2019-20 Panini Chronicles Basketball- Pre-release Thread

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by jfan2024

4. While fat packs by data are the best SKU, I don't know if pack searching is possible but it's a fear with fat packs unlike the other 3. For what it's worth probably because i got lucky, paper card quality surprisingly has been the best for me out of the fat packs I've bought

Do you mean (in your experience) the condition has been best in fat packs?

EDIT: One thing to consider ... while many fat packs have sold for $20, the only way to prevent searching is to buy sealed boxes (12 packs each). These boxes appear to be selling for near $400, over $30/pack.

[Jbenn26]

Shits getting rough out there some old man threatened to fight my wife at Walmart today if she didn't share with him

[BobCollects]

Originally Posted by Jbenn26

Shits getting rough out there some old man threatened to fight my wife at Walmart today if she didn't share with him

Don't leave us hanging. Did she fight or share?

[missedthedrop]

Originally Posted by jfan2024

Small modification to the above because it's not as precise as it could be:

Megas - 5 chromes/box, 1 of those being a chrome parallel
Blasters - 2 chromes/box, no guarantees of a chrome parallel
Hangers - 2 chromes/box, no guarantees of a chrome parallel
Fat Packs - 1 chrome/pack, no guarantees of a chrome parallel

Autos are also present, if you do hit an auto it replaces a chrome, only part I'm not sure of is whether the auto replaces a chrome parallel or just takes a chrome spot.

I understand the limits of this if you're not buying at MSRP, but this means $ to MSRP to hit one chrome: megas - $10, blasters - $10, hangers - $5, fat pack - $5

Now I'm going to extrapolate some secondary market prices, I think this is pretty generous as I've bought below all these prices mostly last weekend after the Friday Walmart dump:

Megas - $200
Blasters - $60
Hangers - $50
Fat Packs - $20

This means for equivalent $600 spent (so we have round numbers), number of chromes pulled: 3 megas - 15, 10 blasters - 20, 12 hangers - 24, 30 fat packs - 30

Now rookies per format which I've posted before:

megas - ~70 rookies (mostly 2 vets and 3 rookies per pack however some 4-5 rookie packs so let's go with ~70)
blaster - same as mega format, 40% of size and 40% of price (MSRP)
hanger - 18-22 rookies
fat pack - 8-12 rookies

This means at MSRP, for every $100 spent, number of rookies produced: megas - 140, blasters - 140, hanger - 200, fat pack - 200

You can do the same secondary market analysis as above but this is why I've basically criticized anyone who keeps pumping megas, how rare bronze/teal are vs red/green etc. unless you can show me data

Now few notes:

1. While a single blaster/hanger/fat pack does not guarantee a chrome parallel like a mega, from what I've tracked it's not that far off from the return on the mega which is 1/$50box. Especially if you're paying $200+ a mega, buy $200 of any of the other SKUs and you'll be just as fine on chrome parallels
2. As I said, the autos confuse me as it's very important I think whether it's replacing a chrome or a chrome parallel. Replacing a chrome parallel is really unfortunate because the auto checklist is trash and you'd much rather have a chrome parallel
3. I haven't noticed silvers popping up more/less in ratio in any format compared to the SKU exclusive colors (like a bronze, teal, etc). The problem is chrome parallels in general are so rare it's hard to get a good sample size of this because you can rip thousands in product especially at secondary market prices and only pull a couple
4. While fat packs by data are the best SKU, I don't know if pack searching is possible but it's a fear with fat packs unlike the other 3. For what it's worth probably because i got lucky, paper card quality surprisingly has been the best for me out of the fat packs I've bought
5. I've been consistently saying hangers > fat packs are the way to go as a result, but most importantly these two are the very clear winners over megas and blasters which don't come close at MSRP or secondary market value
6. You can pull numbered in retail, I've seen blue /99 and red /149 pulled and 502 frank I believe pulled a Giannis gold /10 in his latest video

I dont think I pulled a chrome parallel in my MEGA that I opened, got the 5 chromes, just no parallel to that and no auto.
Bad box or just that similar feeling of the panini curse: "on averaged".

My typical feeling when opening panini products is also "nothing is guaranteed."
Twas still a fun rip.

[jfan2024]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

Do you mean (in your experience) the condition has been best in fat packs?

EDIT: One thing to consider ... while many fat packs have sold for $20, the only way to prevent searching is to buy sealed boxes (12 packs each). These boxes appear to be selling for near $400, over $30/pack.

