The Official NBA Regular Season Thread—-21/22 Edition

[indyguy]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

I don’t want to discredit Jokic. Jokic belongs in the conversation based on individual performance, but I think him getting a repeat MVP without an absolutely dominant Denver record when it all shakes it out is a long shot. Especially with the competition Steph, KD, and Giannis are bringing while playing on true contenders.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is where I am at with it.

Anyone one of the four that gets it, I wouldn't argue the vote. But, all four are deserving of being in the conversation and that isn't debatable

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

No need. The argument isn't (from me anyway) that the voters will keep Jokic out of the hardware. The argument is that they'll absolutely vote for him.

This forum for one reason or another believes Denver is going to be separated from GSW/BKN/MIL by W-L record. I hate to break it to you all ... but they're not. Not by anything significant anyway.

If GSW wins 60 games and finishes with the 1 or 2 seed and Denver isn't top 4 it's over.

When was the last time someone won MVP from a team that wasn't a top 4 seed in their respective conference? I don't know the answer and I'm too lazy to look it up but probably been a while

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by daeve

where am I being illogical? Please explain Is it by thinking Murray coming back means more wins? By thinking BkRef's model [which factors in W-L] is decent enough to track?

because you know exactly how MVP voting works and you're just ignoring it purposely because Jokic is your guy.

It's a popularity contest and always has been. Has never been about who has the best statistical season.

[Zedlaw]

Jokic has got to be the front runner right now.

Big questions, are the Warriors or Bucks or Nets winning 63+ games
Will Jokic keep the Nuggets within 13 wins of the top teams.

I think Jokic wins on a 50 win team against a 63 win team. But that's the limit.

I wouldn't bet on the Nets winning 63+, maybe the Bucks but they already have a healthy amount of loses. And do the Warriors have enough juice, they are looking more worn this go around compared to the 73 win team. It's tough to get everyone's best shot every night. I know some argue every game is the same but come on, Curry is just happening to be slumping chasing a record. Is he pressing or opponents gearing up, or most likely both. This is why I rate winning so highly, the games just mean more. I also have no doubt Jokic will continue doing his thing.


MVP seasons where where top performer wasn't on a top team (I'll skip the close ones)

56 - PPG leader won versus WS at a 12 gm disadvantage but top team at only 0.625
60 - Wilts RY at 10 gm disadvantage against 0.787 top team
75 - McAdoo at -11 games, 0.732 top team (60 win pace)
76 - Kareem at -19 games, 0.720 top team
79 - WS at -7 games, 0.659 top team
82 - WS at -17 gm, 0.768 top team (63 win pace), Moses over young Bird
88 - Jordan at -12, 0.756 top team
17 - Westbrook year at 20 gm back

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

No need. The argument isn't (from me anyway) that the voters will keep Jokic out of the hardware. The argument is that they'll absolutely vote for him.

This forum for one reason or another believes Denver is going to be separated from GSW/BKN/MIL by W-L record. I hate to break it to you all ... but they're not. Not by anything significant anyway.

Seriously guys, go check out the schedules. It will save you the time of arguing from the POV that record will play a role. Denver has already played five road games vs. the top 3 in the West (one left), they have all 8 games left vs. SAC and OKC, three vs. NOP and HOU, two vs. DET etc. 13-9 w/ Jokic vs. that schedule, there's no reason to believe they won't finish with a .600 winning %.

The path for Jokic MVP is simply that nothing changes. And that is the most likely path right now.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by Zedlaw

Jokic has got to be the front runner right now.

Big questions, are the Warriors or Bucks or Nets winning 63+ games
Will Jokic keep the Nuggets within 13 wins of the top teams.

I think Jokic wins on a 50 win team against a 63 win team. But that's the limit.

I wouldn't bet on the Nets winning 63+, maybe the Bucks but they already have a healthy amount of loses. And do the Warriors have enough juice, they are looking more worn this go around compared to the 73 win team. It's tough to get everyone's best shot every night. I know some argue every game is the same but come on, Curry is just happening to be slumping chasing a record. Is he pressing or opponents gearing up, or most likely both. This is why I rate winning so highly, the games just mean more. I also have no doubt Jokic will continue doing his thing.


