Patrick Mahomes Prices

[tjforce]

Just some guidance for folks talking about Mahomes cards price trends:

There's not one 'Mahomes Market' in which all cards move homogenously based on his most recent play. A pop 3,106 PSA 9 2017 Prizm 269 is not going to behave the same way as a pop 4 PSA 10/10 2019 National Treasures RPA. A few major factors:

-Availability: Some cards can be bought any day of the week. Their prices will fluctuate more because of that. Others come up rarely or not at all. With those cards, buyers need to obtain them while they have the opportunity, because it might not be there later.

-Buyer pool: Very different people are trying to buy high-5 and 6-figure cards than 3 and 4 figure cards. Nobody is really looking for the quick flip on the higher end cards. They're usually buyers who have spend months or years looking for the card, and have deep pockets to buy and hold if they want/need.

I can tell you for a fact, losing the Super Bowl had absolutely no impact on the value of cards like the 2021 Black Finite or a 2019 Gold Vinyl PSA 10.

[KardsC1]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Just some guidance for folks talking about Mahomes cards price trends:

There's not one 'Mahomes Market' in which all cards move homogenously based on his most recent play. A pop 3,106 PSA 9 2017 Prizm 269 is not going to behave the same way as a pop 4 PSA 10/10 2019 National Treasures RPA. A few major factors:

-Availability: Some cards can be bought any day of the week. Their prices will fluctuate more because of that. Others come up rarely or not at all. With those cards, buyers need to obtain them while they have the opportunity, because it might not be there later.

-Buyer pool: Very different people are trying to buy high-5 and 6-figure cards than 3 and 4 figure cards. Nobody is really looking for the quick flip on the higher end cards. They're usually buyers who have spend months or years looking for the card, and have deep pockets to buy and hold if they want/need.

I can tell you for a fact, losing the Super Bowl had absolutely no impact on the value of cards like the 2021 Black Finite or a 2019 Gold Vinyl PSA 10.

Bingo ….cards like optic colors or priZm colors aren’t even in the same ball park as NT RPAs or contenders cracked ice, Prizm golds…high end stuff are like fine art..they don’t come up for sale often..when they do, they are still fought out for…these rare stuff are drying out and likely thru his career

[boxbuster7]

honestly his prizm silver is one of his worst cards imo due to the indentation problem

and psa 10 doesn't make a base card valuable imo - go for something limited instead

[slyguy]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

...and psa 10 doesn't make a base card valuable imo - go for something limited instead

Why?

So you don't have good comps or a liquid market when you want to sell?
The base Select or Optic or even other "lesser" base pro jersey Mahomes RCs are nice, and they sell with regularity and comps-a-plenty. If his price upticks keep going because he keeps winning and being popular, they will all be worth $1000+ psa 10... probably even raw.

The 2017 set isn't grossly overprinted like 2020+ sets are. Simply have a look at the pop reports.

Are Jordan '86 Fleer RCs or '00 Brady Bowman so bad because they're not numbered? What about a 2003 LeBron Topps? They're all "base card" nonsense? Cmon.

Face it: if Mahomes keeps doing well, there are going to be VERY few buyers and MANY fakes/shave/polish on the "limited" and autos and high end stuff (already have tons of fakes on the PM autos). Yes, there are even fake slabs. I'm not saying don't buy the high end on Mahomes, but there is fine value throughout. Each price category had their upside or downside; we see that with any GOAT type player.

For regular prospect and star and potential star players in newer years, I agree... you almost need to buy high end (#, auto, etc) as the overprinting and shipping fees and market flood assures anchoring on the values of base/common RC cards.

...But help yourself to just the "limited" Mahomes, scorn those who stack his base RCs... by all means. I will happily stick with many of my meager base and base-ish Mahomes RC cards.

[boxbuster7]

Are you aware of the printing defect on his 2017 prizm?

and just want to add your post just reads like one giant word salad

[Grave252]

Question for Mahomes collectors - is Immaculate like NT where the /99 can carry a premium over lower numbered versions? I hit a very nice Mahomes Immac RPA /25 in a BGS 8 (auto 10). I see an /99 SGC 8 sold for $6,500 the week of the Superbowl, but presuambly comps are down 15-20%. Doesn't seem to be a lot of sales for these so trying to figure out what ballpark my /25 is.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Grave252

Question for Mahomes collectors - is Immaculate like NT where the /99 can carry a premium over lower numbered versions? I hit a very nice Mahomes Immac RPA /25 in a BGS 8 (auto 10). I see an /99 SGC 8 sold for $6,500 the week of the Superbowl, but presuambly comps are down 15-20%. Doesn't seem to be a lot of sales for these so trying to figure out what ballpark my /25 is.