Yes on condition, fat packs best (opened 15), hangers pretty good (opened 12), blasters worst (opened 1). No experience with megas. Wouldn't take much out of this though given the limited sample and luck. The paper paint comes off super easy on these cards, I even have to be careful when wiping down with a microfiber cloth. So when these packs get shipped/thrown around etc it's not surprising the amount of small issues you find when ripping. Also why early on I switched from caring about which SKU produces the most rookies into just caring about chrome. Chrome much better odds of 10/9.5 when you hit one

[dgr81]

Originally Posted by Jbenn26

Shits getting rough out there some old man threatened to fight my wife at Walmart today if she didn't share with him

i can't believe how disgusting this hobby has become, and you're in a small town in ontario.

here in the GTA, there is a female MJ Holdings rep that is hooking people up with any new basketball. only the empty displays make the shelves.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by jfan2024

Small modification to the above because it's not as precise as it could be:

Megas - 5 chromes/box, 1 of those being a chrome parallel
Blasters - 2 chromes/box, no guarantees of a chrome parallel
Hangers - 2 chromes/box, no guarantees of a chrome parallel
Fat Packs - 1 chrome/pack, no guarantees of a chrome parallel

Autos are also present, if you do hit an auto it replaces a chrome, only part I'm not sure of is whether the auto replaces a chrome parallel or just takes a chrome spot.

I understand the limits of this if you're not buying at MSRP, but this means $ to MSRP to hit one chrome: megas - $10, blasters - $10, hangers - $5, fat pack - $5

Now I'm going to extrapolate some secondary market prices, I think this is pretty generous as I've bought below all these prices mostly last weekend after the Friday Walmart dump:

Megas - $200
Blasters - $60
Hangers - $50
Fat Packs - $20

This means for equivalent $600 spent (so we have round numbers), number of chromes pulled: 3 megas - 15, 10 blasters - 20, 12 hangers - 24, 30 fat packs - 30

Now rookies per format which I've posted before:

megas - ~70 rookies (mostly 2 vets and 3 rookies per pack however some 4-5 rookie packs so let's go with ~70)
blaster - same as mega format, 40% of size and 40% of price (MSRP)
hanger - 18-22 rookies
fat pack - 8-12 rookies

This means at MSRP, for every $100 spent, number of rookies produced: megas - 140, blasters - 140, hanger - 200, fat pack - 200

You can do the same secondary market analysis as above but this is why I've basically criticized anyone who keeps pumping megas, how rare bronze/teal are vs red/green etc. unless you can show me data

Now few notes:

1. While a single blaster/hanger/fat pack does not guarantee a chrome parallel like a mega, from what I've tracked it's not that far off from the return on the mega which is 1/$50box. Especially if you're paying $200+ a mega, buy $200 of any of the other SKUs and you'll be just as fine on chrome parallels
2. As I said, the autos confuse me as it's very important I think whether it's replacing a chrome or a chrome parallel. Replacing a chrome parallel is really unfortunate because the auto checklist is trash and you'd much rather have a chrome parallel
3. I haven't noticed silvers popping up more/less in ratio in any format compared to the SKU exclusive colors (like a bronze, teal, etc). The problem is chrome parallels in general are so rare it's hard to get a good sample size of this because you can rip thousands in product especially at secondary market prices and only pull a couple
4. While fat packs by data are the best SKU, I don't know if pack searching is possible but it's a fear with fat packs unlike the other 3. For what it's worth probably because i got lucky, paper card quality surprisingly has been the best for me out of the fat packs I've bought
5. I've been consistently saying hangers > fat packs are the way to go as a result, but most importantly these two are the very clear winners over megas and blasters which don't come close at MSRP or secondary market value
6. You can pull numbered in retail, I've seen blue /99 and red /149 pulled and 502 frank I believe pulled a Giannis gold /10 in his latest video

Thank you for chiming in and providing a more precise summary breakdown.

Also appreciate you for sharing about the mega configuration as I had no clue but was curious to know where it fit among the other retail configurations.

Based on what you've gathered, at the current price points (bolded above), the ranking is as follows:

1. Fat Pack
2. Hanger
3. Blaster
4. Mega

I'm not surprised about Megas being overvalued because there's a lot of new people in the hobby, blindly assuming Chronicles Megas have the same kind of exclusive content as Prizm/Optic Megas. But it's certainly interesting to know that it's actually the weakest of the 4. Obviously, as the prices changes, so do the hierarchy but we can only go with where the prices are currently at.

