2022 Topps Chrome Baseball Pre Sale.. thoughts?

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Since Topps won’t speak, here’s what I think happened.

Remember when the release date got pushed back to late October? Then was magically bumped to mid September. The late October bump was probably due to the extra time needed to print the extended base SPs. Someone at Topps then decided that those cards either wouldn’t be made, or would be inserted in a different product. The product could now be released earlier. The only problem is that nobody told the checklist pdf guy, and the cards weren’t removed from the released checklist.

Now Topps has no idea what to say because they never admit mistakes they make.

Yes, this is likely what happened.

Topps just needs to admit their mistake and get a pass.

When’s the next chrome break, I need to sign up!

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by banosd

Mine are still processing, maybe they are finishing printing up the missing rookies to put into it.

Yes…… just maybe…..

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Since Topps won’t speak, here’s what I think happened.

Remember when the release date got pushed back to late October? Then was magically bumped to mid September. The late October bump was probably due to the extra time needed to print the extended base SPs. Someone at Topps then decided that those cards either wouldn’t be made, or would be inserted in a different product. The product could now be released earlier. The only problem is that nobody told the checklist pdf guy, and the cards weren’t removed from the released checklist.

Now Topps has no idea what to say because they never admit mistakes they make.

Reasonable guess

[Chrominator]

Originally Posted by cp312

Maybe not, but last year...

we don't talk about bruno

[cj828282]

If any SKU has the ESP's probably the lite boxes since those are an online exclusive and probably use a different printer (ala Finest Flashbacks). Can turn around faster but this is just a guess. Just not sure why would be included on the checklist and then nothing.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by cj828282

If any SKU has the ESP's probably the lite boxes since those are an online exclusive and probably use a different printer (ala Finest Flashbacks). Can turn around faster but this is just a guess. Just not sure why would be included on the checklist and then nothing.

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[LVDan]

Not saying anything by Topps ensures that each format will be feverishly ripped in search of these SPs. Only after the last sku has hit the streets will they address this(if ever).

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by LVDan

Not saying anything by Topps ensures that each format will be feverishly ripped in search of these SPs. Only after the last sku has hit the streets will they address this(if ever).

Keep on ripping open all the Wonka Bars, until we find the one with golden ticket, ‘eh?

[yodastories]

Devil's advocate here, but a short print could technically be as low as one card, no? Maybe the SPs are 1/1s.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by yodastories

Devil's advocate here, but a short print could technically be as low as one card, no? Maybe the SPs are 1/1s.

( that would be a Superfractor )

[yodastories]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

( that would be a Superfractor )

2/2 then.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by yodastories

Devil's advocate here, but a short print could technically be as low as one card, no? Maybe the SPs are 1/1s.

That’s correct, but would be out of line with historical standards for these sorts of cards. Even something like /100 would be absurdly low.

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by LVDan

Strider too. The lack of decent 2nd tier base(non auto)RCs is the biggest problem with this product IMO. We knew there would be a million autos and redemptions but not getting the ref, prism, pink cards of guys listed above is what really drops the floor way way down to almost unbreakable at any level.
Golden ticket autos are great but in the past you’d still get a chocolate bar. Looks more like an empty wrapper this year.


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Originally Posted by cardsin47

Keep up ripping open all the Wonka Bars, until we find the one with golden ticket, ‘eh?

Great reference!

[atk825]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

There is no fraud legally because the checklist is always subject to change.

They don’t audit from a third party the contents of every product that is released to confirm and verify content. Good luck with that ever happening.

I am saying in theory if all information is known and there's an email (which honestly probably exists) directing to keep the checklist with cards they knowingly didn't include. It's never going to happen. Just saying if it did.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Since Topps won’t speak, here’s what I think happened.

Remember when the release date got pushed back to late October? Then was magically bumped to mid September. The late October bump was probably due to the extra time needed to print the extended base SPs. Someone at Topps then decided that those cards either wouldn’t be made, or would be inserted in a different product. The product could now be released earlier. The only problem is that nobody told the checklist pdf guy, and the cards weren’t removed from the released checklist.

Now Topps has no idea what to say because they never admit mistakes they make.

"The checklist guy" knew. Just like BB/BH these things are double-checked and don't occur without sign-off from higher ups.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Like I said, so topps will shortly announce their mistake, that the sp cards didn’t make it in the product or they were accidentally released on the checklist or whatever, then have another bonus pack program for a future product - easy fix that has calmed down the masses like they’ve done multiple times before.

