PITCHERS: Official Thread of the Hobby’s Outcast Position

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Fixed it for you

Should be a great race.

It will be interesting to see what voters base their votes on (or when they made up their minds). Both have very strong cases in their own way. I'm just going to enjoy it. I'm obviously biased toward Greene, but have always liked Sale and have been rooting for his comeback for years.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Should be a great race.

It will be interesting to see what voters base their votes on (or when they made up their minds). Both have very strong cases in their own way. I'm just going to enjoy it. I'm obviously biased toward Greene, but have always liked Sale and have been rooting for his comeback for years.

Hopefully they go by stats and metrics. Where Sale is leading is pretty much every single category.

If the season ended today, what would the argument be to give Greene the nod over Sale, outside of you being a Reds fan? Not taking anything away from Greene's season, he's been a stud. But I just don't see the argument for him over Sale. I'm also biased towards Sale

[towerymt]

Clase has a save on 4 straight days.

0.64 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, 37 Saves.

[hammertime]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Hopefully that go by stats and metrics. Where Sale is leading is pretty much every single category.

If the season ended today, what would the argument be to give Greene the nod over Sale, outside of you being a Reds fan? Not taking anything away from Greene's season, he's been a stud. But I just don't see the argument for him over Sale. I'm also biased towards Sale

It's definitely a tall order for Hunter this year...and that may be generous. But his time will come.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Hopefully they go by stats and metrics. Where Sale is leading is pretty much every single category.

If the season ended today, what would the argument be to give Greene the nod over Sale, outside of you being a Reds fan? Not taking anything away from Greene's season, he's been a stud. But I just don't see the argument for him over Sale. I'm also biased towards Sale

Greene is #1 in bWAR for NL pitchers. Greene has 5.3 and Sale has 4.4. That's not inconsequential. The rest of their traditional stats/metrics are very close across the board. It's clearly closer than you think (and Baseball Reference thinks it's not that close, in favor of Greene).

Of course, you realize I said he was the CYA winner tongue in cheek. But he is absolutely in the conversation right now. And a lot can happen in the next month and a half.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Greene is #1 in bWAR for NL pitchers. Greene has 5.3 and Sale has 4.4. That's not inconsequential. The rest of their traditional stats/metrics are very close across the board. It's clearly closer than you think (and Baseball Reference thinks it's not that close, in favor of Greene).

Of course, you realize I said he was the CYA winner tongue in cheek. But he is absolutely in the conversation right now. And a lot can happen in the next month and a half.

And the counter point, Sale is #1 in fWAR for all pitchers and leads Greene (who is actually #4 in the NL) 4.8 to 3.7.

I wasn't saying they weren't close, but Sale still leads him in nearly everything. So I do kind of wonder what BR is using that they have Greene so far ahead. It can't be because GABP is such a hitters' park, because Truist is right behind.

Speaking from my biased position, I would be outraged if the numbers stayed this way and Greene got any votes over Sale. Yes, a lot can happen, but I'd say it's Sale's to lose.

[ScooterD]

I would assume Sale is a lock for Comback POY, too - right?

I’d also love to hear about someone locking in CY odds for Sale during Spring Training or earlier. That would have to pay nicely!

[jcfill]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

I would assume Sale is a lock for Comback POY, too - right?

I’d also love to hear about someone locking in CY odds for Sale during Spring Training or earlier. That would have to pay nicely!

BigBobsCards on Twitter has a $50 ticket @ +5000 ($50 to win $2500) that he placed in November

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Hopefully they go by stats and metrics. Where Sale is leading is pretty much every single category.

If the season ended today, what would the argument be to give Greene the nod over Sale, outside of you being a Reds fan? Not taking anything away from Greene's season, he's been a stud. But I just don't see the argument for him over Sale. I'm also biased towards Sale

Not saying it’s a completely foolproof argument, but Sale doesn’t lead Greene by much in any of the major categories. In fact, Sale is probably one bad start away from falling to even with Greene.

And when factoring in that Greene pitches his home games in a park that’s not exactly known to be friendly to pitchers, his ERA is a lot more impressive.

Also, Cincinnati’s defense ranks toward the bottom in MLB in fielding percentage and range factor, while Atlanta’s defense ranks toward the top in both categories—suggesting that Greene might have an inferior defense behind him, and thus putting extra onus on his arm to prevent runs.

