The Price Index Carnage Is Real

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by premium1981

I didn't retract anything. I never said or quoted anything about $600.

Ok.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Ok.

Care to show me where I did? Not what someone else said or quoted. Me. It didn't happen.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by premium1981

I lose brain cells when I engage with you. As I just stated, I never quoted or said anything about $600. I replied to a post where I saw someone talking about the price of these boxes and I made a general statement saying they would not go down. Simple as that. And then you felt the need to do what you do. I'm moving on. Carry on with your nonsense.

You came looking for me, I didn’t engage you.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Care to show me where I did? Not what someone else said or quoted. Me. It didn't happen.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Care to show me where I did? Not what someone else said or quoted. Me. It didn't happen.

You direct replied to a guy who was replying to a quote stating prices would come down from $600. That may not have been what you meant, but that’s your fault for not reading what you were piggybacking on.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Juan Soto's market is a highly idiosyncratic one. There are a bunch of unique factors -

1) He was one of the four horsemen of the apocalypse in the COVID baseball market (with Acuna, VGJ, and Tatis) and has always had psychotically high prices based on that.
2) While this is shaping up to be the best season of his career, it's not like he wasn't already a star and wasn't already on track to be a first ballot HOF. He's 25 and should be getting into his peak years - pricing in a year like this wasn't exactly crazy. And it's not that much better than 2020/2021 were for him if he stays on these rates.
3) Soto has very few rookie autos versus any other star player that's had RCs in 2018 or later, but then he's turned around and signed in pretty much every veteran auto set ever since. His vet autos get massively suppressed in price because there are a relentless quantity of them.

There's a lot of headwinds to his prices actually going up, I think.

The main headwind is the amount of money flowing through the system.

Soto is up 27% relative to the market. That's similar to what Trout was gaining at this point in his career for similar production. The difference is the market was gaining 25-50% per year.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

The main headwind is the amount of money flowing through the system.

Soto is up 27% relative to the market. That's similar to what Trout was gaining at this point in his career for similar production. The difference is the market was gaining 25-50% per year.

Is the general consensus that Soto is bridesmaid to the alpha dog aaron judge on the Yankees limiting his upwards price potential as well?

[boxbuster7]

yes and anybody that says no is lying to you

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Is the general consensus that Soto is bridesmaid to the alpha dog aaron judge on the Yankees limiting his upwards price potential as well?

Maybe. Judge is up a hair more this year, but not quite as expensive overall due to the big age difference. I think the biggest factor is whether or not Soto ends up staying with the Yankees.

[Akphillips86]

Judge and Soto are only helping one another’s legacy. The insertion of Soto in the lineup forces pitchers to pick their poison and pitch to somebody. You can’t just award free bases with no consequences to back to back hitters. In the short term hobby wise, I do think Judge suppresses Soto prices to a small degree, but Judge’s effect on Soto’s stats only gives him fuel in the long term.

Judge is older, but also has the 62 Homerun season under his belt and hits massive homers in bunches. His legacy is already somewhat cemented by the number 62 (please save the steroid/non-steroid tangents, just stating the significance of this season). He isn’t forced to be a stat accumulator in the way most players are because of this. Plus, he’s a super likable player who has thus far represented the pinstripes his whole career. Health will matter most I think, because if he’s constantly in and out of the lineup for years it will tarnish his legacy. He just needs to stay on the field and simply be Aaron Judge for a small stretch of years.

Soto, meanwhile has youth on his side and when you look at statistical projections, the possibilities seem endless. He’s the closest thing to a complete hitter in baseball. The thing I like most about Soto is his pitch selection and his ability to hit plus arms hard. A lot of hitters with pop feast on weak arms and get blown away by the aces. With Soto, you rarely get that feeling he’s going to be overmatched in an AB.

In summary, I’m definitely enjoying watching this duo and I know Yankees fans are on cloud 9 right now.


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[Triple B]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

Judge and Soto are only helping one another’s legacy. The insertion of Soto in the lineup forces pitchers to pick their poison and pitch to somebody. You can’t just award free bases with no consequences to back to back hitters. In the short term hobby wise, I do think Judge suppresses Soto prices to a small degree, but Judge’s effect on Soto’s stats only gives him fuel in the long term.

