The Zion 'Fatboi' Williamson Career LDL/HDL Tracker | BBW Appreciation Megathread.

[Dame]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

What is a One and One Gold BGS 9 worth?

How much was the counteroffer?

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Dame

How much was the counteroffer?

It’s on Dibbs. No subs, but centering looks 8.5-9 to me. $7633 is the market price. I’ve been buying, just trying to figure out if I’m out of touch because this seems dirt cheap to me when a base /99 PSA 10 just got $7600 two weeks ago.

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by Spartyon

I agree though. Would think with Luka’s concourse fetching $4,000+, the Zion concourse has a bit of catching up to do


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Maybe. Maybe not.

Depends what factors you value most in assessing worth. Lukas silver POP is only 281 and it’s safe to assume there probably isn’t a ton of these left to be graded. Zions is 684 and you can probably double that by the time it’s all said and done. I don’t put as much stake in POP reports as some so I would still lean Zion being undervalued just from the eye test. But I don’t think it’ll be possible for Zion to match Lukas prices on this given card if both remain on this real-life trajectory.

[Dame]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

It’s on Dibbs. No subs, but centering looks 8.5-9 to me. $7633 is the market price. I’ve been buying, just trying to figure out if I’m out of touch because this seems dirt cheap to me when a base /99 PSA 10 just got $7600 two weeks ago.

That is dirt cheap AF. Silver PSA 10 are going for $6.5-$7k, Blue/Purple encased are $4-$5k.

Was going to make a move on that PSA 9 listed on Ebay but it is no longer there.

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

It’s on Dibbs. No subs, but centering looks 8.5-9 to me. $7633 is the market price. I’ve been buying, just trying to figure out if I’m out of touch because this seems dirt cheap to me when a base /99 PSA 10 just got $7600 two weeks ago.

I feel like these days condition takes way higher precedent than print run, so if an equivalent condition /99 (8.5 centering seems bad by One & One standards) would probably draw around $2000-2500, a 3x multiplier for the gold /10 seems about right? maybe slightly undervalued it could go for $8-9k but I don't know if anyone would fork over 5 digits for something that O/C

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Dame

That is dirt cheap AF. Silver PSA 10 are going for $6.5-$7k, Blue/Purple encased are $4-$5k.

Was going to make a move on that PSA 9 listed on Ebay but it is no longer there.

If I could outright buy it, I would right now. But you have to acquire 75% then pay 33% premium. And acquiring 75% is difficult without running the price up unless someone were to put up a huge chunk with a market order near the current price. Dibbs controls most of the order book to allow for instant buys/sells, but the increments are so small.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

It’s on Dibbs. No subs, but centering looks 8.5-9 to me. $7633 is the market price. I’ve been buying, just trying to figure out if I’m out of touch because this seems dirt cheap to me when a base /99 PSA 10 just got $7600 two weeks ago.

Downside is the BGS case and the grade obviously, but I’d say it being inline with the base /99 it’s probably too cheap card for card.

Even from the drop of the product the Gold was ~3-4x raw. Still kicking myself for not hitting the BIN at $5K.

The Golds and Base are what someone should want from O&O. Similar outlook to 2012 Prizm IMO with similar pricing structures between Silvers and Golds.

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

Maybe. Maybe not.

Depends what factors you value most in assessing worth. Lukas silver POP is only 281 and it’s safe to assume there probably isn’t a ton of these left to be graded. Zions is 684 and you can probably double that by the time it’s all said and done. I don’t put as much stake in POP reports as some so I would still lean Zion being undervalued just from the eye test. But I don’t think it’ll be possible for Zion to match Lukas prices on this given card if both remain on this real-life trajectory.

I am not a believer in "tons of Zions left to be graded" in the PSA backlog, especially for higher level cards. For something like a Silver, who in their right mind would have submit in a Bulk sub? Even last summer the raws were $250-300, at least personally I was subbing stuff like that at "Regular / Standard" levels, and the base cards to Bulk. Select released 13 months ago, so there's been plenty of time to rip & submit, I wouldn't expect Silver POP at any level to grow much more than what they are now.

