2020 Politics Thread - Enter At Your Own Risk - RULES IN OP

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by jarrodsalas

If you rely strictly on CNN for your news then I feel sorry for you. ANyone with half a brain would see how biased they are. Three years ago it was subtle. Today it is full blown.

YES. CNN is ridiculous.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

Ok....Not sure what the angle here is chaps, but clearly the way you are apparently selling, this must be bad for the dems:

Explain it to me:

1. More people are mailing in votes. More than ever before.
2. People apparently don't know how to fill out a voting ballot and a large number will be thrown out.

So how is this bad for the dems? Because more dems are voting via the mail and more pubs are voting in person?

Seems to me trumps demographic is the older population, who will likely vote via the mail, while dems have the younger demographic and will vote in person.

What am I missing???

If every person who intends to vote, votes, then it hurts the Dems considerably to have a lot of their votes come by mail, vs. the Republicans who will have a lot of their votes come via in-person.

Take Florida as an example. The state has almost the same number of registered Dems as it does Republicans. 5.5 million each. Now take the current # of ballots cast by mail (so far, the disparity grows daily).

Democrats - 1,221,809
Republicans - 753,711

Working just off these numbers (they will get larger) and assuming the standard 1.4% discard rate AND assuming the errors occur evenly between Dems and Republicans (they don't, Dems make more errors every report suggests) you would end up w/ the following # of votes tossed.

Democrats - 17,105
Republicans - 10,551

By accident, Democrats invalidated a ~6,600 Florida vote by mail "advantage" so far. If Republicans bring out there numbers in person, where a vote in person is rarely discarded... advantage R's across the country simply in the way they are voting.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Working just off these numbers (they will get larger) and assuming the standard 1.4% discard rate AND assuming the errors occur evenly between Dems and Republicans (they don't, Dems make more errors every report suggests) you would end up w/ the following # of votes tossed.

And specifically the other part that helps Trump is that the discard rate for mail in voting across ethnicity is

0.7% white
3.1% minority

Knowing where Trump will get the majority of his votes, the more votes that come by mail for the blue team, the better for the red team.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

If every person who intends to vote, votes, then it hurts the Dems considerably to have a lot of their votes come by mail, vs. the Republicans who will have a lot of their votes come via in-person.

Take Florida as an example. The state has almost the same number of registered Dems as it does Republicans. 5.5 million each. Now take the current # of ballots cast by mail (so far, the disparity grows daily).

Democrats - 1,221,809
Republicans - 753,711

Working just off these numbers (they will get larger) and assuming the standard 1.4% discard rate AND assuming the errors occur evenly between Dems and Republicans (they don't, Dems make more errors every report suggests) you would end up w/ the following # of votes tossed.

Democrats - 17,105
Republicans - 10,551

By accident, Democrats invalidated a ~6,600 Florida vote by mail "advantage" so far. If Republicans bring out there numbers in person, where a vote in person is rarely discarded... advantage R's across the country simply in the way they are voting.

You are speaking in a lot of "if's"---assuming republicans are voting in person over dems when you have have no idea at this juncture. I say the fact more dems are voting early by mail bodes very well for them.



And you are referencing one state of 50.



I guess we will see.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

And specifically the other part that helps Trump is that the discard rate for mail in voting across ethnicity is

0.7% white
3.1% minority

Knowing where Trump will get the majority of his votes, the more votes that come by mail for the blue team, the better for the red team.

WaPo essentially yelling to the Dems ... DON'T VOTE BY MAIL

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...llions-voters/

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

You are speaking in a lot of "if's"---assuming republicans are voting in person over dems when you have have no idea at this juncture. I say the fact more dems are voting early by mail bodes very well for them.



And you are referencing one state of 50.



I guess we will see.

All states are the same right now, many others much more skewed. If you believe Republicans don't show up on Nov. 3rd than none of this matters but if they vote in the same #'s as Democrats, simply in person, then they get a huge advantage.

Nationwide, the totals are currently: (For states that track party)

Democrats - 6,042,402
Republicans - 2,656,577

There's no reason to expect Republicans not to vote on election day.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

All states are the same right now, many others much more skewed. If you believe Republicans don't show up on Nov. 3rd than none of this matters but if they vote in the same #'s as Democrats, simply in person, then they get a huge advantage.

There's no reason to expect Republicans not to vote.

Like I said, we will see.


You are also forgetting registered republicans (like me) who may vote democratic this time. I'm sure there will also be dems who may go republican.


I just don't think it's that cut and dry.


Everyone thought hilary was the forgone winner in 2016. I still say trump wins, but I also wouldn't be surprised if biden won handily.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

Like I said, we will see.


You are also forgetting registered republicans (like me) who may vote democratic this time. I'm sure there will also be dems who may go republican.


I just don't think it's that cut and dry.


Everyone thought hilary was the forgone winner in 2016. I still say trump wins, but I also wouldn't be surprised if biden won handily.

I have no idea who wins but I know two things w/ 100% certainty.

At least 1% of all voters who vote by mail will not have their votes counted.
Republicans will benefit tremendously from the count of votes who do not count.

Biden may very well win anyway. But if Trump wins close; I'm willing to wager the vote by mail push to be the #1 reason why Trump won.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

I have no idea who wins but I know two things w/ 100% certainty.

At least 1% of all voters who vote by mail will not have their votes counted.
Republicans will benefit tremendously from the count of votes who do not count.

Biden may very well win anyway. But if Trump wins close; I'm willing to wager the vote by mail push to be the #1 reason why Trump won.