Of course, there’s still a quarter of the season left, and a lot can happen that would enable Greene to pull into the lead.


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[whitmm]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

Not saying it’s a completely foolproof argument, but Sale doesn’t lead Greene by much in any of the major categories. In fact, Sale is probably one bad start away from falling to even with Greene.

And when factoring in that Greene pitches his home games in a park that’s not exactly known to be friendly to pitchers, his ERA is a lot more impressive.

Also, Cincinnati’s defense ranks toward the bottom in MLB in fielding percentage and range factor, while Atlanta’s defense ranks toward the top in both categories—suggesting that Greene might have an inferior defense behind him, and thus putting extra onus on his arm to prevent runs.

Of course, there’s still a quarter of the season left, and a lot can happen that would enable Greene to pull into the lead.


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If you note my second comment on this, I noted that Truist Park is right behind GABP in terms of being hitter friendly.

If you also notice, I said as of right now. Just as Sale is a bad start away from it flipping, the same goes for Greene. Again, I said if they use stats and metrics. Yes, they are close, but Sale leads nearly every one of them. Just like NL MVP last year, Mookie was close, but Ronald was still ahead of him.

Greene has a worse FIP than Sale, so that means he's been worse at preventing runs with his arm. Greene leads the league in walks and hit batters.

I'll repeat, I think it's Sale's to lose.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by whitmm

If you note my second comment on this, I noted that Truist Park is right behind GABP in terms of being hitter friendly.

If you also notice, I said as of right now. Just as Sale is a bad start away from it flipping, the same goes for Greene. Again, I said if they use stats and metrics. Yes, they are close, but Sale leads nearly every one of them. Just like NL MVP last year, Mookie was close, but Ronald was still ahead of him.

Greene has a worse FIP than Sale, so that means he's been worse at preventing runs with his arm. Greene leads the league in walks and hit batters.

I'll repeat, I think it's Sale's to lose.

I wouldn't say it's Sale's to lose, but I agree he is easily the favorite as of this moment.

Why I say that is because Greene has been significantly better than Sale over the last month . His season trajectory is trending toward lower numbers, whereas Sale's is holding steady. When it's someone's to lose, it typically means they have to do something to screw it up. But I think if Greene continues having a 1.09 ERA the rest of the season, as he has the last month, and Sale stays the same (his has been 2.09 the last month, which is great), it's possible Greene passes him in every one of those categories Sale currently leads in, even without Sale having a bad outing to screw it up.

There's just too much season for it to be Sale's to lose. But yes, he is likely currently in the lead.

[StateEx]

Both are fun to watch, whoever wins, we win.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by StateEx

Both are fun to watch, whoever wins, we win.

Truth.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Nice to see Ragans look like Ragans again.

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by whitmm

If you note my second comment on this, I noted that Truist Park is right behind GABP in terms of being hitter friendly.

If you also notice, I said as of right now. Just as Sale is a bad start away from it flipping, the same goes for Greene. Again, I said if they use stats and metrics. Yes, they are close, but Sale leads nearly every one of them. Just like NL MVP last year, Mookie was close, but Ronald was still ahead of him.

Greene has a worse FIP than Sale, so that means he's been worse at preventing runs with his arm. Greene leads the league in walks and hit batters.

I'll repeat, I think it's Sale's to lose.

If you note, I qualified my statement by saying it’s not a foolproof argument. And if you also note, I was responding to your question. (Even though it was perhaps directed toward the Buckeye attorney, it seemed like a good topic to be discussed by all.)

Regarding FIP… It’s one of the most nonsensical stats in sports, right alongside BABIP. Something that purportedly measures luck is not a stat. “Measuring luck” is basically a paradox. Are there plays when a pitched appeared to get hosed by a bloop double or a swinging bunt? Sure. But luck has nothing to do with a pitcher hanging his curve, or struggling to stay low in the zone, or a manager leaving him in to face a lineup for a third time when he’s obviously wearing down.

Both stats completely discount the complexity of the pitcher-batter dynamic, as well as the many variables in a player’s existence. BABIP doesn’t explain why Vlad Jr. is killing the ball. It doesn’t account for his changes in batting stance, bat length, and better pitch selection.

And FIP doesn’t explain why or how a pitcher is having success. Christopher Sanchez has the third-lowest FIP in MLB, with a 2.79. His teammate, Aaron Nola, has a 4.06 FIP. Their ERAs are nearly identical (3.63 and 3.60, respectively). Meanwhile, teammate Zach Wheeler has a 3.43 FIP, which almost perfectly splits the FIPs of his teammates. And he has a far superior 2.78 ERA. They all have the same defense. What does it all mean???

