25% of HOF votes are in and the leaders are...

[SportsAutoFreak]

Originally Posted by speedyjg13

I dont understand why people want Raines to make it. No MVP, no 3000 hits, 1 silver slugger, no gold gloves, 1 batting title, 3 WS rings (which he was more riding on other people's success, kinda like a scrub player does on a WS team each year). Someone please justify Raines belonging in the hall of fame. His addition will only water it down, almost as if there was nobody to vote in so they just picked one and let him in just to say someone got in.

How many players are in the Hall of Fame without 3000 hits or an MVP? I must've missed the part where that was a prerequisite. He was the prototypical leadoff man in the N.L. of his day. There's a lot to justify his addition to Cooperstown and not at all would he water it down.

[Mikegioseffi]

The HOF is already super watered down imo.
Out of this crowd the only two of put in are Griffey and piazza.
Honestly any writer who doesn't vote for Griffey should have his voting rights pulled.
Although in know it won't happen if love to see griff get 100%

[speedyjg13]

Originally Posted by SportsAutoFreak

How many players are in the Hall of Fame without 3000 hits or an MVP? I must've missed the part where that was a prerequisite. He was the prototypical leadoff man in the N.L. of his day. There's a lot to justify his addition to Cooperstown and not at all would he water it down.

While MVP, 3000 hits and other significant milestones are not a prerequisite for entry into the Hall of Fame, (as has been debated numerous times here) they certainly help. Sure he stole alot of bases but that in and of itself should not warrant entry. Please justify for us why Mr Raines belongs in the Hall of Fame.

[signal_fifty]

Originally Posted by SportsAutoFreak

How many players are in the Hall of Fame without 3000 hits or an MVP? I must've missed the part where that was a prerequisite. He was the prototypical leadoff man in the N.L. of his day. There's a lot to justify his addition to Cooperstown and not at all would he water it down.

I'm curious as to what you mean by "a lot to justify his addition to Cooperstown".

[SportsAutoFreak]

Originally Posted by speedyjg13

While MVP, 3000 hits and other significant milestones are not a prerequisite for entry into the Hall of Fame, (as has been debated numerous times here) they certainly help. Sure he stole alot of bases but that in and of itself should not warrant entry. Please justify for us why Mr Raines belongs in the Hall of Fame.

How about the actual value that he brought to his team? The wins he was worth. The ability to not only steal base but hit, get on base and score a ton of runs. He wasn't one dimensional like Vince Coleman. How about Raines being better than a lot of leftfielders in the Hall of Fame, like Lou Brock?

[SportsAutoFreak]

Originally Posted by signal_fifty

I'm curious as to what you mean by "a lot to justify his addition to Cooperstown".

See my post above this one.

[SportsAutoFreak]

Then Heyman says it's not a court of law, which it isn't, but excuse me while I break out my tin foil hat in regards to Piazza and Bagwell. These two have been retired how many years? They've been on the ballot how many years? The Mitchell Report was released how many years ago?

Tell me this isn't a witch hunt. Tell me some writers won't stop until they get the answers they want to get, regardless of the facts. Then he thinks Piazza is a more worthy candidate than Bagwell is.

Hey Jon, Bill James in his abstract named Bagwell No. 45 in his Top 100 which included both pitchers and Negro Leaguers. Forget about just being a Top 100, much less Top 50 MLB position player, Bagwell is Top 50 with those two variables thrown in.

Gosh I wish more people knew just how truly great he was.

[tkraft24]

With regards to Tim Raines, I think it's annoying how much consideration he gets while Kenny Lofton was completely cast aside. They were very similar players, no?

[SportsAutoFreak]

I think Lofton got shafted for sure, like Edmonds is now.

[SportsAutoFreak]

This is why I disagree with the logic that if you have to think about if someone was a Hall of Famer, they aren't. Some do it with a lower profile, or don't have a strong backing. Then you might look and the numbers and think, 'Hey, he's got a more deserving case than I thought.'

Not a player's fault if they're not hyped up by the MLB marketing machine.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by speedyjg13

While MVP, 3000 hits and other significant milestones are not a prerequisite for entry into the Hall of Fame, (as has been debated numerous times here) they certainly help. Sure he stole alot of bases but that in and of itself should not warrant entry. Please justify for us why Mr Raines belongs in the Hall of Fame.

