Will we see any current active players get 500 HR or 3000 Hits?

[f2tornado]

Freeman (2267) and Altuve (2232) are both about 4 seasons away from 3k hits if they don't tail off from current production. Nobody else is even in that ballpark. Both are 34 which means it's no lock but think either could linger around long enough to get there.

Stanton and Trout are closest to 500 HRs. Both young enough to get there but both with obstacles. Stanton can't hit anything else and Trout hasn't been on the field most days the last several seasons. Goldschmidt has a non-zero chance. Not promising with his age and tailing off last season but pinstripes batting order may help. Freeman a little better chance but would likely need to linger for another 6-7 years or start pounding them like in the WS to make it sooner. Machado has a couple years advantage on age and also has a little more power stroke. He would get there in about 5 seasons on current pace. Harper in similar boat, maybe 6 seasons. Judge isn't far behind and will seemingly catch up if he stays healthy. Schwarber could conceivably get there in six seasons if he keeps the power going. He's young enough yet. I'll give Suarez a non-zero yet very small chance as he would need to stay consistent until he's 40 or find a little more power between now and then. Tall order. Betts will have ample opportunity in the LAD lineup and could get there in around 7 seasons. He does seem like the type that will age well. Jose Ramirez has some catching up to do but if mashes like he did last season then will do just that.

Everyone else is under 250 HRs. For those over 200: Lindor would need longevity and Ohtani will need to keep being Ohtani for a while. Soto is a strong candidate is he keeps doing what he's been doing. Devers can get there is he maintains his consistency over the next decade. I don't want to speculate much on anyone under 200. It's going to be hard enough for most on pace with over 200 to get there.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by LittleJimmies

On the far too early to really tell front, Bobby Witt Jr. Is one I could see doing either or both. The ability is there and I think his overall makeup (both skills and physical ability) could lead to him playing for a very long time.

Bobby is a bit of a long shot, but does have a measurable chance at both. Would love to see it, but I'd settle for either.

500 HRs: 13% chance
3,000 Hits: 19% chance

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by hammertime

Ohtani has a decent chance at 500.

Ohtani has a 53% chance at 500. I would call that reasonable. If he hits another 50 this season, he'd jump to 73%.

Though based on his track record, we can assume he'll hit 64 this year, right?

[LittleJimmies]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

Bobby is a bit of a long shot, but does have a measurable chance at both. Would love to see it, but I'd settle for either.

500 HRs: 13% chance
3,000 Hits: 19% chance

Where do those %'s come from? Figured Baseball Savant, but couldn't find them. Would love to look around at different players.

[whitmm]

The question was does any active player have a chance? The answer is yes. I know it's so much easier to look at players that have been around a while. But there are plenty of guys under 25 that could put up numbers for the next 15-18 years to get there. If you want to put a cut off of around 40.

Julio Rodriguez is at 80 hrs. 27 HR for the next 16 years gets him there. EDLC needs to average the same amount over the next 17 years. Vlad Jr needs 23 a season over the next 15 season. Could Michael Harris average 28 homers over the next 16 seasons? Absolutely. Could Tovar do the same thing playing in Colorado for the next 17 seasons? Yup.

[ClevelandIC]

Originally Posted by LittleJimmies

Where do those %'s come from? Figured Baseball Savant, but couldn't find them. Would love to look around at different players.

Same question, I fear if I'm told the answer I will lose a day of work though.

[towerymt]

Yes to all three. 500 HR, 3000 hits, 3000 strikeouts.

[eye4talent]

A 34-year-old (going into his age-35 season) with 2200+ hits is in pretty good position to reach 3000. If Altuve can get to 2400 by the end of this season, it should be smooth sailing.

Freeman has a decent chance, too.

And Manny Machado is in great shape with 1900 hits at age 32.

Keep in mind that most players are around 40 when they reach 3000 hits, so it largely depends on how long these guys can stick with it.

It’s harder to predict younger guys with around 1000 hits, but someone from the Vlad/Soto/Acuna generation is likely to keep pace.


