Is FANATICS in over their head?

[notoriousrmb]

The hobby is fine.

Most people are not angry at Fanatics, nor do they care Topps is owned by Fanatics.

Every one of these threads is the same 10 angry people acting as if the world is ending and trying to speak for the hobby as a whole while screaming at clouds.

If they hobby were in trouble, you wouldn't see record crowds at the National. You wouldn't see local card shows. Ebay listings would plummet. Auctions houses would move on to other collectables. People would stop caring and sites like this would fold.

None of that is happening.

The only real change in the last year is that profits are down for people wanting to flip sports cards/boxes - these are the ones that are most angry.

You can yell about QC or delivery dates or whatever, but QC has been bad since 1952 - otherwise grading would be irrelevant. Yes it stinks we don't know release dates, but people will buy regardless because the hobby is thriving.

Sorry you cant make as much money selling baseball cards as you could years ago.

[mattglet]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

The hobby is fine.

Most people are not angry at Fanatics, nor do they care Topps is owned by Fanatics.

Every one of these threads is the same 10 angry people acting as if the world is ending and trying to speak for the hobby as a whole while screaming at clouds.

If they hobby were in trouble, you wouldn't see record crowds at the National. You wouldn't see local card shows. Ebay listings would plummet. Auctions houses would move on to other collectables. People would stop caring and sites like this would fold.

None of that is happening.

The only real change in the last year is that profits are down for people wanting to flip sports cards/boxes - these are the ones that are most angry.

You can yell about QC or delivery dates or whatever, but QC has been bad since 1952 - otherwise grading would be irrelevant. Yes it stinks we don't know release dates, but people will buy regardless because the hobby is thriving.

Sorry you cant make as much money selling baseball cards as you could years ago.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

The hobby is fine.

Most people are not angry at Fanatics, nor do they care Topps is owned by Fanatics.

Every one of these threads is the same 10 angry people acting as if the world is ending and trying to speak for the hobby as a whole while screaming at clouds.

If they hobby were in trouble, you wouldn't see record crowds at the National. You wouldn't see local card shows. Ebay listings would plummet. Auctions houses would move on to other collectables. People would stop caring and sites like this would fold.

None of that is happening.

The only real change in the last year is that profits are down for people wanting to flip sports cards/boxes - these are the ones that are most angry.

You can yell about QC or delivery dates or whatever, but QC has been bad since 1952 - otherwise grading would be irrelevant. Yes it stinks we don't know release dates, but people will buy regardless because the hobby is thriving.

Sorry you cant make as much money selling baseball cards as you could years ago.

Wax rippers. The most unhappiest group in the hobby. They want to pull massive value out of every box and pay $60 for it (which I guess you can’t blame them for). I stumbled across an old thread from 2015 where people were complaining about Prizm Football hobby boxes being $100. One person said, “This price is unsustainable!” and everyone seemed to agree with him.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

People have been mentioning this off-and-on since Fanatics bought Topps. It really should be taken seriously, because it's a strong indication of their business strategy. It's not about quality -- it's about branding and marketing. They really believe people will buy poor quality products if they have exclusive rights to make and sell them.

That's what happens when you have a company run by tech bros and their VC buddies....

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

Wax rippers. The most unhappiest group in the hobby. They want to pull massive value out of every box and pay $60 for it (which I guess you can’t blame them for).

Wrong....wrong....wrong...

What collectors want is to receive consistently decent value from EVERY box, as opposed to consistently getting taken to the cleaners on most boxes.

I'm fine paying $100 for a box and getting $80-90 of value from it....that's the price to be paid for the pleasure of opening the box yourself.

What I'm NOT fine with is paying $100 for a box and getting <$50 in value most of the time!

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

The hobby is fine.

Most people are not angry at Fanatics, nor do they care Topps is owned by Fanatics.

Every one of these threads is the same 10 angry people acting as if the world is ending and trying to speak for the hobby as a whole while screaming at clouds.

If they hobby were in trouble, you wouldn't see record crowds at the National. You wouldn't see local card shows. Ebay listings would plummet. Auctions houses would move on to other collectables. People would stop caring and sites like this would fold.

None of that is happening.

The only real change in the last year is that profits are down for people wanting to flip sports cards/boxes - these are the ones that are most angry.

You can yell about QC or delivery dates or whatever, but QC has been bad since 1952 - otherwise grading would be irrelevant. Yes it stinks we don't know release dates, but people will buy regardless because the hobby is thriving.