I know a lot of the Market Movers / Card Ladder type apps scrape the POP data all the time, does anyone know if they store it anywhere? I'd be super interested to know the growth rates of cards over time, but I assume they have been flattening for the past few months for prior releases

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

I am not a believer in "tons of Zions left to be graded" in the PSA backlog, especially for higher level cards. For something like a Silver, who in their right mind would have submit in a Bulk sub? Even last summer the raws were $250-300, at least personally I was subbing stuff like that at "Regular / Standard" levels, and the base cards to Bulk. Select released 13 months ago, so there's been plenty of time to rip & submit, I wouldn't expect Silver POP at any level to grow much more than what they are now.

Yeah i hear ya. We dont know. But I still think there will be a plethora coming back from grading. I have a 20 day standard with Jewcer that is going on 8 months now. Another one that is well on its way to go even beyond that. I also just bought a raw select concourse silver that will be going to grading in the next 5 years. What I do know for sure is that the POP report for Zion will go up more than the Luka will.

[Spartyon]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

Maybe. Maybe not.



Depends what factors you value most in assessing worth. Lukas silver POP is only 281 and it’s safe to assume there probably isn’t a ton of these left to be graded. Zions is 684 and you can probably double that by the time it’s all said and done. I don’t put as much stake in POP reports as some so I would still lean Zion being undervalued just from the eye test. But I don’t think it’ll be possible for Zion to match Lukas prices on this given card if both remain on this real-life trajectory.

100%, have to be aware of pop reports. I agree that he won’t get to Luka’s price point(at least in the short term) but I’m tempted into thinking it’s a $2,000 card in the next 6 months



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[Spartyon]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

I am not a believer in "tons of Zions left to be graded" in the PSA backlog, especially for higher level cards. For something like a Silver, who in their right mind would have submit in a Bulk sub? Even last summer the raws were $250-300, at least personally I was subbing stuff like that at "Regular / Standard" levels, and the base cards to Bulk. Select released 13 months ago, so there's been plenty of time to rip & submit, I wouldn't expect Silver POP at any level to grow much more than what they are now.



I know a lot of the Market Movers / Card Ladder type apps scrape the POP data all the time, does anyone know if they store it anywhere? I'd be super interested to know the growth rates of cards over time, but I assume they have been flattening for the past few months for prior releases

This is my line of thinking. Could there be a couple dozen left in the backlog/yet to be graded? Sure. But most gems were submitted and were likely received back between November and February I’d guess. I figured that was part of the modern dip that everyone was setting their hair on fire over,a slew of optic/select bulk orders back from psa right as the season got started.

Anyway, I also don’t expect populations to grow too crazily on Zion specifically. And when I look at the Prizm silver pop count I looooove the pop count on select silver psa 10’s, all the 3 levels




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[Spacemanspif]

just to continue on this line of thought, here's the POP counts of the "main" base silvers as of 04/13/21 for the time capsule:

PSA 10 POP / Total Graded / Gem Rate
Prizm Silver: 1198 / 3642 / 33%
Optic Holo: 396 / 1074 / 37%
Select Concourse Silver: 353 / 624 / 57%
Select Premier Silver: 115 / 199 / 58%
Select Courtside: 28 / 36 / 78%
Mosaic Silver: 414 / 702 / 59%


main takeaways for me are that all POPs are nice and low, especially relative to the corresponding base cards. Optic Holos stands out to me as super low, considering it was a retail release and only has 43 more gems than a Select Concourse? I know SCI just touched on the topic of the multipliers for Silver Prizms, I know they're expensive but given the gem rates and overall POP counts, I think Silver Prizms and Optic Holos are probably undervalued relative to Base / 9s / Select

[Spartyon]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

just to continue on this line of thought, here's the POP counts of the "main" base silvers as of 04/13/21 for the time capsule:



PSA 10 POP / Total Graded / Gem Rate

Prizm Silver: 1198 / 3642 / 33%

Optic Holo: 396 / 1074 / 37%

Select Concourse Silver: 353 / 624 / 57%

Select Premier Silver: 115 / 199 / 58%

Select Courtside: 28 / 36 / 78%

Mosaic Silver: 414 / 702 / 59%





main takeaways for me are that all POPs are nice and low, especially relative to the corresponding base cards. Optic Holos stands out to me as super low, considering it was a retail release and only has 43 more gems than a Select Concourse? I know SCI just touched on the topic of the multipliers for Silver Prizms, I know they're expensive but given the gem rates and overall POP counts, I think Silver Prizms and Optic Holos are probably undervalued relative to Base / 9s / Select