2 things:

Which version is it that you have? Is card #104 or one of the other versions?



Next, I wouldn't assume that prices on a card like this are down linearly compared to the common stuff like Prizm, etc.

[Grave252]

Originally Posted by tjforce

2 things:

Which version is it that you have? Is card #104 or one of the other versions?


Next, I wouldn't assume that prices on a card like this are down linearly compared to the common stuff like Prizm, etc.

Yeah it's #104. It's actually this exact card, so a good baseline comp although Covid comps are tough. How has the Mahomes market developed since then?

https://www.fanaticscollect.com/week...lLgsUFZeBRG_oP

[CorndogWasp]

I asked AI.

"During the peak, around mid-2021, Mahomes rookie cards hit insane highs. The crown jewel, a 2017 Panini National Treasures NFL Shield Rookie Auto 1/1, sold for $4.3 million in July 2021—still the record for an NFL card. Other high-end cards, like the 2017 Panini Prizm Gold Vinyl /5 PSA 10, fetched over $577,000 around that time, and the 2017 Contenders Rookie Ticket Auto PSA 10 was pulling in $20,000-$30,000+. Even more accessible cards, like the 2017 Donruss Rated Rookie PSA 10, soared to around $1,500-$2,000 at the height.

Since then, the market has pulled back. That same Contenders Rookie Ticket Auto PSA 10, for instance, has dropped to about $15,000-$20,000 in recent 2024 sales—a decline of roughly 33%-50% from its $30,000 peak. The 2017 Donruss Rated Rookie PSA 10 now hovers around $800-$1,000, down 50%-60% from its $2,000 high. Rarer cards have seen softer drops; a 2017 National Treasures RPA /10 (not the 1/1) sold for $173,240 in July 2024, compared to similar cards hitting $300,000+ in 2021, suggesting a 40%-50% dip. Lower-end base cards, like the 2017 Prizm Silver PSA 10, went from $5,000-$7,000 in 2021 to $2,000-$3,000 now, a 50%-60% decline."

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Grave252

Yeah it's #104. It's actually this exact card, so a good baseline comp although Covid comps are tough. How has the Mahomes market developed since then?

https://www.fanaticscollect.com/week...lLgsUFZeBRG_oP

That Gold certainly has a premium to the /99 version... because it's Gold and it's the parallel outside of the 1/1. How much of a premium? I'm not sure. Anywhere from 1.25 to 1.75 what the /99 goes for maybe?

Immaculate RPA is tough that year because there are almost no Mint Mahomes cards. Just 1 BGS 9.0 and no PSA 9s. And that depresses the entire market for these because none of the real big time buyers want to go pay up for a PSA 8 or BGS 8.5.

That being said, your Gold is a nice collector's card. Don't let anyone tell you it's worth less than the base /99.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by CorndogWasp

I asked AI.

"During the peak, around mid-2021, Mahomes rookie cards hit insane highs. The crown jewel, a 2017 Panini National Treasures NFL Shield Rookie Auto 1/1, sold for $4.3 million in July 2021—still the record for an NFL card. Other high-end cards, like the 2017 Panini Prizm Gold Vinyl /5 PSA 10, fetched over $577,000 around that time, and the 2017 Contenders Rookie Ticket Auto PSA 10 was pulling in $20,000-$30,000+. Even more accessible cards, like the 2017 Donruss Rated Rookie PSA 10, soared to around $1,500-$2,000 at the height.