Definitely night to see that fat packs are at the top as I have some incoming fat pack boxes. I added a bunch of hangers because I thought it was the best (based on my own quick calculations, as shared in the prior post), I guess I'm still happy that it's not #3/#4 but might need to shift towards buying fat packs now.

[Howie7107]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Thank you for chiming in and providing a more precise summary breakdown.

Also appreciate you for sharing about the mega configuration as I had no clue but was curious to know where it fit among the other retail configurations.

Based on what you've gathered, at the current price points (bolded above), the ranking is as follows:

1. Fat Pack
2. Hanger
3. Blaster
4. Mega

I'm not surprised about Megas being overvalued because there's a lot of new people in the hobby, blindly assuming Chronicles Megas have the same kind of exclusive content as Prizm/Optic Megas. But it's certainly interesting to know that it's actually the weakest of the 4. Obviously, as the prices changes, so do the hierarchy but we can only go with where the prices are currently at.

Definitely night to see that fat packs are at the top as I have some incoming fat pack boxes. I added a bunch of hangers because I thought it was the best (based on my own quick calculations, as shared in the prior post), I guess I'm still happy that it's not #3/#4 but might need to shift towards buying fat packs now.

Fat Packs are also most susceptible to return making them a pretty high risk sell (unless of course in a sealed box). My rule of thumb has been that I'd open any Fat Packs I got my hands on and sell the rest.

[GTguy]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

I like reading your posts because we think alike. I wrote the post above about a week ago.

Here's the sell sheet for the blaster/hanger/fat pack configurations (I don't know the specifics for megas).



In my opinion, the most important factor is determining the average cost for 1 Opti-Chrome card. However, there's still a lot of value in regular base (or retail exclusive color) cards because they're mostly rookies or top veterans (unlike other sets where such cards are typically junk veterans).

Because I don't know the specifics for megas, I won't comment on them. And I'm using perceived average eBay sale prices to do the math below.

Blasters: $65 for 40 cards (1-2 opti-chrome so let's go with the midpoint of 1.5), average price per card is $1.625
Hangers: $47.50 for 30 cards (1-2 opti-chrome so let's go with the midpoint of 1.5), average price per card is $1.583
Fat pack: $20 for 15 cards (0-1 opti-chrome so let's go with the midpoint of 0.5), average price per card is $1.333

Based on the numbers above, you're basically paying the following to hit 1 opti-chrome per retail configuration:

Blasters: $43.33
Hangers: $31.67
Fat pack: $40

Clearly, hangers are the best value for hitting opti-chrome cards (of the 3 listed options) and fat packs are the best value for average price per card. It really depends on which one produces more value, on average.

The ceiling is higher for the former (hangers) but the floor is higher for the latter (fat packs). In any case, blasters are the weakest of the 3.

I appreciate your work on this, but while interesting, the logic is deeply flawed. On one hand, you want to use a very limited sample size to extrapolate data for an entire print run and yet you are asking for proof that a teal parallel is more rare than others... despite the fact that Megas are exclusive. You can’t extrapolate one and not the other, especially when the latter is largely based on fact.

Best case, the data is incomplete, at worst it is negligent. And I’ve sold all
my Chronicles at this point, so I have zero at stake, until I buy more that is

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by blinkme323

It doesn’t seem that complicated to me. Megas being a Target exclusive implies that teals should be more rare than any of the other “colors”. Unless of course you think that they produced as many Megas as hangers, cellos, etc. despite the exclusivity, which seems unlikely at best.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It's... more complicated than that.

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Thank you for chiming in and providing a more precise summary breakdown.

Also appreciate you for sharing about the mega configuration as I had no clue but was curious to know where it fit among the other retail configurations.

Based on what you've gathered, at the current price points (bolded above), the ranking is as follows:

1. Fat Pack
2. Hanger
3. Blaster
4. Mega

I'm not surprised about Megas being overvalued because there's a lot of new people in the hobby, blindly assuming Chronicles Megas have the same kind of exclusive content as Prizm/Optic Megas. But it's certainly interesting to know that it's actually the weakest of the 4. Obviously, as the prices changes, so do the hierarchy but we can only go with where the prices are currently at.

Definitely night to see that fat packs are at the top as I have some incoming fat pack boxes. I added a bunch of hangers because I thought it was the best (based on my own quick calculations, as shared in the prior post), I guess I'm still happy that it's not #3/#4 but might need to shift towards buying fat packs now.

