Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

It may be the 100 recession/inflation/crash is coming threads posted a week also. But to answer your question:

"--Did not sound like any high end was moving at all and it seemed like it was because the price was just too high / people did not have interest in buying or putting out the cash."

"--Heard more than one dealer say they are getting concerned about the costs of doing a show now (gas, tolls, hotel, table cost) and this will play a bigger role going forward."

Interesting.

The first one you must be focused on the 2nd factor (no interest) whereas I focused on the first (priced too high). This is a natural reaction for me because most people (live or online) simply put too high of a number on their stuff, especially on the high end.

The second statement would push prices up, IMO. That is dealers saying they can't afford to do shows because of the extra expenses. That would reduce supply, but demand still seems strong. It's definitely not forecasting a crash, unless you think they'd do a fire sale.

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Interesting.

The first one you must be focused on the 2nd factor (no interest) whereas I focused on the first (priced too high). This is a natural reaction for me because most people (live or online) simply put too high of a number on their stuff, especially on the high end.

The second statement would push prices up, IMO. That is dealers saying they can't afford to do shows because of the extra expenses. That would reduce supply, but demand still seems strong. It's definitely not forecasting a crash, unless you think they'd do a fire sale.

I don't go to shows myself so can't really speak much about them. But I went to a well known local card shop this past week and it was pretty much dead. I was the only customer there and stayed for about 20-25 minutes. (Of course I bought a $300 card when I went to get penny sleeves...)

But even from using COMC and reading these boards in the past few months. It is palpable. I keep telling myself now is a good time to get out. (And I really can't "get out" - as I've got over 150,000 cards on COMC that would take almost two years to liquidate at my current selling pace)

There is no doubt we are in an era of overprinting. And that is what has me keep telling myself to cut back. That the lack of demand just doesn't feel right for how much junk is out there. (Sure everybody wants the top cards or the hot player.) But that never changes.

I think now is a good time to exercise caution. I want to hold more cash for liquidity and wait for the right opportunities. And six months from now maybe this all passes...The fun part in all of this is not knowing what will happen.

[mwash1983]

Going to the Albany show today, I’ll post what I see.

[solt0131]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Interesting.

The first one you must be focused on the 2nd factor (no interest) whereas I focused on the first (priced too high). This is a natural reaction for me because most people (live or online) simply put too high of a number on their stuff, especially on the high end.

The second statement would push prices up, IMO. That is dealers saying they can't afford to do shows because of the extra expenses. That would reduce supply, but demand still seems strong. It's definitely not forecasting a crash, unless you think they'd do a fire sale.

I don't think they are going to stop doing them, honestly. I think some will actually stop doing them but not a lot. I think they will be more selective about what shows they do and possibly cut the shows out that cost too much to attend.

A few dealers I talked with said they turned into buyers and wanted to stock up on some stuff they can make money on at The National.

[pewe]

There was a huge show at Fenway in Boston last weekend. Did anyone go?

No one in the Red Sox or Devers threads seems to have gone.

I was wondering how that one was


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[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by solt0131

I don't think they are going to stop doing them, honestly. I think some will actually stop doing them but not a lot. I think they will be more selective about what shows they do and possibly cut the shows out that cost too much to attend.

A few dealers I talked with said they turned into buyers and wanted to stock up on some stuff they can make money on at The National.

Most dealers are morons.

[OneSickDegen]

I went to the show here in Vegas at GVR yesterday and the line to get in was 100 yards that snaked down the hall and around the corner. Crazy. Tons of people looking for cash deals LOL

Talked to a couple dealers and they didn't wanna come off ebay comps for the few slabs/sealed product I was looking at. I don't understand that logic but whatever.

Found one hobby box and a bunch of cheap supplies I needed and got outta there.

Pokemon plus sportscard autist BO was thick. I was in and out in under an hour LOL

[tconte]

Originally Posted by OneSickDegen

Talked to a couple dealers and they didn't wanna come off ebay comps for the few slabs/sealed product I was looking at. I don't understand that logic but whatever.

I agree with you.

I've seen this more and more on myslabs these days. Sellers asking more
than comps and/or same as ebay prices. Zero discount.

Wanted to add a couple cool Jordan inserts from myslabs and when I went
to check out pricing saw I could do much better on ebay than overpay on
myslabs.

Go figure.

