Rafael Devers

[SidVish]

Devers is off to a decent start. These are some of my faves.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by SidVish

Devers is off to a decent start. These are some of my faves.

That red ink…

*drool*

[pewe]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Here's what I've got for Devers prices;

Apr 2021: 180
June 2021: 265-One of only a handful of players up during this timeframe.
Nov 2021: 215
Apr 2022: 320
Today: ???, but I'm hitting them at $200 or less.

Average player was up ~20% between Nov 2021 and Apr 2022.

This is price for what?


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[pewe]

Originally Posted by SidVish

Devers is off to a decent start. These are some of my faves.

I’m still sad you outbid me for that gold BGS 8.5


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[soicanbefree]

Originally Posted by pewe

This is price for what?


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Probably his First Bowman Chrome Auto.

I think that's what he uses as his price index card.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

Probably his First Bowman Chrome Auto.

I think that's what he uses as his price index card.

Because Devers does not have a BCA, does this throw off the analysis?


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[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by pewe

This is price for what?


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Originally Posted by soicanbefree

Probably his First Bowman Chrome Auto.

I think that's what he uses as his price index card.

This is correct.

Originally Posted by pewe

Because Devers does not have a BCA, does this throw off the analysis?


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Devers does have a BCA...2015. I showed you one recently in this thread!

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Devers does have a BCA...2015. I showed you one recently in this thread!

Yes. He just doesn’t have a “1st Bowman” auto from 2014. So it’s not complete apples-to-apples comparison when compared to another player’s “1st Bowman” auto. This hobby love logos!

[SidVish]

Originally Posted by pewe

I’m still sad you outbid me for that gold BGS 8.5


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Just go look at all of your other Devers cards and you'll feel much better.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

This is correct.



Devers does have a BCA...2015. I showed you one recently in this thread!

I’m worried a flipper of common intellect for that species has a hard time understanding that not all BCA have a “1st Bowman” logo


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[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

Yes. He just doesn’t have a “1st Bowman” auto from 2014. So it’s not complete apples-to-apples comparison when compared to another player’s “1st Bowman” auto. This hobby love logos!

Originally Posted by pewe

I’m worried a flipper of common intellect for that species has a hard time understanding that not all BCA have a “1st Bowman” logo


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I swear pewe and I have had this conversation before;

If the the non-auto comes before the auto (Devers, Eloy), the auto behaves the same as a 1st.

If the auto comes before the non-auto (Yordan), the non-auto does better than a 2nd year prospect card, but not as well as a 1st.

If the 2nd prospect card accidentally gets stamped with a 1st (L.Garca), it performs better than a 2nd year, but not as well as a 1st. Garcia also fits in the 1st category with a 2017 1st and a 2018 auto, but the auto was accidentally stamped with a 1st.

If the 2nd prospect (Bowman Chrome and Draft only) comes in the same year as the 1st (Soto), it performs better than a non-1st, but not as well as a 1st.

For Devers specifically, pre-PSA deluge his 2018 stuff was right about where the BCA would predict. The market for the common stuff (ie RC refractors and base) has decoupled from the market for the BCA significantly over the last year. In Devers case it has decoupled less than average, but that, IMO, is because Devers was cold heading into 2020. He simply has/had less cards as a part of the backlog than say Yordan Alvarez. Eloy Jimenez, who also has a non-1st 1st auto has seen a normal decoupling (along with his BCA getting hammered!).

[pewe]

Lots and lots of wiffs tonight… pretty frustrating to watch


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[girv]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

That red ink…

*drool*

Double drool...need one of those in my Devers collection

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I swear pewe and I have had this conversation before;

If the the non-auto comes before the auto (Devers, Eloy), the auto behaves the same as a 1st.

If the auto comes before the non-auto (Yordan), the non-auto does better than a 2nd year prospect card, but not as well as a 1st.

If the 2nd prospect card accidentally gets stamped with a 1st (L.Garca), it performs better than a 2nd year, but not as well as a 1st. Garcia also fits in the 1st category with a 2017 1st and a 2018 auto, but the auto was accidentally stamped with a 1st.

If the 2nd prospect (Bowman Chrome and Draft only) comes in the same year as the 1st (Soto), it performs better than a non-1st, but not as well as a 1st.

For Devers specifically, pre-PSA deluge his 2018 stuff was right about where the BCA would predict. The market for the common stuff (ie RC refractors and base) has decoupled from the market for the BCA significantly over the last year. In Devers case it has decoupled less than average, but that, IMO, is because Devers was cold heading into 2020. He simply has/had less cards as a part of the backlog than say Yordan Alvarez. Eloy Jimenez, who also has a non-1st 1st auto has seen a normal decoupling (along with his BCA getting hammered!).