MVP seasons where where top performer wasn't on a top team (I'll skip the close ones)

56 - PPG leader won versus WS at a 12 gm disadvantage but top team at only 0.625
60 - Wilts RY at 10 gm disadvantage against 0.787 top team
75 - McAdoo at -11 games, 0.732 top team (60 win pace)
76 - Kareem at -19 games, 0.720 top team
79 - WS at -7 games, 0.659 top team
82 - WS at -17 gm, 0.768 top team (63 win pace), Moses over young Bird
88 - Jordan at -12, 0.756 top team
17 - Westbrook year at 20 gm back

If the target you've set is 63, the easiest path is GSW, but it still means they would have to finish the year 41-14. That's just not reality (for example). Expecting BKN or MIL to go 45-9 ... there's just no chance.

Getting to 60 wins will be incredibly difficult, PHX probably the best shot.

[indyguy]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Seriously guys, go check out the schedules. It will save you the time of arguing from the POV that record will play a role. Denver has already played five road games vs. the top 3 in the West (one left), they have all 8 games left vs. SAC and OKC, three vs. NOP and HOU, two vs. DET etc. 13-9 w/ Jokic vs. that schedule, there's no reason to believe they won't finish with a .600 winning %.

The path for Jokic MVP is simply that nothing changes. And that is the most likely path right now.

OK, but then the argument of Murray coming back and bolstering Denver's wins isn't helping Jokic's case.

Not that I've seen you make that argument, but it has been made in this thread.

[Dame]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

You believe the two-way race is between Durant and Curry as well?

With all respect to Jokic who's lapping the field in virtually every advance metric know out there, there's simply not a lot of buzz surrounding the Nuggets.


We can skip all the advance numbers. We both know that the media wouldn't touch those if it doesn't fit their juicy story. I think a straw poll is more indicative of how they view this race than crunching some numbers through analytics, lol. Sad but true.


"To gauge where the race stands roughly 30% into the season, ESPN asked 100 media members to participate in an informal poll that mimics the postseason award voting. To make the balloting as realistic as possible, there were at least two voters from each of the league's 28 markets, along with a cross-section of national and international reporters.

As with the NBA's official vote at the end of season, voters were asked to submit a five-player ballot, and results were tabulated using the league's scoring system: 10 points for each first-place vote, seven points for second, five points for third, three points for fourth and one point for fifth.

Curry (978 points) was followed by Brooklyn Nets forward Kevin Durant (610 points, two first-place votes) and Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (471 points, three first-place votes). Last year's MVP, Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (256 points), got the other first-place vote and came in fourth overall"



Unless Curry or Durant suffers a catastrophic injury or their respective team collapse, it's a 2 man race with Giannis playing third wheel since why not, he's likable and the leading defending champion.



FYI, I know you've brought up Curry's poor shooting numbers (and it's valid) but remember the last two non big men that won MVP were not exactly the model of efficiency when they took home the award (Westbrook, Harden)

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by indyguy

OK, but then the argument of Murray coming back and bolstering Denver's wins isn't helping Jokic's case.

Not that I've seen you make that argument, but it has been made in this thread.

I make the reverse argument. Murray will be a net negative, like Wiseman and Thompson. It's going to take months, and they'll be growing pains and reacclimating.

The selling point for Jokic right now is his consistency and Denver's schedule. A ton of games vs. the worst teams in the NBA and a healthy Jokic and it will take a monster record from someone else to rebut his back to back claim. I'm not ruling it out but again, the only reason Curry is in your mind today is because of GSW record. That's just not going to last, regression is going to happen.

And will lost COVID games, and will injury, and will rest on B2B etc. etc.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by Dame

Unless Curry or Durant suffers a catastrophic injury or their respective team collapse, it's a 2 man race with Giannis playing third wheel since why not, he's likable and the leading defending champion.

FYI, I know you've brought up Curry's poor shooting numbers (and it's valid) but remember the last two non big men that won MVP were not exactly the model of efficiency when they took home the award (Westbrook, Harden)

I'm not arguing against Curry at this very moment, I cannot ignore the Warriors win %. But there is a near 0% chance that % holds, or even comes close to holding. And on the contrary, I think everyone believes Jokic can actually keep this up.

Golden State is not going to finish with an .800 winning%. And they're not going to finish with a .700% either. So all the buzz around the Warriors and Curry is going to disappear as the losses bleed in.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

I'm not arguing against Curry at this very moment, I cannot ignore the Warriors win %. But there is a near 0% chance that % holds, or even comes close to holding. And on the contrary, I think everyone believes Jokic can actually keep this up.

Golden State is not going to finish with an .800 winning%. And they're not going to finish with a .700% either. So all the buzz around the Warriors and Curry is going to disappear as the losses bleed in.

Can you predict the future?

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Can you predict the future?

His entire argument is predicated on it, so I think so.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Can you predict the future?