Since then, the market has pulled back. That same Contenders Rookie Ticket Auto PSA 10, for instance, has dropped to about $15,000-$20,000 in recent 2024 sales—a decline of roughly 33%-50% from its $30,000 peak. The 2017 Donruss Rated Rookie PSA 10 now hovers around $800-$1,000, down 50%-60% from its $2,000 high. Rarer cards have seen softer drops; a 2017 National Treasures RPA /10 (not the 1/1) sold for $173,240 in July 2024, compared to similar cards hitting $300,000+ in 2021, suggesting a 40%-50% dip. Lower-end base cards, like the 2017 Prizm Silver PSA 10, went from $5,000-$7,000 in 2021 to $2,000-$3,000 now, a 50%-60% decline."

Not terrible, but behind the times on recent comps. And I don't know what it's talking about with the Contenders Autos. Recent sales history on those:

March 13: $44k
Feb 1: $50k
Jan 23: $48k
Dec 19: $66k
Dec 7: $44K
Oct 27: $35K
May 2023: $38K
Feb 2023: $38K
Jan 2023: $30K
Jan 2023: $28K
Nov 2023: $28K
Aug 2022: $30K

Copies in 2021 ranged from $60k-$90k

It's just wildly off on it's tracking of that card.

[pejc300]

Originally Posted by tjforce

hahahahahaha

[jacksonjj]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Just some guidance for folks talking about Mahomes cards price trends:

There's not one 'Mahomes Market' in which all cards move homogenously based on his most recent play. A pop 3,106 PSA 9 2017 Prizm 269 is not going to behave the same way as a pop 4 PSA 10/10 2019 National Treasures RPA. A few major factors:

-Availability: Some cards can be bought any day of the week. Their prices will fluctuate more because of that. Others come up rarely or not at all. With those cards, buyers need to obtain them while they have the opportunity, because it might not be there later.

-Buyer pool: Very different people are trying to buy high-5 and 6-figure cards than 3 and 4 figure cards. Nobody is really looking for the quick flip on the higher end cards. They're usually buyers who have spend months or years looking for the card, and have deep pockets to buy and hold if they want/need.

I can tell you for a fact, losing the Super Bowl had absolutely no impact on the value of cards like the 2021 Black Finite or a 2019 Gold Vinyl PSA 10.

That's a misleading truth, although it is technically correct.

Saying the value of cards didn't drop after a super bowl loss is different from saying the value after a loss compared to the value after a potential win is a huge drop.

From that perspective cards have dropped 50% already. The value of a PSA 10 silver after a win would've been hyped to the moon and back and valued at roughly $8k. The value now after a loss is roughly 4k. That's a huge drop if you look at it from that perspective. And that works the same way all the way up to high end gold prizms and NTs too. The prices on those cards would've been enormous right now had they won.

[jacksonjj]

Originally Posted by Grave252

Question for Mahomes collectors - is Immaculate like NT where the /99 can carry a premium over lower numbered versions? I hit a very nice Mahomes Immac RPA /25 in a BGS 8 (auto 10). I see an /99 SGC 8 sold for $6,500 the week of the Superbowl, but presuambly comps are down 15-20%. Doesn't seem to be a lot of sales for these so trying to figure out what ballpark my /25 is.

No. There aren't enough buyers to keep the /99 inflated higher against the lower numbers.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by jacksonjj

That's a misleading truth, although it is technically correct.

Saying the value of cards didn't drop after a super bowl loss is different from saying the value after a loss compared to the value after a potential win is a huge drop.

From that perspective cards have dropped 50% already. The value of a PSA 10 silver after a win would've been hyped to the moon and back and valued at roughly $8k. The value now after a loss is roughly 4k. That's a huge drop if you look at it from that perspective. And that works the same way all the way up to high end gold prizms and NTs too. The prices on those cards would've been enormous right now had they won.

No, I was literally telling you that the value on the 2021 Black Finite and a 2019 Gold Vinyl PSA 10 had no change from before the Super Bowl to after the Super Bowl. It wasn't a theoretical exercise, it was two very high end collectors that needed those specific cards and I was the only one who had them.

That's how the high end market differs from what you see on ebay. When you have the monopoly you get to name your price.

[jacksonjj]

Originally Posted by tjforce

No, I was literally telling you that the value on the 2021 Black Finite and a 2019 Gold Vinyl PSA 10 had no change from before the Super Bowl to after the Super Bowl. It wasn't a theoretical exercise, it was two very high end collectors that needed those specific cards and I was the only one who had them.

That's how the high end market differs from what you see on ebay. When you have the monopoly you get to name your price.