For home runs…

Stanton
Trout
Machado
Harper
Judge
Schwarber
Olson
Ohtani
Soto
Devers
Yordan
Acuna
Guerrero

…are all possibilities—health permitting. Not everyone on this group will make it, but a list of 13 candidates should net one or more 500-HR career(s).

Mookie has an outside shot at both, but I don’t see him reaching either.

Watch out for Jose Ramirez reaching 400/400.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[rms13]

Originally Posted by towerymt

Yes to all three. 500 HR, 3000 hits, 3000 strikeouts.

Kershaw should get to 3000K Cole (2251) 34 years old and Sale (2414) 35 years old are the next guys you can start to talk about. I definitely don't think Sale can stay healthy enough to get to 3000. Cole has a better chance but I still doubt he gets there. After that I don't think there is really any active pitchers you could project to get to 3000 other then maybe Skenes. With pitchers throwing fewer innings and more teams going toward 6 man rotation it's going to be hard for guys to get to 3k

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by rms13

Kershaw should get to 3000K Cole (2251) 34 years old and Sale (2414) 35 years old are the next guys you can start to talk about. I definitely don't think Sale can stay healthy enough to get to 3000. Cole has a better chance but I still doubt he gets there. After that I don't think there is really any active pitchers you could project to get to 3000 other then maybe Skenes. With pitchers throwing fewer innings and more teams going toward 6 man rotation it's going to be hard for guys to get to 3k

Sale is another guy that gets the incorrect "can't stay healthy" tag. The whole reason he's in the conversation is because of his health.

Can he throw 150 innings a season 4 more times? For sure. And maybe it's only 3 more seasons. He's a guy that averages more than 1 k/inning. Put him on a 6 man rotation schedule. He average just under 8 strikeouts per start in 2024. That's only 74 more starts to get there.

Why is just Skenes? Dylan Cease has averaged 32.5 starts and 222 Ks per season over the last 4 seasons. He just turned 29. Logan Gilbert would need to average 177 over the next 13 seasons to get there. Freddy Peralta is another 200 k/season pitcher with 950 career strikeouts and is under 30. Jack Flaherty, if he can stay healthy, is right in that same boat as Peralta.

There were 11 pitchers that reached 200 strikeouts in 2024. And 22 that reached 180. Those are the yearly numbers you'd need to average to hit 3,000 in 15-17 seasons.

[rms13]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Sale is another guy that gets the incorrect "can't stay healthy" tag. The whole reason he's in the conversation is because of his health.

Can he throw 150 innings a season 4 more times? For sure. And maybe it's only 3 more seasons. He's a guy that averages more than 1 k/inning. Put him on a 6 man rotation schedule. He average just under 8 strikeouts per start in 2024. That's only 74 more starts to get there.

Why is just Skenes? Dylan Cease has averaged 32.5 starts and 222 Ks per season over the last 4 seasons. He just turned 29. Logan Gilbert would need to average 177 over the next 13 seasons to get there. Freddy Peralta is another 200 k/season pitcher with 950 career strikeouts and is under 30. Jack Flaherty, if he can stay healthy, is right in that same boat as Peralta.

There were 11 pitchers that reached 200 strikeouts in 2024. And 22 that reached 180. Those are the yearly numbers you'd need to average to hit 3,000 in 15-17 seasons.

Sale pitched 31 games in his last 4 years in Boston. He had a major injury every year. And then he ended last year on the IL and missed the post season.

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by rms13

Sale pitched 31 games in his last 4 years in Boston. He had a major injury every year. And then he ended last year on the IL and missed the post season.

Context matters.

2020: TJS. Plus it would have been a shortened season anyway.

2021: Recovering from 2020 TJS

2022: rib stress fracture during batting practice. Broken pinkie from a line drive. Broken wrist from a bicycle accident. To sum up, a bunch of fluke things.

2023: 20 starts. Some shoulder inflammation in the middle of the season, most likely from having not pitched for roughly 3 seasons.

2024: 29 starts. They also ran a 6 man rotation the majority of the year.

Yeah, it's really easy to skew stats when 2 seasons are missed for 1 injury (not counting the whole shortened season thing either). The arm wasn't the issue at the end of 2024. And he's averaged 24.5 starts per season the last two years.