And people will continue to allow them to do this without speaking with their true weapon - your wallet.

No they won't.

[Boredlawyer]

Serious question--based on Topps' and their customer service's complete and utter failure over the past decade to show customers an iota of respect or transparency, how can anyone that isn't totally insane legitimately believe that these cards are going to just end up in one offshoot of the distribution?

The Topps trick which has become standard practice over the last five-ish years is SPing the top players' rookie and prospect autograph (which presumably cost more to produce on a per card basis), to the point that it doesn't even appear that Jrod has base chrome autographs.

These guys know exactly how far their customers will crawl. Why keep giving Topps your money?

[hermanotarjeta]

If I were topps, if I got enough negative feedback from this situation, I would never release another checklist again prior to product release.

People are gonna buy regardless - why go through the hassle?

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

These guys know exactly how far their customers will crawl. Why keep giving Topps your money?

If you only collect licensed MLB Cards…. there is no other option. That’s the problem with monopolies ~ no competition = do whatever you want

[hermanotarjeta]

Great lesson learned here for newbie investor/flipper bois - promotional material and checklists mean squat. Don’t EVER base your pre-order purchases on pump material.

And definitely don’t base your pre-order purchases on pumpers - they WANT you to pay too much.

Unless you get in at the factory cost price, of course.

So many people are willing to overpay for sports cards boxes, but how many are willing to overpay for cars?

Be smart, don’t be a degenerate gambler.

I mean, did you really think this product wa going to run out? LOL

[GaryPayton]

Finding my PCs in color on ebay is great right now. Got a gold /50 via bid of my fav modern player for way less than some higher numbered parallels for BIN. Seems people are dumping cards to get back some money on these boxes.

[soicanbefree]

Originally Posted by Giancarlo27

2021 Chrome, with an absolutely horrible checklist with no autos close to the caliber of Franco/J-Rod, is still regularly moving for $150 per hobby box. You guys' weird fetish for seeing the prices collapsing to $100 simply will not happen, it's pure fantasy.

In the end it comes down to a few different factors.

1) Supply .. how much more was printed? How was the rate of absorption relative to the supply/demand?

Completely made up numbers. Let's say Topps has sold 25% of 1,000,000 units and has 750,000 remaining for 2022. Last year they could have sold through 80% of 600,000 and only have 120,000 units remaining to try to hold the price on and slowly sell.

We are far more likely to be in a massive over supply / liquidation scenario.

2) Demand .. The Market .. one was released into a hot bubbling market one is being released into a steamy slowly cooling turd of a market. Certainly are less dollars available to chase bad products.

3) Expected Value: With the larger supply of worthless base/inserts and the beyond bloated auto checklist... EV should end up being lower per 22 TC Box than per 21 TC Box.

I don't know if 100 a hobby box is coming but I would not be surprised.

Breakers have been burned. FOMO gamblers have been burned. Wax investors could never buy at this price / this little value / redemptions...

So who is gonna buy this?

I would need it to be below 100 a hobby box and even then it would be pretty stupid IMO and I don't think I would do it.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

In the end it comes down to a few different factors.

1) Supply .. how much more was printed? How was the rate of absorption relative to the supply/demand?

Completely made up numbers. Let's say Topps has sold 25% of 1,000,000 units and has 750,000 remaining for 2022. Last year they could have sold through 80% of 600,000 and only have 120,000 units remaining to try to hold the price on and slowly sell.

We are far more likely to be in a massive over supply / liquidation scenario.

2) Demand .. The Market .. one was released into a hot bubbling market one is being released into a steamy slowly cooling turd of a market. Certainly are less dollars available to chase bad products.

3) Expected Value: With the larger supply of worthless base/inserts and the beyond bloated auto checklist... EV should end up being lower per 22 TC Box than per 21 TC Box.

I don't know if 100 a hobby box is coming but I would not be surprised.

Breakers have been burned. FOMO gamblers have been burned. Wax investors could never buy at this price / this little value / redemptions...

So who is gonna buy this?

I would need it to be below 100 a hobby box and even then it would be pretty stupid IMO and I don't think I would do it.

Yeah, if factory cost is indeed around $87.50, then hobby boxes can fall to $100 and someone is still making a profit.

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by cardsin47

If you only collect licensed MLB Cards…. there is no other option. That’s the problem with monopolies ~ no competition = do whatever you want

Only buy singles? Find someone else do to with your money?

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Only buy singles? Find someone else do to with your money?

I only buy sealed newly released Wax - mostly Baseball