So you pick out 2 cards out of 30,000? That is as unrepresentative of the market as possible. It's also the flip side of the same coin I was addressing. You choose to look at the data with glass half full. I chose to look at the same data with glass half empty. Both ways are technically correct.

[MyckKabongo]

Pretty disingenuous to claim Mahomes card prices are uniquely beaten down. Jayden Daniels and Josh Allen are down too by as much if not more. It's mostly seasonal effects.

[Brazenways]

The point being made is that the Mahomes market is K-shaped. The lower echelon (30,000) is adversely impacted by both recency bias and seasonal trends. The upper arm (echelon) of what may be 100-200 cards are impervious to the larger volatility of the market.

Having said that I don’t think it’s a true “K” specific to the upper arm. I do think those cards are ultimately impacted in those corner cases (capital R), injury, off-field issues etc. losing a SB is not an extreme case but going 2-15 will absolutely cause discomfort (again extreme case).

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by tjforce

No, I was literally telling you that the value on the 2021 Black Finite and a 2019 Gold Vinyl PSA 10 had no change from before the Super Bowl to after the Super Bowl. It wasn't a theoretical exercise, it was two very high end collectors that needed those specific cards and I was the only one who had them.

That's how the high end market differs from what you see on ebay. When you have the monopoly you get to name your price.

tell us what you traded for them please

[KardsC1]

Originally Posted by jacksonjj

That's a misleading truth, although it is technically correct.

Saying the value of cards didn't drop after a super bowl loss is different from saying the value after a loss compared to the value after a potential win is a huge drop.

From that perspective cards have dropped 50% already. The value of a PSA 10 silver after a win would've been hyped to the moon and back and valued at roughly $8k. The value now after a loss is roughly 4k. That's a huge drop if you look at it from that perspective. And that works the same way all the way up to high end gold prizms and NTs too. The prices on those cards would've been enormous right now had they won.

I agree…had Mahomes won 3 in a row, his cards would of been 30% up…and even more so with High end…having a 3 peat on his resume and 4 SBs by age of 29 would of been huge…that being said, I believe he can win at least 2 more and have steady gains thru his career for his card values

[boxbuster7]

I mean cards that rich people who don't care about how much they're spending want probably won't drop

[slyguy]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

I mean cards that rich people who don't care about how much they're spending want probably won't drop

Yep. Barring a major injury to Mahomes or major drought of SB/MVP runs, those will stay up simply due to low supply.

Cards with ample supply (most Mahomes base RCs... Donruss, Optic, Panini base, Contenders, etc etc) are where buyers can pit sellers against one another in offseason or down market - or the opposite in a hot market.

Originally Posted by MyckKabongo

Pretty disingenuous to claim Mahomes card prices are uniquely beaten down. Jayden Daniels and Josh Allen are down too by as much if not more. It's mostly seasonal effects.

Correctamundo. ^^^

Normal offseason drop in demand for all cards. Nothing new.
There will be a small peak around draft, then another lull until camp + preseason with news/coverage going again.
Preseason is generally the best time to sell (everyone thinks their team or their guy can win SB)... also playoffs for guys in them.

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by jacksonjj

That's a misleading truth, although it is technically correct.

Saying the value of cards didn't drop after a super bowl loss is different from saying the value after a loss compared to the value after a potential win is a huge drop.

From that perspective cards have dropped 50% already. The value of a PSA 10 silver after a win would've been hyped to the moon and back and valued at roughly $8k. The value now after a loss is roughly 4k. That's a huge drop if you look at it from that perspective. And that works the same way all the way up to high end gold prizms and NTs too. The prices on those cards would've been enormous right now had they won.

It's a stupid argument to begin with, how's a threepeat and smoked in the superbowl doesnr affect the price is beyond ridiculous

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by MyckKabongo

Pretty disingenuous to claim Mahomes card prices are uniquely beaten down. Jayden Daniels and Josh Allen are down too by as much if not more. It's mostly seasonal effects.

Uhhh, Allen didnt go down 40% idk what you are saying

[Delta5]

SAYING Mahomes price wont change despite SB humiliating loss and a threepeat is beyond delusional. It's like saying Mahomes can have losing season the rest of his career and his price wont drop (Which I'm willing to bet it will)