Then why is trump saying voting by mail is a fraud/doesn't work, etc???


I don't get the spin on this.


If it's such an advantage for the pubs, he should 100% encourage voting by mail.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

[/B]


Then why is trump saying voting by mail is a fraud/doesn't work, etc???


I don't get the spin on this.


If it's such an advantage for the pubs, he should 100% encourage voting by mail.

You're not getting it.

It's an advantage for the Republicans that Dems are voting by mail. He doesn't want any Republican voting by mail ... he wants them voting in person so their vote counts!

[jlzinck]

If, in 16 days from now, the orange moron wins a 2nd term you can thank despicable people like this.

https://tbdailynews.com/elderly-vete...KzBN2eeXPwGVqI

[JustRachel]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

All states are the same right now, many others much more skewed. If you believe Republicans don't show up on Nov. 3rd than none of this matters but if they vote in the same #'s as Democrats, simply in person, then they get a huge advantage.

Nationwide, the totals are currently: (For states that track party)

Democrats - 6,042,402
Republicans - 2,656,577

There's no reason to expect Republicans not to vote on election day.

This is just dumb. C'mon.

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk

[NeedChapmans]

Already, even before opening the envelopes, 12,000 ballots in Florida have been rejected.

https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/202...lorida-column/

Disproportionally effecting minority voters.

0.87% black
1.00% latino
0.37% white

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

You're not getting it.

It's an advantage for the Republicans that Dems are voting by mail. He doesn't want any Republican voting by mail ... he wants them voting in person so their vote counts!

Well, let's be honest here: with his history mixed messaging and confusion, he's not doing himself any favors.

like I said, this will be interesting.

[Onions]

Originally Posted by JustRachel

This is just dumb. C'mon.

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk

Why is it dumb? All he is saying is that more absentee ballots get discarded than in person ballots, and he is right.

[NeedChapmans]

In North Carolina; you need to complete witness info. So far in NC, Dem ballots getting rejected at a higher rate (and a lot more of them).

[NeedChapmans]

Laugh these people off the planet.

[Onions]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

Well, let's be honest here: with his history mixed messaging and confusion, he's not doing himself any favors.

like I said, this will be interesting.

If Trump says don't vote by mail, 50% of the democrats will instinctively do it. It is hilarious to watch. 1-3% of their vote erased right off the top. Gonna miss the guy when he cannot run in 2024.

[Onions]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Laugh these people off the planet.

The Grim Reaper

[DegaBama]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Laugh these people off the planet.

Another example of the media brainwashing the general public.

[coltsnsox07]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

In North Carolina; you need to complete witness info. So far in NC, Dem ballots getting rejected at a higher rate (and a lot more of them).

They need to make a tv ad explaining to the dumb people about the witness info being filled out, I had to sign one for someone at work who was dropping their ballot off after work and had no clue that part was on there.

[yanksfan1]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

If every person who intends to vote, votes, then it hurts the Dems considerably to have a lot of their votes come by mail, vs. the Republicans who will have a lot of their votes come via in-person.

Take Florida as an example. The state has almost the same number of registered Dems as it does Republicans. 5.5 million each. Now take the current # of ballots cast by mail (so far, the disparity grows daily).

Democrats - 1,221,809
Republicans - 753,711

Working just off these numbers (they will get larger) and assuming the standard 1.4% discard rate AND assuming the errors occur evenly between Dems and Republicans (they don't, Dems make more errors every report suggests) you would end up w/ the following # of votes tossed.

Democrats - 17,105
Republicans - 10,551

By accident, Democrats invalidated a ~6,600 Florida vote by mail "advantage" so far. If Republicans bring out there numbers in person, where a vote in person is rarely discarded... advantage R's across the country simply in the way they are voting.

This could be true, but it also assumes that everyone who votes by mail would otherwise vote in person if they had to. There could be a lot of people, primarily older people susceptible to COVID, who are only voting because mail is an option, so they may end up netting more votes than they otherwise would get even if some get rejected.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/sta...752374784?s=20

Also according to this, in Broward county, one of the most Dem leaning counties in FL, of the first 200K mail-in ballots, less than 400 had issues, some of which can be cured.

[CoolG]

https://bookies.com/news/presidentia...-daily-tracker
Bet if you like it

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by yanksfan1

This could be true, but it also assumes that everyone who votes by mail would otherwise vote in person if they had to. There could be a lot of people, primarily older people susceptible to COVID, who are only voting because mail is an option, so they may end up netting more votes than they otherwise would get even if some get rejected.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/sta...752374784?s=20

Also according to this, in Broward county, one of the most Dem leaning counties in FL, of the first 200K mail-in ballots, less than 400 had issues, some of which can be cured.

That's just one of many errors that can happen. They haven't opened the ballots yet; and won't until November 3rd. When they find two ballots in one envelope, mixed up ballots between spouses, ballots filled out incorrectly etc ... many more get axed.

There is a 100% chance that more Dem ballots get tossed then Republican ballots and there is a 100% chance that difference is in the hundreds of thousands. There can be no argument on this.

But your point is well taken that perhaps, the turnout will be far greater by mail thus increasing the Dem share of votes. We won't know that until we see the turnout on 11.3 but it is possible.

[NeedChapmans]

Originally Posted by CoolG

https://bookies.com/news/presidentia...-daily-tracker
Bet if you like it

Money coming in hard and fast on Trump (your tracker is very bad, bad site).

Biden -165
Trump +145