I support Raines as a Hall of Famer. Keep in mind, I do not consider him on the Ruth-Cobb-Williams-Mays-Mantle level of Outfielders. The Hall stopped being that long, long ago. But I do think his inclusion is ok and consider him a borderline Hall of Famer (someone inevitably will be on the border). Also note, this is merely a surface justification as I don't have the time to do my normal analysis and not one of these things alone justify his inclusion. These are merely some of the things that make me think of him as a Hall of Famer...

1. He's arguably the 2nd greatesr leadoff hitter in history. Trouble is, he played at the same time as the greatest (Rickey).
2. He was an on base machine...consider, Raines got on base more times than Tony Gwynn.
3. He stole 808 bases, 5th most in history. This doesn't make you a Hall of Famer, but the four who had more are all in the Hall of Fame (Rickey, Brock, Hamilton, and Cobb).
4. Career WAR is 69.1. I think WAR is way overused as "the" stat but it does have a place as one of the things to consider and Raines' WAR is great. Nearly every (non-steroid) eligible player with 69+ WAR has been inducted. (Also of note, the average HOF Left Fielder has 65.1 so Raines is above the average HOFer at his position.)
5. Post season record. While he has just one ring and he wasn't the best player on that team by a longshot, his overall postseason record is good. His OBP .340 in 34 Games. Exactly what you'd want from your leadoff hitter. He was particularly great in Championship Series.
6. Uniqueness. Uniqueness isn't in and of itself something that screams HOFer. But when you look at the Hall, it is filled with guys that have done things we've never seen before. They are unique. The most similar player in history to Raines is Lou Brock and their similarity score is just 863. That is not very similar. Similar players among Raines' 10 most similar include 4 HOFers: Brock, Max Carey, Fred Clarke, and Enos Slaughter.
7. 123 OPS+....of all Left Fielders in history who came to the plate 10,000+ times, only 5 had a higher OPS+: Rickey, Zack Wheat, Yaz, Billy Williams, and Bonds. 4 HOFers and Bonds.
8. 7 time All-Star (making 7 All-Star appearances certainly doesn't make you a HOFer, but most HOFers made a bunch of All-Star appearances)
9. Won a batting title. Yeah, not overly exciting, but he did.
10. Nickname is Rock. Gotta have a cool nickname.

Again, this is merely the surface of the case on Raines. For me it is good enough. But I don't get to vote yet.

[SportsAutoFreak]

I'm also a Raines supporter, though I think a cool nickname is superficial when debating Cooperstown.

I hope, sometime tomorrow, to run my own objective Keltner List on Jeff Bagwell.

[hofcollector2]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

I support Raines as a Hall of Famer. Keep in mind, I do not consider him on the Ruth-Cobb-Williams-Mays-Mantle level of Outfielders. The Hall stopped being that long, long ago. But I do think his inclusion is ok and consider him a borderline Hall of Famer (someone inevitably will be on the border). Also note, this is merely a surface justification as I don't have the time to do my normal analysis and not one of these things alone justify his inclusion. These are merely some of the things that make me think of him as a Hall of Famer...

1. He's arguably the 2nd greatesr leadoff hitter in history. Trouble is, he played at the same time as the greatest (Rickey).
2. He was an on base machine...consider, Raines got on base more times than Tony Gwynn.
3. He stole 808 bases, 5th most in history. This doesn't make you a Hall of Famer, but the four who had more are all in the Hall of Fame (Rickey, Brock, Hamilton, and Cobb).
4. Career WAR is 69.1. I think WAR is way overused as "the" stat but it does have a place as one of the things to consider and Raines' WAR is great. Nearly every (non-steroid) eligible player with 69+ WAR has been inducted. (Also of note, the average HOF Left Fielder has 65.1 so Raines is above the average HOFer at his position.)
5. Post season record. While he has just one ring and he wasn't the best player on that team by a longshot, his overall postseason record is good. His OBP .340 in 34 Games. Exactly what you'd want from your leadoff hitter. He was particularly great in Championship Series.
6. Uniqueness. Uniqueness isn't in and of itself something that screams HOFer. But when you look at the Hall, it is filled with guys that have done things we've never seen before. They are unique. The most similar player in history to Raines is Lou Brock and their similarity score is just 863. That is not very similar. Similar players among Raines' 10 most similar include 4 HOFers: Brock, Max Carey, Fred Clarke, and Enos Slaughter.
7. 123 OPS+....of all Left Fielders in history who came to the plate 10,000+ times, only 5 had a higher OPS+: Rickey, Zack Wheat, Yaz, Billy Williams, and Bonds. 4 HOFers and Bonds.
8. 7 time All-Star (making 7 All-Star appearances certainly doesn't make you a HOFer, but most HOFers made a bunch of All-Star appearances)
9. Won a batting title. Yeah, not overly exciting, but he did.
10. Nickname is Rock. Gotta have a cool nickname.