I see the point on gem rate, I’m staying away from Prizm just due to the fact that there are as many silver prizms as there are the other 5 you listed combined. Just nothing rare about Prizm to me anymore. Not with no huddle, choice, 15 retail skus, etc. the Prizm I own will be psa 9 and numbered


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[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Spartyon

I see the point on gem rate, I’m staying away from Prizm just due to the fact that there are as many silver prizms as there are the other 5 you listed combined. Just nothing rare about Prizm to me anymore. Not with no huddle, choice, 15 retail skus, etc. the Prizm I own will be psa 9 and numbered


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What’s crazy is that the population of all the Silver Zion in Prizm is probably less than all the color (numbered and unnumbered). Hell, there are 1596 total numbered Zion Prizm cards. They’re actually more abundant, in aggregate, than PSA 10 Silvers.

[ninjacookies]

Those currently itching to grade...are you just waiting for PSA's reopening or are you going with HGA/CSG?

[Spartyon]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

What’s crazy is that the population of all the Silver Zion in Prizm is probably less than all the color (numbered and unnumbered). Hell, there are 1596 total numbered Zion Prizm cards. They’re actually more abundant, in aggregate, than PSA 10 Silvers.

Numbers can look however you want them too. I imagine there are more silvers in aggregate than numbered. If you isolate 10’s for one of the population is kinda renders the comparison invalid imo.

Anyway, I don’t really mess with, and wasn’t referencing the discos, or choice, or purple green lazerzzz. Can’t go along with everything panini is slinging. Hobby color, team color, silver selectively





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[Spartyon]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Those currently itching to grade...are you just waiting for PSA's reopening or are you going with HGA/CSG?

Chillen over here, I’d try HGA out but don’t want to mess with the scramble to get slots. Seems futile with packs, boxes, etc nowadays. So why would this be any different


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[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Spartyon

Chillen over here, I’d try HGA out but don’t want to mess with the scramble to get slots. Seems futile with packs, boxes, etc nowadays. So why would this be any different


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Would totally go HGA for the laffy taffy balenciagaboi swag....but like you said, the lottery and submission caps are fail. CSG's prices are quite nice, but it's just tough for me to get past the landscaping flier color scheme.

[Chrominator]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Those currently itching to grade...are you just waiting for PSA's reopening or are you going with HGA/CSG?

Can't get myself drunk enough to pull the trigger on an HGA sub...


I did send in a preliminary batch to CSG about a month ago albeit no confirmation.


C'est la vie

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Chrominator

I did send in a preliminary batch to CSG about a month ago albeit no confirmation.


C'est la vie

My god. Signature conf.? Should be good to go, but I really hope you get clarity on that.

[Chrominator]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

My god. Signature conf.? Should be good to go, but I really hope you get clarity on that.

Well, it says "up to 15 days" before entered in to our system; so I'm guessing a few other folks musta sent some in too.


I'm now starting to think that PSA shutting their doors as CSG opens is some sort of move from The Art of War.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Those currently itching to grade...are you just waiting for PSA's reopening or are you going with HGA/CSG?

Sent CSG an order 2 weeks ago.

Have 116 more going out tomorrow economy style with 5 or 6 Zions

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Chrominator

Well, it says "up to 15 days" before entered in to our system; so I'm guessing a few other folks musta sent some in too.


I'm now starting to think that PSA shutting their doors as CSG opens is some sort of move from The Art of War.

As long as you have proof of delivery, you're gucci.


I do too. I don't think prices will ever approach PSA's for majority of cards, but they don't have to when it figure in opportunity costs (turnaround) and value of timing in this hobby for most low-mid end cards.

[Spacemanspif]

Holy crap. Optic Holo auto $7.4k, Noir RPA $6k, Immaculate RPA PSA 10 $38.6k, NT FOTL RPA BGS 9.5 $165.1k. Seems like the people with deep pockets are finally coming around.

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Hedge fund soccer dad @sportskardinvestor been playing possum with his premium subs.



Suppressing fatboi prices while he swoops in like AMZN circa 98.





Well played.

Was just checking the Zion Silver Prizm PSA 10s for sale, 10 currently at auction, all through consignors. 6 PWCC, 3 Probstein, 1 other. With that video he just put out yesterday, I’m like...