No. I simply argue that the most likely outcome right now is Jokic MVP because he has shown nothing but consistency in his #'s since game one, and team records will converge as the schedules and challenges balance out.

And just to be clear, as I've said before, I recognize voters value W/L to a great deal but too many in here are stuck on recency bias and believe records will stay similar. The numbers suggest otherwise.

[Dame]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

I'm not arguing against Curry at this very moment, I cannot ignore the Warriors win %. But there is a near 0% chance that % holds, or even comes close to holding. And on the contrary, I think everyone believes Jokic can actually keep this up.

Golden State is not going to finish with an .800 winning%. And they're not going to finish with a .700% either. So all the buzz around the Warriors and Curry is going to disappear as the losses bleed in.

Yeah, the bar is pretty high. I think most folks expect them to sustain it especially with reinforcements coming in. I’m not so sure. It could change the dynamic of the team, especially since Klay hasn’t played a single minute in almost 2 seasons.


Winning B2B MVP is such a tall order. Could Jokic win it consecutively? If there’s one candidate built to beat the odds, I’ll take him.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

His entire argument is predicated on it, so I think so.

The opposite.

This model rests pretty close to where I do at the moment. Tell me, based on that projection, who wins MVP?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...a-predictions/

I think we all know the answer

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

The opposite.

This model rests pretty close to where I do at the moment. Tell me, based on that projection, who wins MVP?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...a-predictions/

I think we all know the answer

It’s all about narrative.

Steph is by far a more likeable player and Jokic has been painting himself as a villain with all these techs and ejections. Whether they were deserved or not and whether he gets fouled or not is irrelevant because voters aren’t gonna go back and watch the film.

If the warriors win 60+ And Denver doesn’t win at least 50 its over.

Also not surprising you picked the raptor player model and not the ELO model (which is more relevant with context). ELO model has Warriors at 58 and Nuggets at 46 which would be a no contest.

[pingbling23]

It’s just hard to fathom you have to sit the league mvp for a defensive stand in a tight game. As we saw last night.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

It’s all about narrative.

Steph is by far a more likeable player and Jokic has been painting himself as a villain with all these techs and ejections. Whether they were deserved or not and whether he gets fouled or not is irrelevant because voters aren’t gonna go back and watch the film.

If the warriors win 60+ And Denver doesn’t win at least 50 its over.

Also not surprising you picked the raptor player model and not the ELO model (which is more relevant with context). ELO model has Warriors at 58 and Nuggets at 46 which would be a no contest.

Not intentional. I would say the very same thing if Denver wins 46 and GSW wins 58. And it's not close (and it will break you!).

I recognize the narrative you're talking about and I agree. But as it plays for MVP, the numbers of Jokic with a PER of 33 and 26/14/7 on 58% shooting and carrying his team to a top 4 seed is just going to be a lot of Nick Wright "worst blah blah blah" and then 95 1st place votes.

[Kingofkings1281]

So it appears that the Lakers are already trying to move Westbrook. Didn’t see it coming this quick.

[pingbling23]

Originally Posted by Kingofkings1281

So it appears that the Lakers are already trying to move Westbrook. Didn’t see it coming this quick.

Link?

[Kingofkings1281]

Originally Posted by pingbling23

Link?

https://uproxx.com/dimemag/lakers-ru...l-discussions/

[GOATcards]

It really is silly to deny an individual award to someone whose numbers say they're blowing away the league and setting all-time marks no less. (Joker is way ahead of #2 all-time in single-season BPM. So far.)

And winning the MVP or no, if Joker doesn't get the maximum vote share that a #2 MVP finisher can get, somewhere around .7-.8, then the voters are morons.

[pingbling23]

Originally Posted by Kingofkings1281

https://uproxx.com/dimemag/lakers-ru...l-discussions/

I looked up several articles. “Internal discussions “ lol. I sure hope there won’t be any Westbrook for Simmons or Westbrook for love/Rubio trades. I doubt they trade him. I guess if you’re not having internal discussions on ways you can possibly improve your team then you’re not doing your job.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by pingbling23

I looked up several articles. “Internal discussions “ lol. I sure hope there won’t be any Westbrook for Simmons or Westbrook for love/Rubio trades. I doubt they trade him.

There is a 0% chance Cleveland trades for WB. But yea I mean, who would trade for him anyways?

[pingbling23]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

There is a 0% chance Cleveland trades for WB. But yea I mean, who would trade for him anyways?

Vice versa. But yeah, he’s getting paid way to much at this stage. I think everyone would agree he shouldn’t be the fourth highest paid player in the league. And dang John wall is the third highest. Nba just throwing away millions.