Sorry you cant make as much money selling baseball cards as you could years ago.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Wrong....wrong....wrong...

What collectors want is to receive consistently decent value from EVERY box, as opposed to consistently getting taken to the cleaners on most boxes.

I'm fine paying $100 for a box and getting $80-90 of value from it....that's the price to be paid for the pleasure of opening the box yourself.

What I'm NOT fine with is paying $100 for a box and getting <$50 in value most of the time!

You sound unhappy about the situation.

[BigRedMachine80]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

The hobby is fine.

Most people are not angry at Fanatics, nor do they care Topps is owned by Fanatics.

Every one of these threads is the same 10 angry people acting as if the world is ending and trying to speak for the hobby as a whole while screaming at clouds.

If they hobby were in trouble, you wouldn't see record crowds at the National. You wouldn't see local card shows. Ebay listings would plummet. Auctions houses would move on to other collectables. People would stop caring and sites like this would fold.

None of that is happening.

The only real change in the last year is that profits are down for people wanting to flip sports cards/boxes - these are the ones that are most angry.

You can yell about QC or delivery dates or whatever, but QC has been bad since 1952 - otherwise grading would be irrelevant. Yes it stinks we don't know release dates, but people will buy regardless because the hobby is thriving.

Things don't happen over night. Again, anyone thinking the hobby isn't in trouble, hasn't paid attention to what Fanatics does to everything it touches.

[notoriousrmb]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Wrong....wrong....wrong...

What collectors want is to receive consistently decent value from EVERY box, as opposed to consistently getting taken to the cleaners on most boxes.

I'm fine paying $100 for a box and getting $80-90 of value from it....that's the price to be paid for the pleasure of opening the box yourself.

What I'm NOT fine with is paying $100 for a box and getting <$50 in value most of the time!

Thats not the economy works.

If every box had $80-90 of AVERAGE value in it, the box price would be much higher than $100. People would pay more than that all day, buying bots and such to grab as much as possible. Unless you want every box to have $80-90 and NEVER more than that.

Please explain to me how you would make a product, take ANY product today, and show how you would make that scenario work.

Keep in mind licensing fees, production costs, shipping costs, taxes, scarcity of hits, ensuring there are enough valued cards to fill every box...oh and of course everyone has to be able to buy this product equally, I'm sure that's the biggest issue.

And saying "well block bots" isnt an answer, need to show HOW to block bots and the costs associated with that.

[notoriousrmb]

Originally Posted by BigRedMachine80

Things don't happen over night. Again, anyone thinking the hobby isn't in trouble, hasn't paid attention to what Fanatics does to everything it touches.

Ok - show me a failed Fanatics venture.

I'll be clear - I am NOT pro-fanatics nor do I approve of their monopoly.

But what have they done previously that has caused an entire industry to collapse?

[parkerj33]

I don't get all the angst about release dates. I get a list of upcoming topps release dates roughly every week from my disty and it shows their projected releases over the next 90 days. I get the same sort of listing for panini as well. I can't be the only one that gets this. Of course some of the dates move out....nothing new there...but really who cares?

[notoriousrmb]

Originally Posted by parkerj33

I don't get all the angst about release dates. I get a list of upcoming topps release dates roughly every week from my disty and it shows their projected releases over the next 90 days. I get the same sort of listing for panini as well. I can't be the only one that gets this. Of course some of the dates move out....nothing new there...but really who cares?

Because some people have to be angry over things they have no control over.

I agree with this, in the long run does it matter?

I would like to know what products are on the table for the year, but if we don't know that product X is releasing 4 months from now - what does it matter?

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

So what if some products sit weeks or months as long as they sell out? They obviously prefer to sell to more costumers than fewer ones who try to hoard.

Well funny you should say that as Im sure the products that don't sell are pulled, Topps Chrome Sapphire, and then sold at lower prices to the groups that already are getting by far the largest supply of every product. Therefore, selling it to less customers and for less money.

[glassofwater]

So when do we get that big announcement at the mint collective?

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

Thats not the economy works.

If every box had $80-90 of AVERAGE value in it, the box price would be much higher than $100. People would pay more than that all day, buying bots and such to grab as much as possible. Unless you want every box to have $80-90 and NEVER more than that.

Please explain to me how you would make a product, take ANY product today, and show how you would make that scenario work.

Keep in mind licensing fees, production costs, shipping costs, taxes, scarcity of hits, ensuring there are enough valued cards to fill every box...oh and of course everyone has to be able to buy this product equally, I'm sure that's the biggest issue.