Judge is older, but also has the 62 Homerun season under his belt and hits massive homers in bunches. His legacy is already somewhat cemented by the number 62 (please save the steroid/non-steroid tangents, just stating the significance of this season). He isn’t forced to be a stat accumulator in the way most players are because of this. Plus, he’s a super likable player who has thus far represented the pinstripes his whole career. Health will matter most I think, because if he’s constantly in and out of the lineup for years it will tarnish his legacy. He just needs to stay on the field and simply be Aaron Judge for a small stretch of years.

Soto, meanwhile has youth on his side and when you look at statistical projections, the possibilities seem endless. He’s the closest thing to a complete hitter in baseball. The thing I like most about Soto is his pitch selection and his ability to hit plus arms hard. A lot of hitters with pop feast on weak arms and get blown away by the aces. With Soto, you rarely get that feeling he’s going to be overmatched in an AB.

In summary, I’m definitely enjoying watching this duo and I know Yankees fans are on cloud 9 right now.

I wonder if Scott Boras will settle for his biggest fish being 2nd fiddle on the Yankees. No one ever wants to be Robin. Although, after the beating Boras took this off-season, maybe the money will be the most important thing.

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by Triple B

I wonder if Scott Boras will settle for his biggest fish being 2nd fiddle on the Yankees. No one ever wants to be Robin. Although, after the beating Boras took this off-season, maybe the money will be the most important thing.

Yeah, I think Boras just wants a payday. He’s going to get it either way with Soto.


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[KhalDrogo]

Boras doesn’t have the final say. Soto does. Pretty clear Soto has wanted to be in pinstripes at least since the Nationals tore it all down. I don’t think he cares about being the #2 guy to Judge. He wants to win and make big money doing it.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Boras doesn’t have the final say. Soto does. Pretty clear Soto has wanted to be in pinstripes at least since the Nationals tore it all down. I don’t think he cares about being the #2 guy to Judge. He wants to win and make big money doing it.

I don't think anyone knows what Soto wants other than Soto. He definitely looks to be enjoying this season, winning does that. Not sure you can't buy that enjoyment for an extra 100 million or 2.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Maybe. Judge is up a hair more this year, but not quite as expensive overall due to the big age difference. I think the biggest factor is whether or not Soto ends up staying with the Yankees.

If Soto bolts to yet another team, it will hurt his legacy even more.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

If Soto bolts to yet another team, it will hurt his legacy even more.

Not sure he's going to care while sleeping on top of 600m dollars.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by JRX

Not sure he's going to care while sleeping on top of 600m dollars.

He’s not going to care about his baseball card investors either.

Sincerely,

Nando

[boxbuster7]

He would be a crazy person to leave the yankees but he did turn down $424 million from the nationals...so anything is possible

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

He would be a crazy person to leave the yankees but he did turn down $424 million from the nationals...so anything is possible

That was 15/440 starting in 2023. He made $23 last year and $31 this year. He will certainly be getting a lot more than 13/386 with this deal. He made the easy, correct decision to decline the Nats low ball offer.

[dantheman514]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Maybe. Judge is up a hair more this year, but not quite as expensive overall due to the big age difference. I think the biggest factor is whether or not Soto ends up staying with the Yankees.

I think you are right in regards to Soto staying with the Yankees. If he were to sign a mid-season extension (very highly unlikely), his pricing would really surge.

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

That was 15/440 starting in 2023. He made $23 last year and $31 this year. He will certainly be getting a lot more than 13/386 with this deal. He made the easy, correct decision to decline the Nats low ball offer.

calling $440 million a lowball is crazy

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

calling $440 million a lowball is crazy

Ignoring the AAV is crazy. You think Soto two years ago was only worth $4M a year more than ARod was back in 2001?

[boxbuster7]

he wasn't very good on the padres

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

he wasn't very good on the padres

What does that have to do with the contract offer in 2022 before the trade? He also had an OPS+ of 150 with the Padres and was top 10 in the league in both seasons. I wouldn’t say he was amazing, but describing his play as “wasn’t very good” is asinine.

[seanrs1]

Can we please move the Soto discussion to the Soto thread? I like the discussion, but would be better to keep this thread on topic don't you think?

Now if you are talking strategy with buying or selling Soto cards that would be insightful. I have been buying a few low end RC when I find a deal I like. I would also prefer him to win MVP over Judge (since I don't collect Judge...yet).