Again, this is merely the surface of the case on Raines. For me it is good enough. But I don't get to vote yet.

I like the last reason the most, lol

[VeedonFleece]

A fair number of previously eligible voters (~100?) were culled after last year's voting. The majority of those were 'private ballot' types, so I'd expect the revealed numbers to be a little closer than in previous years.

Still, I'm sticking to my 'definitely Griffey, maybe Piazza, forget the rest' prediction.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by SportsAutoFreak

How about the actual value that he brought to his team? The wins he was worth. The ability to not only steal base but hit, get on base and score a ton of runs. He wasn't one dimensional like Vince Coleman. How about Raines being better than a lot of leftfielders in the Hall of Fame, like Lou Brock?

Theoretical value, you are talking about WAR. Actual value is leading your team to 2 World Championships and being a Curt Flood misplay from a third.

It is said the most difficult thing to do is hit a baseball. Doing it successfully 3000 times makes a player a hofer. Brock did it, Raines didn't. Walks are overrated, but at least as a leadoff guy they have some value.

Raines stole a lot of bases, but is only 5th on the all time list. When elected, Brock was first. Being the best gets you in the hof, one of the best gets you votes. Raines scored a lot of runs, Brock scored more.

Lou Brock was one of the best postseason players of all time. .391 batting average, OPS over 1.000 and 14 SBs in 21 games. Raines was pretty mediocre, worse than in the regular season.

Raines also had a problem with coke. While that doesn't exclude you from the hof, it does cost you votes. Just ask Fergie Jenkins. It may be enough to keep him out for a while.

So, no he really wasn't better than Lou Brock. Raines is a classic borderline hofer. If he is elected by the BBWAA he would be among the worst players they would elect, but not the worst. If he goes to the veterans committee, he would not be the best they elected.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

I support Raines as a Hall of Famer. Keep in mind, I do not consider him on the Ruth-Cobb-Williams-Mays-Mantle level of Outfielders. The Hall stopped being that long, long ago. But I do think his inclusion is ok and consider him a borderline Hall of Famer (someone inevitably will be on the border). Also note, this is merely a surface justification as I don't have the time to do my normal analysis and not one of these things alone justify his inclusion. These are merely some of the things that make me think of him as a Hall of Famer...

1. He's arguably the 2nd greatesr leadoff hitter in history. Trouble is, he played at the same time as the greatest (Rickey).
2. He was an on base machine...consider, Raines got on base more times than Tony Gwynn.
3. He stole 808 bases, 5th most in history. This doesn't make you a Hall of Famer, but the four who had more are all in the Hall of Fame (Rickey, Brock, Hamilton, and Cobb).
4. Career WAR is 69.1. I think WAR is way overused as "the" stat but it does have a place as one of the things to consider and Raines' WAR is great. Nearly every (non-steroid) eligible player with 69+ WAR has been inducted. (Also of note, the average HOF Left Fielder has 65.1 so Raines is above the average HOFer at his position.)
5. Post season record. While he has just one ring and he wasn't the best player on that team by a longshot, his overall postseason record is good. His OBP .340 in 34 Games. Exactly what you'd want from your leadoff hitter. He was particularly great in Championship Series.
6. Uniqueness. Uniqueness isn't in and of itself something that screams HOFer. But when you look at the Hall, it is filled with guys that have done things we've never seen before. They are unique. The most similar player in history to Raines is Lou Brock and their similarity score is just 863. That is not very similar. Similar players among Raines' 10 most similar include 4 HOFers: Brock, Max Carey, Fred Clarke, and Enos Slaughter.
7. 123 OPS+....of all Left Fielders in history who came to the plate 10,000+ times, only 5 had a higher OPS+: Rickey, Zack Wheat, Yaz, Billy Williams, and Bonds. 4 HOFers and Bonds.
8. 7 time All-Star (making 7 All-Star appearances certainly doesn't make you a HOFer, but most HOFers made a bunch of All-Star appearances)
9. Won a batting title. Yeah, not overly exciting, but he did.
10. Nickname is Rock. Gotta have a cool nickname.

