliCollector87

This is actually a genius move by Nat. Shut down operations and shut up the competitors, and keep your highest clientele. Competitors wanted Psa volume now they're going to get it and wont be able to handle it. Tired of waiting a year for psa, Eventually wait a year for sgc, csg, bgs or get in a lottery for hga. Then after they're clogged open back up. Defensive and offensive move at the same time.

Ding, ding, ding. I can't believe only one person mentioned this. This is the perfect offensive and defensive move, as you've said.

PSA just shut down their business to kill off their competitors AND get backlogged cards to their customers sooner. Not only that, it also builds their brand and makes it even more "exclusive." If people think PSA were ill-equipped to handle the tsunami wave of cards coming at them, imagine what HGA, CSG, and SGC are thinking today - they're nervous AF. These companies have no time to build capacity in any way and they're about to get hammered by submissions from people who rely on the "grading flip" to make a living. No longer will PSA be the golden goose for these people - they want a big cut of those profits now.

If people just want to sit and complain about PSA, cool, but let me know how well you think these other companies are about to handle all of the Prizm bass coming at them.

This is genius move by Nat and PSA. The only thing they need to get sorted out is figuring out a submission level for folks on the registry who grade low-level cards that aren't 2019 Bol Bol base, but are actually for their registry collection.

[Midknight]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

The problem is, the turnaround time will NOT improve. In fact, for the bulk orders, it's going to get worse. Tens of millions of more cards will be backed up for submission and card companies have 50 more products to churn out over the next six months.

It's like they reduced a five lane traffic jam to one lane and told all the other commuters to stay at home. Problem is, when they open up the five lanes again in mid-2021, the number of commuters will be double.

They are creating a bottleneck effect cause the supply of cards can only continue to increase, they will NEVER catch up. Unless, of course, they regress into an inferior product and spend about 5 seconds per card or less.

This is correct. Temporarily halting new lower tier submissions only forces submitters to hold PSA's inventory for them for a period of time or force them to send those subs to a competitor, which will eventually have to do the same as PSA. Raising prices helps somewhat, but there has to be a ceiling to how far PSA can go with that tactic.

I think the real long-term solution is for PSA and other TPG's to not accept base (non-parallel) cards in the immediate 12-month period from their release. This will provide relief from the deluge of low-end base cards that immediate flood into TPG's upon release. This will also give collectors 12-months to figure out whether a card is worth grading or not instead of sending in loads of base cards in the hopes that a player pans out.

Expanding their facilities and hiring new people will also help, but how many people can they find with true hobby experience to "train" to grade your cards in a short period of time? This will just lead to an inferior product that many complain about already.