I think unless we start to see a significant difference in pricing amongst similar parallels, your best bet is to just look at it simply through the lens of $/card. I've only ripped one Mega and one Blaster so far, but I got exactly 15% color and 5% chrome in both, which seemed purposeful, and I believe aligned with other breaks people have shown.. I'd love for someone with a large sample size to validate those numbers, but as of now I'm sticking with "where do I get the most cards per dollar".

The cello searching thing is a possibility I guess? but given how many cards there are and Zion or Ja in almost every pack, it seems a little far fetched. I've bought some big lots recently off people that are obviously not in tune enough with cards to do such a thing, they're just flipping for the easy money. maybe if you're buying a single or couple cellos off someone who also sells lots of cards you could be cautious, but even then it's like $20 so *shrug

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by Howie7107

Fat Packs are also most susceptible to return making them a pretty high risk sell (unless of course in a sealed box). My rule of thumb has been that I'd open any Fat Packs I got my hands on and sell the rest.

True, there's always that risk.

Probably best to just buy early into the release and from credible sources and minimize the risk (can't entirely prevent it unless paying a premium to secure a sealed fat pack box).

[thefranchise3]

My only "proof" that teal and bronze chrome parallels are more rare than pink/green is simple eBay searches. These are just very rough numbers and not very accurate as some of these have been listed wrong as well as obviously not everybody is listing on eBay. Also many are obviously holding a lot sealed. All these includes sold and active

Teal: 84 listings
Bronze: 18 listings
Pink: 288 listings
Green: 268 listings (175 without Flux)

Green is the most off because a ton of people are listing base flux as green. If you take out Flux it becomes 175 ish.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

I think unless we start to see a significant difference in pricing amongst similar parallels, your best bet is to just look at it simply through the lens of $/card. I've only ripped one Mega and one Blaster so far, but I got exactly 15% color and 5% chrome in both, which seemed purposeful, and I believe aligned with other breaks people have shown.. I'd love for someone with a large sample size to validate those numbers, but as of now I'm sticking with "where do I get the most cards per dollar".

The cello searching thing is a possibility I guess? but given how many cards there are and Zion or Ja in almost every pack, it seems a little far fetched. I've bought some big lots recently off people that are obviously not in tune enough with cards to do such a thing, they're just flipping for the easy money. maybe if you're buying a single or couple cellos off someone who also sells lots of cards you could be cautious, but even then it's like $20 so *shrug

Agreed. I have my own biases since I personally don't care about the different non-numbered colored Chronicles exclusives but you're absolutely right in that the value of such cards will influence which retail configuration is the best.

[jfan2024]

Originally Posted by GTguy

I appreciate your work on this, but while interesting, the logic is deeply flawed. On one hand, you want to use a very limited sample size to extrapolate data for an entire print run and yet you are asking for proof that a teal parallel is more rare than others... despite the fact that Megas are exclusive. You can’t extrapolate one and not the other, especially when the latter is largely based on fact.

At best, the data is incomplete, at worst it is negligent. And I’ve sold all
my Chronicles at this point, so I have zero at stake, until I buy more that is

On one hand, you want to use a very limited sample size to extrapolate data for an entire print run

Fair point, but what are we supposed to do otherwise? We're not going to get Panini to give us information on print run or odds like Topps does. We can only hope to gather more and more of a sample over time and assume it's representative of the whole print run. I will say one data issue is that I'm pulling data from people breaking a few loose boxes/hangers/packs at a time and that can be biased to the positive of only sharing good breaks. However, it still adds up to a bunch of cases worth at this point so it's a decent enough start in my mind


yet you are asking for proof that a teal parallel is more rare than others... despite the fact that Megas are exclusive.

So in previous posts, I've said that I would believe that the exclusive color parallels (teal/green/bronze/pink) are more rare than silver. This being because silvers are in all as opposed to being SKU specific. However, unless we know megas are more limited than the other SKUs, maybe the case as a Target exclusive but we don't really know, I think it's dishonest to be pumping any of the exclusive color parallels. I think what's happening is all the chrome parallels are so darn rare that it's creating a false sense of exclusivity of a certain color (silver/teal/green/bronze/pink), so rare in fact that people are wondering if bronze is /5..

[boldon1]

Originally Posted by dgr81

i can't believe how disgusting this hobby has become, and you're in a small town in ontario.

here in the GTA, there is a female MJ Holdings rep that is hooking people up with any new basketball. only the empty displays make the shelves.

Brother have you found any this week?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jnmcards]

Someone already beat me to it, but I have been tracking the colored parallels on eBay since the first one hit. Teal and bronze are by FAR, the two rarest colors. Taking that and the Mega exclusivity in to account, it doesn’t take a leap in logic to understand that they more rare than the others.