Again, this is merely the surface of the case on Raines. For me it is good enough. But I don't get to vote yet.

1. Mays hit leadoff. So did Rose, Ichiro, Boggs and Brock. Raines really isn't the second best leadoff hitter. He is second best as a combo of OBP and SBs.

2. Gwynn did have a higher OBP. Hits are more valuable than walks.

3. 5th in SBs plus a good OBP are the real case for his election. Is that really enough?

4. Alan Trammell has a higher WAR, that isn't getting him elected. This just shows the flaws in WAR, over valuing SS defense or walks.

5. His postseason record is not good .340 OBP is way below his regular season. OPS under .700 is not good. Only 3 SBs is not good. If you want to see a good postseason player, look at Lou Brock above.

6. Similar to Lou Brock does not make you a hofer. Lou is one of the lower end guys elected by the BBWAA. However, Lou has 3000 hits, retired number one in SBs and had a good postseason resume.

7.OPS+ 123 is not very good for an OF. LF along with 1b is were teams hide bad fielders, see Adam Dunn. If he was a C or SS it would be a positive.

8. Bill Freehan 11AS games, Steve Garvey 10, should they be hof?

9. Bill Madlock won 4 batting titles. Should he be hof?

I said earlier that I would lean to Raines in the hof, but I could go either way. I think he will eventually make it, but it may be the Veterans Committee that elects him.

[SportsAutoFreak]

Originally Posted by rats60

Theoretical value, you are talking about WAR. Actual value is leading your team to 2 World Championships and being a Curt Flood misplay from a third.

It is said the most difficult thing to do is hit a baseball. Doing it successfully 3000 times makes a player a hofer. Brock did it, Raines didn't. Walks are overrated, but at least as a leadoff guy they have some value.

Raines stole a lot of bases, but is only 5th on the all time list. When elected, Brock was first. Being the best gets you in the hof, one of the best gets you votes. Raines scored a lot of runs, Brock scored more.

Lou Brock was one of the best postseason players of all time. .391 batting average, OPS over 1.000 and 14 SBs in 21 games. Raines was pretty mediocre, worse than in the regular season.

Raines also had a problem with coke. While that doesn't exclude you from the hof, it does cost you votes. Just ask Fergie Jenkins. It may be enough to keep him out for a while.

So, no he really wasn't better than Lou Brock. Raines is a classic borderline hofer. If he is elected by the BBWAA he would be among the worst players they would elect, but not the worst. If he goes to the veterans committee, he would not be the best they elected.

What you're cherry picking and failing to point out is the things that you use to discredit Raines are things in which he is better than Brock in.

You say that a 123 OPS+ is not good for an outfielder. Why didn't you share that Brock had an OPS+ of 109?

You talk about Raines having a high OBP, I must point out that OBP is higher than Brock.

You completely negate defense, in which Raines was clearly the better defender than Brock was.

Then there's stolen bases. Yes, Brock had more steals than Raines did, and Raines stole a lot. Do you know about stolen base percentage? Did you know that out of the top five in history with the most stolen bases, that Raines has a higher stolen base percentage? He is 13th highest all time in that category.

To be fair, players in the top 10 of stolen base percentage include Alexi Casilla, Craig Gentry, Kaz Matsui and Eric Byrnes, but none of them stole as many as Rock did, who is 13th in percentage. This tells me not only did Raines steal a lot but he was better at avoiding getting caught.

However, what isn't factored in is the minimum of attempts. Among a minimum of 300 attempts, Raines is second only to Beltran all time for stolen base percentage in that many attempts.

[VeedonFleece]

Originally Posted by rats60

Walks are overrated

I'll not take exception to everything you say, since I agree that Raines is essentially a borderline candidate, though he makes my list.