And saying "well block bots" isnt an answer, need to show HOW to block bots and the costs associated with that.

There should be a thing as reasonable average return. Some boxes may only have a small amount but not the norm to get close to nothing. Basically every legalized form of gambling on earth has at least a 75% pay return. Most casino games are way higher than that. Thinking that it should be normal for card boxes to return 3-15% is ridiculous.

Talking about all those costs they have is ridiculous. Why do you think they used MSRP for years. Panini still uses and sells for 75-980% of MSRP for 98% of hobby products. That's the cost they have to charge to make a reasonable amount of profit. A regular buyer isn't buying pretty much anything now at MSRP. Much more likely you're paying several multiples more. Topps pretty much eliminated a real MSRP to sell most products at what they deem market price. Don't even get me started on Sapphire boxes with no autographs. Hundreds of dollars for 32 cards. What's 32 cards with no autograph cards cost them to make? Is it even $2 a box?

[Astros19]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

The hobby is fine.

Most people are not angry at Fanatics, nor do they care Topps is owned by Fanatics.

Every one of these threads is the same 10 angry people acting as if the world is ending and trying to speak for the hobby as a whole while screaming at clouds.

If they hobby were in trouble, you wouldn't see record crowds at the National. You wouldn't see local card shows. Ebay listings would plummet. Auctions houses would move on to other collectables. People would stop caring and sites like this would fold.

None of that is happening.

The only real change in the last year is that profits are down for people wanting to flip sports cards/boxes - these are the ones that are most angry.

You can yell about QC or delivery dates or whatever, but QC has been bad since 1952 - otherwise grading would be irrelevant. Yes it stinks we don't know release dates, but people will buy regardless because the hobby is thriving.

Sorry you cant make as much money selling baseball cards as you could years ago.

Thank you. Standing ovation!
It's almost like "the sky is falling" crowd wants the hobby to crash.
Negativity overload.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

There should be a thing as reasonable average return. Some boxes may only have a small amount but not the norm to get close to nothing. Basically every legalized form of gambling on earth has at least a 75% pay return. Most casino games are way higher than that. Thinking that it should be normal for card boxes to return 3-15% is ridiculous.

Using the legalized gambling example, that means that some boxes will have little to no return. Sometimes when you buy a lottery ticket you get 0% return. For every box that has over the 75% return, you need a box that is under. If you're asking for a reasonable average return, you have to base it off of the entire production run of the product,

Do you know how many junk hits it takes to average out that 1/1 auto of the biggest rookie in the product to a 75% pay return?

[Bcr]

Originally Posted by Astros19

Thank you. Standing ovation!
It's almost like "the sky is falling" crowd wants the hobby to crash.
Negativity overload.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

Thankfully I don't really see too much of the negativity outside of this forum.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Using the legalized gambling example, that means that some boxes will have little to no return. Sometimes when you buy a lottery ticket you get 0% return. For every box that has over the 75% return, you need a box that is under. If you're asking for a reasonable average return, you have to base it off of the entire production run of the product,

Do you know how many junk hits it takes to average out that 1/1 auto of the biggest rookie in the product to a 75% pay return?

Im basing it mostly around casino games. Where the return is way better than 75%. You're not going to get a 0% return there very often. You're not going to only get a 5-15% return very often either. It certainly isn't the norm like opening most hobby boxes now. What are the odds you double your money in the casino versus double your money opening a box of cards? It's not even remotely close. Before Covid you had a decent shot because almost everything was at, below, or barely above MSRP You had a reasonable chance getting ahead by grading. Now nothing worth getting is MSRP or below, grading standards are way higher, card quality is much worse. Yet the vast majority of singles sell for around the same now. Actually 2020 and beyond base and unnumbered prizms/refractors probably sell for less in most cases than pre Covid.

But lets take your scratch off example. There are many products where the #1 hit in the entire product isn't even worth $10,000. Let alone a random 1/1. The best example I saw was the Kenny Pickett Panini Black NFL Shield auto 1/1 sold for barely $2000. At the time that covered maybe 6 boxes. The #1 non Brock Purdy card in that entire product covered a whole 6 boxes. Brock Purdy isn't in Immaculate. It was $1500 a box at one point. How much you think the #1 card in that product is worth? What percentage of those boxes will have less than $200 worth of cards in them?

[BigRedMachine80]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

Ok - show me a failed Fanatics venture.

I'll be clear - I am NOT pro-fanatics nor do I approve of their monopoly.

But what have they done previously that has caused an entire industry to collapse?