If the numbers change in the future then so be it, but people continually gloss over these two facts to fit their agenda.

As for chrome, I can’t speak on those so I’ll defer to whatever data has been aggregated. But again, calling bronze and especially teal non-sp is just comical at this point.

[jfan2024]

Originally Posted by thefranchise3

My only "proof" that teal and bronze chrome parallels are more rare than pink/green is simple eBay searches. These are just very rough numbers and not very accurate as some of these have been listed wrong as well as obviously not everybody is listing on eBay. Also many are obviously holding a lot sealed. All these includes sold and active

Teal: 84 listings
Bronze: 18 listings
Pink: 288 listings
Green: 268 listings (175 without Flux)

Green is the most off because a ton of people are listing base flux as green. If you take out Flux it becomes 175 ish.

Thanks this is definitely interesting. Would be interesting as time goes on how this changes. We'll never know for sure because of things like is teal and bronze more rare because sealed boxes of those seem to be the easiest sealed investment format hence less ripped?

Nevertheless, the bronze especially does seem shockingly low. There's a youtube breaker that's posted hours of fat pack box breaks. I only made it through one hour because I find the breaker intolerable (in fairness I find just about all breakers intolerable), in the first hour of 6 boxes aka 72 packs, there were 2 bronze, 0 silver, and 2 autos. If somebody is willing to breakdown the multiple hour long videos he has of fat pack boxes that would be interesting to learn more about bronze chrome

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by jfan2024

On one hand, you want to use a very limited sample size to extrapolate data for an entire print run

Fair point, but what are we supposed to do otherwise? We're not going to get Panini to give us information on print run or odds like Topps does. We can only hope to gather more and more of a sample over time and assume it's representative of the whole print run. I will say one data issue is that I'm pulling data from people breaking a few loose boxes/hangers/packs at a time and that can be biased to the positive of only sharing good breaks. However, it still adds up to a bunch of cases worth at this point so it's a decent enough start in my mind


yet you are asking for proof that a teal parallel is more rare than others... despite the fact that Megas are exclusive.

So in previous posts, I've said that I would believe that the exclusive color parallels (teal/green/bronze/pink) are more rare than silver. This being because silvers are in all as opposed to being SKU specific. However, unless we know megas are more limited than the other SKUs, maybe the case as a Target exclusive but we don't really know, I think it's dishonest to be pumping any of the exclusive color parallels. I think what's happening is all the chrome parallels are so darn rare that it's creating a false sense of exclusivity of a certain color (silver/teal/green/bronze/pink), so rare in fact that people are wondering if bronze is /5..

I'd argue it's not a fair point. dude doesn't think through anything and was saying people were claiming that Megas would hit $100 to prove he was right about... I dunno, just to make himself feel better (btw, nobody ever said that).

I think what we're doing is correct, and generally while the retail colors may end up being relatively rare, they're still going to be common enough that I don't think there will be a huge chase for them, other than Bronze Chrome which are obviously the hardest to find at this point. I bought a few Megas just to keep, but for the ripping I want to do and maybe resale down the line, I'm going to stick with my formulas.

If color comes out at roughly 15%, Teal would have to be worth 300% of equivalent pinks to justify the current 30+% difference in blaster vs Mega right now. it's simply not the case (yet), so I'll keep my handful of Megas as a hedge, but otherwise sticking to $/card. Graded base Zions & Ja in quantity is where the $ is going to be anyway

[thefranchise3]

Originally Posted by jfan2024

Thanks this is definitely interesting. Would be interesting as time goes on how this changes. We'll never know for sure because of things like is teal and bronze more rare because sealed boxes of those seem to be the easiest sealed investment format hence less ripped?

Nevertheless, the bronze especially does seem shockingly low. There's a youtube breaker that's posted hours of fat pack box breaks. I only made it through one hour because I find the breaker intolerable (in fairness I find just about all breakers intolerable), in the first hour of 6 boxes aka 72 packs, there were 2 bronze, 0 silver, and 2 autos. If somebody is willing to breakdown the multiple hour long videos he has of fat pack boxes that would be interesting to learn more about bronze chrome

I do wonder if Panini didn't number these this year just so they can print more if they so choose. I bought a lot of singles of teal parallels because I feel they are really cool looking and figured they would be fairly rare. As more and more get opened I'm sure we'll get a better sense.

[GTguy]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

I'd argue it's not a fair point. dude doesn't think through anything and was saying people were claiming that Megas would hit $100 to prove he was right about... I dunno, just to make himself feel better (btw, nobody ever said that).