I don't get the quoted, though. Here's the top 30 in BB:

1. Barry Bonds (22) 2558 L
2. Rickey Henderson+ (25) 2190 R
3. Babe Ruth+ (22) 2062 L
4. Ted Williams+ (19) 2021 L
5. Joe Morgan+ (22) 1865 L
6. Carl Yastrzemski+ (23) 1845 L
7. Jim Thome (22) 1747 L
8. Mickey Mantle+ (18) 1733 B
9. Mel Ott+ (22) 1708 L
10. Frank Thomas+ (19) 1667 R
11. Eddie Yost (18) 1614 R
12. Darrell Evans (21) 1605 L
13. Stan Musial+ (22) 1599 L
14. Pete Rose (24) 1566 B
15. Harmon Killebrew+ (22) 1559 R
16. Chipper Jones (19) 1512 B
17. Lou Gehrig+ (17) 1508 L
18. Mike Schmidt+ (18) 1507 R
19. Eddie Collins+ (25) 1499 L
20. Bobby Abreu (18) 1476 L
21. Gary Sheffield (22) 1475 R
22. Willie Mays+ (22) 1464 R
23. Jimmie Foxx+ (20) 1452 R
24. Eddie Mathews+ (17) 1444 L
25. Frank Robinson+ (21) 1420 R
26. Wade Boggs+ (18) 1412 L
27. Hank Aaron+ (23) 1402 R
28. Jeff Bagwell (15) 1401 R
29. Dwight Evans (20) 1391 R
30. Tris Speaker+ (22) 1381 L

That's a helluva list. Raines is 37th, btw.

Originally Posted by SportsAutoFreak

What you're cherry picking and failing to point out....

Well countered, SAF.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by rats60

1. Mays hit leadoff. So did Rose, Ichiro, Boggs and Brock. Raines really isn't the second best leadoff hitter. He is second best as a combo of OBP and SBs.

2. Gwynn did have a higher OBP. Hits are more valuable than walks.

3. 5th in SBs plus a good OBP are the real case for his election. Is that really enough?

4. Alan Trammell has a higher WAR, that isn't getting him elected. This just shows the flaws in WAR, over valuing SS defense or walks.

5. His postseason record is not good .340 OBP is way below his regular season. OPS under .700 is not good. Only 3 SBs is not good. If you want to see a good postseason player, look at Lou Brock above.

6. Similar to Lou Brock does not make you a hofer. Lou is one of the lower end guys elected by the BBWAA. However, Lou has 3000 hits, retired number one in SBs and had a good postseason resume.

7.OPS+ 123 is not very good for an OF. LF along with 1b is were teams hide bad fielders, see Adam Dunn. If he was a C or SS it would be a positive.

8. Bill Freehan 11AS games, Steve Garvey 10, should they be hof?

9. Bill Madlock won 4 batting titles. Should he be hof?

I said earlier that I would lean to Raines in the hof, but I could go either way. I think he will eventually make it, but it may be the Veterans Committee that elects him.

Rats, I was pretty clear that I was just providing a surface justification and wasn't digging that deep. I wasn't trying to defend Raines' case, I just answering the question of what the case for Raines looks like. As for your points...

Mays rarely batted leadoff. He almost exclusively batted 3rd his entire career. Boggs led off less than half his career. He spent more time hitting 2nd and 3rd. Rose, I'll grant you, hit leadoff a lot but Raines did it better. When batting leadoff: OPS: Rose .798 Raines .813, OBP: Rose .379 Raines .385, Runs/Game: Rose .66 Raines .71. As for Ichiro, when batting leadoff his OPS: .785, OBP: .366, and R/G: .65 are all worse than Raines. So, in the context of leadoff hitter, yes, Raines is the 2nd best of all-time.

I didn't say he was better than Gwynn or that walks were better than hits. I was just pointing out he got on base a ton and used Gywnn as an example of someone he got on base more times than. Someone thought of as getting on base a lot. That's all.

Trammell should absolutely be in.

.340 on base against the best teams in the most important situations? Yeah, I'd say that's doing his job.

Similar to Brock is similar to a Hall of Famer. Being similar to other Hall of Famers (plural) is absolutely a reason to induct someone.