[SupermanBrandon]

Dealers will sound like a broken record for the foreseeable future: “ I can’t let it go for that price, I’m in it for a lot more than that”


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[notfast]

Always love threads about card shows because people who obviously haven’t been to a show recently love to comment.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by tconte

I agree with you.

I've seen this more and more on myslabs these days. Sellers asking more
than comps and/or same as ebay prices. Zero discount.

Wanted to add a couple cool Jordan inserts from myslabs and when I went
to check out pricing saw I could do much better on ebay than overpay on
myslabs.

Go figure.

That’s weird, cause I keep on losing on eBay auctions on every single auction I bid on for my guy.

Maybe his cards will be cheaper at the card shows.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by OneSickDegen

I went to the show here in Vegas at GVR yesterday and the line to get in was 100 yards that snaked down the hall and around the corner. Crazy. Tons of people looking for cash deals LOL

Talked to a couple dealers and they didn't wanna come off ebay comps for the few slabs/sealed product I was looking at. I don't understand that logic but whatever.

Found one hobby box and a bunch of cheap supplies I needed and got outta there.

Pokemon plus sportscard autist BO was thick. I was in and out in under an hour LOL

Dealers are still at the denial stage of the hobby recession, which is still the earliest stage. Their pride is still speaking loudly and they would rather die with their cards clutched to their hands than lose a single penny on a sale.

Anger is the next stage. They will start to wonder and obsess over why their hot cards aren’t moving at 150% eBay comps. They will start to get irritable at the idiot customers who keep on “lowballing” them.

After a few more months, bargaining starts to set in. They realize their set up costs continue to rise and opportunity costs continue to mount and they start to pray that they pull some monsters in the group breaks they keep participating in to make up some costs and hope the cards of the players they invested in start to skyrocket come call up and playoff time.

Then the nasty depression starts to set in. The offseason is coming and they are stuck with heavy bags and prices keep dropping and they still can’t get anywhere close to what he’s got his cards priced at. People start to pass up his table at every show he does cause he’s got the same old cards with the same old prices on them every single time. He’s lost his day job and his wife is angry at him for not selling at the peak, where he could have made triple the money.

Finally acceptance kicks in the following year. He dumps his whole inventory at a major loss cause his wife is threatening to leave him for screwing up the household finances. He leaves the hobby forever except for getting into one cheap break on occasion for the impossible chance of hitting that million dollar card, holding a “will work 4 food” sign as he gathers money for his next group break.

[anusinha]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

Dealers will sound like a broken record for the foreseeable future: “ I can’t let it go for that price, I’m in it for a lot more than that”


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Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Most dealers are morons.

Accurate statements

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Dealers are still at the denial stage of the hobby recession, which is still the earliest stage. Their pride is still speaking loudly and they would rather die with their cards clutched to their hands than lose a single penny on a sale.

Anger is the next stage. They will start to wonder and obsess over why their hot cards aren’t moving at 150% eBay comps. They will start to get irritable at the idiot customers who keep on “lowballing” them.

After a few more months, bargaining starts to set in. They realize their set up costs continue to rise and opportunity costs continue to mount and they start to pray that they pull some monsters in the group breaks they keep participating in to make up some costs and hope the cards of the players they invested in start to skyrocket come call up and playoff time.

Then the nasty depression starts to set in. The offseason is coming and they are stuck with heavy bags and prices keep dropping and they still can’t get anywhere close to what he’s got his cards priced at. People start to pass up his table at every show he does cause he’s got the same old cards with the same old prices on them every single time. He’s lost his day job and his wife is angry at him for not selling at the peak, where he could have made triple the money.

Finally acceptance kicks in the following year. He dumps his whole inventory at a major loss cause his wife is threatening to leave him for screwing up the household finances. He leaves the hobby forever except for getting into one cheap break on occasion for the impossible chance of hitting that million dollar card, holding a “will work 4 food” sign as he gathers money for his next group break.

This is where most will be at the National!

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

This is where most will be at the National!

Maybe on Wednesday and Thursday. By Saturday afternoon, they will have progressed to the acceptance phase.

Dealers turning into net buyers to move product at the National for profit are not thinking about what the landscape might look like in two months. The risk/reward ratio is just not there unless you are practically stealing cards today. And if you are, why wait two months to sell? Go move it now for a profit.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Dealers are still at the denial stage of the hobby recession, which is still the earliest stage. Their pride is still speaking loudly and they would rather die with their cards clutched to their hands than lose a single penny on a sale.