(Hint: there are other factors in a pitcher’s success besides his supposed luck on balls in play.)

As far as Greene leading the NL in walks, it doesn’t really matter when his BAA is .185 and his SLG against is .300–both of which lead the league. I’d rather have the walks than hits. After all, hits do more damage. Just look at Snell last year, when he was the league leader in both ERA and BB.

Again, Sale and Greene are basically separated by one bad start. Sale might have a slight lead. But as the Lawyer said, it’s hardly Sale’s to lose at this stage.


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[KhalDrogo]

Buehler looks like he may never get back to his old self. Or maybe he does a Flaherty this offseason. Velocity down. Control bad. Breaking ball sharpness lost. Bums me out.

[whitmm]

Eye, I'm not quoting to eliminate the wall of text. I said as of right now, that is the key. I'm not talking about what could happen the rest of the season, so it doesn't matter that they are one bad start away from things changing.

FIP has nothing to do with luck. FIP eliminates any ball that needs to be fielded. ERA is the number that includes "luck" because it's the one that involves defenders getting to balls and making plays. BTW, having a team with a bad fielding percentage is beneficial for a pitcher's ERA

And once again, I asked what the argument would be to select Greene over Sale right now. Their two home parks are right next to each other in terms of being hitter friendly and Sale is leading Greene in pretty much everything.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Eye, I'm not quoting to eliminate the wall of text. I said as of right now, that is the key. I'm not talking about what could happen the rest of the season, so it doesn't matter that they are one bad start away from things changing.

You said it is Sale's to lose. That requires a consideration of what happens the rest of the season. Both Eye and I were merely stating that it is not Sale's to lose. Being someone's to lose implies as long as they don't crash and burn they cruise to the win. Whereas, this race is close enough, and Greene is on such a tear, that Sale could keep putting up the exact numbers he has all year, and Greene could pass him.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by whitmm

FIP eliminates any ball that needs to be fielded.

Which is an absurd way to evaluate a pitcher. It basically attempts to eliminate the actual game of baseball and a major part of pitching strategy from the equation.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

You said it is Sale's to lose. That requires a consideration of what happens the rest of the season. Both Eye and I were merely stating that it is not Sale's to lose. Being someone's to lose implies as long as they don't crash and burn they cruise to the win. Whereas, this race is close enough, and Greene is on such a tear, that Sale could keep putting up the exact numbers he has all year, and Greene could pass him.

No, I very specifically made the comment asking as of right now, what argument is to be made for Greene. The original comment didn't say anything about it being Sale's to lose. That came in after you made a comment about there being a lot of season left.

And for that tear Greene has been on, Sale has the exact same fWAR over the last month. Which, if you'll recall, WAR (bWAR to be specific) was your argument for Greene over Sale at this moment.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Which is an absurd way to evaluate a pitcher. It basically attempts to eliminate the actual game of baseball and a major part of pitching strategy from the equation.

It's a fine metric to evaluate pitcher vs hitter. It eliminates the outside factors of a terrible outfield defense (like Sale has had to deal with all season) or a SS who leads the league in errors (like Greene has had to deal with). It's all about throwing strikes and avoiding bats.

I also made that comment in response to saying FIP said it measures luck, which is incorrect.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Seems like Skubal has the AL CY close to locked up? Do we feel like Burnes can still make a push for it? Is there another AL pitcher I’m forgetting?

[Rbradleigh]

Good pickup by Bryce Miller, as I’ve said a few times, when he’s on he’s really on.
This will be 4 out of last 6 starts without giving up a run. And 1 of those other 2 starts was still a “quality start.”

[dfenno]

I’m continually amazed how much these CY races can change in the final stretch of the season. Guys that seem to be locks are often far from it.

I’m a big fan of both Greene and Sale and will be very happy if they finish 1-2, regardless of order. I’d personally give Sale a slight edge right now but the momentum is with HG for sure.

I do think Sale will get the voters’ benefit of the doubt as he won’t have as many remaining chances and the comeback story is compelling.

Regardless, sit back and enjoy the race!

[eye4talent]

Welp, Greene’s Cy Young chances just plummeted. Hopefully “elbow soreness” isn’t what we all fear it could be.


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