LF is a place to hide bad outfielders? I disagree. See Alex Gordon. I don't think he's being hidden in LF and last I checked he was pretty dang good out there. I also think Yaz and Bonds weren't being hidden in LF.

Again, I even said making All-Star games doesn't make one a HOFer. But most HOFers did play in a lot of All-Star games. And sure, put Garvey in.

Did I say winning a batting title makes you a HOFer? I was just mentioning his accomplishments and that is an accomplishment.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by SportsAutoFreak

What you're cherry picking and failing to point out is the things that you use to discredit Raines are things in which he is better than Brock in.
.

There is no cherry picking. If Brock wasn't #1 in steals and a member of 3000 hit club, he would be borderline too. What you are ignoring are the areas where Brock is much better, which are also areas which are important to hof voters.

[SportsAutoFreak]

Originally Posted by rats60

There is no cherry picking. If Brock wasn't #1 in steals and a member of 3000 hit club, he would be borderline too. What you are ignoring are the areas where Brock is much better, which are also areas which are important to hof voters.

You seem to think because Brock has more of the stats the voters look at that he was a better player.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by VeedonFleece

I'll not take exception to everything you say, since I agree that Raines is essentially a borderline candidate, though he makes my list.

I don't get the quoted, though. Here's the top 30 in BB:

1. Barry Bonds (22) 2558 L
2. Rickey Henderson+ (25) 2190 R
3. Babe Ruth+ (22) 2062 L
4. Ted Williams+ (19) 2021 L
5. Joe Morgan+ (22) 1865 L
6. Carl Yastrzemski+ (23) 1845 L
7. Jim Thome (22) 1747 L
8. Mickey Mantle+ (18) 1733 B
9. Mel Ott+ (22) 1708 L
10. Frank Thomas+ (19) 1667 R
11. Eddie Yost (18) 1614 R
12. Darrell Evans (21) 1605 L
13. Stan Musial+ (22) 1599 L
14. Pete Rose (24) 1566 B
15. Harmon Killebrew+ (22) 1559 R
16. Chipper Jones (19) 1512 B
17. Lou Gehrig+ (17) 1508 L
18. Mike Schmidt+ (18) 1507 R
19. Eddie Collins+ (25) 1499 L
20. Bobby Abreu (18) 1476 L
21. Gary Sheffield (22) 1475 R
22. Willie Mays+ (22) 1464 R
23. Jimmie Foxx+ (20) 1452 R
24. Eddie Mathews+ (17) 1444 L
25. Frank Robinson+ (21) 1420 R
26. Wade Boggs+ (18) 1412 L
27. Hank Aaron+ (23) 1402 R
28. Jeff Bagwell (15) 1401 R
29. Dwight Evans (20) 1391 R
30. Tris Speaker+ (22) 1381 L

That's a helluva list. Raines is 37th, btw.




Well countered, SAF.

Walks are overrated compared to hits and overvalued by war. Yost, Evans, Abreu were not great players, pretty much proves my point. Guys 11th or 12th in hits are going into the hof, as long as clean, not so for walks. Someone walking alot, which is half of the argument for Raines doesn't make a strong case for hof.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by SportsAutoFreak

You seem to think because Brock has more of the stats the voters look at that he was a better player.

He is in the hof because of those stats. He was a better player because while they were similar players in the regular season, Brock was exceptional in the most important games while Raines was mediocre. I will take championships over theoretical value.

[SportsAutoFreak]

Originally Posted by rats60

He is in the hof because of those stats. He was a better player because while they were similar players in the regular season, Brock was exceptional in the most important games while Raines was mediocre. I will take championships over theoretical value.

I think Raines has a distinct advantage in the regular season. Also, Evans and Abreu have been discussed as potential Hall candidates.

[VeedonFleece]

Originally Posted by rats60

Walks are overrated compared to hits and overvalued by war. Yost, Evans, Abreu were not great players, pretty much proves my point. Guys 11th or 12th in hits are going into the hof, as long as clean, not so for walks. Someone walking alot, which is half of the argument for Raines doesn't make a strong case for hof.

Who is overrating walks compared to hits? I could just as easily say you are underrating them. If you believe that WAR overvalues them, how much do you think it overvalues them by?