Enough with the hyperbole, no one is talking about a collapse. We're talking about diminished quality that will inherently cause many to leave much like the junk wax era did. QC has always been iffy but it's already getting worse in the short time they took over, and you can expect as much as they continue to cut corners in an effort to squeeze more dollars out of the product like they did with MLB and NHL apparel licensing. They are notorious for lowering quality to make more money.

You don't have to take my word for it, feel free to google anything fanatics clothing / apparel wise and you'll find no shortage of rage over what they've done. Watching this unfold the last few years has me worried about what they're going to do to our hobby.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Im basing it mostly around casino games. Where the return is way better than 75%. You're not going to get a 0% return there very often. You're not going to only get a 5-15% return very often either. It certainly isn't the norm like opening most hobby boxes now. What are the odds you double your money in the casino versus double your money opening a box of cards? It's not even remotely close. Before Covid you had a decent shot because almost everything was at, below, or barely above MSRP You had a reasonable chance getting ahead by grading. Now nothing worth getting is MSRP or below, grading standards are way higher, card quality is much worse. Yet the vast majority of singles sell for around the same now. Actually 2020 and beyond base and unnumbered prizms/refractors probably sell for less in most cases than pre Covid.

But lets take your scratch off example. There are many products where the #1 hit in the entire product isn't even worth $10,000. Let alone a random 1/1. The best example I saw was the Kenny Pickett Panini Black NFL Shield auto 1/1 sold for barely $2000. At the time that covered maybe 6 boxes. The #1 non Brock Purdy card in that entire product covered a whole 6 boxes. Brock Purdy isn't in Immaculate. It was $1500 a box at one point. How much you think the #1 card in that product is worth? What percentage of those boxes will have less than $200 worth of cards in them?

Do you realize how much you have to play before those rates of return your talking about normalize? Opening one box or one pack would be equal to one spin or one hand. There's going to be times that your return is nothing. Opening one box is not the comparison to any entire trip to the casino. There are more people that walk out of the casino a loser than there are that walk out a winner. Same thing with gambling on busting wax.

Average payout for roulette is about 95%. That means for every single number bet that wins at 35:1, they would average 37 bets of the same amount that lost.

I think you are trying to say that the minimum return should be around that 75% (or whatever number you think). If that is the minimum, that means your average return would be higher than 100%.

And if you're going to talk about the rate of return on a product, you have to look at every card in the entire run. Not just one card from the pack or one box from the case or one case from all of the cases.

[Flip024]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

...If every box had $80-90 of AVERAGE value in it, the box price would be much higher than $100.

I'd gladly take a 50% return on boxes. What we're getting now isn't even close to that

[JRX]

Are the hits even really "hits" anymore? How many "numbered to 25" cards does each player have in a year now?

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Do you realize how much you have to play before those rates of return your talking about normalize? Opening one box or one pack would be equal to one spin or one hand. There's going to be times that your return is nothing. Opening one box is not the comparison to any entire trip to the casino. There are more people that walk out of the casino a loser than there are that walk out a winner. Same thing with gambling on busting wax.

Average payout for roulette is about 95%. That means for every single number bet that wins at 35:1, they would average 37 bets of the same amount that lost.

I think you are trying to say that the minimum return should be around that 75% (or whatever number you think). If that is the minimum, that means your average return would be higher than 100%.

And if you're going to talk about the rate of return on a product, you have to look at every card in the entire run. Not just one card from the pack or one box from the case or one case from all of the cases.

Difference being if you open wax at distributor manipulated prices you have barely any chance of coming out ahead. Casino and other legalized forms of gambling it's so much astronomically higher odds of winning I wouldn't even know where to start if you can't understand this. Opening boxes at inflated costs and buying into breaks are the worst forms of gambling on earth. There is nothing close to them.

You're making my point for me with the roulette analogy. What in sports card wax comes even within the vicinity of a 95% return on average?

I'd love to hear someone make a case for any new product having more or equal to card value in the boxes than current wax costs for every box of that product. Care to make the case? Is there even one that is 50%? You could make a case for 50% on 20-21 Flawless if you wanted to base it off current wax prices and not what prices were at when the Lebron triple logoman and Warriors triple logoman were pulled. But of course if you go off what prices were when those cards were still in boxes wax costs still way higher.

[seanbros55]

Originally Posted by JRX

Are the hits even really "hits" anymore? How many "numbered to 25" cards does each player have in a year now?

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This, along with HORRIBLE QC, are the elephants in the room.