Anger is the next stage. They will start to wonder and obsess over why their hot cards aren’t moving at 150% eBay comps. They will start to get irritable at the idiot customers who keep on “lowballing” them.

After a few more months, bargaining starts to set in. They realize their set up costs continue to rise and opportunity costs continue to mount and they start to pray that they pull some monsters in the group breaks they keep participating in to make up some costs and hope the cards of the players they invested in start to skyrocket come call up and playoff time.

Then the nasty depression starts to set in. The offseason is coming and they are stuck with heavy bags and prices keep dropping and they still can’t get anywhere close to what he’s got his cards priced at. People start to pass up his table at every show he does cause he’s got the same old cards with the same old prices on them every single time. He’s lost his day job and his wife is angry at him for not selling at the peak, where he could have made triple the money.

Finally acceptance kicks in the following year. He dumps his whole inventory at a major loss cause his wife is threatening to leave him for screwing up the household finances. He leaves the hobby forever except for getting into one cheap break on occasion for the impossible chance of hitting that million dollar card, holding a “will work 4 food” sign as he gathers money for his next group break.

Dude, you have to be a published writer -- that is hilarious.

[jewcer2k5]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

It may be the 100 recession/inflation/crash is coming threads posted a week also. But to answer your question:

"--Did not sound like any high end was moving at all and it seemed like it was because the price was just too high / people did not have interest in buying or putting out the cash."

"--Heard more than one dealer say they are getting concerned about the costs of doing a show now (gas, tolls, hotel, table cost) and this will play a bigger role going forward."

We get asked A LOT if we go to shows and this is why we don't. Ive been trying to do projections about how much money is OUT of the hobby because of shows. Shows do not bring in new collectors, investors, or speculators it just sucks money out of the hobby. Sure, it's cool to see your friends and go to shows but from a business perspective it is a complete waste. You will get more money for your cards from somewhere else and not have the insane overhead of a show. We ONLY do the National, we have considered traveling to shows to see people and meet folks but setting up is basically out of our minds.

I think 8 figures+ have been given to other industries just by having the influx of shows in the past 2 years.

[k13]

Originally Posted by jewcer2k5

We get asked A LOT if we go to shows and this is why we don't. Ive been trying to do projections about how much money is OUT of the hobby because of shows. Shows do not bring in new collectors, investors, or speculators it just sucks money out of the hobby. Sure, it's cool to see your friends and go to shows but from a business perspective it is a complete waste. You will get more money for your cards from somewhere else and not have the insane overhead of a show. We ONLY do the National, we have considered traveling to shows to see people and meet folks but setting up is basically out of our minds.

I think 8 figures+ have been given to other industries just by having the influx of shows in the past 2 years.

There is still people who don't use ebay/internet and only buy at shows/in person but probably not many in your areas.

[jewcer2k5]

Originally Posted by k13

There is still people who don't use ebay/internet and only buy at shows/in person but probably not many in your areas.

Small local shows are great, the problem is these enormous regional shows multiple times per month. If dealers are traveling 2x per month they are spending about 5-10k per month on shows (flight, hotel, setup, etc...). If I spend 10k to do a show I need to sell $200k to make it worth it (at full eBay). Thats just a straight percentage if I am a dealer that is "just" a dealer.

Our model is a little different and we could actually afford to do more shows because its the cost of customer acquisition. As long as we get enough grading / consignment customers or buy a certain amount it COULD be worth it. I don't think we need a lot of shows for that though.

I dont think there are many folks in Dallas, Vegas, Philly, Long Island, Chicago, DC, Minneapolis, San Fran, etc...that are not using the internet. Those large regional shows are what I am talking about.

[Scottish Punk]

Wouldn't the two big advantages of shows is that you are buying while being able to see the cards in hand. Your selling via cash, so no transaction fees. Also more "flexible" tax reporting, ahem.

I think many dealers are collectors at their root and not business people. How many dealers have taken any business classes? The importance of making your money on the buy side, turning over inventory, cash flow, etc. Making $20 profit on multiple cards is better than waiting for that $50 profit on one card.