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

I wonder what the odds are for Luis Arraez getting to 3000 hits.

[ThoseBackPages]

yes, absolutely

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

Originally Posted by Nostalgia

Maybe if he stayed in the Bronx.

Money over moonshots. Can't say I blame him.

Still has a good shot at 500 barring injury. He seems like the kind of guy who'll play in his early 40s. He loves baseball. Hopefully he stays healthy.

[ObanMontecristo]

If we’re looking at potential 3000K guys, Aaron Nola’s got a shot- he’s been pretty durable and puts up right around 200Ks or more every year. Sitting at 1779 at age 32

[Noles939913]

Originally Posted by JohnnyHatesJazz

I wonder what the odds are for Luis Arraez getting to 3000 hits.

Not great considering not many people are going to want a slow DH with no power.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by LittleJimmies

Where do those %'s come from? Figured Baseball Savant, but couldn't find them. Would love to look around at different players.

Originally Posted by ClevelandIC

Same question, I fear if I'm told the answer I will lose a day of work though.

No problem. I’m using Bill James’ Favorite Toy. He published it in one of his old Abstract and I’ve studied it for years. It is uncannily accurate.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by JohnnyHatesJazz

I wonder what the odds are for Luis Arraez getting to 3000 hits.

Arraez has an 18% chance.

[Skipscards]

Sale has a 51% chance at 3,000 Ks
Nola has a 42% chance.

[rms13]

Originally Posted by whitmm

Context matters.

2020: TJS. Plus it would have been a shortened season anyway.

2021: Recovering from 2020 TJS

2022: rib stress fracture during batting practice. Broken pinkie from a line drive. Broken wrist from a bicycle accident. To sum up, a bunch of fluke things.

2023: 20 starts. Some shoulder inflammation in the middle of the season, most likely from having not pitched for roughly 3 seasons.

2024: 29 starts. They also ran a 6 man rotation the majority of the year.

Yeah, it's really easy to skew stats when 2 seasons are missed for 1 injury (not counting the whole shortened season thing either). The arm wasn't the issue at the end of 2024. And he's averaged 24.5 starts per season the last two years.

You summed it up great. He's been hurt for the past 5 seasons. The idea of him having 3 more seasons of at least 150 ip seems as likely as Trout playing more then 100 games in a season at this point.

[rms13]

Originally Posted by Noles939913

Not great considering not many people are going to want a slow DH with no power.

He's destined to be playing in Japan in a couple of years

[whitmm]

Originally Posted by rms13

You summed it up great. He's been hurt for the past 5 seasons. The idea of him having 3 more seasons of at least 150 ip seems as likely as Trout playing more then 100 games in a season at this point.

You missed the whole point. You're trying to say he's had all these major issues, like they were related to pitching.

One injury cost him two seasons. And part of a third season due to having not pitched in three years.

A line drive and bike accident are fluke things. And he's not swinging a bat anymore. 2024 proved the arm issues are in the past. He's not even close to Mike Trout.

Again, 24.5 starts a year the last two years. Averaged 6+ innings in 29 starts last season. So yeah, 3 more seasons of 150 innings seems very plausible. GTFOH with focusing on an injury that happened nearly 5 years ago. I listened to this same BS all of last off season and most of the season, and he went out and won the CYA.

[49ersSF]

Just as important, Freddie Freeman is closing in on 1,000 extra-base hits. He currently is at 882. He would be just the 40th player of all-time to do so.

Freddie also currently has 508 double. Only 18 players have ever accomplished 600 doubles.

[Archangel1775]

Stanton is the closest and will get their first, especially with him only playing the 2nd half of every season and the playoffs until that nutty contract with the Yankees is up.

Giancarlo Stanton

Current Home Runs Career: 429

Age 35 Season in 2025: Under Contract
Age 36 Season in 2026: Under Contract
Age 37 Season in 2027: Under Contract
Age 38 Season in 2028: Club Option

Current HR Average Last 4 Years: 29.25
Current At-Bats Average Last 4 Years: 459