Yeah, I’m not disagreeing with any of this, I’m just saying that whatever the ‘15 BCA sells for now, it would be more if it was from ‘14 and on his 1st Bowman because people love that logo (and I don’t really blame them either).

[SleepyWill]

Odds that he will sign long term in Boston? Or, with Turner hitting 39 this year, will he head to LA to join Mookie. . .

[pewe]

Originally Posted by SleepyWill

Odds that he will sign long term in Boston? Or, with Turner hitting 39 this year, will he head to LA to join Mookie. . .

Fangraphs, thinking outside the box, proposes a 3-year $85mm contract that would allow him to hit the open market while still tearing it up in his 20s and attempt to extract dumb money from another team for the back half of his career

“Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox: Three years, $85 million

This one may be a challenge, though the Red Sox should certainly explore it. With the additional handicap of the juiceless ball placed on top of being a lefty power hitter in a park that’s tough on that type of player, the fact that Devers is hitting for even more power than last year is quite impressive. And with an $11.2 million contract for 2022 and just a year to go to free agency, he is highly incentivized to bet on himself, as Aaron Judge did this year (and, I’d argue, even more justified at the start of the season).

I don’t think the incentives are there to get a five- or six-year deal unless you pay Devers an absolute king’s ransom, since he’d then hit free agency for the first time in his 30s. So that leaves either a mega-deal or the Carlos Correa Gambit of giving a player a rich short-term deal that still allows him to hit the open market in his 20s. Devers already rejected a contract extension offer, so I asked ZiPS to come up with something of a different configuration than Boston likely did. ZiPS would “only” offer $225 million for the entire rest of Devers’ career, so if he does see himself in Fernando Tatis Jr.’s league, this may all be a moot point.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/more-you...ng-term-deals/


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[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

Yeah, I’m not disagreeing with any of this, I’m just saying that whatever the ‘15 BCA sells for now, it would be more if it was from ‘14 and on his 1st Bowman because people love that logo (and I don’t really blame them either).

Then you are disagreeing with me, because what I'm saying is his BCA would not go for more if it were 2014.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Then you are disagreeing with me, because what I'm saying is his BCA would not go for more if it were 2014.

Hmm… okay.

[NumberedCards]

Originally Posted by pewe

I’m worried a flipper of common intellect for that species has a hard time understanding that not all BCA have a “1st Bowman” logo

There is quite a drop off from 1st bowman autos and other 1st or 2nd year autos without the logo. I've never understood why one on-card auto is worth so much less than a slightly later variant. Yet again I also don't understand why PSA 10s for numbered cards / SPs are worth so much more than PSA 9s on the market either...

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by NumberedCards

There is quite a drop off from 1st bowman autos and other 1st or 2nd year autos without the logo. I've never understood why one on-card auto is worth so much less than a slightly later variant. Yet again I also don't understand why PSA 10s for numbered cards / SPs are worth so much more than PSA 9s on the market either...

Well, you have to remember that the card itself has value even before the auto goes on, and those value are different depending on the card.

[seanbros55]

3-3 already today…up to .352.

Unreal

[soicanbefree]

3/3 so far today... is that good??

Devers should be moving into #4 Spot on the 2022 fWAR leaderboard after today.

1 Manny Machado Padres 3B 194 3.4 3.4
2 Mookie Betts Dodgers RF 199 3.0 3.0
3 Mike Trout Angels CF 175 2.9 2.9
4 Aaron Judge Yankees CF 190 2.7 2.7
5 Kevin Gausman Blue Jays P 56.0 2.7 2.7
6 Rafael Devers Red Sox 3B 199 2.7 2.7

This has certainly been Devers year so far. He is showing the world who is the star of the 2018 class. Acuna, Soto, Torres, Albies.. only one still in the conversation at the moment is Ohtani.

[BabaORiley]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

3/3 so far today... is that good??

Devers should be moving into #4 Spot on the 2022 fWAR leaderboard after today.

1 Manny Machado Padres 3B 194 3.4 3.4
2 Mookie Betts Dodgers RF 199 3.0 3.0
3 Mike Trout Angels CF 175 2.9 2.9
4 Aaron Judge Yankees CF 190 2.7 2.7
5 Kevin Gausman Blue Jays P 56.0 2.7 2.7
6 Rafael Devers Red Sox 3B 199 2.7 2.7

This has certainly been Devers year so far. He is showing the world who is the star of the 2018 class. Acuna, Soto, Torres, Albies.. only one still in the conversation at the moment is Ohtani.

I'm not sure I'd write Soto and Acuna off just yet but Devers and Ohtani are the cream of the crop in '22... so far.

[pewe]

I continue to believe I’m bad luck… I was able to catch one at bat… he watched strike 3

At least he came back and got a 4th hit just now (I can only listen again)


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[pewe]

He’s definitely not enjoying game two of the series

Snapped that bat in anger

He definitely plays with his emotions on his sleeves


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