[rogueriver]

Originally Posted by jewcer2k5

Small local shows are great, the problem is these enormous regional shows multiple times per month. If dealers are traveling 2x per month they are spending about 5-10k per month on shows (flight, hotel, setup, etc...). If I spend 10k to do a show I need to sell $200k to make it worth it (at full eBay). Thats just a straight percentage if I am a dealer that is "just" a dealer.

Our model is a little different and we could actually afford to do more shows because its the cost of customer acquisition. As long as we get enough grading / consignment customers or buy a certain amount it COULD be worth it. I don't think we need a lot of shows for that though.

I dont think there are many folks in Dallas, Vegas, Philly, Long Island, Chicago, DC, Minneapolis, San Fran, etc...that are not using the internet. Those large regional shows are what I am talking about.

Maybe I am the only one here, but I dont go to shows to see all the national leaders in the industry. I go to the local shows to see the small dealers who dont have shops or small shops from within the state. Big dealers are great and I visit them too. If you go back to the 1990s and 2000's most large dealers did not attend many shows except the big ones. Shows were mostly your small mom and pop people and mainly people who didnt have shops. Now it almost seems like every show is the same 50 dealers. But you are right most sellers are online now. Yet I like to go to shows and see the smaller dealers. Just my opinion.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by tconte

I agree with you.

I've seen this more and more on myslabs these days. Sellers asking more
than comps and/or same as ebay prices. Zero discount.

Wanted to add a couple cool Jordan inserts from myslabs and when I went
to check out pricing saw I could do much better on ebay than overpay on
myslabs.

Go figure.

Were they charging sales tax? If not, they were giving you a discount. Dealers traveling to a show have a similar overhead to Ebay's ~13% fees. I don't understand why collectors expect a discount at a show. The dealer could just stay at home and sell on eBay, avoiding paying for gas, hotel, food, table fees, etc.

[rogueriver]

Also there is something special about see and holding a card that you are thinking about buying. I do think that is lost in todays generation. The thrill of the hunt is also lost, now you want a card just type it in on ebay and POOF several copies. There is no better feeling that going to a card show and seeing the card you have been looking for for the last few years shinning back look at you saying buy me. Do you have any idea how hard it was for me to find a 1993 Stadium Club First day production Ryne Sandberg back in 1993.....

[jewcer2k5]

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

Wouldn't the two big advantages of shows is that you are buying while being able to see the cards in hand. Your selling via cash, so no transaction fees. Also more "flexible" tax reporting, ahem.

I think many dealers are collectors at their root and not business people. How many dealers have taken any business classes? The importance of making your money on the buy side, turning over inventory, cash flow, etc. Making $20 profit on multiple cards is better than waiting for that $50 profit on one card.

This is a classic misconception from both dealers and buyers. My transaction/selling fees for a show are the cost of a show. Cash is great, I guess, but there are still fees for being there that need to be taken into account. That is the biggest reason why I think shows are a drain on the hoby.

Yes many dealers have no business sense, which is why they think there are no costs involved.

Originally Posted by rogueriver

Maybe I am the only one here, but I dont go to shows to see all the national leaders in the industry. I go to the local shows to see the small dealers who dont have shops or small shops from within the state. Big dealers are great and I visit them too. If you go back to the 1990s and 2000's most large dealers did not attend many shows except the big ones. Shows were mostly your small mom and pop people and mainly people who didnt have shops. Now it almost seems like every show is the same 50 dealers. But you are right most sellers are online now. Yet I like to go to shows and see the smaller dealers. Just my opinion.

What is the barrier of entry online for dealers? Its basically laziness if they dont have any presence. There is no cost to getting an ebay account or joining forums/facebook/IG/TikTok, etc.... The market is a lot different so there is no real benefit.

I would guess people aren't going to shows to see certain dealers. The biggest draw for a straight dealer is to be able to buy inventory at a discount at a show, but when the same dealers go show after show after show they are making it harder on themselves (and more expensive).

If they stayed home and saved $120,000 (2 shows per month at $5k all in per show which is probably low) they could hire multiple people or spend more on inventory. You said you see the same 50 dealers so lets say 35 of those dealers are traveling thats $4,200,000 out of the hobby. That's not a TON of money for the overall size of the hobby but Im betting a lot of those dealers could get a lot more inventory and move a lot more if they weren't going to every show.

[KhalDrogo]

Josh, please remember that you are intelligent. Most of your “competitors” are not. They will be weeded out over the next two years. You’ll be standing.