I think what we're doing is correct, and generally while the retail colors may end up being relatively rare, they're still going to be common enough that I don't think there will be a huge chase for them, other than Bronze Chrome which are obviously the hardest to find at this point. I bought a few Megas just to keep, but for the ripping I want to do and maybe resale down the line, I'm going to stick with my formulas.

If color comes out at roughly 15%, Teal would have to be worth 300% of equivalent pinks to justify the current 30+% difference in blaster vs Mega right now. it's simply not the case (yet), so I'll keep my handful of Megas as a hedge, but otherwise sticking to $/card. Graded base Zions & Ja in quantity is where the $ is going to be anyway

Yes, stick to your “formulas“

[Jbenn26]

Originally Posted by BobCollects

Don't leave us hanging. Did she fight or share?

Definitely shared, it's just pathetic some old man is threatening a 4'9 women over pieces of cardboard

[blinkme323]

Lots of interesting data being presented here. This is just such a hard release to handicap with all of the variations, but honestly I don’t think you can go wrong with any of the formats.

I’ve personally had the most success with Megas and hangers but ymmv. The loudest voices in this thread are probably people who will never open any at all, lol.


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[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by thefranchise3

My only "proof" that teal and bronze chrome parallels are more rare than pink/green is simple eBay searches. These are just very rough numbers and not very accurate as some of these have been listed wrong as well as obviously not everybody is listing on eBay. Also many are obviously holding a lot sealed. All these includes sold and active

Teal: 84 listings
Bronze: 18 listings
Pink: 288 listings
Green: 268 listings (175 without Flux)

Green is the most off because a ton of people are listing base flux as green. If you take out Flux it becomes 175 ish.

Originally Posted by jfan2024

Thanks this is definitely interesting. Would be interesting as time goes on how this changes. We'll never know for sure because of things like is teal and bronze more rare because sealed boxes of those seem to be the easiest sealed investment format hence less ripped?

Nevertheless, the bronze especially does seem shockingly low. There's a youtube breaker that's posted hours of fat pack box breaks. I only made it through one hour because I find the breaker intolerable (in fairness I find just about all breakers intolerable), in the first hour of 6 boxes aka 72 packs, there were 2 bronze, 0 silver, and 2 autos. If somebody is willing to breakdown the multiple hour long videos he has of fat pack boxes that would be interesting to learn more about bronze chrome

I agree the Bronze seems to be the SP of the bunch, but no way will print run end up at /5 or whatever, as there's already been at least 3-4 of some of these on ebay already. personally I think they're ugly so only going to pick some up if they come really cheap, but a year from now I think the buyer pool for "Carmelo in a Blazers uni" in brown is going to be pretty small.

[Beavers98]

I thought I'd seen this posted before, but can't seem to find it. What is the consensus on the levels or tiers of the RC's. Is it Flux all the way down to prestige, panni or how would you rank them?

[jfan2024]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

I'd argue it's not a fair point. dude doesn't think through anything and was saying people were claiming that Megas would hit $100 to prove he was right about... I dunno, just to make himself feel better (btw, nobody ever said that).

I think what we're doing is correct, and generally while the retail colors may end up being relatively rare, they're still going to be common enough that I don't think there will be a huge chase for them, other than Bronze Chrome which are obviously the hardest to find at this point. I bought a few Megas just to keep, but for the ripping I want to do and maybe resale down the line, I'm going to stick with my formulas.

If color comes out at roughly 15%, Teal would have to be worth 300% of equivalent pinks to justify the current 30+% difference in blaster vs Mega right now. it's simply not the case (yet), so I'll keep my handful of Megas as a hedge, but otherwise sticking to $/card. Graded base Zions & Ja in quantity is where the $ is going to be anyway

Agreed on your approach. It's why I started with #rookies/$ spent as a starting point. I only switched to tracking chrome closer because finding gem mints among the paper is hard (as it was last year and with any paper product), but with the dark color borders/corners on many of the brands it seemed especially problematic I guess. For example, luminance gem mints should carry a premium in my mind given how hard those are going to be to gem.

The eBay data clearly shows something odd is happening with bronze. It just seems weird to me bronze would be especially designed by Panini to be SSP. Why fat packs? If /5 why not tell people to sell product? You're getting 1 bronze/fat pack (as you noted 15% like any other SKU), why are the chromes all of a sudden so rare when the overall percentage of bronze is the same 15% as any other SKU color exclusive?